The two best records in baseball belong to the teams with the 27th- and 28th-ranked payrolls in the game. The six division leaders are the Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves, Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks. And the average time of a Major League Baseball game is at its lowest since 1981.
April is always full of questions about what's real and what's not, what's sustainable and what's folly. With the four-week mark of the season arriving tomorrow, here are 10 takeaways from the early going that range from a spate of injuries -- the origin of which is flummoxing people around the game -- to how pitch-clock baseball might not be all that different from what we've seen in recent years.
1. A rise in injuries
The number of injured list stints thus far have set off alarm bells around the game, and people are struggling to separate signal from noise. Between the start of spring training and the 20th day of the season, 236 players hit the IL -- the highest number ever in that period, and by a wide margin. Last year, over the same period, 189 players hit the IL last year in a lockout-shortened spring training. It was 192 in 2021's COVID-affected season and 151, 181, 173, 149 and 169 in the previous five standard years.
There are plenty of theories to explain the surge, but the overwhelming likelihood is that it's not a single factor -- like, say, the pitch clock, which has become an easy scapegoat.
Could the clock be having an effect? Absolutely. Players expressed concerns about it during discussions with MLB about the new rules. Their trepidation makes sense. Whether it's relievers in the bullpen getting less time to warm up, hitters having just one timeout to calm themselves or starters adjusting to the hastened pace, the differences in the game have led to adjusted approaches, which could make players more liable to get injured.
But one athletic trainer, whose role involves monitoring injury trends, said: "The clock has nothing to do with it. I'm not seeing it." Two others suggested the same. Which has left them wondering: What, exactly, could it be?
Their first instinct: It might just be a really unlucky year. Which is quite a dissatisfactory answer, but also one that could be true. Injuries often go in waves. Some years are full of Tommy John surgeries and others less so. The difficulty in predicting injuries is illustrated in the wide variety. For all the most common injuries in 2023 -- more than 50 elbow injuries for pitchers alongside nine left oblique strains and seven left hamstring strains for hitters -- the vast majority are sprains, strains, inflammation, tightness, discomfort, soreness, tears, fractures, impingements, contusions, tendinitis, fatigue, spasms, subluxations and avulsions from head to toe.
The only way we'll know for certain whether this season is anomalous is if future years mimic 2023. And if they do, the theories of trainers, executives, other officials and players will focus on the clock, yes, but also a spate of other possibilities:
If the greatest predictor of a future injury -- particularly with a pitcher's arm -- is a past injury, it would stand to reason that the proliferation of Tommy John surgeries for players before they get into affiliated baseball would leave them susceptible to getting injured when they're in pro ball. Perhaps, then, it's no surprise that of the 236 IL placements, 162 are pitchers. That 68% pitcher rate is up slightly from the most recent full seasons, in which about 60% of injuries in the designated time period were to non-position players. If the trend continues, it is perhaps the worst-case scenario for MLB: a population of players damaged before they even make it to professional baseball causing terminal unreliability.
A number of athletic trainers and orthopedists are convinced that the widespread adoption of technology is offering misguided incentives that put players in harm's way. The logic is sound: Players using high-speed cameras and radar devices to create perfect spin in pitching labs are actually manipulating their arms in ways that make them more likely to hurt themselves. The issue, of course, is that this is next to impossible to prove. How do you know a player wouldn't have injured himself without pitch design? Moreover, as long as teams incentivize players executing nasty pitches, pitchers are going to prioritize nastiness above all.
Here's one that almost certainly contributes and that players and executives both acknowledge: Going on the injured list doesn't carry the stigma it once did. A pitcher would much rather hit the IL for 15 days than spend the mandatory 15 on option in the minor leagues because those on the IL get major league pay and service time. Further, the IL can be used by a team to work with a pitcher whose stuff may be down a tick and needs the sort of tinkering best done with a major league pitching coach.
The World Baseball Classic is a standard excuse -- and one that may have merit well beyond the injuries suffered at the event like those of Edwin Díaz and José Altuve. Pitchers in particular needed to ramp up earlier to throw competitive pitches in the tournament. Further, their premium performance in the first few weeks of spring training could have a psychological effect on others in camp, who may have felt the need to show out similarly. It's unlikely that a rash of injuries came from that, but it would be foolish to suggest the WBC has no effect on players, too.
Understanding injuries is final frontier stuff for baseball. It takes an immense amount of patience, and when nearly 20% of players on 40-man rosters hit the IL within the first 20 days of the season, calmness tends not to be the prevailing response. Just understand that, even if it doesn't mollify concerns, patience is the proper approach to take -- and we'll check back throughout the season and next year to see if it's actually signal or just noise.
2. The game might be shorter, but it's not much different
Pitch clock baseball was supposed to be a different brand than the kind fans had grown accustomed to. Faster. Action-packed. Exciting. And in some respects, that has been the case. Stolen bases are up (more on that later), and the lack of shifts places a greater emphasis on athletic second basemen.
But when you look closely, baseball in April 2023 looks an awful lot like it did in that bygone era of ... April 2018. It's just done a half-hour sooner.
Now, it's true: The 2021 and 2022 seasons were particularly action-depressed, and batting average fell to its lowest in more than a half-century. But there isn't necessarily more action now than there was five years ago. It's just squeezed into a shorter time period.
Which is a good thing, certainly, and a step in the right direction. Unless the next five months bring a drastic change, though -- and even as the weather heats up, the triple-slash numbers put up in April have historically stayed relatively static for the remainder of the season -- the same issues that cajoled baseball to overhaul the game will persist.
Batting average will still be low compared to historic numbers. Strikeout rates will remain near an all-time high. The three true outcomes will rule the day. Five-and-fly will be the norm for starting pitchers. Action will be hard to come by. And the game of the late 2010s will again be the norm in 2023.
3. The rise of the slider continues
From 2007 to 2016, slider usage across baseball was steady, between 14.2% and 15.4%. It has climbed every year since, and this year is the highest yet, at 22.6% of pitches thrown (the San Francisco Giants -- 31.4% -- and Los Angeles Angels -- 30.8% -- have what would be the two highest slider rates ever). Whatever its shape -- the side-to-side sweeper, the classic down-and-away two-planer or the hard, up-and-down-breaking gyro -- the pitch has separated itself from the curveball and changeup and become the clear go-to after the fastball. From Shohei Ohtani to Clayton Kershaw to Dylan Cease, some of the best starting pitchers in baseball are throwing more sliders than fastballs. Pitching backward is not just accepted but encouraged.
Why the slider revolution? Two factors that work hand in hand: It is the best combination of ease of execution and effectiveness. Throwing a slider is similar to throwing a fastball, only with a slightly modified grip and finger pressure. The difference to hitters is stark. On plate appearances that end with fastballs -- four-seamers and sinkers -- hitters are slashing .269/.362/.443 this year. Against sliders, it's .213/.272/.362 -- a 171-point difference in OPS.
There's a reason fastball usage is down to 47.1%, the lowest ever in the game. It's just not as successful a pitch as the slider, and until the productivity gap between the two lessens -- or some sort of definitive data illustrates increased slider usage causes more injuries -- the slow degradation of fastball usage will continue.
4. A decrease in pitch clock violations
Throughout the minor league season last year, pitch clock violations steadily dropped during the first month before eventually settling at .53 violations per game over the season's final five months, according to MLB. Big leaguers had the benefit of using spring training to work out the kinks, and averaged just over two violations per game after the first week. By the end of spring training, that number had been halved.
After the first three days of the regular season, the average of pitch clock violations dropped to .82 per game. It jumped to .93 in the second week (April 3-9) before dipping to .64 in the third week and holding steady at .66 in the week that ended Sunday. The likelihood of it going much higher is minimal. Players know the rules. They're used to the game's pace. Perhaps the most telling numbers: The average time remaining on the clock when a pitch is thrown, according to the league, is 6.6 seconds with the bases empty and 7.7 seconds with runners on. Pitchers, the data says, are not bleeding the clock as some feared they would. Batters have figured out when to use their timeouts and pitchers their mound visits.
In the most recent week of play, 61% of games ended without a clock violation. Yes, there is bound to be a violation in an important game or in a high-level spot that turns a result. But, as nearly a month of games has proven, it will be the exception, not the rule.
5. Stolen bases are up, but only compared to recent years
The season started with a base-stealing frenzy -- and sure enough, there's a real chance that Ronald Acuña Jr., who has swiped 12 bases already and looks like his pre-ACL-tear, MVP-caliber self, sets the mark for the most pre-May 1 stolen bases over the last decade this week. He needs just two more to top Ender Inciarte -- the man whose job Acuña took -- who had 13 bases in April 2018 (as did Billy Hamilton in 2015 and Dee Strange-Gordon in 2014).
Since then, though, it turns out early fears that track meets were going to break out at every baseball game have been proven unfounded. Stolen bases are up, yes, but they are simply beyond modern norms as opposed to historical ones.
Provided the final six days of the month remain at the pace of the first 24, this year could challenge for the most stolen bases before May 1 in baseball history.
But on a per-game basis, the thievery in 2023 falls behind nearly every April from 1975 to 1999 -- and is actually in line with the numbers as recent as 2011. Steals in the 1980s regularly topped 1.5 per game. The 1.36 per game this season certainly is an improvement over the last three Aprils, when teams didn't even average one, and this month's 6% go-rate on stolen-base opportunities is the highest since April 2012. But again: Over the quarter-century leading up to 1999, the percentage of opportunities was higher than this year every single season.
In theory, stealing is easier than ever due to the shorter distance between bases and maximum of two disengagements per plate appearance. But it's not so easy that it's going to warp the game entirely.
6. The Rays are legitimate
Hey, skeptics. Are you finally ready to believe the Tampa Bay Rays are real? Are you done with thinking their cream-puff early season schedule created some sort of mirage of excellence that was bound to dissipate once they started playing so-called real teams? Most important: Are you not entertained?
Tampa Bay is 20-3 and undefeated in 14 games at Tropicana Field. And with one-seventh of the season gone, here are some numbers to chew on.
The Rays' OPS of .896 is exactly 100 points higher than the next-best team, the Chicago Cubs.
Opponents' OPS against Tampa Bay pitching is .569, more than 60 points lower than the Twins at .632.
With 48 home runs, the Rays clear the Los Angeles Dodgers by five and the third-ranked team, the Braves, by 13.
With 14 home runs allowed, the Rays have yielded the fewest home runs as well.
Tampa Bay leads MLB in runs (149), runs allowed (64), batting average on the first pitch (.494) and ERA (2.72)
And the Rays do the little things, too. They lead MLB in going first to third on a single, doing so 46.9% of the time, and are perfect on 23 tag-ups, the second most in the big leagues. They've committed just eight errors, tied for sixth in the big leagues and just two behind the MLB-leading Kansas City Royals and New York Mets. Their outfield hasn't committed one.
Certainly the disbelievers will continue to counter with: Yeah, but the schedule. And there is some truth in that. After winning their first 12 games against admittedly weak competition, Tampa Bay will play 29 games in 30 days in May against teams with a combined winning percentage of .612. It might be the toughest month any club will face this season.
The Rays think they're up for it -- and plan to show once and for all that they are very, very real.
7. The six overachieving teams
Of the first month's half-dozen most surprising teams -- the Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles, Cubs, Miami Marlins, Pirates and Rangers -- which is the most real?
The Marlins are one game over .500 with the sixth-worst run differential in baseball at -34, so scratch them off. The Pirates are the best non-Rays story of the early season, and they're doing it without Oneil Cruz, but it's difficult to see this roster maintaining its pace -- or, even if it does, adding like contenders need to at the trade deadline. Brandon Pfaadt's arrival will help Arizona, but the D-Backs might yet be a year away in a very competitive National League. The Cubs are getting 90th-percentile performance from a number of players and still are in third, and regression is bound to bite.
That leaves the Rangers and Orioles. And as great as Baltimore looks, Texas has the second-best run differential in baseball, a very good rotation, a sneaky-solid bullpen and an offense that's more than holding its own without Corey Seager. If the Orioles find some starting pitching, perhaps they're the better choice, but for now, Texas -- and its slightly easier road in the American League West -- wins.
8. The six underachieving teams
Of the half-dozen most disappointing teams -- the White Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners and St. Louis Cardinals -- which is in the most trouble?
The Padres are finally nearing full strength, with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Joe Musgrove back. They'll be fine. The Phillies have clawed their way back near .500, and with Bryce Harper potentially returning within two weeks to play first base, they'll add an MVP-caliber talent to a team already getting better-than-expected contributions from Brandon Marsh, Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm. The Mariners look wobbly -- especially in the back half of their rotation and bottom third of their lineup -- but there's enough talent to rip off a run. And considering its offensive talent, St. Louis is bound to claw itself off a 63-win pace, even if its pitching might doom a playoff run.
Neither San Francisco nor Chicago was necessarily a trendy postseason pick, but nobody would have foreseen either losing 100 games, as their current paces suggest. The Giants have hit plenty of home runs -- they account for 58.6% of San Francisco's runs -- but their bullpen has been a dumpster fire and the staff has served up nearly as many tanks (29) as the offense has whacked (34). The White Sox, meanwhile, have allowed 32 homers and hit just 23. Their combination of injuries and ineffectiveness is digging them a big hole, and even if the AL Central is a dungeon of suck, they look more like they'll embody it than escape it.
9. Five players whose dominant starts are real
While baseball remains in small sample territory, here are five players whose hot starts pass the smell test:
Jarred Kelenic, OF, Seattle Mariners: Batted-ball data puts Kelenic among the elite hitters in the game, with a hard-hit rate that's eighth out of 179 qualified batters and an expected weighted on-base average that's 13th. He's still too strikeout-prone, but a nine-point jump in contact rate suggests Kelenic's overhauled swing is bringing out the potential that has long lurked within. If he can keep laying off breaking balls and attack fastballs, he's a star.
James Outman, OF Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers loved Outman because he performed better in every level of the minor leagues, with a wOBA that jumped at every step from Low-A to Triple-A - and thus far this season, it's at .461, fifth best in the big leagues and better than at all the minor league stops. His ability to play all three outfield positions well allowed them to move Mookie Betts to shortstop.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays: Yes, he's a luminary already, but the 24-year-old is getting better. His 10.6% strikeout rate is less than half the league average, and he's swinging and missing at only one of every eight pitches in the zone. If he can maintain that and hit the ball as hard as anyone not named Giancarlo Stanton or Aaron Judge, greatness is the floor and the ceiling is unlimited.
Graham Ashcraft, SP, Cincinnati Reds: On the strength of the third-best cutter and second-best slider of any starter (as graded by Stuff+), the 25-year-old Ashcraft has the third-best stuff of any starter, behind only Jacob deGrom and Shohei Ohtani. If he can cut down on the walks, he's a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm.
Aroldis Chapman, RP, Kansas City Royals: His average fastball is back to 100 mph for the first time since 2017. His slider is again functioning as a swing-and-miss weapon. And when the Royals decide to trade him, teams in need of relief -- in other words, every contender -- will be lining up.
10. Five players whose starts are worrisome
On the contrary, here are five players whose early indicators portend trouble going forward:
Blake Snell, SP, San Diego Padres: Among starting pitchers, Snell carries the highest three-ball-count percentage (36%), the lowest strike rate (54.8%) and the worst zone rate (39.1% of pitches would be rulebook strikes). Yes, it's only four starts, but thus far, Snell has only reinforced the biggest knocks on him.
Jack Flaherty, SP, St. Louis Cardinals: With the highest walk rate of the 96 pitchers with at least 20 innings (19 in 27⅓ innings), he has little margin for error. And batters know it; they're chasing on just 19.8% of pitches, the fourth-lowest mark. At his best, in the second half of 2019, Flaherty walked 23 in 99⅓ innings and got swings on 31.6% of pitches out of the zone.
Jazz Chisholm, CF, Miami Marlins: Stardom is within Chisholm's reach. He's just not going to find it by striking out a major league-worst 38.4% of the time. He simply can't miss on four of every 10 swings he takes -- a figure 60% higher than the league average.
Jordan Walker, RF, St. Louis Cardinals: The 20-year-old played only 31 minor league games in the outfield, so it's reasonable to expect a learning curve. But if he wants to reach the level to which his bat is capable of taking him, he needs to improve in right field, where, according to all the major defensive metrics, he has been the worst outfielder in baseball over the first month.
Eloy Jimenez, DH, Chicago White Sox: Already 26 and at this point more or less limited to DH duties, Jimenez needs to hit to warrant the White Sox picking up a pair of options that start in 2025. A steady diet of off-speed pitches has eaten him alive this year, and his 40.6% chase rate and 38.8% whiff rate are among the worst in baseball. He may hit the ball hard, but missing it this often doesn't do him much good.