The lingering feelings from the last time Shohei Ohtani was free to talk to all 30 major league teams, in the fall of 2017, probably range from resignation to frustration to anger, because with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, many executives who didn't land Ohtani believe the courting process was a colossal waste of time.
Teams spent hundreds of hours preparing elaborate presentations in their effort to lure Ohtani, and in the end, some of the execs believe, even the most perfectly crafted PowerPoint or the most stirring video would have made zero difference in Ohtani's decision. "He was going to the Angels all along," said one rival official. "I can't tell you why that is, but for it to play out the way that it did, he must've made up his mind way before he talked with everybody."
But here's the thing -- the executives who walked away from that lightning round of Ohtani speed dating will gladly try again this fall, when the greatest two-way player in baseball history is expected to reach free agency. Because he's that great. A middle-of-the-order slugger and an ace pitcher with the pure stuff to front any rotation.
Team officials speculate what the most important factors will be when Ohtani weighs offers, from geography (will he want to stay with a West Coast team?) to market intensity (is he actually open to playing in New York?) to team success (an open question because, after all, he once chose the Angels, a team that hasn't won a playoff series since 2009) to money (lots and lots and lots of it).
Evaluators wonder if there will be owners willing to go beyond unimaginable with their financial proposals, and whether that'll actually make a difference to Ohtani, who has already demonstrated an ability to shock in his choices.
"Anybody who tells you they know what's going to happen," said one evaluator, "is completely full of s---."
In this Year of Ohtani, here is some of the early industry conversation going on about where he will sign an expected record-setting contract.
The favorite
Sources say Ohtani has been the subject of a lot of conversation between Dodgers players and team staffers, especially following a winter in which Los Angeles slashed its payroll by about 15%, forgoing last winter's star-laden free agents and instead doling out very short-term deals, to J.D. Martinez, Jason Heyward and even Dodger legend Clayton Kershaw. This strategy theoretically could give L.A.'s front office a lot of room to grow the payroll for next season and beyond. Some rival execs strongly believe Ohtani will land with the Dodgers. "It makes too much sense for them," said one. "It's a market that responds to stars, and he's the biggest star in the game." Ohtani could bat among Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and James Outman and, after Kershaw retires, he could be the Dodgers' No. 1 or 1A.
Ohtani passed on an opportunity to play with the Dodgers six years ago, but the context for L.A. has changed since then, with the National League's adoption of the designated hitter. Looking back at Ohtani's choice in 2017, one evaluator said, "It's obvious now that he wanted to go someplace where he could be the DH on the days he didn't pitch." In Ohtani's six seasons in the majors, he's played a total of seven games in the outfield.
But despite consistently carrying one of the highest payrolls in the majors, the Dodgers' front office under Andrew Friedman has almost never engaged in spiraling bidding wars. Friedman waited for the Braves to drop out of the negotiations for Freeman before making a formal offer for the former MVP and wound up signing the first baseman to a deal laden with deferred salary. Similarly, Betts' deal includes significant deferrals. If L.A. is going to sign Ohtani, it may have to go way, way beyond its comfort zone, especially if the Dodgers are going to beat out the most aggressive suitors in the last year.
Three more front-runners
San Diego Padres, New York Mets and New York Yankees
Mets general manager Billy Eppler was the leader of the Angels' front office when Ohtani chose Anaheim, and he probably knows Ohtani better than any evaluator who will be involved in the pursuit once free agency begins -- a possible advantage for the Mets. Or not. Some rival execs wonder if any team outside of California has a legitimate shot.
"When he picked the Angels, it was like he wanted to go somewhere where he could play without having to deal with the media spotlight," said one exec. "He went to a place where he didn't have to be the biggest star on the team, because [Mike] Trout was."
Reporters who have covered the Angels know that having access to him for interviews and conversations is somewhat serendipitous, and if Ohtani were to sign in New York, there would be greater demand and a greater expectation that he would make himself available. The past two captains of the Yankees, Derek Jeter and Aaron Judge, haven't been known as headline makers, but are known for how consistently they step before cameras in the best or worst of times.
But even if Ohtani would prefer to make himself available less often, rather than more -- some of the rival execs wonder if that will matter if money becomes the deciding factor, and if going beyond unimaginable might work. The strategy worked for San Diego last winter. Padres owner Peter Seidler made the biggest offer to Trea Turner, by far, offering even more than the Phillies. When Turner picked Philadelphia, the Padres made the most significant offer to Judge, by far; there was a window in which the Padres' offer to Judge ($415 million) was nearly $100 million higher than that of the Yankees, before Hal Steinbrenner added another year and $40 million to his proposal. Then San Diego turned to Xander Bogaerts, with its proposal eventually 75% higher than that of the Red Sox.
"Why would anyone think it's going to be different with Ohtani?" asked one Padres employee. "He might not pick us, but [Seidler] is going to make it damn hard for him to turn us down."
Because Steve Cohen loves art and owns a collection with an estimated worth of something close to a billion dollars, rival executives like to invoke this part of his portfolio when speculating how he might pursue the most coveted baseball players. "We don't know if Ohtani is the piece of art that Cohen decides he must have," said one official.
This is not an unreasonable thought about an owner who bought a team with a $193 million payroll and has nearly doubled it, from $193 million in 2020 (the last year of the Wilpon family ownership) to $377 million this year. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander have the highest annual salaries in baseball history, and Cohen's name is the one emblazoned on their paychecks. So how far would Cohen go for a player whose accomplishments are unprecedented? We'll find out in the fall.
Others in the mix
San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners and Chicago Cubs
After trying and failing to land Judge and Carlos Correa, the Giants are still looking for a face of their franchise, and signing Ohtani would accomplish that. But San Francisco would probably have to do what it did not do with Judge -- go far beyond competing offers, despite extraordinary payroll flexibility. The Mariners and Cubs each took a shot at Ohtani in 2017 and might have the financial muscle to pull off a deal. But will they go beyond unimaginable? Will Ohtani seriously consider them? That's unknown. That nobody seems to have a clue about what Ohtani really wants would seem to work well for him, evaluators say, because it'll keep some possible bidders like the Giants, Mariners and Cubs in play.
Nez Balelo, Ohtani's agent, is in such a command position, executives say, that he could effectively set an ante-up price for all teams that inquire and set a floor. "He's in a position to tell teams that if they're not prepared to make a huge offer -- say, $500 million -- then there won't be a visit," said one evaluator. "All [Ohtani] really needs is two big-market teams bidding, but he may have as many as eight to 10 teams, and Nez may look for a way to separate the teams that are serious from the others."
A pair of potential players
Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies
Boston and Philadelphia are big-market teams with the financial might to pursue Ohtani, and for that reason, rival execs expect that they will do their due diligence and check in. But over the past four years, the Red Sox haven't exactly demonstrated an appetite for big contracts -- you may have heard about the departure of Betts and Bogaerts. The Phillies have two of the game's highest-paid players already, in Bryce Harper and Turner, leaving execs to wonder if they would be willing to take on the most significant contract ever. One evaluator did note that with Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler each nearing free agency, the Phillies may be in the market for a frontline starter, and Ohtani would qualify.
Ohtani's current team
Teammates say Ohtani is extremely regimented in his preparation, from his workouts to his bullpen sessions to his batting practice. He has carte blanche within the Angels' organization, doing what he wants when he wants. The franchise effectively structured its pitching staff around Ohtani's preferences when he arrived in the big leagues, shifting to a six-man rotation, and that continues to be the case.
Arte Moreno, the Angels' owner, considered selling the team in the past year, but pulled back. "Signing [Ohtani] would be a way to jump-start the franchise," said a rival official. "Arte could sign Ohtani and that decision might change fans' perception of [Moreno]."
Moreno has famously never taken his team's payroll over the luxury tax threshold, but he almost certainly would have to in order to sign Ohtani, on top of the whopper contracts for Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon that are already on the books. Maybe the owner of the team located adjacent to Disneyland would go beyond unimaginable. "It's not like he hasn't done surprising stuff before," said an NL exec, noting Moreno's shocking deals with Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton.
After Ohtani's decision to sign with the Angels, the teams that lost out, received personal thank you notes from the rising star. "He was incredibly gracious through the whole process," recalled one official.
And many are prepared to run the risk that Ohtani will break their hearts a second time. Because he's that great.