Baltimore Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday, the undisputed top prospect in baseball, is performing well in Double-A, and suddenly there's plenty of chatter about his big league debut.
While some top prospects go straight from that level to the big leagues (Nolan Schanuel, the Los Angeles Angels' first pick in this year's draft, debuted last week), that's probably not happening for Holliday this year.
But thanks to a rule in the new collective bargaining agreement that incentivizes teams to take the plunge and call up their best young players (and discourages them from service time manipulation), nine top prospects did make the jump to the big leagues last week. The change: If the eventual Rookie of the Year was on a club's Opening Day roster, the team gets a compensation pick at the end of the first round of the next year's draft. Last week was the earliest time a club could call a player up for good and not lose his 2024 ROY eligibility, so we saw Schanuel, Masyn Winn, Kyle Harrison, Noelvi Marte, Everson Pereira, Hunter Goodman, Lyon Richardson (who made a one-day MLB debut earlier in August), Parker Meadows and Wilyer Abreu all called up within a few days of each other.
For most of these guys, a 2023 call-up is just an extended warmup for a hopeful 2024 ROY campaign -- and MLB rosters expand to 28 players on Sept. 1, so teams will have two more spots to experiment with. Not all of those spots will go to prospects, but some certainly will, so let's break down the players who could have real short-term potential in the last month of the season -- and enough long-term ROY potential to justify the early reps.
1. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (AA)
If I'm handicapping 2024 ROY candidates who haven't played in the big leagues yet, Skenes is a clear No. 1. He's not the best prospect in baseball for me, but he's clearly in that top tier. His workload has been built up to where he won't be obviously limited in 2024, his first start in Double-A was really his first failure at any level, and pitchers get the luxury of dictating their action. Pitchers come with long-term risk due to injury and various forms of sudden ineffectiveness, but elite ones can be considered, in some cases, to have lower risk than comparable position players in the short term.
2. Colson Montgomery, SS, Chicago White Sox (AA)
Montgomery is in his own tier for me. He's my second-ranked prospect in baseball behind Holliday and he offers hit, approach, in-game power and real defensive value. He's also raking at Double-A and has more walks than strikeouts this season. There's some potential for a debut season similar to those of Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson, and there's plenty of margin for error in my evaluation given his wide base of skills.
3. Evan Carter, CF, Texas Rangers (AA)
4. Coby Mayo, 3B, Baltimore Orioles (AAA)
5. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks (AAA)
I'll group these guys together as I have varying degrees of trust in their hit/approach combo, enough to believe they'll hit the ground running in the big leagues, with enough power/defense to have ROY upside if it all clicks. Carter gets the nod as a hit-first center fielder with an excellent approach and enough power. Mayo might have the best hit/approach/power of this whole group but is just OK at third base, so his defensive WAR could take a hit if he ends up at other corner spots. Lawlar is a shortstop with a well-rounded skill set but questions around if he'll have a true plus tool.
6. James Wood, RF, Washington Nationals (AA)
7. Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays (AA)
8. Jackson Chourio, CF, Milwaukee Brewers (AA)
This is a group of players with perennial All-Star upside playing in Double-A, but they have enough questions around them that they may need another half season of polish to address some concerns. Wood is probably a corner outfielder and has all the elements to be something like Kyle Tucker, but he needs to lift the ball a bit more to get there. Junior Caminero has impact raw power, feel for contact and can play third base, but he still chases a little more than you'd like. Chourio is a plus runner who will play center field -- with arguably the most upside of this group -- but he's also the youngest of the group, not turning 20 until spring training next March, and chases the most.
9. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Chicago Cubs (AAA)
10. Jackson Merrill, SS, San Diego Padres (AA)
Here are two up-the-middle defenders with excellent bat-to-ball feel who still chase a bit more than you'd like, but not enough to ding their profiles (they're both still in their early 20's). PCA is a plus defender in center field whose in-game power has taken a step forward this season. He's also a year older and a level ahead of Merrill. Merrill is probably a shortstop with great contact rates and good power, but he might need another half-season in the minors. PCA should be ready soon.
11. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays (AA)
I'll give you a bonus eleventh player in Tiedemann, as he's the next best pitcher option behind Skenes. Tiedemann had a late start to the season due to biceps soreness so he's only thrown 26 2/3 innings, but he's the type who might need to go to higher levels to be challenged, like recently called-up San Francisco Giants LHP Kyle Harrison. Both are lower slot lefties with deception and multiple plus pitches who could easily be one- or two-inning fits in the big leagues right now, but they'll need to dial in their command to be able to turn over a lineup.
Others in the mix
There are a couple more archetypes of players below who need a little more performance this season, but could easily jump into the above ranking:
Brooks Lee, 3B, Minnesota Twins
Cade Horton, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Tyler Black, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
Colt Keith, 3B, Detroit Tigers
Dylan Crews, CF, Washington Nationals
Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco Giants
Orelvis Martinez, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
Heston Kjerstad, RF, Baltimore Orioles
Jasson Dominguez, CF, New York Yankees
Ronny Mauricio, SS, New York Mets
Ceddanne Rafaela, CF, Boston Red Sox
Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Cleveland Guardians
Jared Jones, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Austin Wells, C, New York Yankees
Connor Phillips, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Ben Brown, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Crews could torch Double-A and jump into the above mix by the end of the season. Horton is the best of the starters, with plus stuff in the upper minors since he hasn't run into command limitations. Those with questions on their command and ability to turn over a lineup include Jones, Phillips and Brown -- and some others not listed, such as Cade Povich and A.J. Smith-Shawver. The rest of the list is largely Top 100 prospect position players of different types performing well in Triple-A.