In what might end up as the least surprising outcome from Part II of the interrupted free-agency season, future Hall of Fame left-hander Clayton Kershaw will return to the only organization he's ever known, the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Kershaw will ink a one-year deal worth $17 million, plus incentives, to play his 15th season in Dodger Blue, a source told ESPN's Jeff Passan on Friday. Kershaw, 34, went 10-8 with a 3.55 ERA last season over 22 starts and 121 2/3 innings during an injury-shortened campaign.
Kershaw battled elbow soreness for much of the second half of the season before being pulled from his last start on Oct. 1 because of forearm discomfort. A few days later, the Dodgers declared Kershaw out of the postseason. Kershaw eventually received a PRP injection to address the issue and told reporters he planned to be ready for spring training.
Needless to say, this is great news for baseball fans in general and Dodgers fans in particular. Still, it is worth asking: What version of Kershaw will we get in the coming season?
On one hand, you hardly have to ask. Kershaw is one of the most consistent pitchers in history in terms of year-to-year performance, a big reason he's eventually bound for Cooperstown. Last season, Kershaw's ERA+ was 115, per baseball-reference.com, and that 15%-better-than-average mark was his worst. He's at 155 for his career.
Before the elbow trouble and even despite it, Kershaw was still pitching at about the level he has been for the last several years. His strikeout, walk and homers-allowed figures were all representative of recent performance. If anything, his ERA appeared to be to some extent a product of bad luck.
On the other hand, Kershaw has been available less and less as his career has progressed. He hasn't made 30 starts in a season since 2015 and surely won't be asked to carry a heavy load this time, either. His 5.5 innings per start last season was a career low.
Still, there's no question the Dodgers needed help in their rotation as they seek to retake the NL West after an eight-year streak of winning the division was snapped by the San Francisco Giants last season. The Giants will be looking to repeat in 2022, a quest bolstered by their agreement to sign free-agent lefty Carlos Rodon on Friday. Also, after a disappointing, injury-riddled 2021 season by the San Diego Padres, most projection systems see them bouncing back in a big way this summer.
Despite all of that, the Dodgers remain the favorite in the division. That's true despite L.A.'s revered depth being thinned by a number of high-profile free agencies, including star shortstop Corey Seager, who signed a massive contract with the Rangers. The Dodgers have a lot of talent coming back, one of baseball's top farm systems and the financial might to plug any holes that might appear.
One of those possible holes was the rotation. The Dodgers suffered numerous absences in their rotation last year. Touted righty Dustin May underwent Tommy John surgery. Kershaw struggled with his health. And former Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer was unavailable because of sexual assault allegations that leave his 2022 status unclear.
In other words, manager Dave Roberts and his staff need every arm they can get, and few arms have been more valuable than that of Kershaw. Assuming he's healthy, he'll join Walker Buehler and Julio Urias atop the L.A. rotation, with Tony Gonsolin and Andrew Heaney rounding out the likely core group.
All of this sounds a little more actuarial than seems appropriate for a pitcher of Kershaw's stature. The lefty remains one of the game's brightest stars, not just because of the merits of a great career, because but because he is still awfully good.
All along, it seemed like Kershaw's first-ever flirtation with free agency had three possible outcomes. He would either return to the Dodgers, which of course he now has. He could conceivably sign on with the Texas Rangers, the team he grew up watching in the Dallas metro area, where he still lives during the offseason. Or he could have simply decided enough is enough, and retired.
At various times since last season ended, there were rumors about each eventuality. In the end, happily for everyone who likes great pitching, Kershaw has chosen to keep playing. And happily for for Dodgers fans, he has chosen to keep playing for them.
Kershaw enters the 2022 season needing 15 wins to hit 200 for his career and still needs 330 strikeouts to join the 3,000-whiff club.
The Dodgers have been one of baseball's economic juggernauts for a long time, but most years have been in a tap dance with the luxury tax thresholds. Their outlook for this season looks like more of the same, though the ledger looks a little more flexible beyond this season. For 2022, L.A. could still be in the market for an infielder to help replace the departed Seager, and the Dodgers have been a rumored possible destination for first baseman Freddie Freeman, a Southern California native. So Kershaw's relatively modest price tag helps in that regard.
As ever, with the Dodgers, all of this is gravy: They were the NL West favorite before adding Kershaw, or anyone else, and with each move they strengthen an already strong position.
As long as Kershaw is healthy, there is no reason to think he's not going to keep performing at a high level on the mound until the day he retires. The variable is how often he gets on the mound, especially as he tries to bounce back from one of the most serious injuries with which he's had to deal.
Still, this signing borders on no-brainer status. Clayton Kershaw will be back with the Dodgers. The investment was minimal. And if you needed a blinking sign that, after a troubled offseason, everything is starting to get right with the grand old game, then this just might be it.