The Houston Astros made their third World Series appearance in five years, but have now lost in their past two, falling to the Atlanta Braves in this year's Fall Classic.
What does the Astros' future look like now that their 2021 postseason run is over? David Schoenfield takes a look at where Houston stands and answers three key questions for the club moving forward to 2022 and beyond.
Houston Astros
Notable free agents: Carlos Correa, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Yimi Garcia, Kendall Graveman, Ryan Pressly ($7 million club option), Yuli Gurriel ($8 million club option)
The Astros will certainly pick up the options on Pressly and Gurriel, while Correa, Greinke and Verlander accounted for $66.3 million in payroll in 2021 (not counting the portion of Greinke's salary that Arizona paid).
Trade candidates: Nobody stands out. They will get calls on outfielders Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick, who both look like solid-average offensive contributors with plus defense in center field.
Extension candidates: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy
Tucker is the one to watch here as Houston has already managed to sign Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman to extensions. He might be close to reaching their level after a big 2021.
1. Can they sign Correa, and if not, who takes over at shortstop?
Re-signing him seems unlikely. When a big star reaches free agency, he almost always ends up signing with another team, and after an excellent two-way season, Correa will command the biggest contract of all the free-agent shortstops. Needless to say, that had already led to a lot of speculation that he'll end up with the Yankees.
The best internal option is Jeremy Pena, son of former major leaguer Geronimo Pena and the team's third-round pick in 2018 out of the University of Maine. He's regarded as the best defender in the Houston system, and his bat has been better than expected. He hit .287/.346/.598 at Triple-A Sugar Land, although a wrist injury limited him to 30 games. The good news is he put up those numbers after returning in August, so the power was a big plus.
Of course, with Correa, Greinke and Verlander off the payroll, there is room to go after one of the free-agent shortstops. Keep in mind that Bregman's salary takes a leap from $13 million in 2022 to $30 million in 2023 and that Tucker and Alvarez will eventually need big raises. Still, the bet here is Pena getting a chance to take over.
2. OK, if not a shortstop, what player will they go after in free agency?
Given the room in the payroll, it makes sense to go after a starting pitcher, even though Houston does have good depth here. A return engagement with Verlander is possible, but don't be surprised to see the team in the bidding for one of the big starters out there: Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman. The Astros survived just fine without a dominant No. 1, but they also miss the days of starting a playoff series with Verlander or Gerrit Cole. Scherzer on a short-term, big-money deal makes a lot of sense.
3. What's up with Dusty Baker?
The 72-year-old skipper is also a free agent. Baker has expressed his desire to return in 2022, but he has been in this situation several times in his career. "I've seen this a lot of times, and it kind of makes you wonder as to why, but hey," he said in late September. "It is what it is."\
Before the start of the Astros' division series against the White Sox, owner Jim Crane remained noncommittal. "We haven't really talked about [Baker's future]," Crane said of Baker's future. "We're going to wait for things to get over with here. We have to keep our focus on playing baseball right now and playing baseball well."
Part of the equation is that Houston bench coach Joe Espada has been a popular managerial candidate for a few years and will likely be in discussion for the Mets opening and should any other positions become vacant this offseason. If the Astros view him as a manager, they might have to let Baker go to keep Espada.