We started the week before the MLB trade deadline by examining which hitters are most likely to move before 6 p.m. strikes on Aug. 2. Now, it's time to look at the pitchers most likely to be available.
Here are the players and teams you need to know and the latest news on who could be going where, starting with an ace who just so happens to also be one of the best hitters in the entire sport.
Shohei Ohtani
Sure, Ohtani could have gone in both files, but with the year he's having on the mound, he fit even better here. For the record: Nobody expects the best player in baseball to move in the next week. The thing is, just about every factor lines up to have an Ohtani deal make more sense than one for Juan Soto.
The Angels are woebegone. Ohtani will hit free agency after the 2023 season, and the desire to return to an organization that hasn't finished a season with a record above .500 since 2015 is reasonably suspect -- particularly when you remember that the team also has arguably the worst farm system in baseball and an owner who hasn't come within sniffing distance of the luxury-tax threshold despite having Mike Trout for the past 11 full seasons. And that owner, Arte Moreno, is the name executives queried about Ohtani's availability -- whether now or this winter -- bring up again and again.
There are multiple elements to Moreno's stewardship of the Angels that make a trade of Ohtani before Aug. 2 a near impossibility. Moreno's lack of trust in his front office to make bold decisions is, by now, a truth with which Angels executives must live. Perry Minasian is in his second year as the team's general manager, and while his decision-making has been convicted -- from drafting all pitchers last year to aggressively seeking pitching help this winter -- the Angels' 41-56 record buys him no favors. Further, a chunk of the Angels' business interests are tied up in Ohtani's worldwide appeal. Punting on that popularity with a trade now would mean a recalibration of the team's marketing and income. Doing so in the winter could be a perilous financial decision.
Beyond that are the finances of Ohtani's remaining contract. At $5.5 million this season, Ohtani is the best arbitration-or-later value in baseball, and even with a massive arbitration raise, he'll still be grossly underpaid. How underpaid? Well ...
Pitcher A is Ohtani. Pitcher B is Max Scherzer, who is making $43.3 million per year.
Hitter A is Ohtani. Hitter B is Matt Olson, who is making $21 million per year.
As rudimentary as this is, it's undeniable that Ohtani is an analog for players paid $64 million-plus annually. He's not going to get that as a free agent, but it gives Moreno a good sense for the three options with Ohtani.
1) Sign him and add the highest per-year salary in baseball history to a payroll that already has Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon on the books at $75.7 million per year through 2026
2) Keep him, lose him in free agency and get a single draft pick between the second and third rounds in 2024
3) Trade him
Door 2 is clearly the worst of the bunch. And yet if Door 1 is too pricey and Door 3 unpalatable, it is, at least as of now, the favorite.
Luis Castillo and Frankie Montas
Castillo and Montas are the two best clearly available starters, both 29-year-old right-handers from Cincinnati and Oakland, respectively. Among all starters in baseball, only Triston McKenzie, Dylan Cease and Justin Verlander have better ERAs than Castillo's 1.00 mark over the past four weeks. And in his return Thursday from a shoulder injury, Montas threw three shutout innings and punched out five Tigers then Tuesday night he held his own against a lethal Houston team, allowing a pair of earned runs in five innings.
They will both almost certainly move in the next week, and there is no shortage of interest. Among the teams hottest after them, according to sources: The St. Louis Cardinals, Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees. The Minnesota Twins, Toronto Blue Jays and San Diego Padres also have been on the hunt for pitching.
Juggling interest in both Soto and starting pitching is no easy task for Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, and pulling off the double would take some sort of wizardry. With Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz and Dakota Hudson all on the injured list, St. Louis' need for a starter is acute -- and might be the priority over even a Soto acquisition.
Seattle's aggressiveness tracks -- it's GM Jerry Dipoto's default speed, and the team, looking for its first playoff berth in two decades, is obviously motivated. Rookie George Kirby has already thrown a single-season career-high in innings -- not just in pro ball but dating back to his college days -- so either player would help eat innings. And with Mitch Haniger and Kyle Lewis due back from the injured list soon, their offensive upgrades could be external and internal both.
The Yankees, with the best record in baseball, are simply looking to fortify a rotation that's already strong -- and hedge against Jameson Taillon's looming free agency, with Castillo and Montas under team control for 2023 as well.
Scouts packed the stands at Montas' start against Houston on Tuesday and will today for Castillo's against Miami, and though one outing does not make or break a player's trade value, good performances could compel teams to give even more thought to paying the heavy price Toronto did last year for Jose Berrios and the Mets in 2019 for Marcus Stroman.
Controllable starting pitching
The asks in return for Castillo and Montas are understandably high, leaving some teams looking a tier down and finding compelling options.
Cincinnati right-hander Tyler Mahle is the most obvious one, especially after a successful return from the injured list Sunday with six solid innings. Teams believe he'll be dealt, but they're unclear on whether Cincinnati will insist that the acquiring team takes on third baseman Mike Moustakas (and at least some of the $25 million remaining on his contract), too. One executive said Cincinnati is focusing on hoarding prospects and would rather eat Moustakas' deal than get lesser value for Castillo and Mahle. Another believes the frenzy for starting pitching at the deadline will give the Reds a better opportunity than ever to dump Moustakas' contract -- and that they'll pursue it, knowing they could hold on to Castillo and Mahle and move them this winter.
Cleveland, as it has done every year for seemingly a decade now, is willing to trade its controllable starting pitching -- namely right-handers Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale. Even Shane Bieber could be had, but that's more about Cleveland's long-standing willingness to talk about anyone -- for the right price. For Bieber, that price is exorbitant.
One surprising entrant in the category: Houston, which, multiple general managers said, has expressed a willingness to trade from what clearly has been a strength. The Astros currently have six quality major league starting pitchers -- Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, Jake Odorizzi and Jose Urquidy. Lance McCullers Jr. is on a rehabilitation assignment and looked excellent in his first start back. And Hunter Brown, a right-hander dominating at Triple-A, is, in the words of one scout, "a real dude."
The Astros, then, have plenty of options, so Urquidy is the most obvious candidate to move. He is 27 years old, is playoff tested and boasts a career 3.69 ERA over 52 games. He'll reach arbitration this winter and would slot in with any big league rotation. Javier, in the midst of a breakout season, and Garcia, who isn't due to hit free agency until after the 2026 season, would cost the most out of anyone in this category in return.
Another name being kicked around, though the price would be exorbitant: Detroit left-hander Tarik Skubal, who is 25 and has four years of control remaining. The issue with moving Skubal: So many Tigers pitchers are injured -- Casey Mize had Tommy John surgery and Matt Manning remains out with a shoulder injury -- that any prospect of near-term contention depends upon them having at least a few decent starters. That said: Multiple general managers Wednesday said they expect Skubal to move.
One more pitcher worth mentioning, particularly because he may be the best of this group, is Miami's Pablo Lopez. For upward of two years, the Marlins have flirted with dealing Lopez, the 26-year-old right-hander whose seven innings or two-hit, no-walk, 11-strikeout ball Tuesday night left quite an impression. The Marlins do have Sandy Alcántara, but the remainder of their rotation is by no means dominant, and as great as right-handed prospects Eury Perez and Max Meyer may be, Miami would need a huge haul to warrant giving up 2½ years of Lopez.
Rental starters
Beyond the Red Sox' Nathan Eovaldi -- who has a chance at being made available, depending on how the Red Sox play this week -- the pickings for impending free agent starters are slim. There's Martin Perez, whose breakout in his 11th major league season looks very real and who would fetch Texas a big return if it wanted to move him. The issue: The Rangers aren't particularly inclined, not when they're chasing a respectable finish in the first year after they guaranteed Corey Seager and Marcus Semien a combined $500 million.
The fallback option for seemingly every team is Jose Quintana, the veteran left-hander in the midst of a rebound season with the Pirates after a forgettable 2021. While the aforementioned teams are focused at the top of the market, every club in baseball needs pitching depth, and Pittsburgh is in a dandy position to spin its $2 million investment in Quintana into a prospect. Already the Pirates are getting rave reviews from evaluators after last week's trade of Daniel Vogelbach, which netted them right-handed reliever Colin Holderman from the Mets.
The most interesting option on the rental market: Angels right-hander Noah Syndergaard, whose fluctuating stuff has left front offices wary and whose contract is onerous enough that Los Angeles might simply choose to hold on to him. Syndergaard, 29, is a different pitcher now than the Mets fireballer of half a decade ago. His fastball sits at 94 mph. His slider, once a felonious 92 mph, is now nearly 10 mph slower. His strikeouts are down. The Angels use him as a five-and-dive guy.
There have been points this season when Syndergaard has thrown 94-97 mph. Lately, he has been more around 91-95. Velocity isn't everything, and Syndergaard's ability to throw strikes is never in question. But with more than $7 million remaining on his $21 million deal, contending teams are asking themselves: Just how worth our while is it to take him on, especially with the added cost of a prospect, even a lesser one?
Relievers
This is grim. David Robertson is the best out there, and from 2019 to '21, he threw just 18 innings. He has been outstanding for the Cubs this season -- 39⅓ innings, 19 walks, 50 strikeouts, a 1.83 ERA -- and knows a thing or two about pitching in big postseason games. Almost everyone could use him, though he'd be a particularly good fit with the Yankees, who are without Michael King and Chad Green -- two of their best three relievers -- for the remainder of the season. That a 37-year-old who signed for $3.5 million this winter is the top relief option available says everything one needs to know about the market.
Now, it's possible that a team with young, controllable, top-end relief pitching sees this talent vacuum and decides to make a player available in hopes of reaping a great return. Gregory Soto in Detroit qualifies, particularly because he's headed into arbitration this winter and will get a hefty raise on account of his saves. But Michael Fulmer and Andrew Chafin are the likelier Tigers relievers to move at this juncture.
Others worth keeping an eye on: Miami's Anthony Bass (who's right up there with Robertson among the best-performing relievers who could be on the move), Texas' Matt Moore (the best lefty out there, though he's not a sure thing to go), Washington's Carl Edwards Jr. (could be packaged with Josh Bell), Kansas City's Josh Staumont (could move with Andrew Benintendi or Whit Merrifield) and a whole suite of relievers from Baltimore, which, in case you haven't noticed, has the top bullpen in all of MLB in 2022.