The 2023 MLB trade deadline has passed. The major moves of the season have been made. Teams will still tweak their rosters with call-ups and waiver claims. There will even be a handful of trades, as some minor leaguers can still be dealt. Mostly though, we can now declare that teams are what they are.
Through Wednesday's games, 20 of the 30 teams still had better than a one in 10 shot at the postseason, per my simulations. The teams in that group have a wide range of probabilities. The Atlanta Braves made the postseason in all 10,000 sims during my latest run; the New York Yankees made it just 1,241 times (or 12.4%). So while some teams have rosier outlooks than others, there is much left to be settled over the last two months of the regular season.
As always, a lot of players changed teams in the days and weeks before the deadline, as clubs clamored to fix as many roster flaws as possible. But only so many upgrades were available, and no teams got everything they wanted. Now teams will have to get creative when it comes to papering over underperforming positions and filling out the depth chart where a key injury has struck.
Let's run through some of these lingering roster holes of greatest potential impact on the playoff races. As I did last year at this time, I note each team's season-to-date performance at a spot (by baseball-reference.com's positional WAR) and rest-of-season forecast (per FanGraphs).
I'll also preview some potential solutions for these problem spots now that we know a major trade is not going to fix things.
Houston Astros
Problem position: Catcher (24th season to date, 29th rest of season)
Little by little, the 2023 Astros have come to resemble the team we've seen as a playoff fixture. That certainly seems true now that Houston has reacquired Justin Verlander. Those of us who have become accustomed to ending every baseball season in Houston, might want to start booking hotel reservations.
Yet, there is no doubt that these Astros have a smaller margin for error than Houston clubs of recent vintage. Even with their midseason rise to the cusp of first place in the AL West, Houston is on pace to record a modest plus-92 run differential this season. That works out to 0.57 runs per game, a figure that is less than half of every Astros club since Houston won the 2017 World Series, with the exception of the pandemic season.
During the 2017 to 2023 window, which we might refer to as the Astros Era (even if many would not admit that), Houston's .781 overall OPS is a hair's breadth behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best mark in the majors. But the Astros catchers during this time have hit .213/.294/.378 for a .672 OPS that ranks 23rd in the majors. This season, Astros catchers have been worse than usual with the stick, slashing at .212/.265/.387.
Now, I'm lumping all the Astros catchers together but there is a good reason I'm about to stop doing that.
Martin Maldonado has never been a good hitter. He owns a 70 OPS+ compiled in nearly 3,600 career plate appearances. The Astros are well aware of this, of course, and have always selected catchers for defense. They've won a lot of games doing this.
Here's the thing: The Astros have not had an option to turn the bulk of their backstop time over to a catcher with hitting numbers like Yainer Diaz has put up.
We know Astros pitchers love working with Maldonado, who just caught his third no-hitter for the team when he teamed up with Framber Valdez during Tuesday's 93-pitch gem. Still, while we know that catcher ERA/batter-against numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt, we can observe Houston's pitchers have actually performed a little better with Diaz behind the plate.
We know Maldonado will keep getting the majority of playing time. He's the only Astros catcher to receive Valdez this season and was Verlander's primary catcher in 2022. But maybe, just maybe, Dusty Baker might want to mix Diaz in to work with his aces a few times. Just to see how it works out. That added offense would be nice.
San Francisco Giants
Problem position: Center field (24th season to date; 22nd rest of season)
Really, the problem for the Giants is offense from their outfielders in general. They move players around so much it's hard to pinpoint who the regulars are. The Giants' team OPS from left fielders (.631) ranks dead last in the majors.
Still, the Giants have gotten good defensive production from their left fielders, which is why center shows up as the bigger issue in terms of team rankings. It really doesn't matter which spot you want to highlight: San Francisco needs offense from its outfielders.
The Giants made one acquisition for this group at the deadline, adding veteran AJ Pollock in an under-the-radar swap with the Seattle Mariners. Pollock looked completely spent in Seattle, where he slashed .173/.225/.323. Thus, expectations for him should be tempered. Nevertheless, it would be in character for the Giants to spot something in his swing or approach, tweak it and get him bashing lefties like it was 2015. He OPS'd .935 against southpaws last season.
A key factor for the Giants outfield is health. There is a lot of upside in rookie outfielder Luis Matos, who hits lefties well and has been starting in center. But San Francisco is going to keep platooning and subbing and playing matchups so it needs the best possible options.
The Giants have gotten nothing from the offseason Mitch Haniger signing. He fractured his arm in June and was recently cleared to resume baseball activities. His return later this month would be a major boost for San Francisco down the stretch. Mike Yastrzemski just went on the IL with a hamstring issue, and the Giants need to get him back as well.
The ideal outcome for the Giants would be for Matos to settle in now that he's getting consistent playing time and start to mash. He OPS'd .972 across two levels of the minors this season before being promoted, so we know he should hit ... eventually. That would solve the production problem in center while keeping Matos' needed athleticism in the mix.
On the corners, a rotation of lefty-swingers Michael Conforto and Yastrzemski paired with righty-swingers Haniger and either Pollock or Slater would give the outfield a more focused look. But it really comes down to Matos and hoping his bat comes alive.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Problem position: Third base (20th season to date; 26th rest of season)
Arizona juggled things at this position at the deadline, shipping Josh Rojas to Seattle and acquiring Jace Peterson from Oakland. Both are lefty-swinging, multiposition infielders, though Arizona's biggest need is a player to seize the heavy part of a third-base platoon. Right now, it appears Peterson will get a chance to do that.
Rojas is a better hitter than Peterson but the latter is a vastly superior defender. Both are good base stealers, and even though Peterson is four years older, he's more efficient on the bases. GM Mike Hazen appears to be all-in on defense for the role. This fits with the general dynamic of this year's Diamondbacks, who currently rate as the majors' top defensive team in my system and are third in the majors in stolen bases.
Veteran Evan Longoria entered the season as the presumed regular at the hot corner. He's on the IL with a back problem. The 37-year-old Longoria hasn't hit righties for two years (.213/.292/.438). While he continues to do damage against lefties (.891 OPS this season), so does Emmanuel Rivera (.855).
Rivera has been red-hot lately, and before he went on the shelf, Longoria was not hot. Longoria was already DHing a lot and that's likely to continue when he gets back.
Arizona's best options for an uptick in hot corner production don't seem to involve Longoria. That would have sounded surprising if written three months ago, but there is a lot about the D-backs that has been surprising. Besides, if he can get healthy, Longoria will get his chances to contribute in some role down the stretch.
Boston Red Sox
Problem position: Second base (28th season to date; 22nd rest of season)
Shortstop has also been a sore spot for the Red Sox, but Trevor Story nearing his return provides the solution.
The onus is really on manager Alex Cora and the Red Sox's game-planning staff to find the right combination at this spot. There are and have been lots of options, which have included the occasional Justin Turner appearance. Christian Arroyo has gotten much of the time recently but his season numbers are tepid. Same is true for Pablo Reyes, who is hitting .296 but doesn't walk or have any pop.
The Red Sox did not do much at the deadline but they did add a second-base option in Luis Urias. And if Urias can find his way at the plate, he will be an ideal solution. He's an excellent defender. When he's playing well, he features a patience and power combo at the plate and a swing that should play well at Fenway Park.
But Urias has not been right this season, and the rapidity with which he went from being a fixture in Milwaukee to being offloaded to Boston was startling. Early-season hamstring issues landed Urias on the 60-day IL. When he's played, he just has not gotten a foothold at the dish, hitting .145/.299/.236 in the majors and .233/.345/.379 in Triple-A.
He's still a good player, or he should be, since Urias is only 26. The Red Sox are starting him at Triple-A Worcester, which makes sense. But if they can get him rolling, he could play a big part in Boston's playoff push.
Philadelphia Phillies
Problem position: Left field (26th season to date; 21st rest of season)
This is Kyle Schwarber's spot. Look, I like Schwarber and always have. He's fun to watch and a great guy in the clubhouse. He's produced again and again in high-stakes situations. But he's also the kind of player who drives me nuts. He's hitting .181! Schwarber has 27 homers, 31 singles, 80 walks and an NL-high 142 strikeouts this season.
All said, Schwarber's bat isn't the problem or the reason why the Phillies' metrics in left field are so poor. Schwarber once again has posted some of the worst defensive metrics in the game. That's not hyperbole. His minus-17 defensive runs saved is the worst figure among MLB left fielders -- and the second-worst is minus-8! He's at minus-15 in outs above average, also by far the worst at the position.
But things have evolved in Philly so that this might not be a problem going forward. We've already seen the answer in a handful of games. Rob Thomson just needs to roll with it.
The answer: Keep Schwarber at DH, full time, full stop. There is no good reason not to.
The Phillies can get away with this for a couple of reasons. The big one of course is that not only has Bryce Harper moved beyond the need to DH every day because of his move to first base, he's actually played first base really well. I guess I shouldn't be surprised by this, but when I saw Harper working out at the spot during Philadelphia's visit to Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago this summer, I thought he looked a little rough. When I've watched the Phillies recently, I've thought Harper has looked more like a solid first baseman.
Meanwhile, the Phillies can create an skilled, slick-fielding rotation in left and center of Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and, when he returns from the IL, Cristian Pache. Suddenly, the Phillies' overall outfield defense morphs into a plus.
Finally, just food for thought: Schwarber's career OPS while playing left field is .824. In 386 career plate appearances as a DH, his OPS is .825.