PHILADELPHIA -- In the unruly bazaar that is playoff baseball, the one rule that you should keep in mind when trying to spot a trend is that by the time you notice one, it's about to change.
So it went Wednesday night, when the Astros reversed several of this World Series' most compelling trends -- big hits on first pitches, the Phillies' undefeated home streak, Bryce Harper's hot hand -- and, in a historic Game 4, ensured that the World Series will return to Houston this weekend.
But if the Astros are to seize the upper hand in Game 5, one of the most hard-to-explain trends of recent playoff history will need to do an about-face. Simply put, they need Hall of Famer Justin Verlander to show up Thursday, not World Series Justin Verlander -- an unrecognizable being who must hail from an alternate world.
Over the past 17 years, Verlander has thrived in every other conceivable high-stakes situation. He was the MVP of the 2017 ALCS. For his career, he's 15-5 with a 3.04 ERA in the playoffs -- as long as you remove the World Series outings. Because the biggest ding on his obviously Hall of Fame-worthy career is his performance in the Fall Classic. Here's a quick summary:
Pre-World Series JV: 259-138, 3.23 ERA
World Series JV: 0-6, 6.07 ERA
Sure, we're dropping some old-school stats there. Sometimes those are more than enough to tell a story. And, boy, do those numbers tell a story. More inscrutable than the story is the question of what those numbers mean. Is it a thing? How could it be?
Let's start by looking a little deeper into Verlander's World Series history. Here is his line the previous eight times he took the mound heading into Thursday night, starting with his Game 1 clunker in this series:
2022 Game 1: 5 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K (no-decision in 6-5 loss)
2019 Game 6: 5 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (7-2 loss)
2019 Game 2: 6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 6 K (12-3 loss)
2017 Game 6: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 9 K (3-1 loss)
2017 Game 2: 6 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K (no-decision in 7-6 win)
2012 Game 1: 4 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K (8-3 loss)
2006 Game 5: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K (4-2 loss)
2006 Game 1: 5 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 8 K (7-2 loss)
As you can see, they haven't all been bad and rarely have these outings been utter shellackings -- at least while Verlander was in the game. There are three quality starts in the mix with a couple of outings that could have easily been wins and changed the current narrative. In Game 6 of the 2017 World Series against the Dodgers, Verlander rolled into the sixth having struck out eight while allowing only one baserunner. Then four Dodgers reached base, Chris Taylor poked a key double, and Verlander gave up two runs in a game Houston lost 3-1.
Verlander's teams have scored three or fewer runs in six of those eight starts, leaving him little margin for error. Still, what's missing from this log is a vintage Verlander start in which he dominates into the late innings, putting up one zero after another. At 39, you might think it's a big ask to suggest Verlander would suddenly pull that kind of start out of his bag now, but he has done nothing all season but prove he's still capable of filing the role of the classic ace.
Verlander's season has been historic, for his or any age -- he's likely to win his third Cy Young Award at 39, two years removed from Tommy John surgery. And yet, outside a disastrous outing by Lance McCullers Jr., he has been Houston's worst starter of the World Series. In Game 5, he has a terribly hard act to follow after Cristian Javier and three relievers teamed for the second no-hitter in World Series history.
But his teammates say there's still no one they'd rather see on the mound.
"He's locked in, he's focused, he's ready to go, ready to compete, ready to attack," Alex Bregman said. "I tell you, every single person in that clubhouse has the most confidence in the world in him. He's a Hall of Famer for a reason. We look forward to having him on the mound."
The stakes could hardly be higher for Verlander and the Astros as Game 5 looms in a seesaw series. A win moves the Astros one win from a championship with two chances to close out the series at Minute Maid Park and, according to ESPN Stats & Information, the winner of Game 5 in a tied postseason series has gone on to win 70.3% of the time (45-19).
Adding to the importance of winning Game 5 is that the Astros won't have a greater edge in the pitching matchup the rest of the series than what they have Thursday. The Phillies will be sending Noah Syndergaard to the hill in what is likely to be at most a one-trip tour of the Houston lineup followed by a parade relievers. The opportunity for Houston to wrap its proverbial arms around this series looks as alluring as any you could conceive in this pairing.
Alas, that's on paper and the postseason does not always go according to script, as Verlander has found out so often during his Fall Classic career. After a regular season in which he went 18-4 and led the AL in ERA and ERA+, he has been uneven through the playoffs, bouncing between periods of dominance followed by troublesome innings when the damage seems to pile up quickly.
In his first outing in the ALDS series against Seattle, Verlander was touched up early but seemed to settle in with two strikeouts to begin what would prove to be his last inning in the fourth. Then he gave up a homer, triple, double and single to the next four batters -- a mid-inning cycle -- and was out of the game.
That seemed like a blip when Verlander went out and dominated the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALCS, holding New York to a Harrison Bader solo homer over six innings while striking out 11.
He followed it up with a promising beginning to Game 1 against the Phillies. He rolled through the Phillies for three innings, setting down the first 10 batters he faced. Even better, the Astros plated five early runs to put Verlander in position for his first Series win.
Then it all came apart. Five runs, six hits and two walks over two innings. There were some soft hits in the mix but there were also four base hits smoked at 98 mph or more. The smashes came off different pitches but they were all offerings in the zone. That, along with the walks, suggest that after Verlander had been so in command at the game's outset, he just wasn't able to get his pitches where he wanted them.
"Maybe just I wasn't executing pitches as well," Verlander struggled to explain afterward. "They got some traffic on the bases and managed to have some really good at-bats and put the ball in play. I feel like I needed to execute a little bit better."
That is precisely the kind of unexplainable lapse that a starter can't afford when inside the postseason crucible in contemporary baseball, where a starter doesn't often carry his team to a win on his shoulders alone, but can certainly put his team in an irreversible spiral with a bad inning.
Before Game 3, Verlander suggested that he spotted some mechanical issues and sought to iron them out.
Did it work? Even Verlander is waiting to find out the answer to that.
"I think a lot of times the execution follows mechanics," Verlander said. "So I did find some mechanical things that I needed to clean up. I've been working really hard since then. But there's really no way to know how it's going until you get in the game and see the hitters' reactions."
Thursday's game feels pivotal not just for the series and for the Astros, but for Verlander's postseason legacy as well. Perhaps because of his success in other rounds, Verlander has always avoided the "what's your deal in the playoffs?" questions that have long hounded future Hall of Fame contemporary Clayton Kershaw -- but the narrative of this matchup is very much teetering on the results of Game 5.
And as if there weren't already enough riding on the contest, there's another layer for Verlander, who can opt out of his contract after a probable Cy Young season and enter the free agent market: Thursday's game could be his Houston swan song.
"I've really enjoyed my time with this group of guys and the city and getting to know the city," he said ahead of his Game 5 start. "And it's really been a blessing and a wonderful time in my career.
"I'm trying not to think about it. I'm trying to be present. I mean, we talked a lot about how this year I've just tried to be more in the moment and be present and enjoy the ride."
World Series record be damned, Verlander is very much hyped to have the chance to grab the series lead, and his teammates similarly so to have him on the mound leading the charge.
"This is what Justin Verlander lives for," Chas McCormick said. "He's been in so many big spots. We have all the confidence in him."
"You can't be more excited," said Martin Maldonado, who is likely to team with Verlander in Houston's Game 5 battery. "You've got your horse."
The Astros will need him. This is down to a best-of-three series, and this game is the biggest of the season, with so much on the line.
It's also when we'll find out if the fact that so many seem to have discovered Verlander's head-scratching World Series trend means that it's about to end.