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MLB April All-Stars: Separating MVP candidates, breakout players and early flukes

Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

The season didn't begin until April 7, so it's a shorter than normal April -- but it's never too early to dig into some of the numbers. Let's pick our April All-Stars for each league and see how many of those players off to hot starts this month might still be under All-Star consideration come July.

American League

Catcher: Salvador Perez, Royals

Perez's transformation from free-swinging hacker with moderate power to free-swinging hacker with enormous power has been one of the unlikeliest developments of the past couple of seasons. It's really quite amazing to watch: He just goes up there and takes the biggest, hardest swing you can imagine, swings at almost everything and when he connects ... boom.

He tied for the AL lead with 48 home runs in 2021, and according to a quirky Statcast measurement that projects the same home runs to other parks, he would have hit 60 for the White Sox, Mets or Reds. Given that he DHs when he's not catching, he's a threat to once again lead the league in home runs.

Legit All-Star? He's already a seven-time All-Star and six-time starter. Yasmani Grandal and Mike Zunino, who had strong offensive seasons in 2021, are both struggling, so Perez is pretty much a lock to start again.

First base: Ty France, Mariners

Yes, I hear you, Yankees fans. Anthony Rizzo leads the majors in home runs after his three-homer outburst on Tuesday, so this is a close call indeed since France and Rizzo were tied in WAR after Tuesday's action. France is on his own hot streak, however, with 19 RBIs over his past 13 games. If you're surprised by his start, you shouldn't be. This guy has always hit, including a .399 average for Triple-A El Paso in 2019. The Mariners stole him from the Padres and he hit .291 last season, posting a .321 mark in the second half.

Legit All-Star? Well, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is going to be the starter, but with Matt Olson now over in the National League, the backup spot is wide open. I like France's odds and given that he leads the majors in batting average since last year's All-Star break, he's a legit contender for the batting title.

Second base: DJ LeMahieu, Yankees

He's started games at second, third and first, but with Marcus Semien and Brandon Lowe both hitting under .200, he's the only AL second baseman off to a good start at the plate. After hitting .336 with power across 2019 and 2020, LeMahieu fell off to .268 with just 10 home runs last season. The big change so far: He's been more aggressive in his swing rates, both on first pitches and overall. That's led to more swing and misses, but also harder contact.

Legit All-Star? Sure, this guy was a top five MVP candidate in 2019 and 2020. While I expect Semien and Lowe to eventually find their strokes, LeMahieu appears to be making the adjustments to get him back to a fourth All-Star Game.

Third base: Jose Ramirez, Guardians

New contract, same awesome production. Due to a better than normal -- for him -- line-drive rate, he's hitting over .300, which he hasn't done since 2017.

Legit All-Star? Try legit MVP candidate -- as usual. He has four top-six finishes since 2017, including sixth last season.

Shortstop: Wander Franco, Rays

The numbers speak for themselves, but the Statcast metrics back up the early results: 84th percentile in hard-hit rate, 99th percentile in expected batting average, 99th percentile in strikeout rate.

Maybe the most impressive aspect is he's also been outstanding defensively, including one memorable running grab of a popup down the left-field line. If we're going to nitpick, the chase rate is a little high at the plate and he doesn't walk, but remember: He still has less than 100 games playing in the big leagues.

Legit All-Star? Absolutely. J.P. Crawford has been outstanding for the Mariners and this loaded position includes Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Corey Seager, Tim Anderson and Bo Bichette, but I expect Franco to be at Dodger Stadium in July for what should be the first of many All-Star appearances.

Outfield: Mike Trout, Angels

Stay healthy, big guy.

Legit All-Star? Well, Buster Olney predicted 60 home runs from Trout. That pace will land him his 10th All-Star bid.

Outfield: Byron Buxton, Twins

The most impressive home run I've seen so far was Buxton turning on a 100.5-mph fastball up in the zone from Mariners reliever Andres Munoz and crushing it into the third deck at Target Field (somehow estimated at just 436 feet). The second most impressive homer might have been Buxton's walk-off on Sunday off Liam Hendriks of the White Sox, an absurd 469-foot blast off a 96-mph fastball. In less than half a season's worth of games over the past two seasons, he's hit .313/.366/.688 with 25 home runs and Gold Glove-level defense.

Legit All-Star? Yes and normally I'd say put him in the Home Run Derby ... but let's just get him into the game. He missed six of the Twins' first 16 games, so it's all about staying on the field.

Outfield: Steven Kwan, Guardians

The rookie was the story of the first week of the season after he hit .692 in a four-game series against the Royals, including a 5-for-5 performance. He's slowed since but still began the week second to Trout in wRC+ among qualified AL outfielders. The plate discipline and contact ability are top shelf, although a lack of power limits his offensive upside. Still, he projects as a classic old-school leadoff hitter as a player who can hit around .300 with a high OBP.

Legit All-Star? It's not a reach, but I wouldn't bet on it, especially since the Guardians will have other strong All-Star candidates in Ramirez and Shane Bieber.

Designated hitter: Shohei Ohtani, Angels

OK, he's not exactly smacking the cover off the ball like he did 46 times last summer ... but neither are any other AL DHs. Yordan Alvarez, Giancarlo Stanton and Franmil Reyes are all under .200. And none of those guys have fanned 26 batters in 14⅓ innings.

Legit All-Star? Of course. Here's a question: How bad would Ohtani have to be to not make the All-Star team? He's the reason we have an All-Star Game. It's probably a moot question since the fans will almost certainly vote him in as a starter.

Starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays

I originally was going to go with Rays sophomore lefty Shane McClanahan here, but after watching Gausman carve up the Red Sox on Tuesday, he gets the nod. It's hard to ignore a 31-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has also yet to allow a home run as his split-finger is once again unhittable -- he allowed a .133 average with it last season and .125 so far in 2022. The Blue Jays' decision to sign Gausman and let Cy Young winner Robbie Ray walk in free agency looks like a pretty nice exchange right now.

Legit All-Star? Absolutely. If anything, he looks even better than he did last year for the Giants, although we should note he also had a spectacular first half in 2021 when he earned his first All-Star selection before tiring in the second half (4.42 ERA).

Relief pitcher: Michael King, Yankees

Most relievers haven't thrown many innings yet, but King is stepping up as a dominant multi-inning weapon with a 44% strikeout rate early on. He always produced as a starter in the minors, but the knock against him was lack of velocity. Well, that has crept up to 96 in relief and he has maintained his plus command. The Yankees may be tempted to start him if he keeps pitching like this, but I'd keep him in that valuable multi-inning role.

Legit All-Star? It's tough for a non-closer to make the All-Star team, but King is definitely legit and with the likes of Clay Holmes and Lucas Luetge to go with Chad Green, Jonathan Loaisiga and Aroldis Chapman, the Yankees appear to have one of the deepest pens in the majors.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Catcher: J.T. Realmuto, Phillies

There's no clear leader here, but Realmuto is hitting around .300 with his usual excellent defense, giving him the edge over Willson Contreras of the Cubs and up-and-coming Tyler Stephenson of the Reds.

Sadly, Yadier Molina is struggling to get any offense going -- no runs, no RBIs, no extra-base hits in his first 10 games --so normally it would seem his chances of making an All-Star appearance in his final season would come down to the fan vote. This year, however, a new rule gives the commissioner the ability to add a 33rd player to each league's All-Star roster "in recognition of each player's career achievements" and could add more than one player "if special circumstances warrant."

Legit All-Star? Sure. Realmuto started last year's contest and has made the past three All-Star teams.

First base: Matt Olson, Braves ... and Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (tie)

Yeah, I can't decide. Both are off to great starts with Olson racking up doubles and walks and Freeman showing his usual all-around brilliance at the plate. It wouldn't be surprising to see both in the MVP discussion at season's end.

And yes, Eric Hosmer is hitting over .400. No, I don't think that .469 BABIP will last.

Legit All-Stars? Yep.

Second base: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Marlins

How can you not go for the guy with the ice cream accented glove? And that glove warrants special mention, because he's a Gold Glove contender in the field and -- so far -- his offense is looking improved over his rookie season with good power numbers and less chasing on pitches outside the zone. He was electrifying but inconsistent as a rookie, and if he can put it all together, Chisholm has a chance to be one of the most exciting stars in the game.

Legit All-Star? I'm not quite ready to go there yet. The strikeout rate is still high and he started off hot last season as well, so let's see if he can maintain his approach and cut down on the whiffs. Plus, second base in the NL is pretty deep with perennial All-Star Ozzie Albies, 2021 Rookie of the Year Jonathan India and good starts from the likes of Tommy Edman, Jeff McNeil and Gavin Lux.

Third base: Manny Machado, Padres

This is basically a coin flip between Machado and Nolan Arenado, who ranked 1-2 among NL position players in both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs WAR entering Tuesday's games. And Austin Riley isn't far behind as he proves last year's breakout was for real. I'm going with Machado, as Arenado's two-out throwing error in the ninth inning of Monday's game against the Mets cost the Cardinals a win.

Legit All-Star? Yes. Hard to believe this is already Machado's fourth season with the Padres. He's been a little up and down with the Padres -- OK in 2019 (2.6 WAR), great in the COVID season (third in the MVP voting) and an All-Star in 2021 (5.0 WAR). Early on, he's on pace for his best season since back-to-back 7-WAR campaigns with the Orioles in 2015 and 2016.

Shortstop: Francisco Lindor, Mets

Now this is the player we expected to see last season. With Fernando Tatis Jr. injured, Corey Seager in the AL and Trea Turner and Brandon Crawford off to so-so starts, Lindor's strong three weeks -- including a two-homer game in the Mets' home opener -- makes him our April All-Star.

Legit All-Star? Sure, although he didn't play at an All-Star level in 2020 or 2021, leading many to fear that he was in decline even though he's still just 28.

Outfield: Seiya Suzuki, Cubs

He's the first outfield name here and deservedly so after an impressive start to his major league career. He's hitting for average, power and drawing a lot of walks. It's an impressive offensive package, just like he showed in Japan. The plate discipline has stood out as he ranks in the 98th percentile in chase rate, helping him produce one of the best barrel rates in the league so far. Despite excellent speed, the defense has been underwhelming in right field -- the only apparent weakness in his game.

Legit All-Star? I'll say yes, although he's riding an unsustainable .448 BABIP. He mashed in Japan and has adapted quickly to the velocity here. I don't see this as a Kosuke Fukudome situation. You may remember the Cubs signed him in 2008 and he started the All-Star Game that summer despite so-so numbers. He was a nice player, but Suzuki has star potential.

Outfield: Joc Pederson, Giants

Despite serving as a platoon player, he's put up some of the best numbers in the NL, slotting in as the Giants' cleanup hitter against right-handers. Pederson has gone on these kinds of benders before, so let's see if he can keep it going. Either way, he's looking like a free-agent bargain at $6 million.

Legit All-Star? Not really, although he did make the All-Star team as a rookie in 2015 and he's been a staple in the Home Run Derby. But he's a platoon guy with a 90 OPS+ over 2020-21. Then again, it seems every veteran the Giants have brought in the past few seasons has improved.

Outfield: Jesus Sanchez, Marlins

Flip a coin here: Sanchez, Brandon Nimmo, Nick Castellanos. Heck, Kyle Schwarber deserves consideration just for that All-Star-level outburst against Angel Hernandez. But let's highlight a young hitter in Sanchez, in his first full season with the Marlins. He's from the Javier Baez school -- swing hard and swing often. OK, he's not quite as undisciplined as Baez, but you get the idea: this man does not go up there looking for walks. We'll see how that plays out in the long run.

Legit All-Star? Not really. He can hit, but the lack of walks will limit his OBP and he's been playing center field for the Marlins where he's not good despite above-average speed, so the defense will hold down his overall value.

Designated hitter: Connor Joe, Rockies

Joe was originally drafted by the Pirates, traded to the Braves and then the Dodgers. He was selected by the Reds in the Rule 5 draft and then traded to the Giants, only to be returned to the Dodgers and then signed by the Rockies as a free agent before the 2021 season. Got all that? He is 29 years old and getting his first shot at full-time play. He's played some left field, some right field and some first base, but most of his starts have come at DH. He had a 118 OPS+ in 211 plate appearances and the one reason for optimism is he has very good contact skills.

Legit All-Star? Probably not, but you never know what kind of numbers a good contact hitter can put up in Coors Field. The plate discipline is a plus and while the exit velocity is below average, he could hit .300 with 20 to 25 home runs ... and not a lot of players are going to hit .300 in 2022.

Starting pitcher: Max Scherzer, Mets

Considering he went five innings in his first spring training outing, you knew Scherzer was locked in for a strong start to 2022. He's allowed five runs through his first four starts with 33 K's and just one home run in 25 innings -- and just three hits allowed in 14 innings over his past two outings. He's been in the top five of the Cy Young voting every season since 2013 except during COVID, so while the NL Cy Young race promises to be a crowded affair, Scherzer is the one pitcher who is there every year -- and it doesn't look like he's slowing down.

Legit All-Star? Legit Hall of Famer.

Relief pitcher: Keegan Thompson, Cubs

He's started the season with 13⅔ scoreless innings, pitching at least 2⅔ innings in each of his four outings and picking up two wins. His fastball is rather pedestrian -- for a reliever -- at 93.5 mph, but it's a high-spin fastball and he mixes it well with a cutter and curveball and he's showing much improved control from 2021, when he walked 5⅔ batters per nine.

Legit All-Star? Well, you know ... good relievers can come out of nowhere. The Cubs intend to keep him in relief for now, but if he keeps throwing up zeroes the temptation to try him again in the rotation will be difficult to resist.