If you came away from the 2023 MLB trade deadline wishing there were more stars on the move, here's a suggestion: Shift your focus to the injured list.
The vast majority of teams stayed conservative ahead of Tuesday's 6 p.m. ET deadline, opting against making aggressive decisions in one direction or the other largely because of the uncertainty caused by an expanded playoff field. In many cases, though, teams were also banking on a return of some impact players -- at a time when injuries are dominating the baseball landscape.
The 2023 season was 124 days old by the end of July, and already there had been 610 stints on the injured list. That's the third-most through that many days in the last 40 years, according to ESPN Stats & Information. The two years ahead of it: 2021 and 2022. The two years behind it: 2018 and 2017. A lot of that might be a function of the shorter 10-day IL, which teams often exploit for roster maneuverability. But once again there have been a plethora of big names who have suffered major injuries this summer.
Many of them have either come back recently or will do so in the near future, perhaps providing a greater impact on the standings than any player who was traded in recent days.
Here are 10 of the most important.
Players who can secure a pennant
Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers
Expected return date: Sometime in September. Buehler is in the late stages of recovery from his second Tommy John surgery, which occurred seven years after his first. He has been throwing bullpen sessions in Arizona and could soon progress to facing hitters. Buehler's previously stated goal was to return as a full-fledged member of the Dodgers' starting rotation on the first day of September. And though club officials deemed that to be overly optimistic -- he'd barely be 12 months removed from getting his ulnar collateral ligament replaced at that point -- they were also hesitant to doubt him. Last week, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts called getting Buehler back in some capacity before the end of the regular season "a viable possibility."
What he means to the team: The Dodgers are somehow in first place in the National League West -- with the sport's fourth-highest run-differential, no less -- despite a mess of a starting rotation. Julio Urias has been up and down, Dustin May has been lost for the year, Noah Syndergaard was practically un-pitchable before getting traded and Clayton Kershaw has been on the injured list with a shoulder injury for the last five weeks. Kershaw, pitching like a legitimate Cy Young candidate before going down, could return within a matter of days. And if Buehler can tap back into his prior form, the Dodgers could suddenly boast a dynamic top of the rotation heading into October. Buehler has already established himself as one of the most prolific postseason performers in franchise history. His presence could change everything.
Expected return date: Friday against the Chicago Cubs. Fried, out since early May with a forearm strain, threw 79 pitches and recorded 13 outs for the Braves' Triple-A affiliate on Saturday. It was his fourth and likely final rehab start. Fried allowed five runs on 11 hits, two of them homers, in a combined 7⅔ innings in his two appearances with the Gwinnett Stripers. But all that matters is that he is seemingly healthy. "Physically I feel great," Fried told reporters Wednesday night. "Now it's just about going out there and continuing to get sharp, locate pitches and try to win baseball games."
What he means to the team: It's amazing, given their dominance, that the Braves have received only five starts from one of their best pitchers. Fried, who also missed some time with a groin strain he suffered on Opening Day, finished second in NL Cy Young Award voting last year. In his first 26 innings this year, he was charged with only six earned runs. The 29-year-old left-hander is one of the sport's best pitchers when healthy, and it's scary to think about how he might impact these Braves. Atlanta leads the majors in winning percentage, run differential, OPS and home runs. Now Fried will join a staff that includes Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder, a trio that has combined for a 3.47 ERA in 64 starts.
Players who can decide a division
Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
Expected return date: Possibly Aug. 20 against the Toronto Blue Jays. Greene had been battling discomfort in his hips for a few weeks and finally landed on the injured list around the middle of June. Less than six weeks later, on July 28, Greene threw live batting practice and pumped his fastball up to 99 mph. On Tuesday, he threw two scoreless innings with the team's Arizona Complex League club. A couple more starts in the minor leagues should be enough for him to make his way back.
What he means to the team: The Reds are young and exciting and dynamic. But they could badly use the type of boost Greene is capable of providing. Their bullpen has absorbed the seventh-most innings in the major leagues. Six of their relievers -- Alexis Diaz, Buck Farmer, Ian Gibaut, Lucas Sims, Alex Young and the newly acquired Sam Moll -- have made at least 45 appearances already. And their two most relied-upon starting pitchers, Graham Ashcraft and Luke Weaver, have combined for a 5.98 ERA in 38 starts. Greene, who had a 3.93 ERA and 100 strikeouts in 73⅓ innings before going down, could join forces with an impressive Andrew Abbott and change the outlook of the Reds' rotation for the stretch run. So might lefty Nick Lodolo, who could return from his leg injury before the end of August.
Expected return date: Probably before the end of this week. Urquidy had been out since the start of May with inflammation in his pitching shoulder, but his return is nigh. Urquidy has completed four rehab starts, the last of which saw him throw 76 pitches on Sunday, and should be activated off the injured list in the coming days. Earlier this week, Urquidy said he felt as if the quality of his pitches was the same as it had been while posting a 3.81 ERA in 271⅓ innings from 2021 to 2022.
What he means to the team: Justin Verlander, acquired from the New York Mets on Tuesday, will have the biggest impact, of course. But don't overlook the return of Urquidy, which should come less than two weeks after the simultaneous activation of two of their best hitters, Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve. The Astros have been navigating through the season without three-fifths of their expected rotation. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia have been lost for the year, but Urquidy's impending return makes the Astros' rotation look quite deep down the stretch. In Verlander, Urquidy, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, J.P. France and Framber Valdez, who threw a no-hitter on Tuesday, the Astros will boast six capable starters for the final two months of the regular season. It's the type of depth that helped win them a World Series last fall.
Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers
Expected return date: Perhaps as early as Sunday against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Woodruff made only two starts -- two excellent ones, mind you -- before experiencing what was later diagnosed as a sub-scapular strain in his right shoulder. It left him rehabbing for the better part of the next four months. But now Woodruff is on the cusp of his return. He made his third rehab start on Tuesday, throwing 72 pitches for the Brewers' Triple-A affiliate in Nashville, Tennessee. His next start could come in the major leagues, for a Brewers team fighting to stay atop a relatively inferior NL Central.
What he means to the team: The Brewers added some power before the trade deadline, acquiring Mark Canha from the Mets and Carlos Santana from the Pirates. But their biggest additions are coming to the rotation, with Wade Miley returning on Wednesday and Woodruff following shortly thereafter. Woodruff and Corbin Burnes combined for a 2.73 ERA in 835 innings from 2020 to 2022, forming one of the best rotation duos in the sport. Burnes got off to a rough start this year but dominated in July, posting a 1.85 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 39 innings. If Woodruff returns to form -- a tall order given both his injury and the extent of his absence, but not impossible -- it might be enough for Milwaukee to hold on for a division title.
Players who can shake up the wild-card race
Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miami Marlins
Expected return date: Just got back. Chisholm was activated off the IL on Monday, after missing almost the entire month of July with an oblique strain. The 25-year-old is widely considered a budding superstar, but he has been on the IL six times since his first full season in 2021, most notably for the entire second half last year. This time, the Marlins wasted no time getting Chisholm back. His rehab stint in Jupiter, Florida, lasted three plate appearances. The next day, he was back in the major leagues, starting in center field -- a position he has taken to well this season -- and batting cleanup.
What he means to the team: The Marlins have elevated themselves as legitimate contenders this season, thanks in large part to the offseason acquisition of Luis Arraez and the resurgence of Jorge Soler. But they need more offense, a glaring issue over the last few years in Miami. Chisholm is the type of player who can spark their lineup. He was slashing only .246/.302/.443 when he got hurt for the second time this season, down from his .254/.325/.535 mark from last year. But the thought with Chisholm has often been that there's more in there, and that he just needs consistent playing time in order to tap into it. The stretch run of 2023 would be the perfect time for him to finally reach his potential. The Marlins, who made win-now moves in acquiring Jake Burger, Josh Bell and David Robertson before the trade deadline, went 9-12 without Chisholm in July. They need a spark.
Hyun Jin Ryu, Toronto Blue Jays
Expected return date: Just got back. Ryu made his return from Tommy John surgery in a start against the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday and got roughed up a bit, giving up four runs on nine hits in five innings. It marked the end of a 14-month process for the 36-year-old left-hander. Ryu made four minor league rehab starts and was sharp throughout, giving up only four runs in 18 innings while issuing just one walk. He got all the way up to six innings in the last of those appearances and is not expected to have any restrictions moving forward.
What he means to the team: The Blue Jays have too many starting pitchers now, if you can believe that. Ryu's return is prompting them to go with a six-man rotation at least for the near future -- and that is a welcome development for Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi, who had to carry the load while Ryu recovered and Alek Manoah worked out his issues in the minor leagues. Four starts into his return, Manoah has at least shown signs of improvement after an awful start to his season. Berrios is experiencing a dramatic turnaround from last season. Gausman has pitched like an ace. And Kikuchi and Bassitt have been solid. Ryu takes the Blue Jays' staff to yet another level at a time when they're fighting within a crowded AL wild-card race. It's probably wise not to put too much stock into his first outing back against Baltimore's dynamic offense.
Expected return date: Perhaps next week. Story underwent an internal bracing procedure of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow in early January, about a month after the man he was expected to replace, Xander Bogaerts, was lost to free agency. But Story is finally nearing the tail end of his recovery. The initial hope was to activate him for Friday's game against the Blue Jays, but that has been pushed back a tad. He should return at some point before the Red Sox wrap their 10-game homestand on Aug. 13, however. Story -- signed to a six-year, $140 million contract in March of 2022 -- also missed about a month and a half last season with what was later diagnosed as a hairline fracture in his right wrist.
What he means to the team: Red Sox shortstops have combined to produce a .599 OPS this season. Only the lowly Oakland Athletics have produced a lower mark. Story, a two-time Silver Slugger, will no doubt improve that. But he'll only do so dramatically if he can regain the form he displayed down the stretch in 2022. Story slashed .340/.389/.500 in his final 13 games after returning from his wrist injury last season, putting a positive end to what had been a miserable first season in Boston. That's the guy the Red Sox need if they hope to overcome the odds and earn a playoff berth in a crowded AL. The return of starting pitcher Chris Sale, who could be back from a stress reaction in his left shoulder in a week or two, might be just as big a boost.
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Expected return date: Mid to late August. Trout fractured the hamate bone in his left hand on a swing on July 3, undergoing surgery two days later. A typical recovery timeline for that injury is six to eight weeks. Trout was taking dry swings right before the end of July, and the Angels will gradually add a little more to his plate in hopes of getting him back as quickly as possible. He'll probably have to play through some pain initially, but he is nonetheless eager to return. Trout has missed significant time to injury each of the last three years.
What he means to the team: The Angels have put everything into this year, potentially their last one with Shohei Ohtani. And while Trout has been on the mend, the team has fought hard in hopes of remaining in contention. A brutal stretch in which the Angels lost 11 of 13 games has been followed by 10 wins in a span of 15 games. The front office, swayed by the team's hot stretch, proceeded to pull Ohtani off the table and make win-now trades, acquiring four rentals in Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk. But the Angels badly need the three-time MVP back in their lineup. Without Trout, Ohtani was intentionally walked nine times in the month of July. The return of Logan O'Hoppe and Anthony Rendon will help, too, but Trout has continued to prove he's one of the two or three best players in the world when he's out on the field. He just needs to get back there.
Players who can ... make an anemic offense seem competent
Expected return date: Just got back. Judge jammed his right big toe against an unpadded concrete strip below the right-field fence at Dodger Stadium on June 3, penetrating the bullpen door while making a spectacular catch. The injury wound up being more severe than initially anticipated. He was ultimately diagnosed with a torn ligament and missed nearly eight weeks, gradually building up baseball activities before finally getting activated in Baltimore on Friday -- and not a moment too soon. The ligament, Judge said upon returning, is stable. But the Yankees will be cautious, as evidenced by them sitting him with the series on the line the following Sunday.
What he means to the team: Judge should finish second to Ohtani in American League MVP voting simply because of how the Yankees looked in his absence. When he went down, they were 10 games above .500 and 2½ games up on the final AL wild-card spot. They then proceeded to go 19-23 in his absence, dropping to 2½ games behind in the wild-card race. As a unit, the offense slashed .220/.296/.374 without Judge, producing the fourth-lowest OPS in the sport. It would be unfair to label Judge a savior, but he's also the reigning MVP. And he was OPS'ing 1.078 with 19 home runs in 49 games when he got hurt. ESPN's Bradford Doolittle calculated estimated win changes for each of these returning players, and Judge was unsurprisingly projected to have the greatest impact. Doolittle's model had him contributing an additional 2.06 wins and 22.4 runs down the stretch -- the latter number nearly three times more than any other position player on this list. The Yankees will get starter Nestor Cortes back this weekend and could get reliever Jonathan Loaisiga back next week, but nobody can make an impact like Judge.