Here we are at the final piece of my pre-draft process before the final mock drafts, ranking the top 300 players in this year's class. This, for my money, is the much more important aspect: how good I think the players actually are.
Until about a month ago, I was basically trying to put players in the order that the teams like them, then in the final month when I have all of that information, is when my opinion comes crashing through the wall like Kool-Aid Man to sum up a couple years of information and opinions.
Behind the scenes, I've updated my overall minor league top 100 rankings (here's the last public update) to make adjustments and take out the graduated players, so I can tell you where the top players in the draft would slot on that list the moment they sign. I've also included FV grades so you can see where those players would slot in your team's overall prospects rankings (AL and NL). I've also included tool grades for all of the players above a 40 FV, which is the cutoff I use for pretty common prospects (i.e., 40 FV or lower), while any player ranked above that has universal trade value and a real chance to be a good big leaguer.
Lastly, if you're a late-comer to this process: Welcome! The most notable part of this class is the huge number of sons of notable players who are projected for the top few rounds, including two of the top three players overall (most notably: the sons of Andruw Jones, Matt Holliday and Carl Crawford). The broader overview of this year's class is that the top three players have separated themselves and, beyond that, there are a lot of disagreement from scouts on the order of their lists. The college pitching class has been ravaged by injury and is one of the worst in recent memory, but there's a number of injured pitchers and prep pitchers with over-slot demands who will be littered all over the second and third rounds. I'll bet there's a couple really good players in that group. There's a lot of depth to the college hitter group that will dominate the first round, but not many players with a reasonable shot to be impact, All-Star level pros.
If I had to pinpoint some players deemed as tough signs for their talent, with a chance they won't sign and go/return to school next year, here's the leading candidates, in order of rank and all within the top 100: Cade Horton (Oklahoma), Noah Schultz (Vanderbilt), Malcolm Moore (Stanford), Paxton Kling (LSU), Cameron Smith (Florida State), Roman Anthony (Ole Miss), Sal Stewart (Vanderbilt), Robert Moore (Arkansas), Sam Horn (Missouri), Jaden Noot (LSU) and Xavier Isaac (Florida). Indiana prep RHP Andrew Dutkanych (Vanderbilt commit) has already taken his name out of the draft and will be going to school; he'd rank around 60th overall if still eligible. I'd expect a number of other players to do the same just before draft day.
55 FV Tier
1. Druw Jones (18.6), CF, Wesleyan HS (GA), Vanderbilt commit
24th on the Top 100
Hit: 30/60, Game Power: 25/55, Raw Power: 50/60, Speed: 70/70, Field: 60/70, Throw: 70/70
I included the tool grades here for the top tiers of players so you can see plainly how elite some of these players are, even comparing them to tool grades on the minor league top 100. Jones (son of Andruw) has a real shot to be plus or better at everything with some 70s tossed in that are already present. I'd say there is about a 10-15% chance he could be an Acuna- or Tatis-level talent, and I don't think anyone else in this draft has the upside to post multiple five-win seasons with the ridiculous tools to match. I think for that reason he has to be first, but he is not universally atop every scout's board.
Saw Druw Jones tonight (son of Andruw), my top prospect for the 2022 draft.
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) March 3, 2022
Hostile road crowd and faced 90-93 mph from Georgia State commit Brady Jones.
Amidst chants of "overrated" he hits a rocket dead central. Friend helped me with a side angle @espn @jones_druw pic.twitter.com/8huUGVhFUG
2. Termarr Johnson (18.0), 2B, Mays HS (GA), Arizona State commit
30th on the Top 100
Hit: 30/60, Game Power: 30/60, Raw Power: 60/60, Speed: 50/45, Field: 45/50, Throw: 50/50
Given the glowing report above on Jones, you may be wondering how Johnson could land just six spots behind him on the minor league Top 100. That's because, at the top of the draft, teams most want high school up-the-middle position players with a confidence they will hit and enough other tools to easily profile as regulars. These top three players do it and nobody else really does. Jones has the highest upside of the group, but Johnson projects to have the best hit/power combo also currently possesses the best hit/power combo. He has the least defensive value and the noisiest swing, but that's further down the list of musts considering he stands defensively in one of the right positions.
Let's keep things simple and focus on the positives: Johnson has the two traits that matter the most for a hitter. He reminds me of a Rafael Devers and Jose Ramirez type of player.
3. Jackson Holliday (18.6), SS, Stillwater HS (OK), Oklahoma State commit
36th on the Top 100
Hit: 25/55, Game Power: 25/55, Raw Power: 55/60, Speed: 60/55, Field: 45/50, Throw: 55/55
Holliday (son of Matt) was a mid-first-round prospect, a clear tier behind Jones and Johnson, when they were all at some of the same events last summer. He has made big strides since then, getting stronger and now projecting for above-average tools across the board. The tool grades are almost identical to Marcelo Mayer from last year's draft, but Mayer has smoother actions, a little more physical projection and a longer track record of top tier performance.
I saw my new 3rd prospect in the draft Stillwater HS (OK) shortstop Jackson Holliday last night. Had 3 walks, a homer (about 375 feet to CF), and a double. Here's the two hits, a slo-mo blast from double-barrel BP, and some infield work: pic.twitter.com/TtkWVrGxpu
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) April 27, 2022
50 FV Tier
4. Kevin Parada (20.9), C, Georgia Tech
77th on the Top 100
Hit: 35/50, Game Power: 40/55, Raw Power: 60/60, Speed: 40/40, Field: 40/50, Throw: 50/50
Now things get interesting and opinions start getting wacky from team to team. Parada was a hit-over-power prospect in high school and as a freshman at Georgia Tech, then came out this spring with at least one grade more raw power and a swing designed to tap into it. His swing decisions are still above average, but I wonder if he can perform comparably in the majors while subject to the rigors of catching and without the plus physical ability you'd prefer to see to make that projection.
5. Cam Collier (17.7), 3B, Chipola JC (FL), Louisville commit
94th on the Top 100
Hit: 30/55, Game Power: 25/55, Raw Power: 50/55, Speed: 45/45, Field: 45/50, Throw: 70/70
Collier (son of former big leaguer Lou) and Termarr Johnson are two of the best pure hitters to come out of the Atlanta area in recent memory, arguably better than C.J. Abrams in that regard. Collier was set to be in the 2023 draft class but reclassified and went to the top junior college in the country. He has performed well, facing 20-to-21-year-old pitchers. I believe he'll hit and play third -- and there's raw power to tap into -- but he's not quite as dynamic as the top three and hasn't played at the ACC level like Parada, so he's just behind those guys right now.
6. Brooks Lee (21.3), 3B, Cal Poly
99th on the Top 100
Hit: 30/55, Game Power: 30/50, Raw Power: 50/50, Speed: 50/45, Field: 45/50, Throw: 55/55
Lee was a fringe first-rounder out of high school but had a back issue that scared teams off from meeting his number. He has done nothing but hit and play shortstop effectively both for Cal Poly and in the summers, but every scout I've spoken with thinks he'll quickly slide over to third base in pro ball.
Lee also doesn't have the plus mobility/bat speed/raw power that you want to see at a top pick and he didn't play in an elite conference, but he's a slam-dunk everyday bat who gives you some defensive value.
7. Elijah Green (18.6), CF, IMG Academy HS (FL), Miami commit
118th on the (extended) Top 100
Hit: 25/50, Game Power: 35/65, Raw Power: 70/70, Speed: 70/70, Field: 50/55, Throw: 70/70
About 18 months ago, Green (son of NFL tight end Eric) was on a trajectory to become the top player in this draft, with raw tools on par with the Justin Upton type slam-dunk prospects who easily go first overall. In the past two springs and summers, he has faced excellent competition but has had worrying swing-and-miss rates. Everyone raves about his makeup and desire to adjust his swing and approach. He also took on a much bigger challenge than he needed by playing at IMG when he could've played typical high school competition. He has closed well ahead of the draft and made notable adjustments with results to match in the past month or two.
There has been movement among teams to take a safe pick in the top 10 picks, then take riskier types later, and Green is running into that trend at the wrong time. If he can roll through the minors with strikeout rates under 25%, his upside is right there with Druw Jones: it's very hard to think of players with 70 grades for power, speed and arm strength. If you have an appetite for risk/reward, this is your guy.
Saw IMG again yesterday and Elijah Green @elijahgreen1204 went deep in his first AB on an 88 mph fastball away pic.twitter.com/vBIEaBQoAf
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) March 25, 2022
8. Dylan Lesko (18.9), RHP, Buford HS (GA), Vanderbilt commit
120th on the (extended) Top 100
Velo: 94-96 t97, Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 70/80, Command: 40/55
In a feature on Brandon Barriera and the future of pitching, I pointed out the awful track record of the prep pitcher who gets the top bonus in a draft class. I think that Lesko will be the pitcher who gets a chance to buck that trend this year and before his Tommy John surgery this spring, it definitely would've been him. I would argue he's the best prep pitching product in years, maybe a decade. I also pointed out in my latest ranking of the big league aces, that half of those aces have had Tommy John surgery, leading me to believe that those destined for aceness aren't really slowed down by the procedure.
I still believe Lesko has the best shot to become a major league ace from the prep ranks in a long time; he has the best changeup I've ever seen below the big league level and looks like a Walker Buehler clone when he's not throwing that pitch. I've rounded down on his ranking due to the Tommy John surgery, but I'm just as enthusiastic that Lesko could be the dude you tell your kids about from this draft.
45+ FV Tier
9. Jacob Berry (21.1), RF, LSU
Hit: 35/55, Game Power: 40/55, Raw Power: 60/60, Speed: 45/40, Field: 40/45, Throw: 50/50
The worry on Berry is clear: He's a below-average athlete who is just OK in right field and at third base and might settle as a first baseman/designated hitter.
Now for the good: He has the best current hit/power/pitch selection combo in the whole draft and might even project to be top five in that regard when all is said and done. Everyone raves about his makeup, build and all the off-field stuff that comes up later in the draft process. He's another guy who won't elicit backflips in the draft room when you pick him, but you're getting a big leaguer, probably a solid one, and soon.
10. Gavin Cross (21.3), RF, Virginia Tech
Hit: 30/55, Game Power: 35/55, Raw Power: 60/60, Speed: 50/50, Field: 45/50, Throw: 50/50
Cross hit in the middle of a strong collegiate national team lineup last summer that also included Brooks Lee, Jacob Berry and Jace Jung. Cross has held serve in that top group of guys for the past 12 months. He's decent in center field, though likely settles in right long term. He has plus raw power and is a good hitter with a pretty swing and solid approach. Cross doesn't quite have the exciting talent you want to see from a top pick, but he looks to be one of the quicker movers among the college hitters.
11. Drew Gilbert (21.8), CF, Tennessee
Hit: 35/55, Game Power: 30/45, Raw Power: 50/50, Speed: 60/60, Field: 45/50, Throw: 60/60
The No. 1 player among my "so who do you like more than everyone else?" All-Stars for this draft is Gilbert, and the rest of that crew (Zach Neto, Jet Williams, Tucker Toman) are lined up right after him. Gilbert projects a whole lot like Brett Gardner or Adam Eaton; go check their career stats and see if you want that at this juncture in the draft.
Gilbert dramatically improved his exit velos, contact rates and swing decisions this year while playing in the best amateur league on Earth, the SEC. He's the heart and soul of the best college team I've ever seen, and I'd much rather have him a little overzealous with the trash talk than try to get a low-energy guy to act like he cares. This guy is going to be the first non-reliever to the big leagues in this draft, and I think he'll stay there for a decade.
I'm harping today on not focusing on what guys can't do, but also look at Gilbert and tell me something he can't do, other than be 6-foot-5. If I have to bet on one guy in this whole draft beating expectations (most people think he'll get drafted in the 20s), I'll happily push my chips to the middle for Gilbert.
12. Zach Neto (21.5), SS, Campbell
Hit: 35/55, Game Power: 30/45, Raw Power: 50/50, Speed: 60/60, Field: 50/55, Throw: 60/60
Neto's swing is almost hilarious to watch the first time you see it if you aren't prepared; there are elements of a classic softball swing. But it totally works for him, and he made a ton of contact on the Cape and in the spring. I think he'll have to tone it down a bit against upper minors pitching, but Neto already has deceptively good in-game exit velos, so he can stand to give some of that back. That he is a plus runner, is an above-average defender at short and has a plus arm also help ease that concern. It's a little funny to watch next to the NFL combine guys, but this guy is going to play in the TV league, and it won't just be as a defensive replacement.
45 FV Tier
13. Jace Jung (21.7), 2B, Texas Tech
Hit: 30/55, Game Power: 35/50, Raw Power: 60/60, Speed: 40/40, Field: 45/50, Throw: 50/50
Jung is similar to his brother, Rangers prospect Josh, in that, while at Texas Tech, they both had mature frames, untapped raw power, excellent stat lines and some questions about their defense. Jace is a lefty bat with a unique hand move that trades power for contact, and I think he's fringy but fine defensively at second and third base. Scouts might wonder if he'll age more quickly than other players in this area of the draft given his build, but he has been a guy who gets it done at every level, so I'll bet on that instead of trying to sell jeans.
14. Jett Williams (18.7), SS, Rockwall Heath HS (TX), Mississippi State commit
Hit: 30/55, Game Power: 25/45, Raw Power: 45/45, Speed: 60/60, Field: 40/50, Throw: 55/55
Jett Williams is fun as hell, just watch. He's short (5-foot-8 at most) but doesn't care. He swings for the fences almost every time and doesn't whiff much. He's not a slam-dunk shortstop, but he's getting to almost every ball and getting it over to first however he needs to do it. I think his draft stock will benefit from Anthony Volpe and some other similarly framed players who lift the ball with great success, but Williams also has very compact actions at the plate and in the field that help his natural bat control and arm strength play better at higher levels. The days of not drafting prep players because they're short have been over for awhile, it's time to get on board.
15. Tucker Toman (18.7), 3B, Hammond HS (SC), LSU commit
Hit: 25/50, Game Power: 30/60, Raw Power: 55/60, Speed: 45/45, Field: 45/50, Throw: 50/50
Toman is one of my picks to click in this draft and might go seven to 10 picks after I have him ranked. I'm totally sold on his plus makeup and that he'll stick at third base. I'm also solid on his plus power and switch-hitting ability that will produce above-average offense of some sort. I felt similarly about Nolan Gorman and Austin Riley at the same stage, and they're all similar types of players. (Sound of the table being pounded)
16. Brandon Barriera (18.3), LHP, American Heritage HS (FL), Vanderbilt commit
Velo: 93-96 t98, Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 55/60, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 40/50
Barriera has a unique story in that he basically followed a path more associated with college running backs by opting out of the end of his season to prepare to the draft. He flashes three plus pitches pretty often and has the components to stay a starter, along with a track record of being at the top of this class all the way back to his freshman year in high school. I'm still hesitating because prep pitchers as a group scare me, but Barriera is the best of the bunch who is currently healthy.
17. Connor Prielipp (21.4), LHP, Alabama
Velo: 92-94 t97, Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 55/65, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/50
Prielipp was a decent prep prospect who exploded once he got to Tuscaloosa and was quickly tracking like a top-10 pick. The pandemic and a Tommy John surgery that he just returned from derailed that momentum, though. Below is video from his first workout for teams, then he was even better at the MLB combine, showing mid-90s heat and a plus-plus slider. Some teams around this area think they're getting a deal on a top-five overall talent, while others just don't have enough track record to take him ahead of the next player on the list.
Alabama LHP Connor Prielipp threw a bullpen for scouts yesterday. Worked 91-93 t94, SL flashed +, CH was avg. Pitched thru the rain (see last clip), worked fast, under control. Friday is 1 yr TJ anniv. Pre-injury sat mid-90's, flashed ++ SL that may be coming as he stretches out. pic.twitter.com/hXsxoM2c16
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) May 24, 2022
18. Cooper Hjerpe (21.2), LHP, Oregon State
Velo: 90-93 t95, Fastball: 50/55, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/55
If you want every draft prospect compared to a big league star, I'm not your draft analyst. But every half dozen or so first-round picks, I'll let you know that a prospect kind of looks like this big league star if you squint and things play out well. Hjerpe looks like Chris Sale if you squint.
Teams now better understand why this fastball shape and arm slot work, and he's above average at basically everything he does, along with a sparkling stat line this year. I don't think he'll have any trouble in the lower minors and might just waltz his way into a big league rotation, but he's at least a really useful utility arm who can do anything you need.
19. Cole Young (18.9), SS, North Allegheny HS (PA), Duke commit
Hit: 30/55, Game Power: 20/45, Raw Power: 50/50, Speed: 60/60, Field: 45/50, Throw: 60/60
Young has a long track record of hitting, and a wide base of skills as the sort of player (safe, up-the-middle prep position player) that a lot of teams are looking for. The fact that he is about to turn 19 and I'm not doing a backflip about any one of his tools is why he isn't ranked higher, but he should still be picked around here and could easily be a solid everyday player.
20. Spencer Jones (21.1), RF, Vanderbilt
Hit: 30/45, Game Power: 35/60, Raw Power: 65/70, Speed: 50/50, Field: 45/50, Throw: 55/55
I wrote earlier this week about how similar Jones is to Aaron Judge at the same stage. If you believe that set of facts (I mostly do), then he moves to the top of this tier of college bats. It's still very unlikely he's actually as good as Aaron Judge (like a 5-10% chance if I had to put a number on it) and if it doesn't work, it'll be because Jones has a strike zone the size of a fireplace and might just be another guy who never fully gets to his power in games because of that and the length of his arms.
21. Justin Crawford (18.5), CF, Bishop Gorman HS (NV), LSU commit
Hit: 25/55, Game Power: 25/45, Raw Power: 45/55, Speed: 80/80, Field: 50/60, Throw: 45/45
The son of Carl has elite physical tools with good power projection and solid defensive chops. He was uneven as a hitter last summer but made strides starting in the fall and continuing this spring. The question is how much of his power projection shows up in games and exactly how good of a hitter he'll become, but he'll be electrifying no matter what.
22. Cade Horton (20.9), RHP, Oklahoma
Velo: 93-96 t98, Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 55/65, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/55
Horton was about 50 slots below this ranking at the end of the regular season -- then he went on a tear, dominating the whole postseason. He's ranked this high even post Tommy John because of how he looks when he does it (i.e., he looks like a starter), and he was exactly this kind of guy on the mound in high school. I think he'll want top half of the first round money because he might get that next year with a full dominating season, which means he might go anywhere from getting a slot bonus in the middle of the first, to overslot in the comp round, to getting $3 million after the third round, to not drafted at all.
23. Daniel Susac (21.0), C, Arizona
Hit: 30/50, Game Power: 30/50, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 40/40, Field: 45/50, Throw: 60/60
Susac is a big, talented prospect with good raw power, deceptively good defensive skills and shockingly good contact metrics. I'm worried those traits might decline due to his size and position, while his bat speed and chase rates aren't the type I like to bet on with an early pick. Teams with slightly different priorities will look more at the positive and have him about 10 slots higher than I do.
24. Brock Porter (19.0), RHP, St. Mary's HS (MI), Clemson commit
Velo: 94-96 t99, Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 55/60, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 40/50
Porter sometimes looks like a top-10 overall pick with three plus pitches and solid strike throwing. He has made strides since the summer at addressing some of the things (fastball shape, below-average curveball and no slider) that I didn't like at that point. This demographic (arm-speed-reliant prep righties) still terrifies me, so I have him lower than he'll probably go, but there's frontline upside here, so a team could really hit it big.
25. Jordan Beck (21.1), RF, Tennessee
Hit: 30/45, Game Power: 35/55, Raw Power: 65/65, Speed: 55/50, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55
Beck has a good swing, feel for the bat head, potential 30-homer raw power and tools to maybe even play center field. I have him down here because of poor contact rates driven by poor pitch selection. I think he'll be picked by pick 25 and the upside is huge, but that specific worry is one of the most worrying ones I can have.
26. Jacob Melton (21.8), CF, Oregon State
Hit: 30/45, Game Power: 35/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 60/60, Field: 45/50, Throw: 55/55
Scouts don't love what Melton does with his hands in his swing, but it works for now -- and he rakes. He's also a center fielder with real raw power. You might prefer a perfect swing and SEC performance, but you aren't getting that and what Melton has at this point in the draft, so he's got a lot of support in the late 20s.
27. Owen Murphy (18.8), RHP, Riverside Brookfield HS (IL), Notre Dame commit
Velo: 92-94 t96, Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 40/55
Murphy has a ton of markers to project improvement: plus athlete, cold weather kid with limited reps, two-way prospect, naturally data-friendly raw stuff, beautiful delivery, good strike thrower, above-average raw stuff to the eye. He's still a prep righty and he's a bit green, so you have to hold your breath but this is a special, Jack Flaherty-level package of traits you don't see that often.
28. Eric Brown (21.5), SS, Coastal Carolina
Hit: 30/55, Game Power: 25/45, Raw Power: 50/50, Speed: 50/50, Field: 40/50, Throw: 55/55
Brown is unique in being a first-round talent who needs a complete swing overhaul in pro ball. He does something with his hands that reminds me of a Samurai, but has hit everywhere and has deceptively good in-game power, in addition to fitting at one or both middle-infield positions. Clubs with good hitting development are lining up around this point of the draft.
29. Jacob Miller (18.9), RHP, Liberty Union HS (OH), Louisville commit
Velo: 94-96 t97, Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 55/60 Curveball: 50/55 Changeup: 50/60 Command: 40/55
Miller is still a stuff-over-command prep righty, which makes him the riskiest subset of pitcher, but he got a lot better this spring, highlighted by a couple outings that had scouts raving. He has shown four plus pitches and above-average command, but the shape of his fastball wouldn't miss as many bats if he was throwing it 90-93 mph, so there's some risk with that considerable upside.
30. Gabriel Hughes (20.9), RHP, Gonzaga
Velo: 93-96 t97, Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 40/50
Hughes has been a college standout with solid performance and above-average-to-plus stuff for a couple years. He didn't finish that strong in his last few starts this season, but some teams loved what they saw just before that and are considering him the top college arm in the class.
31. Chase DeLauter (20.7), RF, James Madison
Hit: 30/50, Game Power: 30/55, Raw Power: 60/65, Speed: 50/50, Field: 45/50, Throw: 50/50
DeLauter was a scout and draft model favorite after a huge coming out party on the Cape last summer. This spring was a disaster with inconsistent swing mechanics and less bat speed while facing mostly weak competition and having poor performances when he did face good competition -- and a couple injuries on top of that. The upside is enticing, but there are also shades of Kameron Misner and Brad Zimmer, so he makes sense for most clubs in this range of the draft.
32. Robby Snelling (18.5), LHP, McQueen HS (NV), LSU commit
Velo: 90-93 t95, Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 35/50, Command: 40/50
Scouts who love Snelling think of him as equivalent to a mid-major college pitcher due to his mature frame and excellent strike-throwing ability. I didn't like him much last summer, but he has made huge strides since then and could move quickly relative to other prep pitchers.
33. Peyton Graham (21.4), SS, Oklahoma
Hit: 30/45, Game Power: 30/55, Raw Power: 60/60, Speed: 60/60, Field: 45/50, Throw: 60/60
Graham has tools reminiscent of White Sox SS Tim Anderson, even if he's not quite as fluid physically. Like Anderson, Graham also swings a little too much, but Graham's contact rates spiked late in the year when he made a swing adjustment to keep his head more still. He's another big boom/bust prospect in this class.
34. Noah Schultz (18.9), LHP, Oswego East HS (IL), Vanderbilt commit
Velo: 91-94 t96, Fastball: 50/60, Slider: 55/60, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 40/50
Schultz was good last summer, then missed a couple months to start the spring because illness. He came out showing plus stuff at 6-foot-8 with an unusual, low arm slot. His command was bad early then solid in a college summer league. Rumors are his asking price for a bonus is at least $3 million and maybe $4 million, so there's a real shot he ends up at Vanderbilt, where he would miss being sophomore-eligible by days.
35. Dylan Beavers (20.9), RF, Cal
Hit: 30/45, Game Power: 30/55, Raw Power: 60/65, Speed: 55/50, Field: 45/50, Throw: 55/55
Beavers is a late-bloomer who is new to the national stage and is also young for the class. He also has huge power and might be able to play center field. He has a unique, divisive hand pump in his swing and, after a hot start, finished not as well, so teams are split about what to do with him.
Cal RF Dylan Beavers was a fun eval Fri/Sat at FSU.
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) March 8, 2022
First 3 clips you see the stiffer/upright lower 1/2 and big hand move, occ. arm bar causing problems w/timing & up/in
After that, he adjusted and hit well, including a HR off of Hubbart on a FB up/in: https://t.co/I7zrniKXak pic.twitter.com/saOLqAckDq
36. Sterlin Thompson (21.0), RF, Florida
Hit: 30/50, Game Power: 30/55, Raw Power: 55/60, Speed: 45/45, Field: 40/50, Throw: 50/50
Thompson was a late-rising prep prospect in 2020 who probably would've had his price met if the season went a month longer. He has been solid at Florida with a pretty swing and power projection, but it's unclear to me if he's just often sitting fastball or has trouble seeing spin.
Thompson is also playable at second base, so he has some vibes like Dodgers prospect Michael Busch.
37. Peyton Pallette (21.1), RHP, Arkansas
Velo: 93-96 t98, Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 60/65, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/50
Like Dylan Lesko, Pallette looks a lot like Walker Buehler as a slim-framed righty with high-octane plus stuff of the higher-slot, higher-spin, fastball-curveball, attack-at-all-times variety. He had preseason Tommy John surgery and didn't pitch last summer, so teams with strong underclass scouting operations figure to be more likely to draft him.
38. Justin Campbell (21.3), RHP, Oklahoma State
Velo: 90-93 t96, Fastball: 45/50, Curveball: 45/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/55
Campbell is another college pitcher with underwhelming raw stuff but premium ingredients (i.e., physical ability, command and three solid pitches) for the Cleveland style of pitching development where stuff can often be improved quickly.
39. Jake Bennett (21.5), LHP, Oklahoma
Velo: 90-94 t96, Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 50/50, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 45/50
Bennett has the look of a big leaguer, though the role is still in question. His changeup is his best pitch, and he could stand to throw it more, which might dictate if he's ultimately more No. 3-4 starter or eighth-inning reliever.
40. Carson Whisenhunt (21.7), LHP, East Carolina
Velo: 92-94 t97, Fastball: 50/55, Curveball: 45/55, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 40/50
He was trending up after a strong postseason in 2021 alongside Gavin Williams and a sparkling preseason outing for a number of scouting directors (when he had mid-first round buzz), but was suspended for the season due to a PED test. He's been solid on the Cape of late but comes with more unknowns than other college arms in this area.
41. Jackson Ferris (18.4), LHP, IMG Academy HS (FL), Ole Miss commit
Velo: 92-94 t96, Fastball: 50/55, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/55
Ferris was right there with Dylan Lesko and Brandon Barriera pacing a historic group of prep arms entering the summer, but some other arms showed plus stuff more often over the past year. Ferris still shows above-average ability at almost every aspect of pitching and could be a delivery tweak away from being a top-10-to-15 player in this draft class.
42. Cayden Wallace (20.9), 3B, Arkansas
Hit: 30/45, Game Power: 30/55, Raw Power: 60/60, Speed: 50/45, Field: 45/50, Throw: 60/60
Wallace was right there with Parada as two of the top unsigned players from the pandemic-shortened 2020 draft class who were set to be sophomore eligible. Wallace seems like he can hit for power or contact but maybe not both, while his defensive chops aren't in question.
43. Thomas Harrington (21.0), RHP, Campbell
Velo: 91-94 t96, Fastball: 45/55, Slider: 50/55, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/55
Harrington is the favorite in this draft of some pitching development types. I saw him strike out two different players with each of his four pitches this spring, perfectly showing his wide base of above-average traits.
44. Brady Neal (17.8), C, IMG Academy HS (FL), LSU commit
Hit: 25/50, Game Power: 20/45, Raw Power: 50/55, Speed: 55/50, Field: 45/50, Throw: 55/55
Neal joins Cam Collier and Walter Ford as reclassifying from the 2023 class and projecting to go early. Neal is a Dodgers-style hit-first backstop who could play other positions and has time to tap into his raw power more in games.
45. Max Wagner (20.9), 3B, Clemson
Hit: 30/55, Game Power: 30/45, Raw Power: 45/50, Speed: 50/50, Field: 45/50, Throw: 50/50
I literally didn't know Wagner's name in March despite living a few hours away from Clemson, while scouts were turning him in as a fifth- or sixth-rounder. He went on a tear for the ages in the second half and has markers for continued growth (Wisconsin-born as Northern prospects tend to develop later, young for the class, hit-first profile), along with the chops to play a decent second base, but the upside is limited by his fringy power.
46. Dalton Rushing (21.3), C, Louisville
Hit: 30/45, Game Power: 35/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 30/30, Field: 40/50, Throw: 55/55
With robo umps likely on the way to MLB, Rushing is good enough defensively to leave him back there. He's power over hit at the plate with a decent approach, giving you shades of Yankees prospect Austin Wells in a more compact package.
47. Henry Bolte (18.9), CF, Palo Alto HS (CA), Texas commit
Hit: 25/45, Game Power: 25/55, Raw Power: 65/70, Speed: 60/55, Field: 40/50, Throw: 50/50
On the right day, you might write down "George Springer" in your notes while watching Bolte, but he's also a shorter-track-record prep hitter with some swing-and-miss concerns, so you're getting a full scoop of risk with your bowl full of upside.
40+ FV Tier
48. Jud Fabian (21.8), CF, Florida
Hit: 30/45, Game Power: 30/55, Raw Power: 65/65, Speed: 55/55, Field: 50/55, Throw: 50/50
I've waffled on Fabian for years. He has 30-homer raw power and above-average defensive skills in center, with flashes of good swing decisions but also long streaks of "what was he thinking?" I've given up trying to figure him out, but the tools are here to make me look silly for ranking him this low.
49. J.R. Ritchie (19.0), RHP, Bainbridge HS (WA), UCLA commit
Velo: 91-94 t96, Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 45/55
Ritchie is silky smooth projection case who has flashed three plus pitches at various times and he has the physical skills to start -- but his raw stuff is often very average by the third inning and he hasn't yet decided what type of pitcher he's going to be on the mound.
50. Landon Sims (21.5), RHP, Mississippi State
Velo: 92-95 t98, Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 55/65, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 40/50
He had Tommy John surgery this spring after trying to see if his Craig Kimbrel impression would work as a starter. He has a lot of suitors starting around the 30th pick and might be first to the big leagues in this draft class if he's fast tracked once he gets back on the mound.
51. Malcolm Moore (18.9), C, McClatchy HS (CA), Stanford commit
Hit: 25/50, Game Power: 30/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 45/45, Field: 40/50, Throw: 50/50
His Stanford commitment makes him a tough sign, but there are some similar elements to Kevin Parada at the same stage and a handful of teams are thinking about paying up to sign him.
52. Blade Tidwell (21.0), RHP, Tennessee
Velo: 94-96 t98, Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 55/60, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50
Tidwell popped up late in 2020 as a high schooler during the pandemic-shortened season, hitting the upper 90s. He had a solid freshman year but came out late this season because of shoulder soreness. He looked like a top-15 pick in one outing this spring (at Florida) but mostly a late-first to compensation-round pick otherwise because of his reliever risk.
53. Cade Doughty (21.2), 3B, LSU
Hit: 30/50, Game Power: 30/45, Raw Power: 50/50, Speed: 50/50, Field: 45/50, Throw: 55/55
He flies under the radar because of average-ish tools and sharing a lineup with Dylan Crews (who is in the mix for No. 1 overall next summer) and Jacob Berry, but Doughty can hit, has some pop and can play almost anywhere defensively.
54. Kumar Rocker (22.6), RHP, Tri-City (Independent)
Velo: 93-96 t98, Fastball: 55/60, Cutter: 55/60, Slider: 55/60, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/50
The most famous player in the draft for the second year in a row had shoulder surgery after not signing with the Mets last summer and now is back up to 98 mph while pitching in Indy ball. Now there are more concerns that he ends up a reliever than last year, but he'll show three plus pitches so he might get to the big leagues quickly.
55. Walter Ford (17.5), RHP, Pace HS (FL), Alabama commit
Velo: 92-95 t97, Fastball: 50/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 35/50, Command: 35/50
The self-proclaimed "Vanilla Missile" (no joke: he has merch available) reclassified from the 2023 class and flashes two plus pitches, but the quality of strikes and consistency of his stuff will vary.
56. Mikey Romero (18.5), SS, Orange Lutheran HS (CA), LSU commit
Hit: 25/55, Game Power: 20/45, Raw Power: 45/50, Speed: 50/50, Field: 45/50, Throw: 50/50
He can hit and play up the middle, coming with a track record of contact, but his arm has been inconsistent and his swing isn't geared to tap into his power right now.
57. Brock Jones (21.2), CF, Stanford
Hit: 30/45, Game Power: 30/50, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 60/55, Field: 45/50, Throw: 45/45
He was solid last summer for Team USA, hitting with Brooks Lee, Jacob Berry, Gavin Cross and Jace Jung -- then Jones came out the gates terribly this spring. He closed much better and has tools, but teams are wary.
58. Jonathan Cannon (22.0), RHP, Georgia
Velo: 92-96 t97, Fastball: 50/55, Cutter: 55/60, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 40/50
His asking price wasn't met around this area last year, then he added a new plus cutter this spring that could get him into the compensation round.
59. Jake Misiorowski (20.2), RHP, Crowder JC (MO), LSU commit
Velo: 97-99 t101, Fastball: 70/80, Slider: 60/70, Command: 35/45
Misiorowski is a projection arm who exploded this year, sitting in the upper 90s with 20 command early this spring, then he started throwing strikes, and some scouts hung a perfect 80 grade on his slider. He's almost certainly a reliever, but the pieces here are among the best in the draft.
60. Drew Thorpe (21.8), RHP, Cal Poly
Velo: 90-94 t96, Fastball: 45/50, Slider: 45/50, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 40/50
Thorpe is a strong performer who will sometimes get away from his fastball enough that he works at 87-90 mph, but other times he will show 92-94 mph. The changeup and feel are always there.
61. Hunter Barco (21.5), LHP, Florida
Velo: 90-94 t96, Fastball: 45/50, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 45/50
Barco looked ticketed for picks 25-35 until his velocity slipped and eventually he had Tommy John surgery this spring.
62. Gavin Turley (18.7), CF, Hamilton HS (AZ), Oregon State commit
Hit: 20/45, Game Power: 30/55, Raw Power: 60/65, Speed: 60/60, Field: 45/50, Throw: 60/60
The fastest hands in the draft also come with some contact concerns because he also has the noisiest swing in the draft.
63. Reggie Crawford (21.6), LHP, UConn
Velo: 95-98 t100, Fastball: 65/70, Slider: 50/60, Command: 35/50
Crawford starred last summer for Team USA then had Tommy John surgery before the season. There's relief risk, but the components here are so good he could still go as high as the comp round or in the third- or fourth-round for a well-over-slot bonus.
64. Tyler Locklear (21.6), 3B, VCU
Hit: 30/45, Game Power: 35/60, Raw Power: 65/65, Speed: 45/45, Field: 40/45, Throw: 50/50
Locklear is a mid-major power bat who might slide over to first base and has huge power/exit velos and a solid eye at the plate.
65. Parker Messick (21.7), LHP, Florida State
Velo: 89-93 t95, Fastball: 45/50, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/55
He's not going to be on the cover of any fashion magazines, but Messick can pitch, is fiery and has gotten better every year. He's making the big leagues, but I'm not positive it'll be as a starter.
66. Cole Phillips (19.1), RHP, Boerne HS (TX), Arkansas commit
Velo: 94-97 t99, Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 40/50
Phillips had Tommy John surgery this spring but looked to be going around picks 25-40 before that. He has elite arm talent and makeup. Phillips would be sophomore eligible in Fayetteville because of his age, and the Razorbacks know how to develop arms, so there's no wrong decision here.