You just don't see enough trades like this. Two teams in position to win at the highest level. Two veterans making real money swapped for each other, one-for-one, straight-up. No throw-in prospects. No value-balancing cash. Just proven talent for proven talent, on the cusp of a new season.
That's what makes Friday's unexpected deal sending star reliever Craig Kimbrel from the Chicago White Sox to the Los Angeles Dodgers for All-Star outfielder AJ Pollock so fascinating. It's a deal only about two players. The money? Well, Kimbrel is slated to earn $16 million this season, while Pollock is on the books for $10 million but also has a player option for 2023 with a $5 million buyout attached. A wash.
While the cash is largely neutral here, money can't totally be ignored. The Dodgers will add a little to their 2022 luxury tax bill, but they were already entrenched in that territory, so that hardly matters. The White Sox, on the other hand, pick up even more wiggle room under the $230 million tax threshold, which could come into play if they seek to bolster the roster down the road.
Still, we can largely evaluate the trade from a strictly baseball standpoint. This trade is all about two teams going all-in on winning this season's championship, and we can examine it through that prism.
One thing we can say for sure: The White Sox and Dodgers share a spring training complex in Arizona, so at least Kimbrel and Pollock won't have to move their things too far as they get ready for the season.
Let's start with the void left by Pollock's departure, as he was slotted to be the Dodgers' everyday left fielder for a third straight season.
The Dodgers will now most likely give the bulk of that time at the position to super-utility player Chris Taylor. When he's on the field with Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts, L.A. will feature a dynamic outfield defense, at the very least. That will still be the case if veteran pickup Kevin Pillar makes the roster and ends up spelling Bellinger against lefties from time to time.
Taylor has less power than Pollock while providing similar or better on-base ability. He's a slight offensive downgrade but can make up the difference in the field and on the base paths. The overall difference in bottom-line production is negligible.
At the same time, we know the Dodgers will move players around and tap into their deep well of organizational hitting depth. They often turn other teams' castoffs into plus performers and perhaps in that vein, Jake Lamb has been putting up big numbers as a non-roster-invite this spring. Zach McKinstry is still around. Gavin Lux can play in the outfield.
The Dodgers' outfield fortunes still will probably be determined by the same factor as before this trade: Bellinger finding himself at the plate and sustaining it.
While the Dodgers seem well situated to account for Pollock's departure in the outfield, Kimbrel's arrival brings the entire L.A. bullpen back into focus. The deployment of the word "back" is intentional, as now Dave Roberts can rely on the same instincts he has in past seasons, when Kenley Jansen was always waiting in the wings, knowing the ninth inning was Jansen's.
Last season, Blake Treinen finished 11th in win probability added among primary relievers even though he earned just seven saves and threw 60 of his 72½ innings before the ninth inning. That's because with Jansen usually ready to go in the traditional closing role, Roberts could use Treinen in the highest-leverage situation that arose before the ninth, giving L.A. a devastating one-two punch.
Dodgers' relievers allowed just 20% of inherited runners to score last season, a mark 8% lower than any other team in the majors. Treinen inherited 29 runners last season; just four of them scored. This is the dynamic the Dodgers will try to replicate.
It's not just Treinen of course. The roles of Daniel Hudson, Brusdar Graterol and everyone else slated for the L.A. bullpen just became more well defined as well.
There is of course one giant caveat: This plan hinges entirely upon Kimbrel being able to hold down the closer's role.
Once upon a time, that was as close to a sure bet as you'd get in the relief pitching game. When Kimbrel was in Boston, he was to the AL what Jansen was to the NL, as they both won the respective reliever of the year awards in 2017.
However, Kimbrel's performance has oscillated wildly in recent seasons. It even did so during the 2021 season alone. He looked as dominant as ever during the first part of the season, putting up a 0.49 ERA with 23 saves and one homer allowed in 39 outings for the Cubs.
Then Kimbrel was dealt to the White Sox, who hoped he could basically play the role that Treinen was filling for the Dodgers. But instead of being the yin to Liam Hendriks' yang, he reverted to the form of the pitcher who put up a combined 6.00 ERA over 2019 and 2020 for the Cubs.
Kimbrel's numbers for the White Sox were unsightly: 5.09 ERA, with a diminished (but still elite) strikeout rate, an increased walk rate and five homers allowed in 24 outings. His struggles continued in the playoffs. This spring, Kimbrel has appeared in just one game but gave up five runs over ⅔ of an inning. Which doesn't really mean anything but, you know, it's a thing that happened.
For me to hammer the Dodgers because I wouldn't want to wager on what Kimbrel is going to do this season would be akin to suggesting that I know better what he's going to do than the Dodgers do. No thanks. Kimbrel didn't adapt to the super-setup role, but if L.A.'s plan is to use him in the structured ninth-inning-hammer role that he's done at a Hall of Fame level for most of his career, then you have to believe they have a good reason to believe he can do it.
Dodgers grade: B
After Kimbrel looked so uncomfortable in the setup role for Chicago, you had to wonder how comfortable he would feel after the White Sox went out and got Kendall Graveman to more or less fill the role they wanted Kimbrel to fill last season.
Even if Kimbrel pitches well for the Dodgers, there was no guarantee he would have done the same in Chicago, and to be able to move him in exchange for Pollock is a coup for the White Sox front office. Pollock is an All-Star-level performer at his best and fills a position of need.
As uncertain as I remain about Kimbrel's likely performance, I am at the same time already concerned about Chicago's bullpen depth. Hendriks is an elite closer who will team with Graveman and lefty Aaron Bummer to give Tony La Russa a top-notch high-leverage trio.
Beyond that, the White Sox picked up veteran Joe Kelly, another former Dodger (as is Chicago catcher Yasmani Grandal). Kelly has a solid track record and loads of big-game experience, but he's also still working his way back from a biceps injury that sidelined him during last season's playoffs.
Much worse than that: Fire-hurling lefty Garrett Crochet injured his elbow during a spring outing Thursday. About the same time that the Kimbrel-Pollock trade was announced, word started to spread that Crochet is headed for Tommy John surgery. That's devastating.
The names below those mentioned already on the White Sox's bullpen depth chart are really uninspiring. You can't help but wonder if the plan to use Michael Kopech in the rotation this season might have to be revisited down the line.
On the bright side, the White Sox are a very complete team outside of these bullpen concerns, even more so with the addition of Pollock. If bullpen needs arise, the White Sox have money to throw at the problem under the tax threshold. You could see second base becoming an area at which to target an upgrade around the trade deadline but it's also possible that Josh Harrison will hold down that position just fine.
With Pollock in right, the White Sox now figure to have more of a set outfield than seemed probable before, with Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert joining Pollock. Adam Engel and Gavin Sheets will fill out the depth chart there and it's a nice mix of power, speed and defense. Ideally, maybe the White Sox could have used another lefty bat, which is why I liked lingering free agent Michael Conforto for them if he was willing to consider a short-duration deal.
Sheets and Andrew Vaughn should team up to fill the DH position while also spelling veteran first baseman Jose Abreu from time to time. Still lurking is top hitting prospect Jake Burger, who doesn't seem to have a big league role on the healthy version of the current White Sox roster.
Pollock's season-high for games played since his career year in 2015 is just 117, so he's not likely to be a true everyday player from April to October. He's played a lot of center field and even won a Gold Glove there, so he does give La Russa flexibility if he needs to move players around.
What Pollock hasn't done much is play right field. He's started just one game there during his big-league career. He's had consistently poor metrics in terms of his arm. In fact, among outfielders, only Christian Yelich and Charlie Blackmon score lower than his minus-13.3 runs added over the past five seasons, via the arm rating at Fangraphs, which uses that measure as a component of the UZR defensive rating system. Pollock endured lengthy IL stays in 2016 and 2019 for significant issues with his throwing elbow.
In many ways, the White Sox are making some of the same calculations with Pollock as the Dodgers are making with Kimbrel. They are both high-profile solutions at positions of need, and both carry a certain amount of uncertainty. They both have track records of elite play that have shown up inconsistently, mostly because of injuries in the case of Pollock.
If Pollock can stay on the field for, say, 120, 130 or 140 games, it's conceivable that the White Sox could feature baseball's best outfield. That's not a proclamation as, for a veteran, Pollock is kind of a high variability player. But some of those variable outcomes are awfully alluring.
Pollock improves Chicago's talent level, gives the White Sox another player with a large amount of postseason experience and will be another go-to personality in the clubhouse. He's the kind of last-piece-of-the-puzzle acquisition that teams in this position ought to target.