PHILADELPHIA -- In the unruly bazaar that is playoff baseball, the one rule that you should keep in mind when trying to spot a trend is that by the time you notice one, it's about to change.
So it went Wednesday night, when the Astros reversed several of this World Series' most compelling trends -- big hits on first pitches, the Phillies' undefeated home streak, Bryce Harper's hot hand -- and, in a historic Game 4, ensured that the World Series will return to Houston this weekend.
But if the Astros are to seize the upper hand in Game 5, one of the most hard-to-explain trends of recent playoff history will need to do an about-face. Simply put, they need Hall of Famer Justin Verlander to show up Thursday, not World Series Justin Verlander -- an unrecognizable being who must hail from an alternate world.
Over the past 17 years, Verlander has thrived in every other conceivable high-stakes situation. He was the MVP of the 2017 ALCS. For his career, he's 15-5 with a 3.04 ERA in the playoffs -- as long as you remove the World Series outings. Because the biggest ding on his obviously Hall of Fame-worthy career is his performance in the Fall Classic. Here's a quick summary:
Pre-World Series JV: 259-138, 3.23 ERA
World Series JV: 0-6, 6.07 ERA
Sure, we're dropping some old-school stats there. Sometimes those are more than enough to tell a story. And, boy, do those numbers tell a story. More inscrutable than the story is the question of what those numbers mean. Is it a thing? How could it be?