And we're off! The start of the 2023 season brings with it the most changes of any season since 1969 -- when Major League Baseball split into divisions for the first time, lowered the mound and redefined the strike zone while adding four expansion teams.
The new rules promise a faster-paced game and, hopefully, a return to a style of play with more stolen bases, more base hits and more opportunities for the best fielders to demonstrate their excellence.
The pitch timer is in. (Pitchers will have 15 seconds to deliver a pitch with nobody on base and 20 seconds with runners on -- and the batter must be ready to hit with eight seconds on the clock.) The shift is out. (There must be two fielders on each side of second base and infielders must play on the dirt.) The bases are a little bigger, and pitchers are limited to two disengagements -- pickoff throws or stepping off the rubber -- per plate appearance.
There's a chance very little might change, but let's dig into some areas of the game and consider which players and teams might be most affected by the new rules.
New rules: What you need to know |
Passan: Welcome to a new era
The shift
Left-handed hitters, especially pull hitters who hit grounders
Key players to watch: Corey Seager, Kyle Schwarber, Shohei Ohtani, Yordan Alvarez, Max Muncy
Let's get this out of the way: By left-handed pull hitters, we really mean all left-handed hitters. And don't "Tony Gwynn" me here. You know who pulled most of his ground balls? Mr. Tony Gwynn. He had 3,203 ground ball outs in his career; 64% of them went to the first baseman or second baseman. If we include grounders back to the pitcher, it was 73%.
All hitters, when they hit the ball on the ground, are more likely to pull it. But some hitters will be helped more than others.
Over the past three seasons, the lefty hitters with the most ground ball outs were Alex Verdugo, Raimel Tapia, J.P. Crawford, Nicky Lopez and Adam Frazier. We're not talking about those hitters, although they should get a few more hits. We need to look at the lefty hitters who hit the ball hard and whom extreme shifts are most often deployed against. The most shifted batters in 2022 on a percentage basis, according to Sports Info Solutions (SIS) data: Seager, Schwarber, Ohtani, Seth Brown, Rowdy Tellez, Cody Bellinger, Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Muncy and Mike Yastrzemski. All left-handed hitters with power.
Statcast classifies a hard-hit ball as 95 mph or higher. The list of lefty hitters with the most outs in 2022 on grounders of 95-plus mph: Christian Yelich (72), Rafael Devers (59), Tellez (58), Alvarez (58), Matt Olson (55), Seager (54), Brandon Nimmo (49), Verdugo (48), Cedric Mullins (48), Nathaniel Lowe (47) and Juan Soto (46). Those hitters are all going to love seeing the shortstop on the left side of second base.
Those totals also don't include the short line drives that were caught, particularly those when the second baseman was playing in shallow right field. Because infielders have to start on the dirt, some of those liners are also more likely to go for hits.
Seager is the prime example here. He went 18-for-161 (.112) on grounders and short line drives hit between first and second base in 2022, and SIS estimated that he lost 29 hits to the shift. MLB.com, using Statcast data, put it at a more conservative 20 hits when applying 2023 positioning rules. Add 20 hits to Seager's 2022 ledger and his batting average goes from .245 to .278. His OPS climbs from .778 to .836. His .423/.474/.673 spring training line already shows a difference.
Alvarez lost an estimated 18 hits in 2022; giving him a conservative 12 additional hits raises his average from .306 to .332 and suddenly he looks like a Triple Crown candidate. Give Ohtani another 15 hits and his average goes from .273 to .299.
Some believe the ban will be less impactful than is widely believed, but teams optimized their defensive positioning with in-depth data analysis for a reason: to cut down on base hits. I think back to a video from a Los Angeles Dodgers intrasquad game early in spring training, when Muncy hit a ball up the middle just past the reach of the second baseman and could be heard yelling, "Yes! No shift!"
Teams with a lot of left-handed hitters
Key teams to watch: Arizona Diamondbacks, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros
OK, so if left-handed batters in general might be helped, it reasons that teams with the most lefty hitters will benefit. The range of plate appearances by left-handed (or switch-hitters batting lefty) in 2022 ranged from the Diamondbacks with 3,842 to the Blue Jays with just 1,016. The five teams with the most lefty PAs in 2022: the Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Mets, Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers. The five teams with the least: the Blue Jays, Miami Marlins, Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies and the Astros.
Even though the Astros had only Alvarez and Tucker (and a partial season from Michael Brantley, who isn't shifted much) as left-handed regulars in the lineup, according to SIS, they lost more hits to the shift -- 59 -- than any other team in 2022. Alvarez and Tucker accounted for 33 of those, but Alex Bregman also lost an estimated 13 hits, the most of any right-handed batter.
The Mariners swapped a bad left-handed hitter (at least in 2022) in Jesse Winker for a likely upgrade in the right-handed bat of Teoscar Hernandez. The Blue Jays, however, did address their lack of left-handed hitting, adding Daulton Varsho, Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier to create a little more balance in their lineup. The Diamondbacks lost Varsho in the trade to Toronto but will have Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas for the entire season. The Cubs added Cody Bellinger, Eric Hosmer, Edwin Rios and Tucker Barnhart, all lefty hitters.
Stat of note: In 2020, 2021 and 2022, right-handed batters had a higher wOBA (weighted on-base average, on the same scale as OBP) than left-handed batters. In 2022, it was .312 for righties and .306 for lefties. In spring training games through Monday, lefties had a .340 wOBA compared to .327 for righties.
Teams who benefitted the most from shifts
Key teams to watch: Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves
There are two ways to look at this: The teams who shifted the most and the teams who gained the most outs because of shifting.
According to SIS data, the Dodgers led the majors in 2022 with full shifts deployed 53% of the time. The Blue Jays, Astros, Minnesota Twins, Marlins and Mariners were also over 40%, while the Rockies shifted just 18% of the time. The Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles and San Diego Padres were under 25%.
All that shifting certainly seemed to help the Dodgers. Their .256 batting average allowed on balls in play was 13 points better than the Astros and Yankees -- and 34 points below the MLB average of .290. Considering only grounders, only the Yankees at .207 allowed a lower average than the Dodgers' .215 mark. The Dodgers had the lowest average allowed on grounders in 2021 (.210), the fourth lowest in 2020 (.204) and the lowest in 2019 (.207). Yes, the quality of pitching factors in here, but no team has been better at positioning its fielders in recent seasons than the Dodgers.
Not only will they be limited in that shifting, but they also have a new middle infield. Freddie Freeman remains at first base, and Muncy will now play third on an everyday basis, but Miguel Rojas takes over at shortstop for the injured Gavin Lux (who in turn was sliding over from second to replace Trea Turner), and rookie Miguel Vargas -- primarily a third baseman in the minors -- will play second base (perhaps with some Mookie Betts mixed in as well).
That makes the Dodgers the most interesting defensive team to watch in 2023. Here's a look at the four others who will be most impacted:
Yankees: We mentioned that league-low batting average allowed on grounders. Even though the Yankees didn't shift much last season (just 25% of the time), they led the majors with an estimated 69 hits saved via the shift, according to SIS. Now they have a rookie shortstop, Anthony Volpe, in the mix. There have been some mixed reviews on his defense in the minors, with some scouts believing he'll be fine at shortstop and others thinking the arm is a little short. Obviously, the Yankees believe in him, but let's see what kind of range he and Gleyber Torres flash up the middle.
Mariners: Seattle was 24th in the majors with a .249 average allowed on grounders. The Mariners have added Kolten Wong to play second base, but while he and Crawford are both former Gold Glove winners, both also fared poorly in Statcast defensive metrics last season. First baseman Ty France and third baseman Eugenio Suarez are average at best, so Seattle's infield defense could range from OK to poor depending on whether Crawford and Wong bounce back.
Marlins: The Marlins were fifth in the majors with a .218 average on grounders. The departed Rojas and Jazz Chisholm had good metrics, but they traded Rojas to the Dodgers and moved Chisholm to center field, with Joey Wendle and Luis Arraez now the primary up-the-middle defenders.
Mets: Francisco Lindor has been vocal about wanting the shift banned, so he's looking forward to making more diving plays. He told SNY that during the offseason he even studied videos of shortstops like Barry Larkin, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins making plays he might now be able to execute during games. "[They] dive, get up and throw the ball, and I was counting their steps, and it was like six, seven steps," Lindor said. "They were catching the Jeter play, catching the ball, jump and throw, and it was like, that was fun."
While we might see more flair from Lindor, the rest of the Mets' infield is notably lacking in range with Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil and Eduardo Escobar. The Mets were 26th last season with a .257 average allowed on grounders.
Let's turn again to the Astros, who ranked fourth in net hits saved via the shift in 2022, and rank first overall since SIS began tracking the category back in 2010 (although most teams didn't begin extreme shifts until much later). Jeremy Pena certainly looks like an elite shortstop and won a Gold Glove as a rookie, and while Jose Altuve had good defensive metrics in 2022, he has one of the weakest arms in the game. How much has the Astros' elite positioning helped Altuve and the infield defense, though?
The Braves are also worth watching here. They ranked as among the best defensive teams in 2022 -- but they lost Gold Glove shortstop Dansby Swanson, with veteran Orlando Arcia taking over. Arcia had a good defensive reputation early in his career with the Brewers (with solid metrics to back it up), but began slipping by 2019 -- one reason the Brewers moved on from him. He last played a full season at shortstop in 2019. Ozzie Albies is similar to Altuve: good range (even better than Altuve), but possesses a weak arm that could be exposed a little more often without the shift.
Range at second base
Key players to watch: Andres Gimenez, Jeff McNeil, Jose Altuve, Kolten Wong, Luis Arraez
Key teams to watch: San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox
Some believe the shift has allowed teams to hide, ahem, lesser fielders at second base. I don't think that has necessarily been the case except in rare circumstances, but it has been one of the primary selling points behind the shift ban: It will allow infielders to display more ability in ranging after balls.
Let's turn to Statcast's outs above average metric among second basemen for a quick review from 2022. It's a counting stat, so playing time factors in, but it's a quick-and-easy evaluation -- although the top guy is not one you associate with acrobatic plays in the field.
At the top: Jonathan Schoop, Gimenez, Trevor Story, Santiago Espinal, Tommy Edman (who will play shortstop in 2023, with Brendan Donovan at second) and Marcus Semien. Schoop is a surprise here and while he'll regress from that total, he has been above average throughout his career. Gimenez came up a shortstop and has the range of one and could clean up on Gold Glove Awards for the next half-decade. It's worth noting that McNeil actually rated at plus-7 here, so maybe he's a better defender than the eye test suggests.
At the bottom: Nolan Gorman (who probably won't play much second base in 2023), Wong, Jorge Polanco, Jonathan India and Brandon Lowe.
Arraez will be tested here. The Twins played him more at first base and third base the past two seasons than second base, but that's where the Marlins plan to play him. His range rated poorly via outs above average, and his arm is also below average.
Boston's middle infield defense will also be key. Enrique Hernandez is the projected regular at shortstop with still no timetable for Adalberto Mondesi's return from a knee injury. Hernandez is 31 and hasn't played 100 innings in a season at shortstop since 2018 (and even then played only 159 innings). He has been a good defender at second base and center field, but there isn't really much recent evidence on how he'll fare at shortstop. With Trevor Story also out, second base looks like a job share between Christian Arroyo and Yu Chang -- and it's not like third baseman Rafael Devers is a Gold Glove candidate.
Groundball pitchers
Key players to watch: Framber Valdez, Sandy Alcantara, Logan Webb, Ranger Suarez, Kyle Wright
Key teams to watch: San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, Miami Marlins, New York Yankees
Since we're talking ground balls, let's take a look at the 10 pitchers who had the highest ground ball rates in 2022 (minimum 100 innings with their batting average allowed on grounders):
1. Valdez (.236)
2. Andre Pallante (.249)
3. Alex Cobb (.276)
4. Webb (.218)
5. Andy Ashby (.265)
6. Suarez (.203)
7. Wright (.192)
8. Graham Ashcroft (.249)
9. Dakota Hudson (.242)
10. Alcantara (.173)
Valdez gets so much movement on his pitches that he induces a lot of weak contact. He's also good at preventing home runs because he's such an extreme groundballer (67%). I think he'll be fine without the shift, even if he does give up a few more singles.
As for Cobb and Webb, the Giants' second-base defense was already a concern (they ranked last in the majors in defensive runs saved). Without the shift, we might see even more balls bouncing into the outfield past Thairo Estrada and company. There's also a big red flag here for Wright, even aside from the fact that he'll begin the season on the injured list. He was likely to regress from that .192 average anyway, plus the Braves lost Swanson.
Alcantara, the 2022 Cy Young winner, actually wasn't that special in limiting hard contact (45th percentile in hard-hit rate), so he was likely to regress anyway from that low average allowed (best among qualified starters). His changeup is his most effective pitch. If more balls start sneaking into the outfield, I wonder if he starts throwing it more often than the 27% of the time last season and goes away from his sinker and four-seamer.
At the opposite end of the spectrum are the fly ball starters who will be least affected by the shift ban: Cristian Javier, Hunter Greene, Michael Kopech, Joe Ryan, Nestor Cortes, Yu Darvish and Max Scherzer are among the pitchers in this group.
The running game
Players who like to steal bases
Key players to watch: Trea Turner, Bobby Witt Jr., Jorge Mateo, Ronald Acuna Jr., Cedric Mullins
During the World Baseball Classic, John Smoltz predicted Turner will steal 70 bases in 2023. He's not the only one to believe stolen bases will go way up because of the rules limiting pickoff throws in conjunction with the slightly bigger bases. I've heard many 70-steal predictions for Turner -- even though he stole just 27 last season and has a career high of 46 in 2017.
Indeed, stolen bases did increase in the upper minors from 2021 to 2022 under the new rules:
Double-A: From 0.79 per team per game to 1.05 (+33%)
Triple-A: From 0.71 to 0.93 (+31%)
I do think we'll see more steals -- but I don't know if we're suddenly going to see a return of 1980s baseball here. The oddsmakers in Vegas seem to agree, as the over/under for Turner's stolen bases sits at 30.5.
Three reasons for this:
It's much harder to run in the majors than the minors. The MLB teams averaged 0.51 steals per game in 2022 -- well below the levels at Double-A or Triple-A. MLB pitchers are simply better at holding runners, and the catchers are better.
Managers will still want players to steal at a high percentage. The break-even point for stolen bases is somewhere above 75%. When stolen bases peaked at 0.85 per game in 1987, the success rate was 70.2%; in 2022, the success rate was exactly 75%.
This is the big one, especially for a star player like Turner: He is unlikely to put his body through the physical rigor of attempting 80 steals a season. Mike Trout is the classic example here. He stole 49 bases as a rookie, but he has quit running completely, stealing one base last year even though -- as we saw in the WBC with that hustle double -- he's still one of the fastest players around. Players will want to run more, and that's not guaranteed, even if it is a little easier.
While all eyes will be on Turner, let's consider some of the most aggressive base stealers in the majors in 2022, using stolen base attempts per time on first base:
Jorge Mateo, Orioles: 0.458. Easily the most aggressive runner in 2022, Mateo led the AL with 35 steals even though he had a lowly .267 OBP and 45 of his 109 hits were for extra bases.
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals: 0.287. He's young and fast and swiped 30 bases last year, but he's another guy who has to improve his OBP (.294) if he wants to steal 50 bases.
Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves: 0.270. He stole 29 bases in 119 games last year even though his knee wasn't 100% after ACL surgery. He got caught 11 times, however, so he might have to improve that percentage to keep his green light -- and the Braves might want him to run less anyway to help keep him healthy.
Kyle Tucker, Astros: 0.206. Tucker didn't run as often as some, but he was 25-for-29 and is now 39-for-45 over the past two seasons. If he continues his trend of running more -- and running smart -- maybe he gets to 40 steals.
Two others to watch:
Esteury Ruiz, Oakland Athletics: Part of the return for Sean Murphy, Ruiz led the minors with 85 stolen bases while hitting .332. Some don't believe the bat will translate to the majors, but he's a burner if he gets on base.
Bubba Thompson, Rangers: He projects as the fourth outfielder, but he swiped 18 bases in just 181 plate appearances last season. He could steal 30-plus bases in a part-time role and at least bring back the role of late-game pinch-runner.
Anyway, I hope I'm wrong and that we do see an explosion of stolen bases. If MLB follows the roughly 30% increase in steals we saw in the minors, we would see an average of 0.66 steals per game per team -- the highest since 0.66 in 2012. (Oddly, there was a two-year blip when steals increased in 2011 and 2012, and then a sudden drop to 0.55 per game in 2013. In general, 0.66 would match the rates last seen in the late '90s.)
Pitchers who already allow a lot of stolen bases
Key pitchers to watch: Noah Syndergaard, Sandy Alcantara, Adam Ottavino
It stands to reason that if a pitcher was already easy to run on, it might be even easier to run on him in 2023. Or maybe things can't get any worse for this group. The top six in stolen bases allowed: Syndergaard (30), Alcantara (24), Ottavino (19), Nick Pivetta (19), Kevin Gausman (18) and Carlos Rodon (18).
Ottavino is an interesting guy here because he was a reliever and allowed his 19 steals in just 65⅔ innings. He's extremely deliberate to the plate, giving runners free reign to go. With Edwin Diaz out for the season for the Mets, Ottavino might at least get a share of the closer duties, but his complete inability to hold runners will make for some high-wire ninth innings.
In general, relievers are easier to run on against starters, so the running game strategy could become even more intriguing in the late innings.
Pitchers who threw the most pickoff attempts
Key pitchers to watch: Zac Gallen, Yu Darvish
Key teams to watch: Texas Rangers, Cleveland Guardians, Arizona Diamondbacks, St. Louis Cardinals
With pitchers limited to two disengagements per plate appearance -- they can throw to a base for a third time only if the pickoff is successful -- those who used a lot of pickoff throws might also be more vulnerable to the running game. Among qualified starters, the leaders in most pickoff throws per baserunner: Gallen (.80), Aaron Nola (.64), Merrill Kelly (.52), Justin Verlander (.48), Jose Quintana (.45), Jameson Taillon (.43), Dylan Cease (.42), Darvish (.41), Jordan Lyles (.41) and Joe Musgrove (.39).
Gallen, with all those pickoff throws, allowed just six stolen bases in 184 innings. Verlander isn't the quickest to the plate, but he managed to keep the steals relatively in check, allowing just 10. Nola had help from one of the best throwers in the game (J.T. Realmuto) and allowed 11 stolen bases -- but also had eight runners caught stealing. That's a nice tradeoff. Darvish throws over a fair amount because he has been easy to run on: Base stealers were 14-of-16 off him in 2022, 15-of-16 in 2021 and 24-of-26 in 2019.
One team to watch here is the Cardinals, who had the luxury of Yadier Molina as their primary catcher the past 18 seasons. Teams simply didn't run on Molina, and the Cardinals tied with the Yankees for fewest stolen bases allowed last season. While new catcher Willson Contreras has a solid arm -- he has thrown out 30% of base stealers in his career compared to the league average of 26% -- he's not Molina. One interesting note, however: Contreras uses the back pick to first base more than any other catcher, attempting more pickoff throws than the next two catchers combined last year. The new rules set no limit on those types of pickoffs.
I'm also looking at the Rangers, who led the majors last season with 128 steals. Besides Thompson, they have two sneaky-good runners in Semien and Adolis Garcia, who both swiped 25 bases last year, plus Leody Taveras, who has the elite speed to improve on his 11 steals. The Guardians were right behind the Rangers with 119 steals and had five players swipe at least 18 bases. Let's see how aggressive manager Terry Francona gets, but the last team with five players to steal 20-plus bases was the 1996 Astros -- and if the running game goes even more wild than expected, only two teams (the 1976 A's and 1985 Cardinals) have had five players steal 30 bases.
The Diamondbacks have three burners in the outfield, all of whom ranked in the 95th percentile or higher in sprint speed: McCarthy (who stole 23 bases in half a season), rookie Carroll (the fastest player in the majors, stole 31 bases in the minors) and Thomas, plus Josh Rojas, who stole 23 bases. McCarthy, Carroll and Rojas were also all efficient base stealers, so the Diamondbacks might end up extracting more value from their base stealing than any other club.
Will this rule have a major impact? It's hard to know. Pitchers have become better at preventing the running game, not so much by throwing over to first base but by speeding up their deliveries to home plate. The cat-and-mouse strategy between pitcher and runner and when to throw over certainly will be fascinating, but as long as the pitcher keeps that second pickoff throw in his pocket (or even a third one), the runner can't assume anything. On the other hand, the pitch clock will also limit a pitcher's ability to freeze the runner by holding the ball or varying the timing on his delivery.
Even during spring training, you heard players say they'll have to see how this plays out. No doubt, analytics staffs will be tracking things like when and how often a pitcher is using his pickoff attempts. For what it's worth, stolen bases were up notably this spring compared to the past two full spring trainings:
2023: 0.87 per game
2021: 0.59 per game
2019: 0.67 per game
The pitch clock
Pitchers who worked slowly
Key pitchers to watch: Kenley Jansen, Devin Williams, Ryan Pressly, Corbin Burnes, Justin Verlander
For the most part, the pitchers to watch here are relievers. Statcast monitored pitch tempo in 2022 -- the time between pitches (which isn't quite the same as a pitch timer but is a good proxy). The 45 slowest pitchers with nobody on base listed on the leaderboard were all relievers. The second-slowest-working starter was a big name, however: Ohtani.
Among the slowest relievers: Jonathan Loaisiga, Giovanny Gallegos, Jansen, Williams, Pressly, Ryan Helsley and Emmanuel Clase, all closers or high-leverage guys. Other slow-working starters: Jose Suarez, Luis Garcia, Burnes, Darvish, Lucas Giolito, Verlander and Nola, all ranking 300th or lower on the overall list of 399 pitchers.
With runners on base, it's mostly the same list, except the pitchers worked even slower: Jansen, Gallegos and Williams were the slowest, all averaging at least 30 seconds between pitches. The slowest starters were Josiah Gray, Ohtani, Garcia, Gallen, Martin Perez and Nola.
We can also consider the pitchers who slowed down the most with runners on base compared to with nobody on. The new rules allow for 15 seconds with nobody on base and 20 seconds with runners on, but the following pitchers averaged at least an additional 8.5 seconds between pitches with runners on base last season: Jhoan Duran, Gallen, Lance McCullers Jr., MacKenzie Gore, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Zack Wheeler, Triston McKenzie and Perez. Zach Eflin, Musgrove and Max Fried were among those who slowed down at least eight seconds.
These are some of the pitchers who will have to make the biggest adjustments in their tempo. Is it a big deal? We'll find out.
Batters who worked slowly
Key batters to watch: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Juan Soto, Willson Contreras, Bryce Harper
Many in the game believe it's actually the batters who will have to make the bigger adjustments, no longer able to step out of the box, adjust their batting gloves and take their own sweet time. While the slowest pitchers are slower than the slowest batters, among those batters who will have to speed up their approach:
Alonso, McNeil, Mark Canha and Brandon Nimmo -- four members of the Mets -- all ranked among the eight slowest batters with runners on base.
Several Astros ranked in the bottom 25: Chas McCormick, Brantley, Altuve, Tucker and new first baseman Jose Abreu.
New Cardinals catcher Contreras ranked as the seventh-slowest batter with runners on.
Soto loves to step out and oftentimes stare down the pitcher between pitches. He averaged 20.2 seconds between pitches with nobody on and 24.9 with runners on, equivalent to 14.2 and 18.9 with the timer -- under the rulebook limit, but he'll have to work a little quicker.
Harper was also one of the slowest workers, but he won't have a month of spring training to work on a faster approach.
The cliché is that baseball is a game of adjustments; that's certainly true in 2023. It should make for a compelling regular season -- and, I believe, a more engaging, exciting brand of baseball.