Every Los Angeles Angels victory, every day they spend over .500, every win-now move they make reinforces what people across baseball now almost universally believe: They will not trade Shohei Ohtani, the best player in the world, before the 6 p.m. ET deadline Aug. 1. Of course, a year ago today, Washington Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo went on a D.C. radio station and said he was not trading Juan Soto. Two months later, Soto was a San Diego Padre.
Baseball's trade deadline is a beautiful mess of lies and posturing and leverage. What's true yesterday and true tomorrow might not be true today. And so hazarding guesses two months in advance is dangerous, particularly when logic suggests that holding onto Ohtani is far likelier than not to lead to a disastrous outcome for an organization that has spent the last two decades spinning its wheels and the last decade wasting the careers of two Hall of Famers.
The expectation for the Angels is very simple: Unless they flat-out collapse prior to the deadline, they will keep Ohtani -- despite his impending free agency in October -- and chase his first postseason berth. The Angels are doing what they can to make it happen: installing Zach Neto at shortstop less than a year after he was drafted and summoning fireballing reliever Ben Joyce in the same shortened window.
With Ohtani, the Angels believe they at least have a chance. More than anything, they want to show him they can be a winner, that if a championship is what he most desires, he can find it in Anaheim. Since Ohtani arrived in 2018, they have not once finished a season with a winning record. Their last playoff win came in 2009. Ohtani was a sophomore in high school.
The problem: This Angels team, while better, is still a long shot to play meaningful games in October. They are currently 30-27, behind Texas and Houston in the American League West, 3½ games back of the Astros for the final wild-card spot. And with missing out a distinct possibility, that's where keeping Ohtani at the deadline leads to disaster. Last year, the Nationals spun 2½ seasons of Soto into one of the largest prospect hauls of all time. While two months of Ohtani wouldn't be as valuable, he is a frontline pitcher and an elite hitter -- two great players in one -- and a winning team would gladly overpay to use those two months (and October) to convince Ohtani to stay. The Angels could rebuild their bad farm system overnight.
If they don't trade Ohtani, don't make the playoffs, and he does not re-sign, this is what they get out of it: a draft pick. And not a particularly good draft pick. It would be somewhere in the range of 75th overall, with an accompanying bonus slot of around $900,000. Compared to the return in a trade, it would be the saddest of reminders.
Then again, the Angels might contend that trading Ohtani would be just as sad. That's a fair point, which is why the next two months are so important. If Shohei Ohtani is going to remain a Los Angeles Angel -- not just for the rest of 2023 but beyond -- something magical needs to happen. Something they haven't seen in Anaheim since 2002, when they won their only World Series.
This is the time of year, after all, where wild things happen. With Memorial Day in the rearview, trade season is officially upon us. And if it's not going to be Ohtani, then who will get moved? In a baseball world where so many teams are straddling the line between short-term and long-term moves, the next two months are bound to be fascinating.
Who will be looking to offload?
In a typical year, this list is longer by June 1. But MLB's muddled middle leaves only a quartet of teams that are obvious candidates to trade big leaguers for prospects -- and there's not an impact player in the bunch.
The Oakland A's are really, really terrible -- so awful, in fact, that even if they want to move players, there's really not a whole lot teams are going to want. Maybe Brent Rooker, who for a minute was the hottest hitter on the planet? Well, over his last 87 plate appearances, he's hitting a more Rookerian .182/.276/.273. Perhaps Ryan Noda, the rookie first baseman, or Ramon Laureano, the veteran outfielder? The pitching staff is barren. You know it's bad when a team can't tank any harder.
Kansas City brings baseball's second-worst record to the proceedings, and its clearest trade chips are in the bullpen. Aroldis Chapman has rediscovered his velocity and is back to throwing 104-mph fastballs, and he will be the most in-demand reliever. The Royals are listening on closer Scott Barlow, too -- unlike Chapman, who's a free agent this winter, Barlow has another year of team control. Plenty of teams will inquire about the Royals' young core -- Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, Brady Singer -- but Kansas City is not inclined to move any of them.
The sneaky Washington Nationals are not good, but they might not be 100-loss bad, either. If the market breaks such that bats are at a distinct premium, they could consider moving outfielder Lane Thomas, but the more likely play would be dealing third baseman Jeimer Candelario and outfielder Corey Dickerson, the latter of whom is a deadline regular by now. If there's a team desperate for starting pitching, Patrick Corbin is there, but making the money work would be tricky: He looks like an average big league starter, but with a $35 million-plus salary next season.
The most interesting group among the quartet of shame is the Colorado Rockies. Outfielder Randal Grichuk is a free-agent-to-be and slashing .367/.426/.511 in 101 plate appearance. First baseman C.J. Cron's contract is expiring, too, and he's a perfectly capable bat once he returns from a back issue. Two of Colorado's left-handed relievers, Brent Suter and Brad Hand, would look great in playoff bullpens. In past seasons, the Rockies have bungled deadlines, but this one seems obvious: Take advantage of the possible paucity of available players.
Who would usually be taking offers but might not?
This category could also be called "Which divisions are so hideously mediocre that even bad teams might not take the gonna-sell leap as early as they would typically because their awful divisions may allow them to backdoor their way into contention? (Plus the Marlins.)"
The Chicago Cubs are in last place, and maybe they belong among the previous group, but they also have a better run differential than the first-, second- and third-place teams, so counting them out might be premature. That said: The Cubs are also operating on a timeline geared toward the future, so if Marcus Stroman is going to opt out of the final season of his three-year contract -- and considering he leads the National League in innings pitched and is holding hitters to a .188/.261/.277 line, he unequivocally should, even in a pitching-rich free agent class like this one -- then the Cubs absolutely should deal him. Same with Cody Bellinger, who's on a one-year deal and is the best center fielder available. Drew Smyly could move, particularly to a team that wants the cost certainty of a left-hander still under contract for '24. Keep an eye on Kyle Hendricks, also in the final year of his deal.
Detroit is currently in second place in its division despite having the third-worst run differential in all of baseball. (The AL Central, everyone!) The finger-pulley rupture Eduardo Rodriguez suffered this week was devastating, not just for the Tigers' prospects of potentially catching Minnesota but because the injury typically takes well over a month to heal. Teams already are loath to deal for a pitcher who can turn himself into a rental by opting out of the final three years and $49 million on his deal -- but to do it with someone who spent his previous chunk of time on the shelf? The Tigers have loads of otherwise-attractive-enough pitching -- down-rotation arms like Matthew Boyd or Michael Lorenzen, or any of the three solid relievers with four-plus years of control: closer Alex Lange and setup men Jason Foley and Will Vest.
The decision for the second-place Pittsburgh Pirates is pretty simple: Do they make what is the "right" move for any small- to mid-sized market that wants to contend and cash in on closer David Bednar near his peak in value? He is a truly elite reliever: huge fastball, gnarly curve, splitter to boot, and a 28-to-0 strikeout-to-unintentional-walk ratio in 21 innings this year. He's about to get very expensive in arbitration. With Colin Holderman, there's a ready-made replacement. Everything adds up, except: Bednar is a Yinzer. And while a player excelling in the city in which he grew up isn't reason enough alone to hold onto him, it does make trading him much more difficult than otherwise. Pittsburgh has some veterans it could move (Carlos Santana and Rich Hill, familiar faces this time of year), and Bednar could be a winter decision. And it's not out of the realm of possibility that the Pirates -- yes, the Pirates -- could add. (The NL Central, everyone!)
Cincinnati is the hot team in the NL Central at the moment, and with the imminent call-up of shortstop Elly de la Cruz -- think of Oneil Cruz's size and toolset but a switch hitter with better place discipline -- and the early star turn of Matt McLain, and the Reds are feeling themselves with good reason. Of course, the kids' arrivals could displace 2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India, and teams are inquiring about him, but sources told ESPN the Reds are in no hurry to move him. The Reds played last deadline exquisitely, turning Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle into four big bats -- NL Rookie of the Year candidate Spencer Steer, third basemen Christian Encarnacion-Strand and top prospects Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo -- but are now pivoting toward a very intriguing and exciting future.
The imperative for the Cleveland Guardians before July 1 is easy: Figure out if they can hit at all, and then figure out whether Shane Bieber is going to bring them more at the deadline or the winter. Three general managers this week said they believe Bieber will be dealt before Aug. 1. Cleveland's done it before: It traded Mike Clevinger at the deadline in 2020 and Trevor Bauer in 2019. With Triston McKenzie's return imminent, Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee looking great and Gavin Williams arriving soon, the next generation of Cleveland pitching is coming. Everything lines up. And if Bieber goes, Amed Rosario could join him -- maybe in the same deal, maybe separately.
In the NL East, the Miami Marlins are in second place, ahead of the Mets and Phillies. The Marlins are also not very good. It's why teams in need of power are planning on lining up for Jorge Soler. His 17 home runs are third in all of baseball. He can -- and almost certainly will -- opt out of his deal after the season. He also might be the best bat available, and as middling as the entire NL is, the Marlins should take advantage of opportunities when gifted them and get all they can for Soler.
Who is hesitant to take the plunge -- but maybe should?
This is where things start to get fun. The Chicago White Sox probably belong in the category above, and executives believe they will trade free-agent-to-be Lucas Giolito regardless of whether they claw their way back into AL Central contention. The opportunity for more is ripe. They could deal ace Dylan Cease or shortstop Tim Anderson and reap a king's ransom. But doing so would signal the failure of this incarnation of the White Sox even more than the team's record does, and people around baseball don't believe owner Jerry Reinsdorf -- the master of the transactional half-measure -- is particularly inclined to blow things up. So maybe it's Giolito and Lance Lynn and possibly even Liam Hendriks. Until the White Sox make it explicitly clear that Cease and/or Anderson is moving, though, teams aren't going to spend much time dreaming of that possibility, even if it's exactly what this deadline needs for a jolt of excitement.
Just when it seemed like the St. Louis Cardinals were extracting themselves from the hole they dug over the first month, they hit another rough patch and look like a team in desperate need of change. If they decide to give up on the season, president John Mozeliak certainly has options. The Cardinals have used nine outfielders this season, and while Tyler O'Neill is the one St. Louis has suggested it's willing to trade, Lars Nootbaar would bring the greatest return. (Jordan Walker isn't going anywhere, executives said, but they believe the Cardinals will at least listen on Dylan Carlson, Alec Burleson and even Tommy Edman.) The front-office officials are split on whether Jack Flaherty will be traded before the deadline; they don't expect Jordan Montgomery, who could get a qualifying offer, to go unless St. Louis simply bottoms out. And if that happens, one GM wondered, beyond the Cardinals making almost everyone available -- free-agent-to-be Jordan Hicks and Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley -- might the Cardinals consider moving reigning NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt? With one year left on his contract, Goldschmidt would be a tremendous fit in the middle of any lineup -- though with a full no-trade clause, he would need to be on board with any deal for it to happen.
A question, from a GM who is hoping to trade for a starting pitcher this July, about the Philadelphia Phillies: "Do you think they move Nola?" He meant Aaron Nola, Philadelphia's franchise pitcher for the last half-decade, and the question would be absurd if it didn't make at least some sense. If the Phillies continue to struggle, would they hold on to Nola only to see him potentially walk in free agency and get a nothing draft pick in return? The sides talked about a contract extension during spring training and didn't come close. And because the Phillies are over the luxury-tax threshold, if Nola leaves, their only compensation will be a pick after the fourth round. This is one of those scenarios that will take more than a month to play out, but if by the All-Star break the Phillies remain stuck in neutral, president Dave Dombrowski -- the prince of go-for-it-now deals -- could be incentivized to play for the future.
After a rough winter and rougher start to the season, the San Francisco Giants have stabilized and might stay the course. But one thing is certain: President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has a whole mess of options. Beyond free-agent-to-be Joc Pederson and likely free agent Michael Conforto -- he's got an opt-out -- the Giants have a roster full of solid bats with varying levels of control: J.D. Davis (free agent after 2024), LaMonte Wade Jr. (2025) and the Giants' best player this year, Thairo Estrada (2026). Same goes for their rotation: Alex Wood (2023), Alex Cobb (a $10 million option for 2024) and Anthony DeSclafani (2024), all of whom have been excellent this year. In a wide-open NL, the Giants are playoff contenders. But as creative as Zaidi is, might they try to thread the lose-and-add needle that's so difficult to pull off in July?
Who would turn the deadline buck wild?
Right now the Toronto Blue Jays are a half-game away from being the last-place team. (They would be a first-place team in both Central divisions, but they happen to play in the AL East, perhaps the most unrelenting division in the almost 30 years since MLB went to six.) The likelihood of the Blue Jays dropping out of contention is slim, but if it happens -- because of ineffectiveness, injuries or some combination of both -- the Blue Jays do have what teams will covet come July: rental bats. Third baseman Matt Chapman, who's primed to be the best non-Ohtani hitter on the market this winter, would be at the top of teams' wish lists. Kevin Kiermaier has been an excellent one-year signing. After a slow start, Brandon Belt has stabilized. Again, the Blue Jays, and the teams that follow, almost certainly won't be giving up on the season. But baseball is weird. Good teams go bad. And every so often, deadline deals of which nobody could conceive actually do happen.
No matter how bad the San Diego Padres have been, it's almost impossible to punt on this season, this team, this dream that they've tried to put together. If they came to the conclusion they did not want to spend what it would take to sign Juan Soto long-term, for example, might the Padres entertain trading him? With Josh Hader back to his dominant self, ready to hit free agency and grab a nine-figure deal, would the Padres ever consider reversing their 2022 deadline in full? The answers, for now and almost certainly come Aug. 1, will be no and no. But if this year continues to be a bust, it's simply good business to explore it even if they have no intention of executing it.
After the fallout of the Hader trade last year, it would take a hefty dose of hubris for the Milwaukee Brewers to come back and move former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes at the deadline. Officials believe a Burnes deal, if it does happen, is likelier to come in the winter, but if the deadline market shrivels and starting pitching is at a premium, the Brewers have shown they are willing to make value plays even when they're uncomfortable and unpopular. And if there's no Cease-and-Anderson or Bieber-and-Rosario deals to be had, a Burnes-and-Willy Adames package would be plenty tempting.