We're closing in on the halfway point of the season, and the Rays, Rangers and Diamondbacks are still taking the majors by storm. Each team sits at the top of its division, ahead of historic powerhouses such as the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers.
Yes, there's still a lot of time left in the regular season and a lot can change in three-plus months, but the playoff field has begun to take shape. So, let's take a look at the top postseason contenders and what has put them in a potential position to play in October.
We'll look at the 13 teams that, entering Sunday, had at least a 50% chance of making the postseason, according to the playoff odds at FanGraphs.
Tier I: 70% or better playoff odds
Tampa Bay Rays (99.3%)
Biggest strength: Offensive depth
The Rays lead the American League in home runs, batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, adjusted OPS and stolen bases -- and they're doing it with production from everyone. The only regulars with a below-average OPS are the two catchers and second baseman Brandon Lowe, who is on the injured list. Yandy Diaz has been the anchor with a wRC+ (weighted runs created, which adjusts for home park) that ranks third in the majors behind only Shohei Ohtani and Yordan Alvarez, and teammate Randy Arozarena also ranks in the top 10.
Even more impressively, as a team the Rays are at 128 wRC+. The five highest team totals since the divisional era began in 1969 (not including 2020):
2019 Houston Astros: 124
2017 Houston Astros: 121
1976 Cincinnati Reds: 120
1982 Milwaukee Brewers: 120
2003 Boston Red Sox: 120
Four of those five teams reached the World Series, with the Red Sox losing in the ALCS.
Can they keep it up? Probably not. If you look at those above lineups, they're full of Hall of Famers and MVP candidates: The Astros had Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and George Springer and added Alvarez in 2019; the famous Big Red Machine had Joe Morgan, Johnny Bench, Tony Perez, Pete Rose and George Foster; the Brewers had Robin Yount and Paul Molitor; the Red Sox had David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez. The Rays don't have anyone with the type of résumé those players had.
Atlanta Braves (99.1%)
Biggest strength: Power
The Braves lead the majors in home runs, battling the Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers for that honor. They already have seven players in double figures. Given we're not quite at the halfway point, that gives the Braves seven players on pace for 20-plus home runs, and Michael Harris II is certainly capable of smashing 15 the rest of the way now that he's finally hitting after a slow start. The only team with eight 20-homer hitters is the 2019 Twins, who set the MLB record with 307 home runs. The Braves are doing this without help from their home park; they've actually homered more often on the road.
Can they keep it up? Absolutely. The Braves were second to the New York Yankees in home runs last season, third in the majors in 2021 and second in 2020. Nobody is even really playing exceptionally right now -- and Harris and Austin Riley are good bets to hit for more power in the second half.
Los Angeles Dodgers (84.7%)
Biggest strength: Star players
By star players we don't mean the pitching staff -- at least other than Clayton Kershaw -- because this Dodgers team doesn't resemble teams of recent years. The Dodgers have led the National League in fewest runs allowed six seasons in a row. That's not going to happen in 2023, as they currently rank in the bottom half of the league, and Julio Urias, Dustin May and Noah Syndergaard are all on the IL, along with a bunch of relievers.
The stars leading the way are Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and the underrated Will Smith. Freeman is continuing on what looks more and more like a path to Cooperstown, ranking among the league leaders in numerous offensive categories, including doubles (he has finished three seasons with the lead in that category). He should be headed to a sixth straight top-10 MVP finish as well. Betts has once again displayed his all-around brilliance and is in the top five in fWAR, along with Freeman, among all position players. Smith, who has more walks than strikeouts, looks likely to earn his first All-Star appearance. Those three players, along with Kershaw and Tony Gonsolin, account for more than a third of the team's total WAR.
Can they keep it up? Absolutely. Freeman's consistency has been remarkable, and he shows no signs of slowing down at 33 years old. Betts has improved his walk rate from recent seasons, is posting his highest OBP since joining the Dodgers and remains a likely Gold Glover in right field (while filling in at shortstop or second base as needed). Smith has never picked up even a down-ballot MVP vote, but he could be headed for a top-10 finish, as well, if he maintains his .900-plus OPS.
Texas Rangers (76.1%)
Biggest strength: Hitting with runners in scoring position
When we reeled off all those categories the Rays lead the AL in, we didn't mention runs scored -- and that's because the Rangers lead the way, averaging a ridiculous 6.11 runs per game. Only four teams in the divisional era have averaged six runs per game:
1. 1999 Cleveland Indians: 6.23
2. 1996 Seattle Mariners: 6.17
3. 2000 Chicago White Sox: 6.04
4. 1994 Cleveland Indians: 6.01
The Rangers certainly have a potent attack, leading the majors in batting average and ranking in the top 10 in home runs, but they've also relied on a .315 average with runners in scoring position. Leading the way: Corey Seager (.486), Jonah Heim (.421), Marcus Semien (.420), Travis Jankowski (.344) and Adolis Garcia (.338).
Can they keep it up? Extremely unlikely. The only team in the divisional era to hit better than .315 with RISP is the 2013 Cardinals, who hit .330. Next on the list are the 2000 Rockies and 2007 Tigers at .311. A few others are above .300, although all came in that 1994-2008 era when leaguewide averages were much higher than now (except the 2020 Padres, who hit .310 in the COVID-19-shortened season). So it's doable, but regression is likely. The Rangers have one player higher than .425, as well as another two hovering around that mark; since 1969, only 12 players have done that over an entire season (minimum 100 PAs with RISP).
Minnesota Twins (74.0%)
Biggest strength: Starting rotation
The Twins certainly aren't on the level of the teams listed above, but FanGraphs doesn't think much of their competition in the AL Central and gives them big odds to win the division. The main reason to believe in the Twins: Their starters, in very unlike-Twins fashion, are striking batters out. Minnesota has the second-highest strikeout rate among starters behind only Tampa Bay, with Pablo Lopez (29.2%), Joe Ryan (27.1%), Sonny Gray (24.8%) and Bailey Ober (24.2%) all showing improvement from last season -- when the Twins ranked 20th in strikeout rate. Impressively, Minnesota also has the second-lowest walk rate among starters. That's pretty good!
Can they keep it up? Sure. Strikeout and walk rates stabilize pretty early within a season, so assuming good health (which hasn't been the case, with Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda on the IL), they'll keep it going. Rookie Louie Varland is the weak spot as the fifth starter, but he has been acceptable and throws strikes -- and the Twins have other issues that might need upgrading at the trade deadline.
Arizona Diamondbacks (73.3%)
Biggest strength: Corbin Carroll
OK, so the Diamondbacks are getting contributions across the board: Geraldo Perdomo is hitting around .300 and drawing walks, Ketel Marte has been healthy and productive, Christian Walker is hitting for power and driving in runs and Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly have been a terrific 1-2 punch (a combined 16-5 with a 2.99 ERA). But Carroll is the engine that drives everything, and he looks more and more like a BMW S70/2. It's no coincidence that the Diamondbacks have surged past the Dodgers as Carroll has been lighting up the box scores lately. From May 28 to June 13, he hit .414/.485/.914 with seven home runs and 18 RBIs in 15 games as the Diamondbacks went 12-3. He's not just the clear Rookie of the Year at this point but an MVP candidate, too.
Can he keep it up? The first round of adjustments favored Carroll as he improved his walk rate after an aggressive approach the first few weeks. We'll see how the league adjusts, but this is clearly a special player. The only rookies to win MVP were Fred Lynn in 1975 and Ichiro Suzuki in 2001, and I'm giving Carroll a chance to become the third. He's the real deal.
TIER II: 60-70% chance of making the playoffs
New York Yankees (67.8%)
Biggest strength: Bullpen
Think of everything that has gone wrong for the Yankees so far: Carlos Rodon has yet to pitch; Aaron Judge has missed a chunk of games and might be out another several weeks; Nestor Cortes, a 2022 All-Star, is on the IL with a 5.11 ERA; Gerrit Cole is the only starter with an ERA under 4.00; Anthony Volpe and Oswaldo Cabrera are both hitting under .200; Giancarlo Stanton has missed nearly 50 games; DJ LeMahieu has a sub-.300 OBP. This team should be eight games under .500, not eight games over.
The key has been a bullpen that leads the majors with a 2.89 ERA. Manager Aaron Boone takes a lot of abuse from Yankees fans, but he has done a great job with the bullpen (not to mention a lineup that has featured Jake Bauers and Willie Calhoun in important roles of late). Clay Holmes, Wandy Peralta and Michael King have been the three main guys, but seven pitchers have earned saves.
Can they keep it up? I think so, although the pen hasn't necessarily been quite as dominant as the ERA suggests. Yankees relievers are middle of the pack in the majors in strikeout rate and walk rate -- although they've been stingy with the home run and have the highest ground ball rate. So, maybe it's a little unconventional from a power/strikeout bullpen, but these relievers have done the job.
Toronto Blue Jays (60.9%)
Biggest strength: Defense
Looking at the defensive runs saved metric, the Blue Jays lead the majors at plus-37, just above the Rangers, Brewers and Rays. This makes sense as the Jays made it a point to upgrade the outfield defense in particular with the offseason additions of Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho (and the subtraction of Lourdes Gurriel Jr.).
Bo Bichette's metrics are also much improved, from minus-16 in 2022 to plus-2 ... although I'm a little skeptical it has been that good after reading the Jays Journal site that includes the headlines "Bo Bichette's awful defense continues to cost Blue Jays wins" (May 10) and "Bo Bichette's defense still isn't great, but it is much improved of late" (June 8). Overall, the Jays' batting average allowed on balls in play is lower than last season's .297, so even adjusted for the small uptick overall in batting average, the Jays are turning a few more balls in play into outs.
Can they keep it up? Defensive metrics are a little murky to begin with. No doubt a defense with Kiermaier, Varsho and Matt Chapman is probably saving some hits. Turning to Statcast, the Jays have allowed a lower wOBA on contact compared with an expected mark of .393 -- again, a suggestion that the defense has at least been good and should remain solid. But the path to an AL East title, however unlikely, lies in getting more power from the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. & Co.
Tier III: 50-60% chance of making the playoffs
Houston Astros (58.4%)
Biggest strength: Top of the rotation
This one is pretty clear. Jose Abreu has struggled; Alex Bregman is pretty clearly no longer the hitter he was at his 2018-19 peak; the Astros get little production from their catchers; and now Yordan Alvarez is injured. In other words, the offense is much diminished -- and it wasn't a powerhouse offense even when it won the World Series last season. The bullpen, so dominant a year ago and especially in October (0.83 ERA in 54⅓ innings), has been good, but not as good, with Rafael Montero and Ryne Stanek struggling a bit.
That leaves the rotation, which has so far survived the loss of Justin Verlander as Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and rookie Hunter Brown have combined to go 19-9 with a 2.81 ERA. The Astros can match up that trio against any threesome in the majors -- and Javier hasn't even gone on a roll yet, like the one he had late last season when he posted a 1.33 ERA over his final nine starts, including five scoreless outings.
Can they keep it up? You certainly have to believe in Valdez and Javier, who are proven front-line starters by now. Brown is obviously less proven and, as with any rookie, let's see what happens as the innings start to pile up in the second half. The problem here is the depth: Lance McCullers Jr. is out for the season and Jose Urquidy is out until mid-July, so the Astros are relying on the likes of J.P. France and Brandon Bielak.
San Francisco Giants (58.3%)
Biggest strength: Mix-and-match offense
After going 11-16 in April, the Giants have slowly climbed the standings and suddenly look like strong playoff contenders. They've gone 28-16 since then, including 11-4 in June with an impressive plus-45 run differential that includes four games of 10 or more runs. Sunday's 7-2 win over the Dodgers was their seventh in a row, a span in which they averaged 9.3 runs per game -- in part thanks to a 15-0 win Saturday.
Just like in 2021, Gabe Kapler's system of platoons and aggressive pinch hitting creates an attack that has scored despite lacking any individual stars to carry the load. LaMonte Wade Jr., a surprise in 2021, is hitting again after batting just .207 last year, and Joc Pederson continues to rake against right-handers. A big surprise has been rookie catcher Patrick Bailey, who has hit .304/.337/.532 with 19 RBIs in his first 22 games.
Can they keep it up? The Giants' approach worked wonders in 2021 but not nearly as well in 2022. Obviously, they won't keep scoring nine runs per game, and Bailey is likely way over his head (25 strikeouts, three walks and coming off a season in which he hit .225 in High-A). Mitch Haniger is out with a broken arm, although he hadn't produced much anyway. The Giants are in the top five in runs in the NL, and I could see them holding that spot, which means they'll have a good chance to make the postseason. But it does seem as if a few players are over their heads right now, so I'll predict a small regression from the 4.99 runs per game they've averaged so far.
Baltimore Orioles (56.3%)
Biggest strength: The dynamic bullpen duo
The Orioles are in the bottom third of the majors in rotation ERA, which means the bullpen has carried the load. It's also not a particularly deep pen past the top five guys -- which means Felix Bautista and Yennier Cano must continue to dominate. The pair are a combined 4-1 with 23 saves and a 1.03 ERA. Only one team has ever had more than one reliever pitch more than 60 innings with a sub-1.50 ERA: the 2014 Royals, who incredibly had three (Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, Greg Holland). That team, despite an unimpressive rotation, reached the World Series (and won it the next season). Bautista has also fanned 50.8% of the batters he has faced -- only Aroldis Chapman (2014), Craig Kimbrel (2012) and Edwin Diaz (2022) have fanned 50% of the batters they've faced.
Can they keep it up? Yes. OK, maybe the ERAs rise a little, but this looks the best one-two bullpen punch in the game. The interesting question for the Orioles is whether they'll trade some of their prospects to add a starting pitcher and give the dynamic duo even more leads to protect.
San Diego Padres (55.5%)
Biggest strength: Run prevention
Nothing about this Padres team makes sense. San Diego has allowed the fewest runs in the NL -- yet is under .500, which speaks to the disappointing offense. But even the runs allowed figure doesn't make sense when looking at some of the key performers:
Joe Musgrove: ERA is 1.29 runs higher than last season
Yu Darvish: ERA is 1.64 runs higher
Robert Suarez: top setup man who has missed the entire season
Fifth starters Seth Lugo and Ryan Weathers have combined for a 5.07 ERA
The key has been Michael Wacha -- his 2.89 ERA puts him in the running to make the All-Star Game -- and a bullpen that has remained effective even without Suarez.
Can they keep it up? Hmm. Wacha is likely to regress (he was similarly pitching well in the first half last season), but Musgrove and Darvish are solid bets to pitch better. The bullpen is in the top five in the majors, although the top five relievers (including Josh Hader) are all outperforming their FIP, so some regression is possible there. Blake Snell has a 3.48 ERA and has pitched significantly better in the second half the past two seasons. Throw it in the mixer, including good defense in support, and the Padres can maintain their run prevention. Now ... can they hit?
Milwaukee Brewers (54.1%)
Biggest strength: Defense
Despite a three-team race for the division lead, FanGraphs isn't buying into either the Reds or the Pirates, giving the Brewers a 52% chance of winning the division. The Brewers haven't hit much (near bottom in the NL in average and middle of the pack in home runs); the rotation has been disappointing; some of the expected young contributors (Brice Turang, Joey Wiemer) haven't taken off; and Jesse Winker has been a sinkhole at DH. Even Corbin Burnes (3.44 ERA) and Brandon Woodruff (injured) haven't been shouldering the load.
So let's give props to the defense -- a consistent strength for the Brewers over the years. They have one of the lowest batting averages allowed on balls in play in the majors and rank in the top five in defensive runs saved. Maybe the biggest surprise has been catcher William Contreras. They were able to get him from the Braves in part because Atlanta was skeptical of Contreras' defensive abilities, but he has been more than adequate, ranking in the 63rd percentile in Statcast's pitch framing and in the 62nd percentile in pop time to second base.
Can they keep it up? Sure, defense is usually a constant, and the Brewers rarely forgo defense over other options. They'll need more than good defense, however, even in a soft NL Central. Woodruff is still mending from a shoulder strain, but they need somebody else to step up to help Burnes in the rotation or the Reds or Pirates could end up stealing the division.