The first lesson of MLB's opening weekend: Don't overreact.
The second lesson of opening weekend: If you don't overreact, you have no soul.
And the third lesson: We're all going to be watching a lot of Blue Jays baseball in 2022.
In their home opener, the Jays were down seven runs to the Rangers but rallied to win 10-8. It was an early statement showing why this is the team everyone is so excited about, the consensus American League favorite. No lead is big enough when you roll out a top four of George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez, all of whom are easily capable of 30-plus home runs. On Saturday, the Jays rallied from another deficit to win 4-3. On Sunday, they hit four home runs, including the longest so far in Guerrero's young career.
Now the Rangers weren't exactly rolling out Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz, but for all the preseason hype given to the Dodgers' lineup, Toronto is certainly capable of leading the majors in runs scored. Of course, another thing that will make Blue Jays baseball so exciting is that no lead might be safe -- on either side. The Jays had a 6-1 advantage on Sunday and lost 12-6, as Hyun Jin Ryu struggled in the fourth inning, and the bullpen coughed up a bunch of runs. Closer Jordan Romano looks solid, but the middle relief for Toronto remains a big question mark.
The Blue Jays will want to get that sorted out in a hurry, because they face a brutal April schedule: They head to New York for a four-game series against the Yankees, host the A's, travel to Boston and Houston for six games and then come back home for 10 games against the Red Sox, Astros and Yankees. So that's 20 of their next 23 games against the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros. Guerrero & Co. better bring the lumber.
Here are nine other observations from the opening weekend of the 2022 MLB season:
2. A Wander-ful start for the Rays
The Rays swept the Orioles with relative ease, and I watched two of these games, which fulfills my 2022 obligation of Orioles games. I kid, Orioles fans. I kid! Wander Franco went 6-for-11 in the three games, so he is off to a .545 start. For all those who predicted Franco would win the batting crown at age 21, I'm with you. Yuli Gurriel won last year's AL title at .319. Why can't Franco beat that? After hitting .200 in his first 20 games as a rookie, he hit .323 over his final 50. At this point in his career, he isn't selling out for power, and most importantly, he barrels up the ball all the time. Of his 10 balls in play so far, five of them were at an exit velocity of 104.9 mph or higher. Franco keeps the strikeouts in check. That's a batting champ.
3. Let the kids play
The happiest development of opening weekend was the number of top prospects who began the season on Opening Day rosters. Death to service-time manipulation! Four of Kiley McDaniel's top 10 prospects began the season in the majors: Bobby Witt Jr. (No. 2), Julio Rodriguez (3), C.J. Abrams (4) and Spencer Torkelson (10). Adley Rutschman (1) and Riley Greene (5) might have been there, as well, if not for injuries. Twelve others from Kiley's top 100 also made it, including No. 23 Hunter Greene, who flashed his big-time ceiling in his Reds debut against the Braves on Sunday. He retired nine of the first 10 batters he faced, walking one and striking out six in a sizzling display of power pitching. He reached triple digits on 20 pitches in his outing and hit 99 mph on another 25. He wasn't as successful the second time through the order: Matt Olson singled off a 101 mph pitch, Austin Riley doubled off 99, Travis d'Arnaud homered off 98 and then Olson homered to dead center off 101, so Greene ended up allowing three runs in five innings (although picked up the win). He is going to have to learn how to navigate a second time (let alone a third) through the order, but he'll be fun to watch.
In 3 career games, Steven Kwan has slashed .800/.857/1.857.
— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) April 10, 2022
Impressive doesn't even begin to cover it.#ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/vXU0hOfjW4
The most impressive debut weekend, however, belonged to Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan, who came in at No. 123 overall on Kiley's list. Kwan, undersized at 5-foot-9, went 8-for-10 with three walks, one hit by pitch and no strikeouts, including a memorable 5 for 5 game in Cleveland's 17-3 rout of Kansas City on Sunday. He was just the fourth player since 1900 who went 5-for-5 in one of his first three games. (You might recall Yermin Mercedes did it last year for the White Sox in his second game and first career start.)
As you might guess after no strikeouts, the left-handed Kwan is a contact hitter who projects to hit for average. He proved doubters wrong in 2021 when he added some power to his game, hitting 12 home runs in 296 at-bats between Double-A and Triple-A, although we'll see how that translates to the majors. He swung 19 times over the weekend -- and didn't miss once, putting 10 balls in play with nine foul balls. I went through and watched all of his plate appearances and was impressed as he spit at off-speed pitches off the plate or fouled them off and waited for something in the strike zone. Here were his eight hits:
Thursday: Hard single to right off 0-2 fastball up and in (93.5 mph exit velocity)
Saturday: Line drive to center off 96.5 mph fastball at top of zone (96.5 exit velo)
Saturday: Hustle double to left-center off 98.8 mph fastball at top of zone (92.3 exit velo)
Sunday: Ground single up the middle off 3-1 fastball (103.0 exit velo)
Sunday: Blooper to left off 0-2 changeup (72.4 exit velo)
Sunday: Soft liner to right off 1-2 curveball (71.0 exit velo)
Sunday: Bouncer off the pitcher's glove (84.1 exit velo)
Sunday: Double off the right-field fence off 3-2 slider (101.0 exit velo)
OK, there were a couple of soft hits in there. But I saw all the signs of a great hit tool: He hit velocity up in the zone; he hit soft stuff; he sprayed the ball around. He isn't going to be a guy you can shift, so he'll get his share of grounders that go through. Kwan doesn't have the hype of Witt, Rodriguez and Torkelson and will have to keep hitting before he pops on the national radar, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Kwan in the running for American League Rookie of the Year. His response to his start: "I'm afraid I'm going to wake up very soon."
4. "M-V-P! M-V-P! M-V-P!"
Our first MVP chant of the season goes to Twins fans for Byron Buxton after he homered in his first two at-bats on Sunday versus the Mariners. Indeed, that meant three straight at-bats with a home run for Buxton going back to Saturday, when he hit the most impressive home run of the weekend. No, it wasn't the longest, but Buxton turned on a 101 mph fastball at the top of the strike zone from Mariners reliever Andres Munoz and blistered it into the third deck in left field to give the Twins the lead in the bottom of the eighth. Somehow, it officially measured at just 436 feet:
BYRON. BUXTON.
— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) April 9, 2022
THE #MNTWINS TAKE THE LEAD AFTER HIS MOONSHOT! pic.twitter.com/iDkfMzl33z
The Twins went on to blow that game in the ninth, but Buxton's start to 2022 is a call to the baseball gods to please let this guy stay healthy and play 150 games. Heck, I'll take 130. Remember, he hit .306/.358/.647 last season in 61 games and put up 4.5 WAR -- MVP numbers if he can stay on the field. Over his past 81 games, going back to September 2020, Buxton has 30 home runs, 25 doubles and 62 runs scored, homering once every 10 at-bats. Due to injuries, minor league demotions and the COVID-shortened season, Buxton has batted more than 350 times just once in his career. It seems strange to say about a 28-year-old, but this will hopefully be the breakout season we've been dreaming of since he debuted way back in 2015.
5. Max and the Mets
Max Scherzer's first start with the Mets was fine, especially after a tight hamstring suffered late in spring training meant he couldn't pitch on Opening Day: Six innings, three runs, three hits, six strikeouts. The one mistake was a 1-2 fastball down the middle to Josh Bell that Bell clubbed 443 feet for a two-run home run. What I noticed though: Scherzer didn't induce a single swing-and-miss on his fastball in the game: 31 four-seam fastballs, 15 swings, no misses. In 2021, his overall swing-and-miss rate on his four-seamer was 30.7%. It's probably nothing -- Scherzer had two starts last season with just one swing-and-miss on his fastball -- but consider his average fastball velocity through the years:
2022: 93.7 mph (although the one Bell hit was 95.2)
2021: 94.3
2020: 94.7
2019: 94.9
Little by little, Scherzer has relied less on his fastball -- as usually happens when you hit your late 30s, and Scherzer is now 37. Back in 2016, when his fastball averaged 95 mph, he threw it 54.5% of the time. In 2021, it was down to 46.7%, so that's about nine to 10 fewer fastballs per game. Obviously, Scherzer has adjusted just fine since his secondary stuff remains dominant. Still, let's at least monitor his fastball effectiveness moving forward.
The Mets ended up taking three of four from a bad Nationals team, blowing a 2-1 lead in the eighth on Sunday. Trevor May had been warming up in the seventh inning, but Buck Showalter instead called upon Chasen Shreve and Trevor Williams, who combined with Pete Alonso's two defensive miscues to allow the Nats to score three runs. Showalter explained that he wanted to get Shreve and Williams into a game and that it was too early in the season to have Seth Lugo or Adam Ottavino pitch three times in four days. OK. Still, a positive start for the Mets. And Tylor Megill's impressive Opening Day start -- five shutout innings, hitting 99 mph -- was a great sign that the rotation can perhaps weather Jacob deGrom's absence.
6. Thor and JV back in action
Noah Syndergaard made two one-inning appearances for the Mets at the end of last season, and the last time we saw Justin Verlander was the one start he made in 2020 before Tommy John surgery, so it was good to see them facing off against each other Saturday night in Anaheim, California.
Syndergaard tossed 5⅓ scoreless innings.
Verlander allowed just one run on a Jared Walsh home run -- enough to tag Verlander with the loss in the Angels' 2-0 victory. Verlander struck out seven, including Shohei Ohtani three times, and at 39 looked like the same old Justin Verlander who won the Cy Young Award in his most recent healthy season in 2019. He averaged 94.7 mph with his fastball, topping out at 96.1 in the first inning when he struck out Ohtani on a 2-2 heater. With runners on second and third and one out in the fifth, he fanned Ohtani and got Mike Trout to fly out, walking off the mound with a little fist pump.
"It kind of feels like my happy place," Verlander said after the game. "It's like, 'All right, this is business as usual,' even though it's been that long." He did add that his final line probably made him appear more comfortable than he was. "Lots of nervousness and anxiousness leading up to it. Felt like my debut," he said.
Syndergaard had Tommy John surgery in May 2020, and he then suffered several setbacks last summer, including elbow inflammation. The Angels signed him to a one-year, $21 million deal, hoping he can become a strong No. 2 behind Ohtani in their six-man rotation. Syndergaard is unlikely to be the guy pumping upper 90s heat and touching triple digits like in years past, but he still hit 96 mph and averaged 94.6 with his fastball. He also recorded just one strikeout, but in throwing a lot of two-seamers, he induced 12 ground balls. It might be a different -- more mature -- style of pitching for Syndergaard, but it can work.
7. Invincible Dodgers have concerns
Hey, remember what we said: It's OK to overreact. Don't feel guilty. With that in mind:
1. Julio Urias' fastball averaged 91.4 mph on Sunday as he lasted just two-plus innings. He averaged 94.1 mph. Yes, it was the first start of the season. Yes, it was in Colorado. Urias threw 185 innings last season (and 15 more in the postseason) after throwing just 78 in 2020. Due to shoulder surgery earlier in his career, he had been nursed along prior to that, so 2021 was a huge leap in workload. The hardest part about being a good starting pitcher in the majors: Doing it year after year.
2. Cody Bellinger, coming off a .165 average in 2021, had a beyond miserable spring training, hitting .139 with 18 strikeouts and one walk in 37 plate appearances. He went 0-for-8 to start the season before finally getting two hits on Sunday -- except the two hits included a dribbler down the third-base line with the shift on and a soft line drive (exit velocity of 83.9 mph) to right field. Hits are hits, but those two aren't signs that Bellinger has suddenly figured things out. He remains one of the most important "What will he do?" players of 2022, with the trade of AJ Pollock a sign the Dodgers believe that Bellinger's physical ability will eventually win out and that he will find his swing. What do you think, Dodgers fans?
8. Rodon dazzles for Giants
I thought one of the best signings of the offseason was the Giants getting Carlos Rodon on a two-year, $44 million contract. Rodon has an opt-out after 2022 if he pitches 110 innings, so the downside for the Giants would be if he gets hurt and they're stuck with a big contract for 2023. But the upside, based on his 2021 performance with the White Sox, is huge -- even if the Giants play it safe and limit his innings. Anyway, in his debut against the Marlins, Rodon allowed one run in five innings with 12 strikeouts, inducing an impressive 24 swing-and-misses out of 48 swings. He averaged -- not a misprint -- 97.4 mph with his fastball. Remember, he lost velocity at the end of last season, one reason the White Sox didn't even extend him a qualifying offer. He is healthy, for now, and given the Giants' recent success with veteran pitchers, it will be fascinating to see what he does in the park and with a good defense behind him.
9. Padres' no-hit bids
The Padres had a wild start to the season, as Yu Darvish pitched six no-hit innings in the opener, and Sean Manaea followed up with seven no-hit innings on Friday. While they lost the opener on Seth Beer's walk-off home run for the Diamondbacks on National Beer Day, the Padres ended up taking three of four in the series. They did have to scratch Blake Snell at the last minute on Sunday due to an adductor issue that arose on his final warm-up pitch, with Bob Melvin saying Snell is likely headed to the injured list. For a team that just traded Chris Paddack and had so many injuries to the rotation last season, this is not a good sign. Nabil Crismatt filled in with three scoreless innings, but the Diamondbacks weren't too happy about the switch since they had a lineup in there to face the lefty Snell. Maybe it wouldn't have mattered: The Diamondbacks hit .129 in the four games.
10. Ker-plunk!
Finally, if you thought you saw a lot of players getting hit ... you did, with 50 hit batters through the first 98 team games -- 0.51 per game (and it was 0.59 through Saturday). Through the opening weekend in 2021, the rate was 0.45 per game, while the season-ending figure was 0.43.
We had two bench-emptying incidents, one between the Mets and Nationals after the Nats hit three batters in the opener and then Francisco Lindor on Friday. Pete Alonso was left with a bloody mouth after the first game, while Lindor had to get an X-ray and undergo a concussion test after he was hit on Friday. Luckily, both were OK.
After the first Mets-Nationals game, Showalter wasn't too upset. "I've never quite figured out how hitters can have pine tar, batting gloves and wrap their bats -- and everything to hold onto the tool they are supposed to work with -- but a pitcher can't," he said. "Does that seem fair? Hopefully, we can find a happy medium, because it is a challenge right now with these guys gripping the baseball."
After Lindor was hit, however, Showalter led the charge out of the dugout; and following the game, the manager wasn't happy, even if the Nationals weren't doing it on purpose. "I don't really want to hear about 'intent,'" Showalter said, his arms crossed. "If you're throwing up in there, those things can happen. Max didn't have any trouble controlling the ball tonight."
Bottom line: The Mets could have easily lost two stars to serious injury. And you can only take so many of those before initiating retaliation in frustration -- adding to the long, sordid history of beanball wars. The Mets and Nationals have 15 more games that will bring an added tension.