Longtime Atlanta Braves fans know the unpredictable reality of October baseball. This Braves team was better than the 2021 team that won it all but simply didn't get hot at the right time, losing in disappointing fashion to the Philadelphia Phillies in the division series -- a team it finished 14 games ahead of in the regular season.
Still, it was a terrific season: rallying from 10½ games down on June 1 to catch the New York Mets in the final week for a fifth straight NL East title, the franchise's first 100-win season since 2003, and especially the emergence of rookie stars Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider and the breakout performance of 21-game winner Kyle Wright.
The Braves' foundation is stronger than ever. This team is going to be competing for a lot of World Series titles in upcoming seasons.
Atlanta Braves
Notable free agents: SS Dansby Swanson, RP Kenley Jansen, OF Adam Duvall, OF Robbie Grossman, SP Jake Odorizzi ($6.5 million player option)
Two big holes for the Braves to fill if Swanson and Jansen depart. Jansen led the National League with 41 saves, but the Braves acquired Raisel Iglesias at the trade deadline, and he's signed through 2025, so they almost certainly will hand the closer duties to Iglesias in 2023.
Trade candidates: Well, they would love to find a taker for Marcell Ozuna, but that's a nonstarter. Otherwise, they won't be looking to trade any of their core players -- there's no reason. The Braves do have plenty of starting pitching depth.
Extension candidates: They extended Austin Riley and Harris during the season and then Strider right before the division series started, so kudos to baseball operations president Alex Anthopoulos for getting those three deals completed. That ship might have sailed on Max Fried, who has two years left of team control, since there is no team discount to be obtained at this point. Wright, William Contreras and Vaughn Grissom would be the next candidates.
1. Who plays shortstop in 2023?
The door on re-signing Swanson certainly isn't closed, but he had his best season at the right time with 25 home runs, a possible Gold Glove Award, and easily a career-high 5.7 WAR as he played all 162 games. He'll be entering his age-29 season, and given his durability, defense and improved power, he's probably looking at a $100 million deal from some team (although free agency will be saturated with shortstops with Carlos Correa and potentially Xander Bogaerts exercising their opt-out clauses).
Does Swanson fit into the budget? Owners Liberty Media run a pretty tight ship, and the Braves had a payroll around $206 million in 2022 -- well below the $230 million tax threshold (which jumps to $232 million for 2023). With all the extensions they've signed, the Braves already have $160 million in guaranteed deals on the books for 2023 -- perhaps a sign that they'll let Swanson walk and give the shortstop job to Grissom. He played well the final two months filling in for the injured Ozzie Albies at second base but was a shortstop in the minors. His range to stay at the position remains a question among scouts, so the Braves could also go with prospect Braden Shewmake, more of a sure thing on defense, and deploy Grissom as a super-utility player if they want to stay in-house.
2. What about left field?
For now, it's Eddie Rosario, who makes $9 million in 2023. He struggled early in 2022, underwent eye surgery and missed more than two months, and then hit .243/.281/.379 upon returning in July. Overall, Braves left fielders did hit 28 home runs and finished 18th in OPS, so it wasn't a complete train wreck out there (although the defense was also bad with a combined minus-15 defensive runs saved). One interesting option if Grissom isn't deemed the shortstop of the present: Try him out in left field. Otherwise, it's probably Rosario and a veteran platoon partner to start against left-handed pitching.
3. What will the Braves do with their starting pitching depth?
If Odorizzi picks up his option, it does make for a crowded group of starters:
• Fried is the ace.
• Wright returns as the No. 2.
• Strider is perhaps the best No. 3 starter in the majors.
• Charlie Morton's ERA was a little high at 4.34, but he still fanned 205 batters and made 31 starts.
• Ian Anderson's ERA climbed from 3.58 to 5.00, so he'll have to reestablish himself.
• Odorizzi wasn't great after coming over from the Astros (5.24 ERA in 10 starts), but he has been a solid back-end starter in his career.
• Bryce Elder finished strong with a 1.65 ERA over five starts in August and September, although three of those came against the Marlins and two against the Nationals.
• 6-7 lefty Kyle Muller had a good showing at Triple-A with a 3.41 ERA and 159 strikeouts in 134 2/3 innings.
• Mike Soroka is still here. He last pitched in 2020 before missing two years due to three surgeries to repair a ruptured Achilles. He returned to make six minor league rehab starts before going down in late September with elbow inflammation.
That's nine candidates, plus prospects Freddy Tarnok and Jared Shuster, who both reached Triple-A in 2022. Indeed, Odorizzi might look at this list and decide to move on; he should be able to get something similar from a team where he's guaranteed a rotation slot.
You can never have too much starting pitching, but the Braves could conceivably deal from depth here to improve upon left field or add a shortstop if they're not completely sold on Grissom's defense or Shewmake's offense. No matter what, given all the holes the Mets have in free agency, the Braves will enter 2023 as the clear favorite for a sixth straight NL East title.