After reports came out that Robbie Ray was closing in on a five-year, $115 million deal with the Seattle Mariners, a friend of mine who's a big Mariners fan sent me a text that suggested president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is "like one of those dudes in an auction draft who gets outbid on all the big talent and then panics and overspends on average players so he can say he did something."
"Average"? Wow, talk about a lack of respect for the reigning American League Cy Young winner.
But I understand the sentiment. Ray, 30, is arguably the most difficult of the top 10 free agents to project into the future. Was his 2021 campaign -- when he led the AL in ERA, innings, strikeouts and WHIP -- a true breakout season? Will he return to his seasons of inconsistent control? Worse, will he pitch like he did in 2020, when he posted a 6.62 ERA?
There is a high degree of risk here, but you can say that about just about any pitcher. Did you like Kevin Gausman, who signed for five years and $110 million, a little more? Remember that he had a 4.48 ERA in the second half of 2021. Would you have preferred Max Scherzer? Well, sure, but the future Hall of Famer is 37, and he cost the Mets more for three years than Ray will cost the Mariners for five (they do both have opt-outs -- Scherzer after two seasons, Ray after three).
Clearly, the Mariners are buying into the improvement Ray showed in 2021 -- and there's good reason to believe in those results. Firstly, he has always had strikeout stuff and plus fastball velocity -- his rate of strikeouts per nine innings is the highest all-time for pitchers with at least 1,000 career innings. He changed his mechanics in 2021, going back to an old delivery he used in the minors -- one with a little twist that allowed him to stay better over the rubber -- and it led to improved strike-throwing. He also got into much better shape after working out twice a day in the 2020-21 offseason. Crucially, he also is the rare pitcher with no arm problems in his injury history.
Here's how Ray's contract compares to those of similar pitchers in recent seasons:
Ray, 2022: 5 years, $23M AAV (4.00 career ERA, coming off 2.84 ERA)
Gausman, 2022: 5 years, $22M AAV (4.02 career ERA, coming off 2.81)
Zack Wheeler, 2020: 5 years, $23.6M AAV (3.77 career ERA, coming off 3.96)
Patrick Corbin, 2019: 6 years, $23.3M AAV (3.91 career ERA, coming off 3.15)
Yu Darvish, 2018: 6 years, $21M AAV (3.42 career ERA, coming off 3.86)
So, no, it doesn't feel like Dipoto overpaid -- unless you focus too much on Ray's disastrous 2020 season. Wheeler is a best-case scenario, as he has improved since he left the Mets for the Phillies. Corbin illustrates the danger of committing too many seasons to a pitcher who isn't a guaranteed ace; while he helped the Nationals to the World Series title in 2019 (and, true, that might make the entire contract worthwhile), he has struggled since. But he also doesn't have the pure stuff of Ray or the others on the list.
Plus, the Mariners did need a starter, and they went one better and signed an ace. The one warning sign in Ray's 2021 season was the 33 home runs he allowed. Now he goes from the difficult AL East -- with that little league porch at Yankee Stadium, the Green Monster at Fenway, and Camden Yards and Rogers Centre, both good home run parks -- to T-Mobile Park and the other pitchers' parks in the AL West. Another reason to think that, even if he's not a perennial Cy Young contender, Ray can continue pitching at an All-Star-caliber level.
Seattle's rotation currently lines up as:
1. Ray
2. Marco Gonzales
3. Chris Flexen
4. Logan Gilbert
5. Justin Dunn
6. Matt Brash
7. Justus Sheffield
There is room for another veteran here, especially after the Mariners parted ways with Yusei Kikuchi. Bringing back Tyler Anderson is a possibility. Don't sleep on Brash, whom the Mariners acquired from the Padres in August of 2020 for pitcher Taylor Williams in a steal of a trade. Williams would make just six appearances for the Padres before he was waived, while Brash had a stunning breakout in the minors in 2021, with a 2.31 ERA across Class A and Double-A, including 142 K's in 97.2 innings as he showcased an upper-90s fastball. He needs to improve his control, but he has a chance to make an impact in the second half of 2022. They also have George Kirby and Emerson Hancock, two former first-round picks and top-100 prospects who could pitch their way into some starts.
There's room in the budget, too -- including Ray's salary, the Mariners' current projected payroll sits at $100 million, and Dipoto has indicated they're willing to go higher. That means there's money to spend, especially after losing out on Marcus Semien, who would have been a perfect fit for second base. The Mariners must have sensed early on that Semien would go for higher than they were comfortable with, since they acquired Adam Frazier, who should slot in at second base.
Where they should focus next is offense -- and lots of it. The Mariners won 90 games despite being outscored by 51 runs; that came with a large dosage of clutch hitting they won't be able to replicate in 2022. Overall, they ranked tied for 11th in the AL in runs (4.30 per game), last in batting average (.226), 14th in OBP (.303) and 14th in OPS (.688).
Frazier helps a little, especially in the OBP department -- Mariners second basemen hit just .223/.295/.358 in 2021 -- but he's not a big impact bat due to his lack of power, so the Mariners should continue their search for sluggers. Kris Bryant and Javier Baez are the two free agents who make sense for third base, although you would have to convince Baez to play there instead of his desired position of shortstop -- the Mariners have said they're not moving J.P. Crawford, a Gold Glove winner in 2020, off that position. They also need a center fielder, as Jarred Kelenic is stretched defensively there and Kyle Lewis can't stay healthy. Starling Marte was the only good center fielder available in free agency, so maybe they could make a trade there (one of the young starting pitching prospects as a centerpiece for Pittsburgh's Bryan Reynolds?).
Ray and Frazier are a good start to the offseason for the franchise with the longest playoff drought in the majors. Still, the AL West could be tough in 2022, even if the A's do trade Matt Olson and Matt Chapman. The Astros will be strong again, even without Carlos Correa. The Angels have made some pitching additions and will hope for a healthy Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. The Rangers have spent like a bachelor party in Las Vegas, going megabucks with Corey Seager, Semien and Jon Gray. The Mariners need to do more than this just to get back to 90 wins -- let alone actually play in a postseason game.