The Major League Baseball awards for 2022 are now in the books -- and we're already looking ahead to next season.
Who are the top candidates to win Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and MVP honors for the 2023 season? Will Aaron Judge or Paul Goldschmidt repeat as MVP? Can anyone outperform Sandy Alcantara or Justin Verlander on the mound? And which first-year stars will emerge to follow in the footsteps of top 2022 rookies Julio Rodriguez and Michael Harris II?
We break down the favorites and the sleepers -- and offer our early picks for who will win each major award at this time next year.
AL Rookie of the Year
The favorites: Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox (NR on Kiley McDaniel's midseason top 50); Josh Jung, Texas Rangers (No. 24); Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles (No. 2); Bo Naylor (NR), Cleveland Guardians; Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles (No. 7); Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees (No. 3).
Sleepers to watch: Oakland Athletics lefty Ken Waldichuk was the top prospect in the deal that sent Frankie Montas to New York and struck out 137 in 95 innings in the minors and 33 in 34 2/3 innings for the A's. He has a job and that's the first step. You might have seen Hunter Brown throwing smoke in relief for the Houston Astros this past postseason, but as a starter in Triple-A, he had a 2.55 ERA with 134 K's in 106 innings. There might not be room for him in the rotation (unless Verlander leaves), but his stuff is electric. Los Angeles Angels catcher Logan O'Hoppe came over from the Philadelphia Phillies for Brandon Marsh. He hit .283 with 26 home runs at Double-A but could skip Triple-A and battle Max Stassi for the starting job.
The Tampa Bay Rays' Jonathan Aranda is an older prospect (he'll be 25 in May), but Ji-Man Choi being traded away could open up first base for him after he hit .318/.394/.521 at Triple-A. He can also play second or third. Or maybe teammate Curtis Mead, another guy who has played all over the infield, takes that job after hitting .298/.390/.532. He's younger and the better prospect, but he might need a little time in Triple-A. -- Schoenfield
And our picks are ...
Doolittle: The players listed as favorites for all these awards are based on a quick assessment of early 2023 projections. For this category, it's a guess on which top prospects are most likely to be on the big league roster for most of next season. Henderson, rated as baseball's top prospect in some quarters, already looked more than ready for the majors during his late-season call-up while Baltimore was fighting for a postseason bid. He's got to be the favorite.
Schoenfield: Henderson feels like the obvious pick here after a terrific minor league season and strong showing down the stretch in the majors. His plate discipline bodes well for a smooth transition in his first full season. Two potential issues that could keep him from winning: (1) what position he ends up at and how good his defense is; and (2) his ability to hit left-handers, after hitting just .208/.316/.354 across the minors and majors in 2022 (including 3-for-23 in the majors). I don't think the Orioles sit him regularly against lefties, but they could sit him against some of the better lefties, and that would cut into his overall playing time a bit.
NL Rookie of the Year
The favorites: Francisco Alvarez, New York Mets (No. 4); Brett Baty, Mets (No. 37); Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks (No. 1); Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies (No. 40); Miguel Vargas, Los Angeles Dodgers (No. 42); Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals (No. 5).
Sleepers to watch: Phillies right-hander Andrew Painter doesn't even turn 20 until April, but he already has reached Double-A after a dominant minor league season (155 SO, 25 BB, 67 H in 103.2 IP). Don't rule out the idea of him joining the rotation early in the season.
The Dodgers have pitchers Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone, both of whom could factor into the rotation. Stone soared through three levels of the minors with a 1.48 ERA and 168 K's in 121 2/3 IP. Cardinals outfielder Alec Burleson hit .331 with 20 home runs at Triple-A; he's at least a DH candidate. Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz is likely ticketed for more time in the minors, but he's one of the top prospects there (.304, 28 HRs, 47 SBs in 2022, mostly in High A). -- Schoenfield
And our picks are ...
Doolittle: Maybe it's my sense of New York-related hype from my Midwestern perch, but it seems to me that if Alvarez can simply win the job as the Mets' regular catcher in spring training, he has to be the favorite. He's such a good hitter that he should get plenty of time at DH when he's not behind the plate. That'll be tough to beat.
Schoenfield: Carroll has the pedigree: top pick, top prospect, performed well in the minors in 2022 despite missing nearly two full seasons of action due to COVID-19 and an injury (he hit .307 with 24 home runs and 31 steals). He also hit well in a September call-up (133 OPS+ in 32 games). The Diamondbacks have four outfielders who all hit left-handed, so we'll see how they sort things out and whether Carroll ends up in center field or left field. If he ends up in left field, he could have a Steven Kwan-type rookie season, batting leadoff with Gold Glove defense (and a little more power than Kwan).
AL Cy Young
The favorites: Shane Bieber, Guardians; Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners; Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox; Gerrit Cole, Yankees; Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays; Shohei Ohtani, Angels; Shane McClanahan, Rays; Framber Valdez, Astros.
Sleepers to watch: You saw how unhittable Cristian Javier's top-of-the-zone fastball can be in the postseason (batters hit .181 against it). So maybe he's not a sleeper, but give him a full season in the Astros' rotation (he pitched 148 innings in 2022 after starting the season in the bullpen) and watch out. Seattle's George Kirby went 8-5 with a 3.39 ERA (2.99 FIP) as a rookie. He pounds the zone, and if he can improve against left-handed hitters, that ERA could drop significantly. Lucas Giolito had a rough 2022 (4.90 ERA) for the White Sox, but he picked up down-ballot Cy Young votes in 2019, 2020 and 2021. Cleveland's Triston McKenzie had a breakout season (2.96 ERA, 196 SO), so maybe, similar to Javier, he's no longer a sleeper. -- Schoenfield
And our picks are ...
Doolittle: If Verlander winds up back in the AL, he'll join this list. Same for fellow free agents Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon. Still, I'll go with Ohtani, who I thought should have been a finalist for his 2022 performance. It just seems like destiny that he's going to win a Cy Young at some point, so next season is as good as any, especially since it's a platform season for him. Not that he needs to showcase himself to get paid, because that's going to happen no matter what.
Schoenfield: McClanahan. He was the favorite at the All-Star break when he was 10-3 with a 1.71 ERA, but his second half wasn't as dominant (4.20 ERA) and he missed a couple of weeks in September with a shoulder impingement, finishing with a 2.54 ERA. He should be able to improve upon 2022's 166 innings and get close to 200 innings to boost his case.
NL Cy Young
The favorites: Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins; Corbin Burnes; Milwaukee Brewers; Max Fried, Atlanta Braves; Aaron Nola, Phillies; Max Scherzer, Mets; Julio Urias, Dodgers; Zack Wheeler, Phillies.
Sleepers to watch: Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff finished fifth in the 2021 voting, so he has been here before. He has morphed into more of a fly ball pitcher, which is fine unless a livelier baseball returns. If Clayton Kershaw can get back to 175 innings, which he last did in 2019, he might have a shot given his 2.28 ERA and .207 average allowed in 2022 with the Dodgers. The Cincinnati Reds' Nick Lodolo is a deep sleeper. He had a 2.92 ERA over his final 13 starts as a rookie. He's in the wrong park and needs to cut down on the walks and hit batters (19!), but his curveball is already one of the best in the game. -- Schoenfield
And our picks are ...
Doolittle: Again, any and all of the Verlander/deGrom/Rodon group join this list if they sign with an NL team this offseason. With both leagues, if forced to choose between a pitcher on my favorites list and the entire field of starters, I'd pick the field. That's the nature of Cy Young prognostication. Forced to choose, however, I'll go with Fried. His dogged determination should mean continued success and perhaps even improvement, and after getting a lot of support in 2020 and 2022, it might simply be his turn if he posts another elite season. He has averaged 5.2 bWAR over the past two seasons and is adding volume to the mix as he goes along.
Schoenfield: I'm going with someone who falls in between the favorites and the sleepers here. Will Arizona's Zac Gallen have another scoreless streak of 44 1/3 innings like he did last August and September? No, probably not. Since his run came late in the season, his 2.54 ERA flew under the radar, but don't be surprised if he does it again. He improved his control in 2022, he'll have a terrific outfield defense behind him to help and lefties have trouble squaring him up (.140 average last season).
AL MVP
The favorites: Yordan Alvarez, Astros; Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays; Shohei Ohtani, Angels; Julio Rodriguez, Mariners; Adley Rutschman, Orioles; Mike Trout; Angels.
Sleepers to watch: After a couple of years battling injuries, Alex Bregman finally looked like an elite hitter again in the second half (.287/.379/.515). Teammate Kyle Tucker has had back-to-back 5-WAR seasons and should be in his prime at age 26. And what if Jeremy Pena hits in the regular season like he did in the postseason? Wait, can three guys on the Astros really be sleepers? In the non-Astros category, we can still dream that Byron Buxton will have one season where he plays 145 games and posts 7.5 WAR.
And our picks are ...
Doolittle: If Judge is once again a Yankee, add him to the list and maybe pencil him in at the top of it. Still, as long as Ohtani is healthy for a full season as both a hitter and a pitcher, it's hard to consider anyone else a front-runner. He's my pick, though a spirited race between super sophomores Rodriguez and Rutschman would be a lot of fun.
Schoenfield: Ohtani. Even if Judge re-signs with the Yankees, I'm going with Ohtani. Of course, there is one caveat here: What if the Angels are terrible and Ohtani is traded to the NL? Maybe he'll be MVP of both leagues. I'm kidding. I think.
NL MVP
The favorites: Ronald Acuna Jr.; Braves; Nolan Arenado, Cardinals; Mookie Betts, Dodgers; Freddie Freeman, Dodgers; Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals; Manny Machado, San Diego Padres; Juan Soto, Padres.
Sleepers to watch: Harris put up 5.3 WAR in 114 games as a rookie with Atlanta -- that's 7.2 over 155. If he can improve his chase rate, there is 30-30 potential with a higher, MVP-like on-base percentage. Pete Alonso drove in 131 runs for the Mets, and while "RBI guys" used to fare better in the MVP voting, you can't ignore that number. Teammate Francisco Lindor was fifth among NL position players in fWAR at 6.8, driving in 107 runs and scoring 98. It's hard for a catcher to get enough playing time to win MVP, but Dodgers backstop Will Smith is a solid defender who could hit 30 home runs and improve on his .260 average from 2022.
And our picks are ...
Doolittle: A Judge/Giants MVP narrative, assuming he hits 45 to 50 bombs in San Francisco, would be an amazing MVP case. Fernando Tatis Jr. should be back in the Padres' lineup early enough to make a run and certainly has a lot to prove. But he's going to be coming off surgery and a long layoff. I'll go with Soto. Not only does Soto have something to prove after his subpar (for him) 2022 season, but his eventual quest for a half-billion contract is looming just over the horizon. Also, he's really, really good.
Schoenfield: Betts. He quietly hit 35 home runs, scored 117 runs and won another Gold Glove. He also hit just .264 and .269 the past two seasons, so he might need to add 15 to 20 points of batting average or OBP to win an MVP award. He can do it.