When Shohei Ohtani struck out Los Angeles Angels teammate Mike Trout to close out the World Baseball Classic, it was an iconic baseball moment and a full manifestation of all of the intangibles Ohtani bears -- the self-assuredness, the desire to dominate the greatest players. He's a natural showman, his broad grin belying well-earned competitive confidence. And as manager Phil Nevin said in conversation earlier this year: "He wants to be better at everything than anybody."
Late Wednesday night, the Angels announced that Ohtani will not pitch for the rest of the season, after he suffered an ulnar collateral ligament tear in his right elbow. Losing Ohtani for the rest of the baseball season is unfortunate for fans. But for the many teams lying in wait for Ohtani's upcoming free agency, it's even worse.
Front offices don't really invest in intangibles anymore. They create contract offers based on production, projecting what value players will provide in the future. Ohtani's injury has dramatically changed the context for these offers, because nobody knows what exactly he will generate as a pitcher. He's already had one Tommy John elbow reconstruction and is now facing a second major procedure.
Ohtani's free agency was already going to be the most interesting storyline of the offseason. Now it's even more fascinating, and there are consequences in almost every direction:
1. His contract ceiling just dropped significantly ...
On Monday morning, before Ohtani's injury, one longtime agent speculated that the goal for Ohtani's representation would be $600 million -- a hell of a benchmark, like when agent Scott Boras secured a $252 million contract for Alex Rodriguez in 2000. That was not only the biggest contract in baseball history but double the previous record in any sport, a $126 million deal signed by the NBA's Kevin Garnett just three years before.
In all likelihood, a deal guarantee of $600 million is off the table now, and perhaps so is $500 million. After news of the Ohtani injury broke, some industry sources speculated that offers to him might need to come in two parts: the payment for his offensive production -- which alone makes him one of the league's most valuable players -- and then a creative structure to compensate him for whatever he does as a pitcher. Good comps for Ohtani as hitter, some agents speculated, might be Bryce Harper ($335 million) and Giancarlo Stanton ($325 million); Ohtani, after all, is in the conversation as baseball's premier slugger. The pitching side of his contract could be a base salary with incentives tied to the number of starts or relief outings he makes.
2. ... but there are now more ways to build a role for him.
John Smoltz's name was being thrown around a lot in the industry Thursday morning as an example of an elite starting pitcher who transitioned into the role of shutdown closer. If Ohtani and his future employer want to reduce his workload as a pitcher, switching to the bullpen will always be an option. He could serve in the same role as he did for Team Japan in the WBC final -- doing damage as a hitter before entering as a late-inning reliever. In his early years in Japan, Ohtani played the outfield on his days off -- if pitching is off the table, perhaps he has interest in returning to the field full time.
3. The risk-averse Dodgers might no longer be an aggressive suitor ...
As the Los Angeles Dodgers passed on the best of the free agents last winter, instead signing J.D. Martinez and a small handful of others to one-year deals, the assumption in rival front offices was that L.A. was storing its financial ammunition to pursue Ohtani. Dodger players talked in the clubhouse in spring training about the looming chase, imagining a lineup of Ohtani batting among Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith.
But now Ohtani's future as a two-way player is uncertain, and part of the reason the Dodgers have been as successful as they have been is because Andrew Friedman, the team's head of baseball operations, has played conservatively in the market. Despite their high payroll, the Dodgers in recent years have been relatively risk-averse.
Friedman waited for Boston's options with Betts to dwindle before making a deal for the All-Star outfielder, and then signed him to a contract that includes a high percentage of deferred salary. The Dodgers didn't make an offer to Freeman until the Braves dropped out of the bidding, reducing the first baseman's negotiating leverage. In recent seasons, they have retained future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw with one-year deals.
Now that Ohtani's future as a pitcher is murky, the potential risk is heightened. It's too early to know how much this affects the Dodgers' enthusiasm for Ohtani, but Friedman has never paid for hype or been willing to spend big dollars on speculative investments.
4. ... but a return to the Angels could be more of a possibility
Arte Moreno kept Ohtani through the trade deadline because he believed it to be his best chance to retain the most dynamic, marketable player in the world into the future. If this Ohtani injury dampens the enthusiasm of other bidders, it could increase the likelihood he remains with the Angels.
Only Ohtani knows for sure what he's going to value once he reaches the open market. If his modus operandi in free agency is about winning, well, the Angels will be in trouble, because it appears they will miss the playoffs for the ninth consecutive year. But if Ohtani's decision is built around money, a preference for warm weather, and personal comfort, the Angels could have a real shot.
5. This clears the path for other upcoming free agents ...
Regardless of his pitching future, Ohtani will still be the headliner of the upcoming market this winter, because of the damage he does at the plate and because he's the biggest available star. But teams like the Dodgers probably can't look at Ohtani as a front-line rotation option anymore. In the aftermath of the Ohtani injury, the best available starting pitchers might be Julio Urias, the Dodgers lefty who had better results lately in what has been a down year, and Michael Lorenzen, the right-hander acquired by the Philadelphia Phillies.
If the Ohtani injury impacts the interest of the Dodgers, the San Francisco Giants, the Seattle Mariners -- maybe even the Angels -- it could free up money for other targets.
6. ... but shuts it down for future two-way players.
When Ohtani joined the Angels, the industry speculation was that his emergence could fuel a wave of two-way players. With fuller context on Ohtani available -- two major elbow injuries complicating his time in Major League Baseball --- it might be that teams are more likely to push young two-way candidates to hitting or to pitching.
At his best, Ohtani has been the greatest all-around player the sport has ever seen. Even with the benefit of hindsight, no one would question his decision to try to do both. But during his time with the Angels, staffers and front office executives have wondered how he could sustain the work required to be an elite hitter and pitcher -- and all things considered, it's hard to see whether he has, after missing a significant amount of time even as the Angels deferred rotation scheduling to him. Even with his incredible athleticism and drive, the two-way path has been fraught with potholes for much of Ohtani's tenure with the team. Would another team be willing to risk it -- particularly for a player without such otherworldly talent?