The first two rounds of the 2022 MLB draft are in the books, and it was a surprise-filled night of twists and turns from the very start in Los Angeles.
Did the Baltimore Orioles make the right choice by taking Jackson Holliday with the No. 1 overall pick? How did Kumar Rocker end up going No. 3 overall to the Texas Rangers? And who are the big names you need to know for Day 2 of the draft?
We asked ESPN MLB experts Alden Gonzalez, David Schoenfield and Kiley McDaniel to break it all down before McDaniel ranks the best available players for Day 2.
There were three clear favorites for the top pick this year. Did Baltimore take the right one in Jackson Holliday?
Gonzalez: It's so hard to know because the top tier of talent in this year's draft consisted of teenagers. The Orioles' choices, essentially, were a true shortstop (Holliday), a true center fielder (Druw Jones) and a true hitter (Termarr Johnson). Orioles general manager Mike Elias likened it to "deciding what to order in a five-star restaurant." In Holliday, they got someone who posted an incredible .685/.749/1.392 slash line as a high school senior and made tremendous growth in all areas of his game over the past 12 months. His swing is more refined than Jones' and his defensive upside is greater than Johnson's. He might have been the safest among those three choices.
Schoenfield: When in doubt, I would default to the best hit tool and that belongs to Johnson -- but no second baseman has ever gone with the first pick in the draft, so it's understandable the Orioles would go with the player at a premium position. If Baltimore had made its decision purely about going under slot, I think it would have been a mistake. Jones has the best tools across the board and you have to be careful about overthinking this too much -- even if this strategy worked for Mike Elias when he ran Houston's draft the year the Astros selected Carlos Correa over Byron Buxton.
McDaniel: I'd have been fine with any of those three. I assumed Holliday would be the least likely of the group to be the top pick, because most didn't think he was the best talent of that group and, like Jones, was expected to sign for close to slot value, while signing Johnson would be a good bit cheaper. I think Jones cutting a deal at 2 might have freed up a head-to-head with Johnson and Holliday. From that perspective, Holliday is much more of a traditional pick: a lefty-hitting shortstop with above-average tools across the board.
Kumar Rocker to the Rangers! What's your take on the most shocking pick of the night?
Gonzalez: I love it, shocked as I might have been by it. The Rangers spent a combined $500 million on middle infielders Corey Seager and Marcus Semien on Nov. 30. They want to contend very soon, and what they need -- on their major league club and, perhaps to a lesser extent, their farm system -- is top-shelf starting pitching. If Rocker and Jack Leiter, both 22, develop the way their talents at Vanderbilt suggested, they'll form a devastating duo in Arlington. By choosing Rocker so high, the Rangers will save about $2 million of their bonus pool, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan, and they land by far the most talented arm available in what is a relatively weak crop of pitching.
Schoenfield: Wow. Most of all, I'm happy for Rocker, who had no recourse last year after the Mets declined to make a bonus offer other than to wait and enter the draft again. I also love the idea of seeing Rocker and Leiter together again in the Rangers' rotation. How fun would that be? But this also feels like the riskiest selection in the top 10 given Rocker's shoulder surgery last fall. Certainly the Rangers feel confident after seeing the medical reports, but I wonder if the Rangers leaned a little too much on organizational need in reaching for Rocker.
McDaniel: We were getting most of the picks about 15-30 seconds ahead of time on the ESPN set, and when we were told it would be Rocker, we all looked at each other with mouths open and eyes wide. I mocked Rocker in the middle of the first round and thought, if anything, that might be a little high and he'd end up going in the 20s. The logic of Rocker lasting until the 10th pick last year, then undergoing a shoulder procedure and with an unclear further medical, but going seven picks higher this year is wild. But this year's class was also a much weaker college pitching crop and a different value proposition. I think he'll go straight to Double-A and pitch a couple of innings at a time, getting to the big leagues quickly as he stretches out into longer outings and eventually starting.
Your favorite pick -- and the pick that has you most scratching your head?
Gonzalez: This one is probably obvious, but Johnson, a consensus top-three talent, fell to the Pittsburgh Pirates at No. 4 after the Rangers shocked the industry with their Rocker pick. He's the best pure hitter in this draft and at times was a favorite to go No. 1 overall to the Orioles. He'll probably move to second base, but he might eventually hit like Robinson Cano. The head-scratcher for me was high school shortstop Jett Williams going 14th overall to the Mets, simply because it's always difficult to envision someone 5-foot-8 getting drafted so high. But scouts love that kid, so I'll trust them.
Schoenfield: Cam Collier to the Reds at No. 18. Teams develop analytical models for the draft and history suggests age on draft day is an important factor. Collier is only 17, but he already has played a year of junior college and this summer in the Cape league, performing well against pitchers several years older than him. I've pointed this out elsewhere, but Francisco Lindor and Correa were both 17 when they were drafted. That kind of success is no guarantee for Collier, but don't be surprised if he ends up the steal of the draft given his draft position.
My head-scratcher is the Rays going with slugging first baseman Xavier Isaac with the 29th pick -- only because it's an unusual pick for the Rays, who love to go with versatile, up-the-middle position players. Of course, knowing the Rays, he'll be hitting 40 home runs a year down the road.
McDaniel: For value, I loved Drew Gilbert (my 11th-ranked player) at 28th overall, and in terms of players I love just going in good spots, I'm on Johnson at fourth overall, Dylan Lesko at 15th overall, Cam Collier at 18th overall and Owen Murphy at 20th overall. In terms of picks well ahead of where I was expecting (non-Rocker division), Gabriel Hughes at 10th overall, Xavier Isaac at 29th overall and Sal Stewart at 32nd overall were big surprises that I wasn't thrilled about on value. Even those, though, still need to be seen in the bigger context of bonus pool savings and the teams' following picks.
Let's talk upside -- which player taken tonight is most likely to win a Cy Young or MVP someday?
Gonzalez: Elijah Green compared himself to Mike Trout, so that's my pick. In all seriousness, though, Green has the kind of upside to reach the MVP level Trout taps into almost routinely. The big question, of course, is whether he can develop enough to actually attain it. The son of former NFL tight end Eric Green, he is already built like a tight end himself -- standing 6-foot-3, 225 pounds while boasting elite power, speed and arm strength. He seemed like a slam-dunk No. 1 overall pick heading into 2021 before some swing-and-miss issues began to manifest themselves. But those can be fixed, especially for someone who's only 18.
Schoenfield: Hey, Brandon Barriera already said all those teams that passed on him will regret their decision. Gotta love the confidence. So he's my Cy Young pick. For MVP, I'll go with Jones. MVP voters these days love a broad range of skills, and Jones could turn into an elite defensive center fielder with power -- and maybe go one spot higher in MVP voting than his dad, who finished second in the 2005 NL vote.
McDaniel: For the Cy Young, it's my top pitcher: Dylan Lesko. If you made me stretch for some upside arm types that could one day do it, Noah Schultz is very interesting: a 6-foot-9, low-slot lefty with three plus-flashing pitches. Also, Brandon Barriera will flash four plus pitches from the left side, and I just love the projection with Owen Murphy (think Jack Flaherty). MVP seems a little easier. It's just the highest-upside position players, and that's the four prep position players at the top: Jones, Holliday, Johnson and Elijah Green. I would still take Lesko above all of those.
What is your biggest overall takeaway from Day 1 of the draft?
Gonzalez: The lack of pitching, which was evident not just with Rocker, but with Cade Horton going seventh to the Chicago Cubs and Gabriel Hughes going 10th to the Colorado Rockies. Horton (22nd on Kiley McDaniel's Top 300), Hughes (30th) and Rocker (54th) were nowhere near that high from a talent perspective, but hey, teams need pitching. Also of note was the No. 15 pick -- Dylan Lesko, who was the first junior to win Gatorade National Baseball Player of the Year in 2021, then underwent Tommy John surgery this April. The Padres, of course, were the team that drafted him. This is a quintessential A.J. Preller pick.
Schoenfield: I love what the Mets did, pouncing when Georgia Tech catcher Kevin Parada fell to them with the 11th pick and then taking tooled-up high school shortstop Jett Williams at 14. Let's just throw this out there, because it's fun and ridiculous and just enough of an idea that actually makes sense: With Parada, the Mets can now dangle Francisco Alvarez as the headliner in a Juan Soto trade. You know Mets owner Steve Cohen is thinking the same thing.
McDaniel: I was concerned that teams wouldn't take the three best players on my board at the right spots, and they went off in the top four picks. Almost nobody thought a pitcher belonged in the top 10 picks on talent, but that some teams would force it, and they did with Rocker, Horton and Hughes. The 10 SEC commits in the top 32 picks (if you count Reggie Crawford, who had committed to Tennessee through the transfer portal) struck me as a fascinating outward product of all the stadiums, crowds, facilities and prestige in the SEC. Lastly, this very deep group of college bats will be fun to watch as every scout you ask had a very different order for this diverse group.
Kiley McDaniel's best available players for Day 2
(Listed by top 300 draft prospects ranking)
24. Brock Porter, RHP, St. Mary's HS (Michigan)
44. Brady Neal, C, IMG Academy (Florida), LSU commit
51. Malcolm Moore, C, McClatchy HS (California), Stanford commit
58. Jonathan Cannon, RHP, Georgia
62. Gavin Turley, CF, Hamilton HS (Arizona), Oregon State commit
67. Jacob Zibin, RHP, TNXL Academy (Florida), South Carolina commit
68. Paxton Kling, CF, Central HS (Pennsylvania), LSU commit
69. Cameron Smith, 3B, Palm Beach Central HS (Florida)
73. Brandon Sproat, RHP, Florida
76. Dominic Keegan, C, Vanderbilt
77. Trey Lipscomb, 3B, Tennessee