To coincide with ESPN's ranking of the top 100 players in baseball for 2023, I'm predicting who will be the next ones from each team to make our MLB Rank list.
For the most part, that means either they will make the list before the 2024 or 2025 season because every team will have players falling in and out of contention every year. So it seems silly to project a minor leaguer who is years away from making the big leagues -- though there are circumstances where a prospect makes sense as my pick.
In 2022, 109 players posted 3.0 WAR or higher per FanGraphs, so that's a reasonable line to draw to project someone to make this list. It's important to note that this doesn't mean posting one three-win season, but being perceived as being a three-win talent looking forward, which are two very different things. Only a couple of relievers can get to this leverage-adjusted level of performance (there's exactly two on this year's list), and even fewer are seen as likely to repeat it. The same goes for players with more limited physical tools. For reference on some of the more unfamiliar names, here is my 2023 top 100 prospects list.
National League
Atlanta Braves
Kyle Wright, RHP
Wright is back on track from some early career hiccups and is trending like he'll be on this list next season, with normal young pitcher caveats applying. Vaughn Grissom was initially my pick here but his bizarre optioning to Triple-A allows Wright to win the coin flip, which normally goes to a position player.
New York Mets
Brett Baty, 3B
There's a number of good options here, such as Kodai Senga on the pitching side. The top of the Mets' prospects list also includes top 100 types on the 40-man roster in Francisco Alvarez, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos. Baty has the best combo of hit, power and defensive value along with the easiest path to regular playing time.
Washington Nationals
James Wood, RF
The Nats' aggressive rebuild is mostly contingent on the past couple of draft and international signing classes along with the trade hauls from Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Juan Soto. Keibert Ruiz, CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore have all reached the big leagues but aren't slam dunks to cleanly make this list. Wood has the potential to be the best prospect by midseason and show up in the big leagues in 2024.
Philadelphia Phillies
Alec Bohm, 3B
This one was initially going to be Andrew Painter -- and by a comfortable margin -- but his elbow injury made me hesitant. The odds are now much higher that he has to miss a year due to surgery before he can post a 180-inning season, look like a frontline-type and make this list. Rhys Hoskins was the replacement going into a walk year but he then tore his ACL in a spring training game on Thursday. Enter Bohm! He's never quite tapped into his plus raw power in pro ball but if he can do that while showing average-ish contact skills, he'll make the list.
Miami Marlins
Eury Perez, RHP
Perez is the best pitching prospect in baseball and on track for a big league debut this season. All four of the other options have had Tommy John surgery, with two coming off of it recently (Jake Eder and Max Meyer). Dax Fulton likely won't get a chance in the big leagues until 2024, while the best bet of this group of four, Jesus Luzardo, has to hit something like his 80th-percentile outcome this year to be in the discussion.
Chicago Cubs
Ian Happ, LF
I'll take another accomplished hitter going into a walk year. Happ posted a 3.5 WAR season last year and has been an above-average hitter his entire career. Nico Hoerner posted a 4.0 WAR last season and still didn't make it -- and I think that's a high-water mark for him -- so he's a close second. Seiya Suzuki is another viable breakthrough candidate along with Pete Crow-Armstrong, though he may be more of a 2024 candidate.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Oneil Cruz, SS
Cruz is by far the best option here and has one of the highest upsides in all of baseball. Mitch Keller could also be an option if he continues his breakthrough performances. The prospect I like most is Termarr Johnson, but he's still a teenager who won't get out of High-A this season.
Cincinnati Reds
Elly De La Cruz, SS
Like Cruz, Elly De La Cruz has one of the highest upsides and should make his big league debut this season. De La Cruz is probably the cornerstone of the Reds' rebuild, but if there's a debate to be made about that, it would include Hunter Greene and possibly Jonathan India. Both are viable options, as is sleeper pick Nick Lodolo.
St. Louis Cardinals
Jordan Walker, RF
Tommy Edman is seriously underrated, posting a 5.6 WAR season last year. But if he didn't make the list after that type of season, then he might not be making it because I don't believe he can top that number. Since there's some measure of hype baked in, I'll go with Walker, arguably the player with the most buzz in spring training (along with Anthony Volpe) and someone with a chance of wreaking havoc for pitchers this year like Julio Rodriguez or Adley Rutschman did last season. The Cards have a ton of interesting young hitters who could be answers to this question, but they're a tier below Walker and Edman. They include Tyler O'Neill, Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn, Lars Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson.
Milwaukee Brewers
Devin Williams, RHP
You might bet on the resurgence of Christian Yelich, a breakthrough for Luis Urias, William Contreras building on his breakout, or the potential of one of the most electric players on Earth in Jackson Chourio. But I'll take Williams. I believe he belongs on this year's list already, with Emmanuel Clase as the only relievers on the list after Edwin Diaz's injury.
San Diego Padres
Ha-Seong Kim, 2B
It's difficult for a reliever to make the list, though Josh Hader would be a good addition. It's also hard on a star-studded team to bet on a hitter that hasn't gotten out of High-A yet, but Jackson Merrill has all the makings of a player who will be on this list eventually. I believe this comes down to which position player takes a step forward: Jake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham or Kim. I believe Kim has the best chance to go to another level.
San Francisco Giants
Kyle Harrison, LHP
Joey Bart might take a step forward, but I've been waiting a few years for things to click for him at the plate. Marco Luciano is still another year or two away. Mike Yastrzemski has probably peaked. Michael Conforto is my second-best option on a bounce-back campaign after shoulder surgery, but Harrison is the pick here. He could be a frontline big league starter as soon as midseason.
Colorado Rockies
Ezequiel Tovar, SS
Prospect Zac Veen may be another year or two away. Kris Bryant and German Marquez don't seem like they have much room for improvement. I don't believe our MLB Rank voters will see Ryan McMahon as the kind of player who is worthy of the top 100. Tovar figures to have a buzzy rookie of the year campaign this season as a skilled shortstop who looks like he will break camp as the everyday player.
Arizona Diamondbacks
There's a collection of young talent here, but Moreno is ready for a full-time catching role and to make that leap this season. Brandon Pfaadt is a sneaky ROY candidate but it's only sneaky because Ryne Nelson is ahead of him in line for a rotation chance this year. Alek Thomas has all the skills to break through, but the tools may be a tick short. Jordan Lawlar might show up in the big leagues in 2024 as the top prospect in baseball, so he's the next-best option after Moreno.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Miguel Vargas, 2B
As usual, the Dodgers have an embarrassment of riches with young players. Vargas has a real shot at a ROY campaign this year. Diego Cartaya is a year or two away, while Dustin May, Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller are all pitchers so they lose the coin flip with Vargas. And Max Muncy has probably already peaked.
American League
Baltimore Orioles
Jackson Holliday, SS
I'm hesitant to bet on Grayson Rodriguez or Kyle Bradish with so many strong position players coming through this system. Ryan Mountcastle and Anthony Santander are one notch away from jumping into contention, but they get a bit lost in all the solid corner bats that didn't make the list. Holliday is on the short list to be the top prospect at this time next year and could have a shot to make the big leagues at age 19 or 20.
New York Yankees
Anthony Volpe, SS
The buzz around Volpe from spring training surely leads to this conclusion, particularly with the incessant Derek Jeter comparisons. Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton and Harrison Bader have probably already seen their career years, so Volpe is the heavy favorite with Jasson Dominguez lingering if Volpe doesn't immediately leap into perennial All-Star territory.
Toronto Blue Jays
It was tempting to toss the Jays top prospect Ricky Tiedemann on here, but he's a pitcher coming off of a big velocity spike and huge jump, so plateauing a bit in 2023 is the most likely outcome. You might bet on a Jose Berrios' resurgence or an Orelvis Martinez breakthrough, but I think Kirk making one more move forward is the best bet as the next Jay to make this list.
Tampa Bay Rays
Brandon Lowe, 2B
The Rays assembly line of unheralded but solid young players continues. Isaac Paredes, Curtis Mead, Josh Lowe and Brandon Lowe are the strongest candidates. I'll give Lowe the edge for the longest track record of being solid in the big leagues, dented a bit by a down year in 2022.
Boston Red Sox
Marcelo Mayer, SS
Despite Red Sox fandom believing I hate Masataka Yoshida, I actually think he's a strong everyday player. I just quoted industry executives who largely thought the Red Sox overpaid for a smaller-in-stature left fielder who has to hit a lot to live up to his contract. But he might do just that! He's a candidate to hit his way onto the list, as is ROY candidate Triston Casas, or Alex Verdugo.
Chris Sale and Trevor Story are veterans who could reach top form again in a few years ago and find their way onto this list, but I think the most likely addition to the top 100 is Mayer, likely after the 2024 season but possibly after this season. He is one of a handful of players (most of who are mentioned here) to be the top prospect in baseball at this time next year, with the potential to be a foundational piece for the next decade.
Cleveland Guardians
Amed Rosario, SS
Since it's difficult for relievers to make this list, it's foolish to guess James Karinchak here. I want to list prospects close to making the big leagues like Daniel Espino, Gavin Williams, Brayan Rocchio and Bo Naylor, but the pitchers are risky types, as a number of solid mid-rotation types didn't make it this year. There are a ton of solid big leaguers here, but I think the potential walk-year breakout of Rosario is the best option from this group.
Chicago White Sox
Yoan Moncada, 3B
Moncada is 27 -- traditionally around when position players are at their peak -- and he has already posted four- and five-win seasons (in 2021 and 2019, respectively). I'll bet on him doing that again and finding the list next year, but there's a number of solid candidates for the White Sox. Andrew Vaughn could have his breakout big league season this year, while prospects Colson Montgomery or Oscar Colas could come up and dominate. I also wouldn't count out veterans Andrew Benintendi and Lance Lynn, who could post career years and jump onto the list as well.
Detroit Tigers
Riley Greene, CF
Greene has had all the makings of being on this list since his underclass days in high school, so he's one of my strongest bets to make it next year. Buzz is strong that Spencer Torkelson will turn the corner so he's a strong second. Javier Baez, Eduardo Rodriguez and Austin Meadows are three veteran players that are also decent bets.
Kansas City Royals
I'm solid on the idea that Pasquantino will break through to become a core piece to the Royals future. Brady Singer is the other strong candidate here, though the concern is that he's merely a good mid-rotation starter rather than a frontline one.
Minnesota Twins
Jose Miranda, 3B
I like Miranda from a deep group of solid options. Miranda has top 100 talent and a strong full season of big league performance under his belt. In order to jump Miranda, Jhoan Duran will have to become a top five reliever in the big leagues or move to the rotation, Sonny Gray will need a career year and prospect position players like Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis or Edouard Julien will need to mash at a rookie of the year level.
Los Angeles Angels
Zach Neto, SS
There could be an Anthony Rendon renaissance, a Logan O'Hoppe ROY season or continued improvement from lefties Reid Detmers or Patrick Sandoval. Instead, I'll take the Angels' 2022 first-rounder who has already hit well in Double-A, has plus speed, a plus glove at short, a plus arm and sneaky power.
Houston Astros
Hunter Brown, RHP
There aren't many options here with a lower-tier farm system and a team packed with established stars comfortably on the top 100 list and solid role players who will likely never make it. Brown is the rare young Astro with All-Star upside, and he may prove it this year.
Seattle Mariners
Eugenio Suarez, 3B
I'm surprised Suarez didn't make the list with a 4.1 WAR and 31 homers last season, so I'll bet he does something like that again and sneaks on next year. Andres Munoz would need to jump into the category of top five relievers to make the list, though that's not all that farfetched. Robbie Ray has probably already peaked. I'm hesitant to bet on catchers who aren't solid athletes, so Cal Raleigh is a near miss. I'd love to believe Jarred Kelenic will hit his way onto next year's list, but I'll need more evidence.
Texas Rangers
Josh Jung, 3B
Jung was a leading ROY candidate at this time last year until he missed most of the season with a shoulder injury. He looks to be pick up where he left off. Nathaniel Lowe, Jonah Heim and Adolis Garcia are in a spot where a breakthrough season could get them on the list, while prospects Evan Carter and Owen White are leading candidates to make a big jump.
Oakland Athletics
Tyler Soderstrom, C/1B
There are several solid young players in this rebuild who could break through, but Soderstrom is the best bet of the group. If I'm wrong it's because Shea Langeliers, Zack Gelof, Ken Waldichuk or maybe Esteury Ruiz had a bigger breakthrough.