Here's my big review of everything that happened in this week's 2022 MLB draft.
There are a few things to know as you read about this year's prospects, how they fit with their new teams and also a little behind the scenes on bigger-picture strategy and stuff I was hearing around the draft:
There was a single-digit number of players I wanted to move after publishing my final list a week or so before the draft. I'll call out those names in the pick analysis. There are also about 60 players who were hovering around the end of the top 300 to be added when/if players pulled their names out of the draft, so I've included them as honorable mentions (HM) and I tossed in a few extras who weren't in that group if I found them of interest for some other reason.
You can think of the players ranked Nos. 251-300 and HM as those just off the MLB team prospect lists, with a chance to move on based on the summer/fall information to come. It would take a considerable amount of new information (happens a few times per draft) for a player not listed here to make a team list this winter.
Included in that summer/fall information is something that happens maybe a dozen times every year. Teams will excitedly tell me about a player they knew more about than the others (and obviously, me) and it becomes clear I was light on him (usually paired with a stronger-than-expected pro debut). There's also the Cleveland/Minnesota-style of college pitcher who immediately starts throwing harder in pro ball (change of mechanics, rest, usage, etc.) or the college hitter who quickly makes a mechanical/mental adjustment after signing.
Over 95% of top-10-round picks will sign, and when they don't, it's usually due to a medical that surprises both parties, so they're obviously hard to see coming at this point. Beyond the 10th round, most college players will sign, but any high schooler or top-200 prospect is at least a question as to whether he will sign. In most cases, I could probably guess which are low-to-mid-six-figure bonuses with deals done ahead of time and which are backup plans that almost certainly won't be signed, but I'm not always sure on draft day.
On the notation, "(1/2) 1. Druw Jones" below means Round 1, overall pick 2, overall ranking 1. The FV grade (and corresponding Top 100 ranking) allows you to slot players into the team lists (AL and NL preseason lists, updated farm rankings).
Rankings 3.0: Top 300 2022 MLB draft prospects
Jump to a team:
American League
BAL | BOS | CHW | CLE | DET
HOU | KC | LAA | MIN | NYY
OAK | SEA | TB | TEX | TOR
National League
ARI | ATL | CHC | CIN | COL
LAD | MIA | MIL | NYM | PHI
PIT | SD | SF | STL | WSH
National League
(1/2) 1. Druw Jones, CF, Wesleyan HS (GA) (55 FV, 24th on the Top 100)
(1/34) 50. Landon Sims, RHP, Mississippi State (40+ FV)
(19/558) 62. Gavin Turley, CF, Hamilton HS (AZ) (40+ FV)
(2/43) 79. Ivan Melendez, 1B, Texas (40 FV)
(3/82) 97. Nate Savino, LHP, Virginia (40 FV)
(4/108) 148. Dylan Ray, RHP, Alabama (40 FV)
(20/588) 149. Riley Kelly, RHP, Tustin HS (CA) (40 FV)
(7/198) 171. Demetrio Cristantes, SS, Nogales HS (AZ) (35+ FV)
(12/348) 230. Malachi Witherspoon, RHP, Fletcher HS (FL) (35+ FV)
(18/528) 268. Aiva Arquette, SS, St. Louis HS (HI) (35+ FV)
(8/228) 278. Adrian Rodriguez, SS, Int'l BB Academy (PR) (35+ FV)
(5/138) HM. Andrew Pintar, SS, BYU
(6/168) HM. Will Mabrey, LHP, Tennessee
(11/318) HM. Spencer Giesting, LHP, Charlotte
(13/378) HM. Eli Saul, RHP, Sacramento State
The most likely of the non-chalk draft outcomes was someone going to Baltimore on a deal at No. 1 overall and Druw Jones to Arizona at No. 2 for what will probably be the biggest bonus in the draft. So, while I thought the draft was going chalk and I was wrong, the next-most-likely general outcome is what actually happened. After the Jordan Lawlar success from last year's draft (also a well-over slot for the top player on my board) and the talent wave getting to the big leagues (Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll being joined by Druw Jones in the outfield *eyes emoji*) there is now a young core that should allow a smaller-payroll team to compete in a loaded NL West.
I think the D-backs were thinking about that wave of young talent when they grabbed three quick movers with high picks in Sims, Melendez and Ray. Sims could be a top-30 big league reliever in two years, Melendez is a very likely big leaguer with at least 70-grade raw power. Ray is a likely reliever with a mid-90s heater and an above-average-to-plus curveball. Savino looked like a mid-first-rounder on the showcase circuit four years ago before early-enrolling at Virginia (was never subject to the draft out of high school) and becoming the next in a long line of touted Cavaliers pitchers who have disappointed with inconsistency on campus, but his raw ability still seems to be in there.
Crisantes (spring popup guy), Rodriguez and Pintar (missed much of the year due to injury) are all up-the-middle tools bets while Mabrey is a lefty reliever from the best pen in college baseball with mid-90s heat. On Day 3 the Diamondbacks added some talented players who might be risks to not sign: Turley (best bat speed in the draft, contact concerns), Kelly (88-92 with easy plus curveball), Witherspoon (faded late but showed two above-average pitches early this spring), Arquette (physical tools with some feel to hit), Giesting (high-slot lefty reliever who flashed a plus slider) and Saul (late-blooming projectable sinker/slider type).
(1/20) 27. Owen Murphy, RHP, Riverside Brookfield HS (IL) (45 FV)
(1/35) 49. J.R. Ritchie, RHP, Bainbridge HS (WA) (40+ FV)
(2/57) 66. Cole Phillips, RHP, Boerne HS (TX) (40+ FV)
(3/96) 122. Drake Baldwin, C, Missouri State (40 FV)
(6/185) 155. Seth Keller, RHP, Hanover HS (VA) (40 FV)
(7/215) 183. Adam Maier, RHP, Oregon (35+ FV)
(4/125) 227. David McCabe, 3B, Charlotte (35+ FV)
(2/76) 245. Blake Burkhalter, RHP, Auburn (35+ FV)
(5/155) HM. Ignacio Alvarez, 3B, Riverside JC (CA)
(11/335) HM. Ian Mejia, RHP, New Mexico State
I planted a flag firmly in the "biggest Owen Murphy fan in draft media" camp, but the Braves might have found a way to be even more bullish than I was. Teams thought he'd go in the 30s or 40s for an over-slot bonus, but he might have been the player in the draft with the most plus abilities relative to his draft position. These are all important components to a player winning coin flips in the draft room: at least plus makeup, at least plus physical ability, football standout, pro prospect as an infielder, physical tools that show up in his delivery/command, Trackman-friendly if not class-leading characteristics/shape to both his fastball and breaking ball, cold-weather prospect with limited baseball reps compared to Southern ones. This adds up to a Jack Flaherty-like upside and a similar draft day status. I'm terrified of taking prep righties for $2 million-plus because the track record is largely *yikes*, but I'd be excited to give Murphy the (I'm guessing here) $2.5-3.0 million I think the Braves will be giving him.
The upside prep righties parade didn't end here, with Ritchie, Phillips and Keller. Ritchie is a silky-smooth projection type who's already tickling some 97s and showing above-average stuff, but not necessarily late into games. Phillips is a gifted pure power arm up to 99 mph early this spring who mixed in a plus curveball but had Tommy John by mid-spring. He's a stuff-over-command type with some relief risk, but scouts also rave about his makeup. Keller was a personal favorite as a two-way player with three above-average pitches and exactly the kind of attitude you want from a shorter prep righty who probably isn't a traditional starter. These were some bold swings and I love it.
The rest of the class is solid but won't animate me quite as much. I'll guess Burkhalter is a money saver to pay those prep arms, but he could move quickly with a heater up to 98 mph and a nasty power 88-90 mph cutter. McCabe has easy plus raw power but might be a right/right first baseman. Maier was a late bloomer with a data-friendly plus mid-90s heater and plus breaker on the Cape but was shelved with an elbow issue much of the year. Baldwin is a decent defender who had a breakout offensive year. Alvarez is a bat-first third baseman with an excellent approach. I'm almost certain I filed a follow report on Mejia as a projectable popup high schooler in the fall of 2017 before I left the Braves to reenter media, so I'll be taking full credit if he ends up being a big leaguer.
(1/7) 22. Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma (45 FV)
(2/47) 41. Jackson Ferris, LHP, IMG Academy HS (FL) (45 FV)
(3/86) 115. Christopher Paciolla, SS, Temecula Valley HS (CA) (40 FV)
(4/113) 130. Nazier Mule, RHP, Passaic County Tech HS (NJ) (40 FV)
(5/143) 180. Brandon Birdsell, RHP, Texas Tech (35+ FV)
(6/173) 264. Will Frisch, RHP, Oregon State (35+ FV)
(19/563) 296. Brock Blatter, RHP, Billings Central Catholic HS (MT)
(11/323) HM. Branden Noriega, LHP, No School
(13/383) HM. Luis Rujano, RHP, Sunshine State Elite HS (FL)
(14/413) HM. Shane Marshall, RHP, Georgia
I thought Horton would go just after the Cubs took him, but his last month of the season when he went from second/third round to the top 10 picks is an outlier that will be referenced for the next decade. Among the college pitchers, he and Prielipp come with the least track record of being this kind of guy so their pro debuts have the potential to move them the most. If what Horton is doing keeps working, I think he'll look like peak Chris Archer: second/third starter whose best pitch is a 65-or-70-grade slider (that he learned a couple of months ago!) and a good-enough mid-90s heater.
Ferris was right there with Dylan Lesko and Brandon Barriera for a year-plus at the top of a historically strong prep pitching class, but the latter two separated a bit this spring. Ferris' stuff was more 50-to-55 grade this spring rather than the multiple plus pitches the others were showing, but I think a delivery tweak will give Ferris starter command and three above-average pitches. Paciolla is a hit-first prep infielder, Mule is a rocket-armed righty (up to 100 mph) who will show a plus breaker at times but has some relief risk, Birdsell is an older college power arm with some medical history but is coming off a strong campaign converting to a starting role, while Frisch has a mid-90s heater but missed the season with Tommy John surgery.
On Day 3, the Cubs added Noriega (Draft League standout up to 97 mph with an above breaker), Rujano (sitting mid-90s late in the year with a three-pitch mix), Marshall (longtime catcher recently converted to pitching, works mid-90s) and Blatter (big, but limited reps also into the mid-90s in the Draft League).
(1/18) 5. Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola JC (FL) (50 FV, 94th on Top 100)
(1/32) 81. Sal Stewart, 3B, Westminster Christian HS (FL) (40 FV)
(2/55) 86. Logan Tanner, C, Mississippi State (40 FV)
(3/94) 95. Bryce Hubbart, LHP, Florida State (40 FV)
(18/543) 114. Mason Neville, CF, Basic HS (NV)
(6/183) 128. Zach Maxwell, RHP, Georgia Tech (40 FV)
(5/153) 164. Cade Hunter, C, Virginia Tech (35+ FV)
(7/213) 167. Trey Faltine, SS, Texas (35+ FV)
(2/73) 187. Justin Boyd, RF, Oregon State (35+ FV)
(4/123) 244. Kenya Huggins Jr., RHP, Chipola JC (FL) (35+ FV)
(8/243) 271. Chris McElvain, RHP, Vanderbilt (35+ FV)
(11/333) HM. Ben Brutti, RHP, South Kingstown HS (RI)
I'll have to call around to figure out why Cam Collier fell. I thought his landing spots were picks Nos. 4, 7 or 8 at the latest. I knew some teams felt he didn't show enough quickness to be in the top half of the first round, but I think he'll get a solidly above-slot bonus as even teams low on him thought he was better than that. He's a gifted young hitter who shouldn't have a problem sticking at the hot corner. Collier also has an almost unprecedented sort of leverage in that he could go to Louisville for two years and be draft eligible as a 19-year-old. If he can perform well, he might explode age-obsessed draft models that would be comparing two years of ACC (and Cape/Team USA) performance to an older high school player of the same age with a handful of showcase outings.
Stewart was a bit of a head-scratcher as scouts were split on his projection and thought his financial terms would send him to Vanderbilt. Tanner (plus defender, plus arm, decent bat) and Hunter (bat first, breakout season, son of the Mariners scouting director Scott) continue the trend of the Reds taking backstops. Hubbart (lean-framed pitchability lefty) and Maxwell (enormous, relief-risk righty akin to Jonathan Broxton) are almost opposite in every conceivable way.
Faltine is a plus defender with plus raw power but big swing-and-miss concerns due to pitch selection. Boyd is a hit-first likely corner outfielder who was a sleeper for many. Huggins was Collier's teammate and works in the mid-90s with a clean arm, but the rest is still a work in progress. McElvain was a solid back-end-to-spot starter pitching on weekends for Vanderbilt. On Day 3, the Reds added Neville (a tough sign committed to Arkansas as a plus runner with above-average contact ability from the left side) and Brutti (high-effort low-slot righty up to 97 mph who throws nothing straight).
(1/38) 25. Jordan Beck, RF, Tennessee (45 FV)
(1/10) 30. Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga (45 FV)
(1/31) 36. Sterlin Thompson, RF, Florida (45 FV)
(2/50) 80. Jackson Cox, RHP, Toutle Lake HS (WA) (40 FV)
(5/146) 96. Connor Staine, RHP, UCF (40 FV)
(3/88) 118. Carson Palmquist, LHP, Miami (40 FV)
(4/116) 168. Ryan Ritter, SS, Kentucky (35+ FV)
(6/176) 204. Michael Prosecky, LHP, Louisville (35+ FV)
(9/266) 229. Brad Cumbest, RF, Mississippi State (35+ FV)
(8/236) 242. Davis Palermo, RHP, North Carolina (35+ FV)
(10/296) 251. Zach Agnos, RHP, East Carolina (35+ FV)
(7/206) 267. Kody Huff, C, Stanford (35+ FV)
I was surprised to see Hughes as the pick here, with him and Thompson/Beck pretty even on talent for me and many teams, so I'd imagine the bonuses will end up being much closer than the suggested slots for each pick. Hughes is a big righty with three above-average pitches and solid performance, though he was hit around in his last few starts. Thompson would've likely been paid in 2020 had the pandemic allowed his season to go a month or two longer, but he raked for two years in the SEC. He has some chance to play a passable second base, but I wonder a bit about his pitch selection, especially identifying spin. Beck has some Jayson Werth/Hunter Renfroe to his game with potential 30-homer power and above-average defense in a corner spot along with a pretty swing, but serious issues with pitch selection and contact.
Cox will flash a 3000+ RPM breaker and gets into the mid-90s at times, but the consistency and delivery (high elbow in back) muted some interest. Staine will get into the mid-90s with a solid-average slider and starter traits. Palmquist is a poor man's Cooper Hjerpe: effective with three pitches from a near-sidearm slot. Ritter's pitch selection worries me a bit, but he has contact skills, is an above-average runner and can play shortstop. Proecky has been into the mid-90s with an above-average breaker in multi-innings stints. Cumbest is a big, mobile outfielder with a football background, Palermo is an older likely middle reliever with solid metrics, Agnos is a two-way guy who fits more as back-end type, and Huff is a solid catcher who could also fill a utility role with a little offensive upside.
(2/40) 46. Dalton Rushing, C, Louisville (45 FV)
(3/105) 162. Alex Freeland, 3B, UCF (35+ FV)
(6/195) 186. Logan Wagner, 3B, P27 Academy HS (SC) (35+ FV)
(13/405) 257. Chris Newell, RF, Virginia (35+ FV)
(5/165) 261. Sean McLain, 2B, Arizona State (35+ FV)
(12/375) 276. Jacob Meador, RHP, Dallas Baptist (35+ FV)
(11/345) 299. Kyle Nevin, RF, Baylor (35+ FV)
(4/135) HM. Nick Biddison, 2B, Virginia Tech
(9/285) HM. Brandon Neeck, LHP, Virginia
(15/465) HM. Nico Perez, SS, BYou Academy HS (PR)
(16/495) HM. Jared Karros, RHP, UCLA
Rushing was a late riser as his catching improved with teams reading the tea leaves on a robo-ump future and his offensive showing became more obvious. He's a compact-framed power-over-hit type. You can't ignore some of the Will Smith parallels given the Louisville connection, but they aren't that similar. Freeland was better than expected on the Cape and was getting late second-round buzz, so I would've moved him into 40 FV territory in the low 100s on my rankings. Wagner has plus bat speed and fits in the infield, but his hitting ability and pitch selection were just OK in my looks this spring.
Newell was a name in high school but didn't quite hit his upside at Virginia; he has big bat speed and power potential but problematic swing decisions. McLain (brother of Matt, the first of a few legacy types) profiles as a utility type. Meador is a classic fastball-breaking ball power arm from Dallas Baptist with data-friendly qualities. Nevin (son of Phil) didn't have a loud spring but got attention late for a strong MLB draft combine showing and some pre-draft workouts.
Biddison stood out on a strong Virginia Tech club but is almost 23 years old and profiles as a high-effort (often injured) utility guy. Neeck made some progress this year but never hit his potential in Charlottesville; he's a fastball-slider reliever now. Perez is a sub-6-foot middle infielder with real feel to hit but has given scouts uneven looks, partly due to a bad approach. Karros (son of Eric) is a 6-foot-7 righty with early-round potential who didn't pitch this year and missed much of last year with back issues.
(1/6) 9. Jacob Berry, RF, LSU (45+ FV)
(2/46) 29. Jacob Miller, RHP, Liberty Union HS (OH) (45 FV)
(3/85) 99. Karson Milbrandt, RHP, Liberty HS (MO) (40 FV)
(6/172) 202. Jared Poland, RHP, Louisville (35+ FV)
(11/322) 214. Alex Williams, RHP, Stanford (35+ FV)
(4/112) 222. Marcus Johnson, RHP, Duke (35+ FV)
(5/142) 250. Josh White, RHP, Cal (35+ FV)
(12/352) HM. Cole Kirschsieper, LHP, Illinois
(17/502) HM. Evan Chrest, RHP, Wharton HS (FL)
Berry was one of the least exciting prospects in the top 10 picks because he's a corner-only prospect with limited defensive value and lacks a 70-grade tool. That said, he's the best current hit/approach/power combo in the whole draft (a 55 or 60 grade on each one, something like .270 with 20-25 homers and some walks), so he has a very high floor of being a solid contributor in the next couple years. Miller was connected to a number of teams starting in the 20s, so Miami was fortunate to grab him in the 40s. On his best day, he would show four-plus pitches and starter command, but his fastball has just OK bat-missing characteristics, so he'll be reliant on his arm speed to continue being that pitcher.
Milbrant is a classic raw projection arm with above-average qualities including mid-90s heat at times. Chrest is a slight 5-foot-11 prep righty with reliever risk, but he has a hellacious breaking ball. The other players above are pretty ordinary college arms: Poland (has started and relieved; above-average fastball/changeup at times), Williams (22-year-old pitchability righty with a plus changeup), Johnson (consistency issues as a starter so might fit best as 92-95, touching 97 mph with plus slider in relief), White (low-90s sinker/slider who might fit best in relief) and Kirschsieper (5-foot-11 pitchability lefty with a plus changeup).
(1/27) 28. Eric Brown, SS, Coastal Carolina (45 FV)
(17/522) 44. Brady Neal, C, IMG Academy HS (FL) (45 FV)
(2/63) 59. Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, Crowder JC (MO) (40+ FV)
(2/72) 85. Robert Moore, 2B, Arkansas (40 FV)
(19/582) 92. Jaden Noot, Sierra Canyon HS (CA) (40 FV)
(4/132) 172. Matthew Wood, C, Penn State (35+ FV)
(18/552) 182. Jurrangelo Cijntje. SHP, Champagnat Catholic HS (FL) (35+ FV)
(7/222) 237. Ben Metzinger, 3B, Louisville (35+ FV)
(3/102) HM. Dylan O'Rae, SS, Northern Collegiate HS (CAN)
(12/372) HM. Luke Adams, 3B, Hinsdale Central HS (IL)
(6/192) HM. Tyler Woessner, RHP, Central Arizona J
Brown will need some tweaking to his wacky setup, but it's a good swing and he has been consistently getting results. He'll settle at one of the middle-infield positions, but the bat is the selling point here. Misiorowski, in some later outings, showed a fastball that sat around 99 mph, grading as an 80 for some, and a 70-or-80-grade slider when he nailed it. Earlier in the spring, he had 20 command in some outings and he's probably still a reliever, with some Carter Capps to how he does it. Moore is the son of Royals GM Dayton and had a down year but is 20 years old with above-average speed and defensive skills, along the lines of Nick Madrigal. Wood is a bat-first catcher but with decent defensive tools; Metzinger is 23 years old and has fringy raw power but had a huge breakout year; while Woessner is a power mid-90s arm with a relief look but improved command from the past year.
O'Rae was the first draft pick I wasn't very familiar with, but that's mostly because the best Canadian prospects were at domestic academy schools, so there wasn't as much buzz as usual. O'Rae is a 5-foot-9 plus runner with an advanced lefty stick and gap power; he sounds like a 35+ FV. The Brewers also took some high schoolers with varying degrees of signability on Day 3. Neal was an early second-round talent (hit-first, 17-year-old catcher with above-average speed) whom I'm guessing won't sign. Noot (sits in the mid-90s with above-average stuff but more hittable than it looks) was also rumored to be a tough sign before the draft. Cijntje (switch-pitcher: power righty with relief look, finesse lower-slot lefty) could be sophomore eligible at Mississippi State, and Adams (plus arm, developing offensively) was playing well in a college summer league.
(1/11) 4. Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech (50 FV, 77th on Top 100)
(1/14)14. Jett Williams, SS, Rockwall Heath HS (TX) (45 FV)
(2/52) 52. Blade Tidwell, RHP, Tennessee (40+ FV)
(3/90) 73. Brandon Sproat, RHP, Florida (40 FV)
(2/75) 75. Nick Morabito, SS, Gonzaga College HS (VA) (40 FV)
(12/359) 150. Paul Gervase, RHP, LSU (40 FV)
(9/269) 209. Chase Estep, 3B, Kentucky (35+ FV)
(4/119) 231. Jacob Reimer, 3B, Yucaipa HS (CA) (35+ FV)
(5/149) 265. D'Andre Smith, SS, USC (35+ FV)
(6/179) HM. Tyler Stuart, RHP, Southern Miss
(8/239) HM. Dylan Tebrake, RHP, Creighton
(19/569) HM. Jackson Lovich, SS, Blue Valley West HS (KS)
(7/209) HM. Jonah Tong, RHP, Crothers HS (CAN)
(13/389) HM. Dylan Ross, RHP, Georgia
Parada is a draft-eligible sophomore (he turns 21 in two weeks) with leverage to go back to school and likely go in the top 10 picks again, which is what I believe he used here. I don't know which teams were scared off by him saying he wouldn't sign in order to get to the Mets for the most money, but it's a coup for New York. Anyway, I think he's good enough to stick behind the plate but be more fine than fantastic defensively, while he's at least an average bat (probably exactly that given the power-focused approach). He has 25-homer power upside and above-average pitch selection. Parada should move quickly, but he doesn't have the frame or tools to project enormous value into his late 20s, when he might move off catcher.
Williams was long tied to the Mets and should be quick-moving among prep hitters due to his compact actions at the plate and in the field, with 15ish-homer upside and plus speed, fitting somewhere up the middle defensively. Tidwell popped up late in the pandemic-shortened 2020 spring as an older prep arm hitting the upper 90s; he was solid as a freshman, then took a step forward in the fall, but missed the first half of his sophomore year with shoulder soreness. His stuff is plus but his command brings up reliever questions.
Sproat almost signed out of high school but instead sat in the upper 90s for three years at Florida, transitioning to the rotation late this spring. He has off-speed stuff that flashes above-average levels and area command. Morabito is an advanced hitter who wasn't a showcase staple, so it's been against lesser competition. Morabito comes with more tools than most popups, as a plus runner with above-average raw power, but his defensive position is probably second base or left field. Reimer is a square-framed third-base fit with above-average raw power and some feel to hit. Tong is a popup power arm with a relief look who has been up to 96 this spring with an above-average breaker. Lovich is a projectable two-way athlete who fits more as a third baseman in pro ball.
Gervase emerged this year as the 6-foot-10 low-slot righty's strike throwing improved, helping his low-90s heater and above-average slider play. Given the flat approach angle and extension, Gervase offers a unique combination of traits. Estep is a 22-year-old hit-first infielder with solid nonconference numbers, while Smith is a second baseman with above-average raw power but below-average pitch selection. Stuart is a 6-foot-9, 250-pound sinker/slider reliever, Tebrake is a 23-year-old with fringy stuff but above-average command, and Ross is a 6-foot-5, 250-pound (sensing a theme?) power arm who was a third-to-fifth-round prospect last spring out of a Florida juco but threw only six innings this year at Georgia due to injury.
(1/17) 21. Justin Crawford, CF, Bishop Gorman HS (NV) (45 FV)
(3/93) 105. Gabriel Rincones, RF, Florida Atlantic (40 FV)
(4/122) 109. Alex MacFarlane, RHP, Miami (40 FV)
(5/152) 163. Orion Kerkering, RHP, USF (35+ FV)
(8/242) HM. Alex Rao, RHP, Notre Dame
(7/212) HM. Caleb Ricketts, C, San Diego
(6/182) HM. Mavis Graves, LHP, Eastside HS (SC)
(11/332) HM. Emaarion Boyd, CF, South Panola HS (MS)
(18/542) HM. Braylen Wimmer, 2B, South Carolina
(13/392) HM. Cade Fergus, CF, George Washington
The Phillies' first four picks all ranked very close to where they were picked. Crawford is a projectable, electric prospect with 80 speed reminiscent of his father, Carl, but with more power potential. He has bat-to-ball skills to make the whole profile work, but his pitch selection and in-game power are still questions. Rincones is a pure bat with power and patience who raised his profile at Florida Atlantic after not signing as a juco prospect. He'll have to hit because there isn't a ton of defensive value. MacFarlane is a loose righty with an above-average-to-plus three-pitch mix that couldn't quite stick in the weekend rotation, so he's like a premium ball of clay for the development staff. Kerkering has a power heater up to 97 mph and a plus slider but likely fits in a multi-inning relief role more than pure starter.
Rao is a 22-year-old pure reliever but was one of the last cuts from the top 300; he sits 94-97 mph and mixes in a plus splitter. The 22-year-old Ricketts is a work in progress behind the plate, but he also fits in a corner where his hit/power combo might be enough for a platoon role. Graves is a 6-foot-5 lefty who works 88-92 mph with a solid-average-flashing two-plane breaking ball. Boyd is a plus-plus runner with real defensive ability but is still raw at the plate. Wimmer is 6-foot-4, has plus raw power, plus speed and can capably play any position, but his pitch selection undermines the whole package. Fergus is a plus runner with above-average raw power but is old (21) for the class and had poor plate discipline at a lower level of competition.
(1/4) 2. Termarr Johnson, 2B, Mays HS (GA) (55 FV, 30th on Top 100)
(1/36) 43. Thomas Harrington, RHP, Campbell (45 FV)
(2/44) 61. Hunter Barco, LHP, Florida (40+ FV)
(4/110) 111. Michael Kennedy, LHP, Troy HS (NY) (40 FV)
(5/140) 156. Tres Gonzales, LF, Georgia Tech (35+ FV)
(3/83) 181. Jack Brannigan, RHP/3B, Notre Dame (35+ FV)
(8/230) 212. Cy Nielson, LHP, BYU (35+ FV)
(6/170) 272. Derek Diamond, RHP, Ole Miss (35+ FV)
(19/560) 287. Yoel Tejeda, RHP, North Broward Prep HS (FL)
(9/260) HM. Mike Walsh, RHP, Yale
(7/200) HM. J.P. Massey, RHP, Minnesota
(14/410) HM. Julian Bosnic, LHP, South Carolina
I'm about as in as you can be on Johnson; he's going in the top half of my Top 100 and I think he'll be in the top 10 before he graduates to the majors. Harrington is a sports science darling who also flashes four above-average pitches. Barco looked like a late first-rounder before Tommy John surgery this spring. It's a funky delivery and average fastball, but his splitter is plus and his slider is now at least above average. Kennedy is a classic cold-weather projection lefty (some scouts mention Jon Lester) who is also among the youngest in the draft.
Gonzales is an above-average hitter with a good approach but below-average in-game power. Brannigan had tools galore on display as a two-way standout for the Irish: He's got plus power, speed and defensive ability at third but is also up to 100 mph with a plus slider on the mound. His pitch selection at the plate is very poor and his command on the mound isn't there yet. He was another guy whom I was told I had too low when I put the final rankings up, but I would've moved him up to about 150 or so. The Pirates have found success with a similar player in J.C. Flowers (fourth round, 2019 draft) who is now pitcher-only and drafted a prep prospect in Bubba Chandler last spring who is playing both ways this year.
Nielsen is a power lefty up to 95 mph with an above-average slider but is a reliever. Diamond had a bad spring with diminished raw stuff, but it's been above average with starter traits in the past. Tejeda has plus-plus raw power but is a better pro prospect on the mound with solid-average stuff and some feel. Walsh popped up on the Cape before the draft with a plus slider and low-90s fastball. He could move quickly in relief after starting at Yale. Massey has an electric arm but had awful results at Minnesota, while Bosnic missed 2022 due to injury but showed above-average stuff last spring.
(1/15) 8. Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford HS (GA) (50 FV, 120th on extended Top 100)
(1/39) 32. Robby Snelling, LHP, McQueen HS (NV) (45 FV)
(2/53) 69. Adam Mazur, RHP, Iowa (40 FV)
(3/91) 100. Henry Williams, RHP, Duke (40 FV)
(4/120) 101. Lamar King, C, Calvert Hall HS (MD) (40 FV)
(5/150) 253. Nathan Martorella, 1B, Cal (35+ FV)
(12/360) 281. Austin Krob, LHP, TCU (35+ FV)
(11/330) HM. Isaiah Lowe, RHP, Combine Academy HS (NC)
(8/240) HM. Griffin Doersching, 1B, Oklahoma State
(16/480) HM. Henry Martinez, RHP, Miami Christian HS (FL)
The Padres have done it again, hunting upside and simply doing it better than the vast majority of teams. Pre-Tommy John, I thought Lesko was the best prep pitching prospect in a long time, and I still think he is the best pitcher in this draft even after surgery. Snelling had interest all over the back of the first round and is a former standout prep linebacker with advanced feel for two above-average pitches. Mazur is a popup college arm but had an uneven spring. Williams had top-50-pick buzz leading into the spring before missing the year with Tommy John surgery.
King is an under-the-radar find as a steady defender with above-average power and feel to hit. Martorella is a hit-first college bat with limited upside, Krob shows an above-average fastball/slider combo in a relief role, Lowe was up to 97 mph with an easy delivery and decent feel, Doersching has 80 raw power, and Martinez is a solid prep projection righty.
(2/66) 40. Carson Whisenhunt, LHP, East Carolina (45 FV)
(1/30) 63. Reggie Crawford, LHP, UConn (40+ FV)
(5/166) 123. Liam Simon, RHP, Notre Dame (40 FV)
(3/106) 170. William Kempner, RHP, Gonzaga (35+ FV)
(4/136) HM. Spencer Miles, RHP, Missouri
(12/376) HM. Tyler Vogel, RHP, Jacksonville
Crawford is one of the players I wanted to move up later in the process as it became clearer that I was underrating his upside. He missed the 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery and my Team USA summer look was 95-98 mph (I know he'd hit 100 mph in other outings) with a 55-or-60-grade slider and a relief look. He's also a pro-level hitter with some power, but the makeup and physical ability mean there is more here upside-wise.
Whisenhunt was also a mystery but in a different way. He was a steady 90-93 mph with a plus changeup, solid breaker and solid command last spring alongside at East Carolina. In his last preseason start, he was hitting 92-95 mph, touching 97, with a 55-or-60-grade breaker and 70-grade changeup with decent strike throwing; scouts thought he'd start the spring as a mid-first-rounder with a chance to move up from there. He missed the year due to a PED suspension and returned late, throwing on the Cape somewhere between those two versions stuffwise. I think the Giants saw two opportunities on pitchers who need some work but could've been top-half-of-the-first-round picks with a strong spring.
Simon emerged late in the spring with better-quality strikes to go with a fastball into the upper 90s, an above-average slider and a sturdy 6-foot-4 frame. Kempner has been up to 100 mph and mixed in a 55-grade slider from a low slot but is likely relief-only. Miles has average stuff but a fresh arm that could work with some tinkering from the Giants staff. Vogel has a data-friendly fastball/breaker combo that could work well in short stints. Four of the Day 3 West Coast college bats were fringy for the honorable mention cutoff, so I'd bet one of them breaks through: SS Thomas Gavello (Pacific, 13th round), LF Tanner O'Tremba (Arizona, 15th), 3B Andrew Kachel (Fresno State, 16th) and 1B Ethan Long (Arizona State, 20th).
(1/22) 18. Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State (45 FV)
(2/59) 70. Brycen Mautz, LHP, San Diego (40 FV)
(4/127) 83. Jimmy Crooks, C, Oklahoma (40 FV)
(6/187) 145. Max Rajcic, RHP, UCLA (40 FV)
(3/97) 188. Pete Hansen, LHP, Texas (35+ FV)
(5/157) 223. Victor Scott, CF, West Virginia (35+ FV)
(7/217) HM. Alex Iadisernia, RF, Elon
(10/307) HM. Tanner Jacobson, RHP, Queens University
(11/337) HM. Nathan Church, RF, UC Irvine
(12/367) HM. Michael Curialle, SS, UCLA
(20/607) HM. Gavin Van Kempen, RHP, Maple Hill HS (NY)
The Cards have been low-key excellent in the draft the past few years with high schoolers representing some of the best picks (Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn, Jordan Walker, Tink Hence) but they took only one this year and with their last pick. The Cards' later-round college finds (Gordon Graceffo, Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, Andre Pallante) have been even more impressive and there's probably more in this group.
Hjerpe has some Chris Sale vibes if you squint, essentially doing stuff mechanically you aren't supposed to do but also mixing in excellent feel for three above-average pitches with unique nonsinking action at what's usually a sinker arm slot. Mautz also throws in the low 90s but has excellent command of a plus slider, which means he's a very likely big leaguer of some kind, and the starter traits are there. Hansen is the third straight college lefty and I had him under-ranked as his velo spiked late in the year, helping everything profile better. Rajcic is another potential starter with above-average stuff and some feel. Jacobson is an intriguing flier as a two-way Division II college prospect with a 3000+ RPM breaker and a very high-spin fastball.
Crooks is a hit-first backstop with gap power, but his pitch selection needs some improvement. Scott is a plus-plus runner with contact skills and solid performance track record, but his lack of power might limit him to a reserve role. Iadisernia is a pure hitter with a feel for the game who's short in stature with average tools. Church is a 22-year-old performer who had a down 2021 due to a nagging wrist injury with fourth outfielder upside. Curialle was a touted recruit who never quite broke through at UCLA, but the tools are still solid, now with more of a utility upside. Van Kempen is a 6-foot-6 projectable righty who is young for the class, from a cold-weather state and has flashed the components for an above-average fastball and curveball.
(1/5) 7. Elijah Green, CF, IMG Academy HS (FL) (50 FV, 118th on extended Top 100)
(2/45) 39. Jake Bennett, LHP, Oklahoma (45 FV)
(3/84) 77. Trey Lipscomb, 3B, Tennessee (40 FV)
(4/111) 175. Brenner Cox, Rock Hill HS (TX) (35+ FV)
(9/261) 177. Max Romero Jr., C, Miami (35+ FV)
(5/141) 263. Jared McKenzie, CF, Baylor (35+ FV)
(7/201) 241. Riley Cornelio, RHP, TCU (35+ FV)
(8/231) HM. Chance Huff, RHP, Georgia Tech
(12/351) HM. Nick Peoples, RF, Northview HS (CA)
(20/591) HM. JeanPierre Ortiz, SS, IMG Academy HS (FL)
(13/381) HM. Marquis Grissom, RHP, Georgia Tech
(16/471) HM. Everett Cooper, SS, Pro Academy HS (NC)
Green was touted (by many including me) as the best prospect we'd seen in some time two years ago. Since then, he has faced the toughest competition in this prep class (two showcase/tournament summers and two IMG springs) with worrying swing-and-miss rates. He still showed an NFL physique and three 70-grade tools (raw power, speed, arm strength) in a center-field package. Green also improved his contact rate down the stretch this spring and earns raves for his makeup. If it all comes together, he could hit .270 and go 30/30 with highlight-reel plays in all phases, but there could be bumps along the road to get there.
Bennett finished strong in an Omaha run with a strong fastball/changeup combo, but his slider is his third-best pitch. Lipscomb has a past on the gridiron and had a huge breakout season on the best team in college baseball. Cox is a plus runner with physical tools but questions on his approach. Romero is solid across with a power-over-hit profile.
McKenzie looked like he'd be a second- or third-rounder at this time last year but struggled offensively. Cornelio has long looked like a potential power sinker/slider type, but he performed well in a starting role with a four-pitch mix this spring. Huff will show you 92-95, touching 97 mph as a starter with solid-average breaking stuff, but his results haven't been great and he's 22 years old, so he's likely a long-term reliever. Grissom was on the same staff and flashed three above-average pitches but has always had trouble throwing strikes. Peoples is 6-foot-5 with above-average bat speed and feel for lifting the ball, Ortiz is a steady glove with some contact skills and Cooper stood out in a strong lineup for his well-rounded tools.
American League
(1/1) 3. Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater HS (OK) (55 FV, 36th on Top 100)
(1/33) 35. Dylan Beavers, RF, Cal (45 FV)
(2/42) 45. Max Wagner, 3B, Clemson (45 FV)
(2/67) 48. Jud Fabian, CF, Florida (40+ FV)
(3/81) 88. Nolan McLean, RHP, Oklahoma State (40 FV)
(18/527) 104. Andrew Walters, RHP, Miami (40 FV)
(4/107) 120. Silas Ardoin, C, Texas (40 FV)
(17/497) 178. Carter Young, SS, Vanderbilt (35+ FV)
(5/137) 288. Trace Bright, RHP, Auburn (35+ FV)
(6/167) 293. Douglas Hodo III, CF, Texas (35+ FV)
(11/317) HM. Zach Showalter, RHP, Wesley Chapel HS (FL)
(7/197) HM. Preston Johnson, RHP, Mississippi State
(16/467) HM. Graham Firoved, RHP, Virginia Tech
I predictably liked what the Orioles did with their first six picks: position-player heavy and everyone drafted close to my ranking. Holliday was in the tightly packed group of three defensible No. 1 overall options, even though he was technically my third-ranked player. Beavers has a divisive hand pump in his swing but has growth markers and tools for the mid-first round if the O's can improve his timing. Wagner was a late popup with a 55 bat who might get to all of his fringy raw power and is a solid second or third baseman. The O's tried to get Fabian last year and landed their man this time, likely for less, as he was up-and-down this season but the tools are still there. McLean has Michael Lorenzen vibes with 80 raw power, a solid glove at third base and starter traits with above-average stuff; I think he's better as a pitcher long-term since it's a 20 or 30 grade bat. Ardoin is the son of a former big league catcher who is also likely to get a good bit of big league time.
Walters was a later flier who is unlikely to sign but was a solid third-rounder for me: 96-98 with plus characteristics, above-average off-speed stuff and solid command but probably relief only. Young is also unlikely to sign as he's set to be the everyday shortstop for LSU, but is a switch-hitter with plus raw power if he can get the contact elements to return. Bright is a solid utility righty with above-average stuff, Hodo has plus physical ability with some pitch selection concerns, Showalter is up to 96 mph with a good slider from a low slot but with a relief look, Johnson is a potentially quick-moving power middle relief type, and Firoved is another potential middle relief type with numbers-friendly, above-average stuff.
(1/24) 56. Mikey Romero, SS, Orange Lutheran HS (CA) (40+ FV)
(2/79) 71. Roman Anthony, RF, Stoneman Douglas HS (FL) (40 FV)
(9/279) 87. Brooks Brannon, C, Randleman HS (NC) (40 FV)
(2/41) 102. Cutter Coffey, SS, Liberty HS (CA) (40 FV)
(5/159) 133. Noah Dean, LHP, Old Dominion (40 FV)
(3/99) 134. Dalton Rogers, LHP, Southern Miss (40 FV)
(13/399) 184. Gavin Kilen, SS, Milton HS (WI) (35+ FV)
(6/189) 259. Alex Hoppe, RHP, UNC Greensboro (35+ FV)
(4/129) HM. Chase Meidroth, 2B, San Diego
(14/429) HM. Travis Sanders, SS, Copperas Cove HS (TX)
Romero was the No. 1 guy I wanted to move up within 24 hours of posting the final list. He's one of the better bets in the prep class to hit, he's a left-handed hitter with a track record, there's some raw power (but the swing isn't geared to tap into it yet), and he'll play in the infield (though his arm strength is just OK right now). I wanted to move him into the mid-30s and that also gives context for the Red Sox pick; it was a little above what was expected, but the 30s, maybe over slot in the 40s is what I was expecting for Romero. It makes sense given the preference for Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs, Nick Yorke and Marcelo Mayer under the Chaim Bloom regime that the Sox would be higher on Romero than other teams and might have also saved a bit here.
Anthony looked like a comp/second-round bat at times this spring, but he had a pretty meh summer and is a corner-only guy, so I get why he slid a bit. Brannon looked to be a back-half-of-the-second-rounder as a catcher with real power who had a huge spring but didn't do any summer events, and I'm guessing the Sox paid him down to the ninth round. Coffey had long been tied to the Sox like the other prep prospects (and like a half-dozen others they didn't take) and he's a bit polarizing, but he has bat speed, raw power and an infield fit (probably third base) along with a decent backup plan on the mound (low-90s sinker/slider from a low slot). Kilen will be a tough sign but I really liked him over the summer (my preseason list had Jackson Holliday 12th, Romero 24th and Kilen 25th) and thought he'd go in the second round like Noah Miller (a similar type from a similar area) did in last year's draft, but Kilen was underwhelming this spring. Sanders is another prep shortstop a tier or two below these players who could benefit from three seasons in college.
I ranked Dean and Rogers back-to-back as different types of power lefty relievers. Rogers has a low-slot, flat-angled fastball in the mid-90s and enough off-speed to go multiple innings. Dean is up to 100 mph with bat-missing shape, an above-average slurve, and is overall more of a one-inning-at-a-time fire-breather. Hoppe is 23½ but sits in the mid-90s with bat-missing shape, an above-average slider and better-than-you'd-think command for a college reliever. Meidroth is a smallish but productive second-base type with a good approach.
Chicago White Sox
(1/26) 34. Noah Schultz, LHP, Oswego East HS (IL) (45 FV)
(2/62) 37. Peyton Pallette, RHP, Arkansas (45 FV)
(3/101) 58. Jonathan Cannon, RHP, Georgia (40+ FV)
(4/131) 189. Jordan Sprinkle, SS, UC Santa Barbara (35+ FV)
(6/191) 218. Eric Adler, RHP, Wake Forest (35+ FV)
(11/341) HM. Jacob Burke, CF, Miami
(12/371) HM. Brooks Baldwin, 2B, UNC Wilmington
(7/221) HM. Mark McLaughlin, RHP, Tennessee
Schultz was seen as one of the hardest to sign among players who didn't pull their names out of the draft, so it was surprising to see his name called in the first round, but he also has a real shot to be the best pitcher in this draft so it wasn't shocking. He has plus physical ability at 6-foot-9 and slings from a low slot but is up to 96 mph and flashes a plus slurve and changeup. The components are here for a mid-first-round pick but he missed a couple of months with illness and hit his stride with overall feel just before the draft in a college summer league.
Pallette gives some Walker Buehler vibes but is even a bit smaller, and he missed the whole 2022 season with Tommy John surgery. Cannon had some slight medical concerns on his arm the past two years but he has been pretty durable and went from a second-round talent last spring to adding a new plus cutter this year, so he might move quickly. Sprinkle had comp round buzz out of the gates this spring but struggled mightily since then and he committed to Arkansas in the portal if he doesn't sign. Adler is another in the Wake power righty factory, Burke is a multisport athlete who improved in his only ACC season, Baldwin is a contact-focused utility type who might swing a little too much, and McLaughlin is an effective reliever along the lines of his older brother (Sean) in the Angels system.
Cleveland Guardians
(1/16) 31. Chase DeLauter, RF, James Madison (45 FV)
(1/37) 38. Justin Campbell, RHP, Oklahoma State (45 FV)
(2/54) 65. Parker Messick, LHP, Florida State (40+ FV)
(10/301) 67. Jacob Zibin, RHP, TNXL Academy HS (FL) (40 FV)
(3/92) 84. Joe Lampe, CF, Arizona State (40 FV)
(8/241) 146. Jackson Humphries, LHP, Fuquay-Varina HS (NC) (40 FV)
(6/181) 193. Dylan DeLucia, RHP, Ole Miss (35+ FV)
(4/121) 252. Nate Furman, 2B, Charlotte (35+ FV)
(11/331) HM. Magnus Ellerts, RHP, Florida Southwestern JC
(7/211) HM. Javier Santos, RHP, Georgia Premier HS (GA)
(5/151) HM. Guy Lipscomb, CF, Belmont
DeLauter was a favorite of draft model teams given his strongest qualities tend to be emphasized by those front offices: Cape performance, exit velos, young for the class. It shouldn't be surprising that the foremost model-using team drafted him at the top end of his expected range. His spring was injury-marred, mechanically inconsistent and included rough performances against pro arms, but he hit well overall and still has above-average everyday player upside. We'll see if the Guardians can make the most of a college bat (I compared DeLauter to former Cleveland first-rounder OF Bradley Zimmer) in the same way they have with college arms. Lampe is a 70 runner with gap power but might swing a little too much to be positive he'll get to all of those contact skills. Furman is the next Steven Kwan waiting to happen, and Lipscomb is an 80 runner with very limited power.
The Guardians scooped up some intriguing prep arms with the best being Canadian Zibin. He works 91-94 with a low-attack-angle sinker that has hit 97 mph, a changeup that flashes plus and a solid-average slider. He reclassified late so he's one of the youngest players in the whole draft class with some of the best arm speed in the class (i.e. I bet he throws a lot harder in a few years). Humphries is a low-90s lefty with a plus hook but some reliever traits, and Santos is a very likely reliever but he has been into the upper 90s.
Campbell is a prime example of the Cleveland college pitcher strategy: strike thrower with no plus pitches -- but they could become pluses with more arm speed. Messick isn't going to be on any magazine covers but might be the most likely big leaguer in the whole draft. He'll sit in the low 90s with a plus changeup and average breaking ball but excellent feel. DeLucia finished strong with solid-average stuff in a title-winning season for Ole Miss, and Ellerts is committed to Florida but finished strong with projection, starter traits and average stuff: exactly the type of prospect Cleveland succeeds most with.
Detroit Tigers
(1/12) 13. Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech (45 FV)
(2/51) 33. Peyton Graham, SS, Oklahoma (45 FV)
(5/147) 121. Luke Gold, 2B, Boston College (40 FV)
(4/117) 256. Trey Melton, RHP, San Diego State (35+ FV)
(9/267) 298. Andrew Jenkins, 1B, Georgia Tech (35+ FV)
(6/177) HM. Danny Serretti, SS, North Carolina
(7/207) HM. Seth Stephenson, CF, Tennessee
(13/387) HM. Dominic Johnson, CF, Kansas State
Jung is a hit-first infielder with fringe-to-average current defensive ability at second and third base. There's plus raw power but it plays closer to average due to his swing path -- but he's a top-half-of-the-first-rounder due to making lots of contact due to that same swing path, so it's a little risky to try to tweak something with a pretty polished, everyday player.
Graham is electric with plus speed, plus power and a plus arm with a shortstop fit. He had terrible pitch selection until midseason, when he steadied his head better and cut his strikeout rate in half. He'll always be a power-over-contact tool shed with some Tim Anderson vibes. Gold is a second base/corner type who's bat-first with average-ish raw power and fringy physical tools. Melton wanted $1 million last year and his price wasn't met as his above-average stuff was a little too hittable. He shortened his arm action and added a sinker, so he's now a bit closer to a finished product.
Jenkins made progress this year tapping into his plus raw power, but he's still probably a platoon/reserve bat in the end. Serretti is a hit-first middle infielder who you're hoping can be a utility type, while Stephenson and Johnson are burners with some contact skills but limited power.
Houston Astros
(1/28) 11. Drew Gilbert, CF, Tennessee (45+ FV)
(2/64) 26. Jacob Melton, CF, Oregon State (45 FV)
(4/133) 93. Trey Dombroski. LHP, Monmouth (40 FV)
(11/343) 126. Ryan Clifford, RF, Pro5 Academy HS (NC) (40 FV)
(2/80) 137. Andrew Taylor, RHP, Central Michigan (40 FV)
(3/103) 174. Michael Knorr, RHP, Coastal Carolina (35+ FV)
(7/223) 246. A.J. Blubaugh, RHP, Milwaukee (35+ FV)
(8/253) 292. Tyler Guilfoil, RHP, Kentucky (35+ FV)
(12/373) HM. Zach Dezenzo, SS, Ohio State
(16/493) HM. Tim Borden, SS, Georgia Tech
(18/553) HM. Isaiah Jackson, CF, Cienega HS (AZ)
Gilbert is the guy with the biggest gap between consensus industry ranking and my ranking, so you can click over to my report on the top 300 to see why I'm so bullish on the Brett Gardner/Adam Eaton type skill set here. Melton had late momentum into the late first/comp but lasted until the late second, so I'm assuming there's an over-slot deal here. His swing load is a bit funky, but there's center-field tools with some power. Dombroski is a mid-major pitchability lefty who works 88-91 mph but his above-average slider and command mean he's a high-probability big leaguer of some sort. Taylor is a classic Cleveland-style strike thrower with solid-average stuff that could explode with improved arm speed. Knorr gave me Patrick Weigel vibes as a mid-90s power arm with four pitches that probably fit best a couple innings at a time.
Clifford has long been one of the better hit/power combos in the prep class but comes with limited defensive value and is older than many of his peers. Blubaugh is a small school arm who popped on the Cape, showing a 92-95 mph heater with bat-missing shape and an above-average changeup. Guilfoil is a later-blooming SEC reliever with ordinary raw stuff but an invisible fastball. Dezenzo has real contact issues but at least plus power and a shot to stay in the field. Borden also is older and has swing-and-miss concerns, but there's pop and hands for the infield. Jackson is a big 6-foot-3 corner type with plus raw power from the left side and a plus arm, but chases too much.
Kansas City Royals
(1/9) 10. Gavin Cross, RF, Virginia Tech (45+ FV)
(2/49) 42. Cayden Wallace, 3B, Arkansas (45 FV)
(6/175) 116. Hayden Dunhurst, C, Ole Miss (40 FV)
(20/595) 199. Austin Charles, SS/RHP, Stockdale HS (CA) (35+ FV)
(11/325) 240. David Sandlin, RHP, Oklahoma (35+ FV)
(4/115) 283. Steven Zobac, RHP, Cal (35+ FV)
(3/87) 291. Mason Barnett, RHP, Auburn (35+ FV)
(5/145) 300. Hunter Patteson, LHP, UCF (35+ FV)
(7/205) HM. Mack Anglin, RHP, Clemson
(19/565) HM. Tommy Szczepanski, RHP, Garber HS (MI)
(13/385) HM. Ryan Ramsey, LHP, Maryland
(9/265) HM. Brandon Johnson, RHP, Ole Miss
Cross was long mocked somewhere within a few picks of this Royals selection, for almost a year in advance. He gives some J.J. Bleday vibes as a productive big conference college outfielder who likely settles in as an above-average right fielder with a sweet swing that offers an above-average hit/power combination. Wallace was a second-third-round talent two years ago out of high school and largely held serve with steady improvements in the SEC. There's some Austin Riley if you squint, but with merely 60 raw power instead of 70-plus. I still wonder if Wallace's pitch selection will allow for the in-game hit and power to play average or better. Dunhurst has at least a 70-grade arm and steady glove along with the tools to hit, but his actual results and setup at the plate have been a little frustrating to watch.
Charles is an intriguing two-way talent as a 6-foot-7 shortstop (likely third baseman long-term) with good hands and huge raw power (but understandable contact concerns) while he's a loose and raw mid-90s arm with a decent slider on the mound. Szczepanski is a cold weather 6-foot-4 projection righty who is into the mid-90s but still pretty raw.
Sandlin was a four-pitch starter at Oklahoma with solid-average stuff that might play better in a multi-inning relief role in pro ball. Zobac has a plus 93-96 mph fastball and above-average slider but lacks starter traits, so he needs to pick them up soon or he'll profile more in middle relief. Barnett is a pretty similar pitcher to Zobac in that he won't be a 180-innings starter in all likelihood, but there's above-average raw stuff so a relief role is a possible. Patteson looked like a third-to-fourth-rounder when he was getting whiffs as a starter by reaching into the mid-90s this year, but he needed Tommy John surgery at midseason. Anglin will also sit mid-90s and mix in a plus breaker, but his command fits in a relief role. Johnson sits (wait for it) in the mid-90s and could be a quick-moving middle relief type. Ramsey is a totally different type as a pitchability lefty with fringe stuff, standout changeup and above-average command.
Los Angeles Angels
(1/13) 12. Zach Neto, SS, Campbell (45+ FV)
(3/89) 90. Ben Joyce, RHP, Tennessee (40 FV)
(4/118) 117. Jake Madden, RHP, Northwest Florida JC (40 FV)
(11/328) 125. Caden Dana, RHP, Don Bosco Prep HS (NJ) (40 FV)
(5/148) 142. Sonny DiChiara, 1B, Auburn (40 FV)
(15/448) 219. Bryce Osmond, RHP, Oklahoma State (35+ FV)
(6/178) 247. Victor Mederos, RHP, Oklahoma State (35+ FV)
(20/598) HM. Brendan Tinsman, C, Wake Forest
Neto is another favorite of mine in the class, and you'll land there too if you focus on what he can do: plus raw contact skills, plus speed, plus defensive ability, plus arm (mid-90s as a closer). His contact skills play well in games but down a bit because of a big leg-kick setup that helps his power become much better than you'd expect. Neto will have to dial this in, but he's probably a big leaguer if he just puts the ball in play and I think he'll do better than that.
You definitely know Ben Joyce. He has an 80-grade fastball that sits at 100 mph, peaking at 105 mph, and he also mixes in a breaker that flashes plus and a solid-average changeup. The strikes are fine given the raw stuff, but he's got a short track record of pitching in big spots and has already had two elbow procedures -- in addition to throwing as hard as a human possibly can. You probably also know DiChiara, who is almost 23 years old but packs plus-plus pitch selection and at least 60-grade power into his 263-pound frame, so this might work.
Madden has plus physical skills with above-average raw stuff, but at a lanky 6-foot-6, his length can create strike-throwing problems. Dana is an intriguing cold-weather projection righty with above-average raw stuff that could one day be plus and components to throw strikes. Osmond and Mederos are power arms from the same school who haven't quite corralled their above-average stuff enough to project as anything other than multi-inning relief -- but they have some pieces to work with. Tinsman is a 22-year-old catcher who played in a hitter-friendly park where he hit 24 bombs and posted an OPS over 1.100.
Minnesota Twins
(1/8) 6. Brooks Lee, 3B, Cal Poly (50 FV, 99th on Top 100)
(2/48) 17. Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama (45 FV)
(2/68) 74. Tanner Schobel, SS, Virginia Tech (40 FV)
(20/593) 190. Korbyn Dickerson, CF, Trinity HS (KY) (35+ FV)
(6/174) 208. Jorel Ortega, 2B, Tennessee (35+ FV)
(4/114) HM. Andrew Morris, RHP, Texas Tech
(9/264) HM. Cory Lewis, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
(14/414) HM. Omari Daniel, SS, Walker HS (GA)
(16/474) HM. Jankel Ortiz, SS, Academia Presbiteriana HS (PR)
Lee is a slam-dunk big leaguer and likely everyday third baseman, but I think it's just a collection of 50-and-55-grade tools rather than true pluses. Prielipp has a 70-grade slider and has been sitting 92-94 and hitting a bit higher. He has some Robbie Ray vibes if he can continue ramping things up to his former self post-Tommy John surgery. Schobel is a versatile defender with a high contact rate but below-average power.
Ortega had a big breakout year with the Vols but has average raw tools and would move to a corner if he isn't playing second base. Lewis is a sturdy 6-foot-5 and has fringe raw stuff to the eye, but his heater plays up due to bat-missing characteristics; if Minnesota can tease out more arm speed the Twins might have a find. Morris has an above-average heater and slurve but probably fits best in relief. Dickerson is likely a tough sign but has everyday potential as a plus runner with some contact skills. Daniel is a plus runner, defender and thrower with a raw offensive game.
New York Yankees
(1/25) 20. Spencer Jones, RF, Vanderbilt (45 FV)
(2/61) 60. Drew Thorpe, RHP, Cal Poly (40+ FV)
(3/100) 153. Trystan Vrieling, RHP, Gonzaga (40 FV)
(4/130) 236. Anthony Hall, RF, Oregon (35+ FV)
(18/550) 258. Sebastian Keane, RHP, Northeastern (35+ FV)
(5/160) HM. Eric Reyzelman, RHP, LSU
(6/190) HM. Chase Hampton, RHP, Texas Tech
(7/220) HM. Cam Schlitter, RHP, Northeastern
(12/370) HM. Jackson Fristoe, RHP, Mississippi State
Jones was long tied to the Yankees both because he belonged around their pick and also due to his striking similarities to Aaron Judge at the same stage, even if that actual outcome is incredibly unlikely. Thorpe's velocity fluctuated this spring depending on how often he threw his fastball, but he has shown 92-94, touching 96 mph, while his plus changeup and feel are always there. Vrieling has data-friendly shape to his stuff and starter projection but is still a little inconsistent on some of the finer points. Hall is a likely right fielder with 20-homer upside and a decent approach.
The Yankees continued to follow a script that has worked for them recently in the late rounds: intriguing college arms. Keane (tough spring with diminished stuff but has back-end starter projection in there) and Schlitter (6-foot-6 righty with ordinary stuff but some feel) are from the same staff. Reyzelman was literally No. 301 for the list (sits upper 90s and throws only that pitch but it gets whiffs; already had Tommy John surgery), I saw Hampton in the regional and liked the components (above-average fastball, solid-average slider in multi-inning relief), and Fristoe (starter traits, above-average stuff but command backed up) had another down spring relative to high expectations.
Oakland Athletics
(1/19) 23. Daniel Susac, C, Arizona (45 FV)
(2/56) 47. Henry Bolte, CF, Palo Alto HS (CA) (45 FV)
(3/95) 103. Colby Thomas, RF, Mercer (40 FV)
(2/69) 124. Elliott Clark, RF, Michigan (40 FV)
(4/124) 139. Jacob Watters, RHP, West Virginia (40 FV)
(11/334) HM. Christian Oppor, LHP, Columbus HS (WI)
(6/184) HM. Brennan Milone, 3B, Oregon
I was a bit lower on Susac than others, as I think his clear standout abilities right now (is solid behind the plate, really strong contact rate) won't age that well because of some of his weaker qualities (average bat speed, poor chase rate, long limbs). He's a likely big leaguer with a third-catcher floor, I just wonder what the ultimate impact will be when he gets there. Bolte had some scouts whispering the name George Springer if they caught him on the right day, as he is 6-foot-3 with 70 raw power and 60 speed but questions on his hit tool. Thomas is another tool shed with plus raw and big exit velos but played in a mid-major conference, had a shoulder injury this year and needs to cut down his swing. Clark is much more polished at the plate but comes with a limited ceiling as a corner outfielder with 15-20 homers upside.
Watters has some similarities to Jeff Criswell (former A's second-rounder in 2020) as a big power righty with above-to-plus stuff but could fit better in multi-inning relief. Oppor is a late-rising lefty who has been into the mid-90s but is still pretty raw. Milone had late momentum into the early rounds out of high school for his pure hitting ability but underperformed a bit at South Carolina and Oregon.
Seattle Mariners
(1/21) 19. Cole Young, SS, North Allegheny HS (PA) (45 FV)
(2/74) 55. Walter Ford, RHP, Pace HS (FL) (40+ FV)
(2/58) 64. Tyler Locklear, 3B, VCU (40+ FV)
(4/126) 203. A.J. Izzi, RHP, Oswego East HS (IL) (35+ FV)
(6/186) 213. Josh Hood, SS, North Carolina State (35+ FV)
(9/276) 274. Tyler Gough, RHP, JSerra Catholic HS (CA) (35+ FV)
Young is probably the least exciting of the top-tier prep bats who were locks for the first round. He's not without tools -- plus runner and thrower, 15-18 homer power, above-average lefty bat, shortstop fit -- but even if he hits that upside he's a solid everyday player rather than a star. Locklear is a player I was planning to move up a bit after the rankings came out, into the 50s somewhere. He has plus raw power and excellent pitch selection, to the point that the other stuff -- mid-major competition, probably a right-handed hitting/fielding first baseman -- doesn't really matter. Hood got caught in the Ivy League vortex of not playing games but recovered well as a hit-over-power shortstop/third baseman tweener.
Ford was one of the most exciting members of a historically deep pitching class. He's a sports science standout who flashes two plus pitches and he did that as a 16-year-old last summer, there's just some polish to be added. Izzi is an impressive projectable 6-foot-3 righty who was regularly in the mid-90s this spring, but his fastball shape makes him more hittable than you'd like. Gough had injury issues the past year but looked great at the MLB draft combine, showing above-average stuff while he has always been a strong strike thrower.
Tampa Bay Rays
(2/65) 57. Brock Jones, CF, Stanford (40+ FV)
(2/71) 72. Ryan Cermak, CF, Illinois State (40 FV)
(4/134) 76. Dominic Keegan, C, Vanderbilt (40 FV)
(2/70) 78. Chandler Simpson, 2B, Georgia Tech (40 FV)
(1/29) 94. Xavier Isaac, 1B, East Forsyth HS (NC) (40 FV)
(17/524) 141. Levi Huesman, LHP, Hanover HS (VA)
(9/284) 152. Chris Villaman, LHP, North Carolina State (40 FV)
(5/164) 161. Jalen Battles, SS, Arkansas (35+ FV)
(6/194) 176. Gary Gill-Hill, RHP, Kennedy Catholic HS (NY) (35+ FV)
(19/584) 220. Quinn Mathews, LHP, Stanford
(16/494) 269. Kamren James, 3B, Mississippi State
(3/104) HM. Trevor Martin, RHP, Oklahoma State
(10/314) HM. Cade Halemanu, RHP, Hawaii
(20/614) HM. Matt Wyatt, RHP, Virginia
Isaac was another shocking pick. He was injured for the summer showcase season but was a well-known name already, then had buzz all spring as scouts raved about his feel to hit and 70-grade power. There was still a lot of hesitation (maybe someone would pay him top-of-the-second-round money late in the second round?) because of his sheer size (listed a 6-foot-4, 240 pounds) and the lack of margin for error that creates on projecting a 16-year-old. Tampa Bay almost landed prep 1B Jacob Walsh last summer (he opted to go to Oregon) and took a college first baseman in the second round last summer (Kyle Manzardo), so the Rays certainly aren't scared of this type of player.
Gill-Hill has a big signability number as a late popup with a silky-smooth arm that was into the mid-90s. Huesman popped up last fall with an excellent performance at Jupiter, showing a low-90s heater and above-average breaking ball. He was seen well this spring as Braves sixth-rounder Seth Keller was on the same team and they were at the NHSI tournament this year.
Jones started very slowly this spring and scouts hung third-round grades on him after calling him a sure first-rounder in the summer. He rebounded, refound his swing and finished strong mostly regaining that lost ground, but questions remain about his ultimate offensive impact and if he can stick long-term in center field. Cermak is a plus-plus runner with a plus arm and plus raw power, but his approach, pitch selection and swing mechanics will all need some work. Keegan is a catcher/first-base tweener but teams universally believe he'll hit and with some power; I probably would've moved him down to around 100 if I made late adjustments to the Top 300.
Simpson is an 80 runner with a 50 arm, so I'd make him a second-base/center-field type utility guy but his plus-plus pitch selection and standout bat control are why he'll be a big leaguer, even if there's very little power to his game. Battles is a 22-year-old but flashes solid-average power and a shortstop fit with decent SEC production, so there's plenty to like while James is another 22-year-old SEC performer who is more power-over-hit with pitch selection questions. Villaman has a chance to start but his standout fastball/changeup combo might work better in multi-inning relief. Mathews sits in the low 90s but relies more on his slider and changeup which are both above average, so he might switch to a starting role in pro ball. Martin was a late cut from the Top 300 as Okie State's closer who sits in the mid-90s with good shape and a solid slider. Halemanu will touch 97 mph and mixes in a 55-grade changeup and improving slider, but is on the starter/reliever borderline right now. Wyatt is a development department ball of clay who shows three above-average pitches on the right day, but hasn't quite put it together for Virginia.
Texas Rangers
(4/109) 24. Brock Porter, RHP, St. Mary's HS (MI) (45 FV)
(1/3) 54. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Tri-Cities (Independent) (40+ FV)
(5/139) 112. Chandler Pollard, CF, Woodward Academy HS (GA) (40 FV)
(7/199) 147. Luis Ramirez, RHP, Long Beach State (40 FV)
(6/169) 158. Tommy Specht, CF, Wahlert HS (IA) (35+ FV)
(20/589) 195. Matt Scott, RHP, Barlow HS (CT) (35+ FV)
(19/559) 238. Grayson Saunier, RHP, Collierville HS (TN) (35+ FV)
The Rocker pick was legitimately shocking. Last summer, he went 10th overall for a bonus that would've been a couple picks over slot while a couple of premium prep position players still remained on the board. This summer, he went for a slightly smaller bonus after not pitching much and having shoulder surgery in the interim, with much less leverage as a 22-year-old. It's not indefensible or even a bad pick for the Rangers, it was just shocking considering the over/under on where Rocker was expected to go was about 20th overall, with more market forces pushing him lower than higher.
On the mound, he's still largely the same guy as last year, with a lower slot and what will probably be a better-shaped fastball for whiffs but maybe more issues with lefties, which could become an issue next year when they try to stretch him out into a starter. Rocker was a clear candidate to be moved up my board late as it became clear that teams weren't as troubled by the medical questions/history as I'd expected. He probably would've landed in the 20s somewhere.
Porter is the prize with the savings from the Rocker pick as a legitimate mid-first-round talent, though I rated him lower since he's exactly the type of pitcher (big, older, velocity-reliant prep righty with some command/delivery questions) I worry about more than others. I also spoke with some scouts who thought Porter was a top-10 pick after dominating appearances this spring, in which he showed three-plus pitches with starter command. This is a high-risk/reward pick on the back of the Rocker pick, which is more high floor (slam-dunk big leaguer and soon as a reliever) with an unclear but probably still high ceiling.
Ramirez lit up Pitching Ninja this spring with a lively sinker/slider combo at Mississippi State, but his command and health came and went. Pollard is an electric 80-grade runner with an improved swing and some chance to play the infield, but likely settles in center field. Specht is a plus runner who fits in center field but is still pretty raw, coming from the same Iowa high school as last year's over-slot pick Ian Moller. Scott is a very tough sign committed to Stanford and Saunier is also tough (committed to Ole Miss), but both are projection righties with flashes of above-average stuff.
Toronto Blue Jays
(2/77) 15. Tucker Toman, 3B, Hammond HS (SC) (45 FV)
(1/23) 16. Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage HS (FL) (45 FV)
(2/78) 53. Cade Doughty, 3B, LSU (40+ FV)
(2/60) 82. Josh Kasevich, SS, Oregon (40 FV)
(20/608) 132. Greg Pace Jr., CF, Edison HS (MI) (40 FV)
(3/98) 173. Alan Roden, 1B, Creighton (35+ FV)
(13/398) 243. Bo Bonds, RHP, Louisiana (35+ FV)
(5/158) 260. Mason Fluharty, LHP, Liberty (35+ FV)
(7/218) 286. Peyton Williams, 1B, Iowa (35+ FV)
(9/278) HM. Deveraux Harrison, RHP, Long Beach State
(6/188) HM. T.J. Brock, RHP, Ohio State
Barriera was a nice find at 23rd overall for the Jays. Again, I'm generally more scared than teams by hard-throwing prep pitchers up high, but Barriera comes with a long track record of health and performance along with four pitches that flash plus and a unique personal story. Toman was ranked one spot ahead of him on my list as one of my picks to click and somehow lasted until the late second round, in one of the coups of the draft. Pace is the last prep pick of note and will be a tough sign but is an 80 runner with an improving offensive game.
On the college bat end of things we have Doughty (long track record of hitting, second/third-base fit, no plus tool), Kasevich (hit-over-power type with a good approach that is a definite infield fit even if it might not be shortstop), Roden (a likely corner fit with elite bat-to-ball and some raw power) and Williams (data-friendly exit velos and pitch selection, limited margin for error given the position).
On the college pitching side we have Fluharty (data-friendly shape to above-average fastball/slider in a relief fit), Harrison (college reliever might be able to start in pro ball with solid-average four-pitch mix), Brock (older reliever sits in the mid-90s with a plus slider but well below-average command) and Bonds (juco transfer has a data-friendly fastball and above-average curve, but fits in relief).