The Philadelphia Phillies not only ended the majors' second-longest playoff drought, reaching the postseason for the first time since 2011, but then went on a dramatic postseason ride that ended with a tough six-game loss to the Houston Astros in the World Series. None of that could be foreseen on June 2, when the club fired manager Joe Girardi with a 22-29 record and promoted bench coach Rob Thomson. With the core of the team intact for 2023, expectations will be high.
Of course, Dave Dombrowski and the front office have a lot of ground to make up on the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets, both of which finished 14 games ahead of the Phillies in the regular season. Some of those improvements were already made during the 2022 season: Trading for Brandon Marsh to give the team a good defensive center fielder, releasing shortstop Didi Gregorius and playing rookie Bryson Stott, and seeing Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez maturing into a strong bullpen duo.
One unknown as the team heads into the offseason: Will Bryce Harper have to undergo Tommy John surgery to fix the elbow injury that limited him to DH duties? If so, he could miss the first part of the 2023 season.
Here's what's next for the surprise National League champions.
Philadelphia Phillies
Notable free agents: 2B Jean Segura ($17 million team option), SP Zach Eflin ($15 million mutual option), SP Noah Syndergaard, SP Kyle Gibson, RP Corey Knebel, RP Brad Hand, RP David Robertson
Segura has been a nice complementary player during his four seasons with the Phillies, but he played just 98 games and had just 19 extra-base hits. At 33 years old next season, age is becoming a factor. The Phillies will probably buy out his final season for $1 million. Eflin missed two months with a knee injury, and when he returned in September, it was as a reliever. He'll probably elect to opt out anyway and seek a multi-year contract.
Trade candidates: Nobody stands out on the major league roster.
Extension candidates: SP Aaron Nola and 1B Rhys Hoskins
The Phillies will pick up Nola's $16 million team option, but then he becomes a free agent after 2023. Nola has been good; he's been durable, and he'll cost a lot of money to re-sign -- probably a tick above the low-$100 million contracts pitchers like Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray and Luis Castillo signed over the past year. Hoskins is also a season away from free agency, and while a key part of the lineup, he'll be 31 in 2024 and the type of player you need to be careful about overpaying.
1. Will they make a big splash in free agency ... like Trea Turner?
Look, the depth in talent between the Phillies and Braves remains significant. It might not be enough for Dombrowski and general manager Sam Fuld to merely improve around the edges. That worked in-season and got the Phillies to the World Series, but look for Dombrowski to make one of his signature big moves this offseason. That could include pursuing Trea Turner (or one of the other free-agent shortstops). Use the Segura/Eflin money for Turner to play shortstop and slide Stott over to second base to replace Segura. Stott was solid enough at shortstop, but he's not an impediment to going after Turner or Dansby Swanson, Carlos Correa or Xander Bogaerts.
The Phillies exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2022 with an estimated payroll around $242 million and enter the offseason with a payroll under $200 million for next season, so there is room to make a big move -- although re-signing Nola has to be factored in. But given the young foundation of talent in Atlanta, spending big may be the only way to go toe-to-toe with the Braves.
2. Will they be aggressive with prospects as potential rotation help or add some veterans?
With Gibson, Syndergaard and Eflin departing, the Phillies will need back-of-the-rotation help behind Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Bailey Falter. One possibility is simply trusting their young pitching -- Andrew Painter and Mick Abel reached Double-A at the end of 2022, while Griff McGarry made it to Triple-A. Painter doesn't turn 20 until April, but he's so polished and throws strikes (37 strikeouts and two walks in five starts at Double-A) that he could earn a quick promotion to the majors despite his youth. Abel is probably more on a 2024 timeline. McGarry has power stuff with some control issues which could land him in the bullpen.
No doubt the Phillies might still want to dip into free agency -- there is no shortage of solid veterans like Corey Kluber, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Jose Quintana, Martin Perez and Jameson Taillon. The secondary list would be guys like Michael Wacha, Ross Stripling, Rich Hill and Michael Pineda.
3. Is Alec Bohm the long-term answer at third base?
Bohm's season certainly had a lot of twists and turns, from that three-error game early in April when he was booed and caught on camera saying "I f---ing hate this place" to winning over Phillies fans. He hit .280, but he doesn't walk much, grounds into too many double plays, didn't hit a ton of home runs and his defense isn't good. That .280 average masks his overall production, which wasn't that good: 0.8 WAR. In lieu of any other options, he's probably still the third baseman next year. They can hope he grows into a little more power or his defense improves, but it is a position the Phillies could potentially upgrade.