The New York Yankees will bring a familiar face back to the Bronx this season after agreeing to a two-year, $32 million deal with first baseman Anthony Rizzo, per ESPN's Jesse Rogers. According to Rogers, Rizzo's deal also includes an opt out after the coming season.
New York has been busy reshuffling its infield mix since the lockout ended. While there have been calls for the economically blessed Bombers to spring for one of the elite free agents like Freddie Freeman or Carlos Correa, the Yankees' moves have been a little more measured than that.
In terms of on-field fit, Freeman would have been perfect for this team but also a lot more expensive. Rizzo provides a much-needed lefty bat, a proven record of plate discipline and a power stroke well suited for Yankee Stadium, and all at a lesser price tag and a shorter commitment than New York would have needed to make to land Freeman, and that's only if he were amenable to playing in New York.
Rizzo has already had that experience after being dealt to the Yankees at last season's trade deadline, ending a stellar eight-year run with the Cubs. He quickly became a fan favorite in New York and got off to a fast start with his new club by homering in his first two games.
Overall, Rizzo's numbers in New York were tepid. He hit .249/.340/.768 after the trade, including a .232/.330/.354 mark at Yankee Stadium. Those flagging numbers could be a pattern: Rizzo has hit .240/.343/.432 over 199 games since the beginning of the 2020 season.
Are the down numbers a trend, or just a blip? That's hard to say, but he's at an age when every blip merits a raised eyebrow. Rizzo hit the ball as hard as ever last season in terms of exit velocity, so the bat speed seems to be there. He performed better against the shift than he did in 2020 and so recovered some batting average, but he was more fly-ball prone than ever and did less damage on those fly balls.
At this point, Rizzo needs to hit a high isolated power figure to hold his value. His figure last season (.192) ranked in the 45th percentile of all qualifying hitters. It's a number he can improve, but persistent back trouble that's plagued him over the years has to give you some pause.
Ideally, Rizzo's presence in the lineup gives the Yankees a more balanced look, as he joins Joey Gallo as another lefty swinger, along with switch-hitting Aaron Hicks. Newly acquired catcher Ben Rortvedt also hits from the left side, though he was brought in more for his defense than his bat.
All told, Rizzo gives the Yankees about a half-win bump on their depth chart based on projections. (ZIPS sees him at 2.8 fWAR this season on 552 plate appearances). As it happens, his signing actually bumps New York to the top of the AL East in my current forecast, though what that really means is that the Yankees and Blue Jays were in a virtual dead heat before, and remain so now.
The money here seems, at worst, like a minor overpay. If Rizzo ends up at 2-3 WAR, he'll earn his $16 million, more or less, but he was at 1.6 fWAR last season, so that's no given. Still, with the free agent market drying up, cheaper alternatives are hard to pinpoint. Rizzo's former teammate in Chicago, Kyle Schwarber, is one of the top remaining bats and might have been a fit for the Yankees. In the end, the Yankees went with the known quantity.
One issue the Yankees will need to resolve is how Aaron Boone is going to parse out playing time among his infielders. Rizzo, Gleyber Torres (2B), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (SS) and Josh Donaldson (3B) seem to be targeted for everyday roles. But you figure DJ LeMahieu would be, at worst, a super utility type getting 400 to 500 ABs.
It's not a bad problem to have and with Rizzo, Donaldson and LeMahieu on the wrong side of 30; depth is good. But you do wonder where this leaves righty slugger Luke Voit. A trade? If that's the route the Yankees want to take, you have to figure there would be a whole lot of DH-seeking National League teams willing to chat.
The Yankees might have overpaid a smidgen, but they're the Yankees, and no one is going to start a GoFundMe page for them. Rizzo is past his peak, but if he's healthy, he'll be yet another power bat, source of on-base percentage in a daunting lineup and a steadying influence in the clubhouse. And he's a lefty bat added to a roster that really needed a lefty bat.
All told, Rizzo returning to New York makes a lot of sense.