Our list of the top 100 players in MLB for 2023 is out. Naturally, it's time to talk about what we got wrong.
We asked four of our voters -- Bradford Doolittle, Buster Olney, Jeff Passan and David Schoenfield -- to take a critical look at our MLB Rank list and tell us what they and their colleagues messed up. Who did we leave out? Who's too high or too low? And what players will crack the top 100 -- and even the top five -- in the future?
Here is what they had to say.
Who is the biggest snub from our list?
Passan: Tommy Edman should be used to this by now. At the All-Star break last season, Edman's 3.2 fWAR ranked 16th among everyday players in MLB, squarely between Mookie Betts and Julio Rodriguez, and he was not selected to the National League All-Star team. At the end of the year, he dropped all the way to ... 17th among all position players -- with 5.6 WAR. While playing an excellent shortstop, where he was a Gold Glove finalist in addition to a nominee for the utility role. And that was a year after winning the Gold Glove at second base.
Plenty of really good players warranted at least a look at the top 100: Jake Cronenworth, Cal Raleigh, Christian Walker, Ian Happ, George Kirby. None has a beef quite as strong as Edman's.
Olney: Alejandro Kirk is among the seven or eight best catchers in the majors, and he's not in the top 100 players? I'm confused. Last year, in his age-23 season, Kirk had an on-base percentage of .372, won a Silver Slugger, made the American League All-Star team, served an excellent pitching staff and scored very well in pitch-framing numbers; only three catchers were better. What were we thinking?
Schoenfield: I'll admit that I had trouble coming up with an obvious snub. Good job, voters! The guy I hope we're wrong about is Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz. He's certainly one of the most entertaining players in the game with his power, speed and arm strength -- and you want somebody who is so fun to watch to also be as valuable as his highlight reels. However, his range of outcomes is extreme due to his Joey Gallo-esque strikeout rate and defensive ceiling, but we could be looking at a 30-30 shortstop -- or, as Cruz has stated as a goal, 40-40.
Doolittle: Christian Yelich isn't a snub, as he earned his way out of the top 100 by stacking up disappointing seasons, but I'm going to put him here. It's just worth noticing that a player who was seventh in 2019, fourth in 2020 and ninth in 2021 -- our most recent rankings -- is no longer a viable consideration for the top 100. The projection systems rate him as an average player at this point, a mighty drop for someone who went from an MVP at 27 to an afterthought at 31.
Yelich still gets on base and generates elite exit velocities on occasion. He just doesn't barrel up balls often enough, and last season, it wasn't just the homers that were missing, but his line-drive rate plummeted as well. He's also become something of a statue on defense. So you might say Yelich snubbed himself. But it's just hard to accept that this is what Yelich is going to be from here on out. Still, after three seasons with an aggregate .388 slugging percentage, it's basically now or never for the superstar version of Yelich to make his return.
Which player in the top 100 is most underrated?
Passan: I'm sorry, but in no sane world are there 28 better starting pitchers than Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Kevin Gausman. Whatever you might think of two-pitch pitchers -- Gausman throws a slider, but his fastball-splitter combination carries him -- understand that potential bias should not apply to Gausman.
The 32-year-old is an extreme strike-thrower, twirling an MLB-best 70.1% of his pitches for strikes last year. The four pitchers with better K-BB% than him are ranked first, 19th, 34th and 26th overall on our list, respectively. Gausman is 85th -- behind a reliever, no less. Sleep on Gausman at your own peril. He's bound to have better batted-ball luck than last year, when his BABIP was the second highest in MLB at .363. When that happens, he'll climb right back up the list where he belongs.
Olney: Adley Rutschman is 35th on our list, and I bet that if you were to hold an MLB player draft among current heads of baseball operations, Rutchsman wouldn't fall anywhere close to that; he'd be among the first 15 to 20 players chosen. Some executives say he's the best catcher in the majors right now, an elite offensive player and an excellent defender at this premium defensive position, excelling at maintaining his focus pitch to pitch on both sides of the ball. The guy checks every box and could be the premier player at this spot for a whole lot of years.
Schoenfield: We all know the so-called five tools for position players: hitting, power, speed, defense and throwing arm. Well, let's call durability a sixth tool, and it's the one that helps make Marcus Semien vastly underrated.
He played 162 games in 2019, 162 games in 2021 and 161 games last season. His rank in bWAR among all position players those three seasons: third, first and, in a year in which he didn't homer in his first 43 games, 16th. Over the past four seasons, he's second in bWAR, third in runs, seventh in home runs and second in extra-base hits. And he comes in 66th on our list. It's noteworthy that the player immediately above him is Byron Buxton -- no doubt more exciting and tooled up than Semien, but a player who has difficulty staying on the field.
Doolittle: Yordan Alvarez might be the most complete hitter in the game, and while our top 10 is awfully stacked, I'm finding a place for him somewhere in the 5-to-10 range. Lefties, righties, home, road ... whatever split you have, Alvarez dominates it. He hits for average, is patient but not passive and no one except Aaron Judge hits the ball harder more consistently. The guy hit a clutch homer over the batter's eye at Minute Maid Park in the deciding game of the World Series, for goodness sake. I suspect he's not done getting better, if only because skittish pitchers might force him into so many walks that he ends up in the .450-plus OBP range.
Which player in the top 100 is most overrated?
Passan: Watching Freddie Freeman hit a baseball conjures all sorts of good feelings. The simplicity of his left-handed stroke, the ability to drive the ball to the opposite field, the bad-ball barrels -- it's symphonic, really, and to call him the best pure hitter in baseball wouldn't be an exaggeration. He's just not the fifth-best player in the sport.
To achieve that level of excellence as a first baseman, a position in which the defensive value simply lags, necessitates a level of hitting so above and beyond the rest of the league that it's almost impossible to reach. Certainly home runs are not the be-all and end-all, but Freeman's 21 last season were barely one-third of Aaron Judge's total -- and ranked 14th among first basemen, one behind Luke Voit, who signed a minor league deal this winter. Freeman's excellence with the bat cannot be denied. It's just not enough to place him much higher than 12th.
Olney: Few players look the part more than Luis Robert does with the power and the speed and the defense. But at some point, you have to stay on the field to justify a top-100 standing, and he's missed a ton of games -- 94 in 2021 and 64 in 2022. The most homers he's hit in any season is 13, and the most steals he's racked up is 11. It's clear from his production in his truncated seasons that he's capable of greatness, but if he's going to be ranked on this list ahead of someone like Tommy Edman, who is consistent and durable, he's got to be in the lineup more often.
Schoenfield: Look, I have a Vladimir Guerrero Expos jersey hanging in my closet, so I'm not anti-Guerrero family here. But let's face the facts: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (No. 16) has four seasons in the majors and has been great (with a capital G) in just one of them: 2021. To be fair, he was the best or second-best hitter in baseball that season, but that was also Juiced Ball II -- a lot of players put up some suspect numbers.
We're projecting forward and Guerrero is obviously young enough to make some adjustments, but he ranks just one spot behind Yordan Alvarez, who was not only way better in 2022 but owns a 163 career OPS+ compared to Guerrero's 135. For now, I'd rank the more consistent, all-around players such as Francisco Lindor, J.T. Realmuto and Carlos Correa ahead of Vladdy Jr.
Doolittle: I get that Gunnar Henderson is the current top prospect in baseball and he looked like the real deal during his debut last season. But I need to see more than 132 big league plate appearances before I'm handing him a spot in the top 100, much less the top 75. Granted, that's more a philosophical choice than a specific criticism of Henderson. Indeed, I don't have any specific criticisms of Henderson. He's electric and I'll be watching him enthusiastically. But the majors are hard and I need to see more.
Which player outside the top 50 could jump into the top 10 next year?
Passan: It's clear from Julio Rodriguez's ascent that the electorate loves hard-hitting, fast center fielders -- and Corbin Carroll, the 22-year-old to whom the Arizona Diamondbacks just guaranteed $111 million, fits the description. Nobody in MLB is faster than Carroll, and he could steal 50 bases this season. In 123 games across Double-A, Triple-A and the big leagues last year, he whacked 27 home runs.
Perhaps the only thing holding Carroll back from making a leap up from No. 73 is Arizona's plan to use Alek Thomas as its primary center fielder, even though evaluators say they believe Carroll could be the superior defender. Maybe Carroll doesn't jump into the top 10 because of that, but even if he's primarily in right field, the rest of his tools and skills are enough to keep him in consideration.
Olney: It's unclear to me why Jose Ramirez is not already in the top 10, given his staggering performance. Since the start of the 2016 season, the only position players with more fWAR are Mike Trout and Mookie Betts. Repeat that to yourself: Only Trout and Betts have produced more over the past seven seasons. And it's not as if Ramirez is fading -- last season, he had 29 homers, 20 stolen bases and 6.2 fWAR. He's 30 years old and in the sweet spot in his career. So yeah, I bet he jumps from his current standing at No. 13 to somewhere in the top 10.
Schoenfield: Cristian Javier (No. 70) might be my AL Cy Young pick. Without Justin Verlander and with Lance McCullers Jr. starting the season on the injured list, the Houston Astros might be forced to go to a true five-man rotation, so I expect Javier to ramp up another 35 innings or so from the 148⅔ he pitched last year (when he made just 25 starts). If he pitches at the same dominant level -- batters hit .170 against him and he struck out 194 batters -- he's going to win a lot of games with a low ERA.
Doolittle: Is it just me, or does it feel like people are already overlooking Bobby Witt Jr. after he was in the conversation just a year ago for top overall prospect status along with Julio Rodriguez and Adley Rutschman? I see a major second-year leap for Witt. That could mean 30 homers and, given the new rules, 40 to 45 stolen bases, easy. I expect his defense to be better under Kansas City's new coaching staff, and because he's a hard worker, I expect his swing decisions to improve. He's got top-10 talent, and I predict he'll remind us all of that in the months to come.
Predict the top five for 2026
Passan:
1. Shohei Ohtani
2. Juan Soto
3. Adley Rutschman
4. Julio Rodriguez
5. Fernando Tatis Jr.
This is all about age and the bet that in-their-prime players will compose the top of the list. Which, considering this year's top five consists of players who are 28, 31, 30, 30 and 33, is probably not very smart! But Nos. 2-5 will be 27 or younger in 2026, and Ohtani is the outlier of outliers.
Olney:
1. Shohei Ohtani
2. Juan Soto
3. Julio Rodriguez
4. Ronald Acuna Jr.
5. Adley Rutschman
As I assessed my top five players for 2026, I went with layers-deep analytics -- guessing. It's based on the ascension of some players, such as Rodriguez and Rutchsman, and the impact of Father Time on other players.
Schoenfield:
1. Shohei Ohtani
2. Julio Rodriguez
3. Adley Rutschman
4. Michael Harris II
5. Aaron Judge
I won't list all the players I considered, but the remarkable thing about Ohtani is that just a couple years ago, after Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2019 pitching season and all but 1⅔ innings in 2020, many called for him to give up pitching and just focus on hitting. Instead, he's emerged as a Cy Young candidate. Judge will be 34 in 2026, at the tail end of my comfort level for including a player here, but his power, on-base skills and plus defense should continue to age well.
Doolittle:
1. Shohei Ohtani
2. Juan Soto
3. Mookie Betts
4. Mike Trout
5. Adley Rutschman
Three years is and isn't a long time in MLB when it comes to changes in the general pecking order. There is a great deal of year-to-year attrition, but that tends to occur below the top tier of talent, which is just part of someone climbing to these ranks anyway. There are exceptions. We've seen enough of Rodriguez (who just missed my top five) and Rustchman, for example, to believe their prospect hype is matched by their ability. Beyond that, there is little reason to think that the very cream of the talent pool is going to age out by 2026, so I'm not counting on Soto, Betts or Trout to fall out of the five anytime soon.