The trade: The Padres acquire OF Juan Soto and 1B Josh Bell from the Nationals for LHP MacKenzie Gore, OF Robert Hassell III, SS C.J. Abrams, OF James Wood, RHP Jarlin Susana and 1B/DH Luke Voit.
Now it is done. Now the story ends -- at least the rumor part of it. A new story begins. Juan Soto is heading to the Padres in one of the biggest blockbuster deals in trade deadline history. There have been future Hall of Famers traded at the deadline: Tom Seaver and Rickey Henderson and Randy Johnson. There have been mega-stars traded at their peak: Mark McGwire and Manny Ramirez and Justin Verlander and, just last year, Max Scherzer and Trea Turner.
But there has never been a young player of Soto's magnitude traded at the deadline: one of the best hitters in the game, 23 years old, with two years of team control remaining. Soto's career OPS+ is 159. The only hitters with a higher OPS+ through their age-23 seasons: Ted Williams, Ty Cobb, Mike Trout, Stan Musial and Albert Pujols.
It's the biggest swing of A.J. Preller's mercurial tenure as Padres general manager -- and he's had more big swings in his eight seasons running the Padres than any other GM. Still, the Padres are looking for their first playoff appearance in a full season under him (they reached the NLDS in 2020); that now looks like a lock, especially with the imminent return of Fernando Tatis Jr., who took live swings on Monday and should begin a minor league rehab assignment later this week.
Let's go to the grades ...
OK, let's get the obvious part of the way first. No, Soto has not been as good in 2022 as he was over the past two seasons. To compare:
2020-21: .322/.471/.572, 186 OPS+
2022: .246/.408/.485, 158 OPS+
That 2022 line still makes him one of the best hitters of the season -- ninth in the majors in OPS+, 10th in wRC+ -- but not quite the terrorizing force of the previous two seasons. Soto got off to a slow start and then might have started pressing a bit in June, when he hit just .195. He's been locked in of late, however. After his average dropped to .214 on June 22, he's hit .330/.512/.628 with seven home runs and 34 walks in 31 games. Yes, that's an on-base percentage over .500. And, yes, he can keep that up over an extended period. Over his last 78 games in 2021, he hit .352/.527/.644. In his final game with the Nationals on Monday against Scherzer and the Mets, he went 1-for-1 with three walks, blasting a 421-foot home run off Scherzer in the fourth inning.
With Soto now wearing Padres brown, gold and white, San Diego can roll out a lineup that looks like this:
LF Jurickson Profar
RF Juan Soto
DH Fernando Tatis Jr.
3B Manny Machado
1B Josh Bell
2B Jake Cronenworth
SS Ha-Seong Kim
CF Trent Grisham
C Austin Nola
Soto's defense is also ... worth mentioning. Statcast's outs above average ranks Soto at the very bottom, in the first percentile of all outfielders in range. Defensive runs saved is a little more generous, putting him at minus-3 DRS, merely below average. Soto's top sprint speed ranks in just the 26th percentile, so it's possible he's already losing speed. It's worth noting that Soto had positive defense metrics last year, so we'll see whether he just hasn't been focused on defense while playing for a lousy team or whether there is a real issue.
Of course, the Padres didn't acquire Soto for his defense. They got him for his bat -- and they need the offense if they're going to beat the Braves, Dodgers and Mets in the playoffs (and based on the playoff setup, they may need to beat all three). Their outfielders are hitting a combined .220/.300/.351, ranking 25th in the majors in OPS. If we include outfielders plus the DH spot, the Padres are 27th in OPS -- ahead of only the Tigers, Marlins and A's.
The trade certainly fits Preller's pattern: He trades high-ceiling, top-100 prospects for now talent, hedging on the probability that any of those prospects will turn into anything significant. For the most part, those deals haven't come back to bite him. Turner, who was traded to the Nationals in one of the first deals he made as GM back in December 2014, is the one big regret. (The Padres acquired Wil Myers in the three-team deal.) Along the way, Preller has acquired Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Jake Cronenworth, Mike Clevinger and Blake Snell in high-profile, multiplayer deals (plus Tatis as a minor leaguer in a different kind of deal, for veteran pitcher James Shields).
Oh ... and they also got Bell in Tuesday's deal. He's having almost as good a season as Soto at the plate, hitting .301/.384/.493, good for a 152 OPS+.
The Padres have improved their chances in 2022 -- and in 2023 and 2024. Preller, if he still has a job, will worry about 2025 in the future. He also kept Soto away from the Dodgers. It's a big price to pay in prospects, but how can you not love a lineup with Soto, Tatis and Machado?
Grade: A+
It's no fun to trade a franchise player, a likely future Hall of Famer. But once Soto turned down a reported $440 million contract extension, Mike Rizzo had no choice. The major league franchise is the worst in the league, the farm system was regarded as one of the thinnest in the sport. With or without Soto, the next few seasons were going to be painful. Oh, plus the franchise is up for sale.
After getting what many viewed as a light return a year ago for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner, it's hard to fault this trade - one of the most impressive hauls of top-rated prospects ever acquired. The caveat: They're prospects. You never know what will happen.
Abrams and Gore are the familiar names here, two players who have topped prospect lists for several years and both with big league experience this season, although Gore is currently sidelined with an elbow injury after going 4-4 with a 4.50 ERA and 72 strikeouts in 70 innings across 16 appearances for the Padres. Once viewed as the top pitching prospect in the game, Gore lost his delivery and command the past couple of seasons, but seemed to re-find it this year -- to a certain extent. He still averaged 4.8 walks per nine in the majors and while all four of his pitches have graded plus at times, his swing-and-miss rate ranks in just the 37th percentile -- below average. Some of his other Statcast metrics are also shaky: Eighth percentile in hard-hit rate and sixth percentile in average exit velocity. So he got hit pretty hard and was too wild. The ceiling remains high, but he has a long ways to go before he's a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Abrams was the sixth overall pick in 2019 and has been a consensus top-10 prospect ever since he hit .401 in rookie ball that year. He didn't play in the COVID season and then was limited to 42 games in Double-A in 2021 due to a fractured tibia. He's been up-and-down this season, but his entire professional career consists of just 152 games and 638 plate appearances. It's certainly a testament to his raw talent that he reached the majors with so little experience (injuries on the big league roster forced the Padres' hands a bit) and not surprising that he looked a little overmatched with the Padres (.232/.285/.320, four walks, 27 strikeouts).
Really, he could be anything at this point: A Jimmy Rollins/Francisco Lindor power/speed combo with plus defense is the ultimate scenario. If you saw any of his highlights with the Padres, you saw his top-of-the-charts Grade 80 speed. His contact skills should eventually be one of his strengths at the plate; the biggest question is how much power he'll develop. Bottom line: The Nationals get an exciting player who they should be able to plug into the lineup in 2023 - one with clear star potential.
Hassell, the Padres' first-round pick out of a Tennessee high school in 2020, has done nothing but hit in his two seasons as a pro. He began 2022 as Kiley McDaniel's No. 31 prospect, but he's hit .299/.379/.467 in High-A ball with 10 home runs, and has moved up to ninth in Kiley's updated in-season rankings. He's also stolen 54 bases across his two minor league seasons, has 70 makeup and so far has shown the ability to remain in center field. He comes with a high floor as a solid contributor and if the power develops could turn into a future All-Star.
Wood is maybe the most intriguing of the entire group. Described by some as a left-handed Aaron Judge, he's listed at 6-foot-7, 240 pounds, and the Padres stole him in the second round of last year's draft. He's hitting .337/.453/.601 with 10 home runs at Class A Lake Elsinore and maybe his most impressive stat: Nearly as many walks (37) as strikeouts (42). Yes, the California League is a hitter's league and it's only Low-A ball and, no, he probably won't turn into Aaron Judge. But let's note that when Judge was 19 he was a freshman at Fresno State -- and hit two home runs.
Jarlin Susana is another large human being -- 6-foot-6, 235 pounds -- just 18 years old. He's in the complex league, but impressed scouts with his size, velocity and semblance of command: 44 strikeouts and 11 walks in 29.1 innings. He's a long ways from the big leagues, but he's sleeper, high-ceiling prospect.
Whew. Now that is a trade. Bottom line: If you're going to trade Soto, Rizzo nailed this one, with, really, five potential high-ceiling prospects. Look, history says they won't all get there. But if the Nationals can hit on three of the five -- three All-Star players -- that's a viable return for two-plus seasons of Soto (and Bell). The big risk is three of the prospects haven't played above Class A and Gore's sore elbow has to raise a red flag, even if the Nationals are comfortable with the medical reports.