This MLB postseason felt like it could be one of those years when nearly every series went the distance -- it certainly seemed the first round had a chance for all four division series to go five games, with each one so evenly matched.
Instead, the Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves wrapped up their series in four games, with the Red Sox winning their final two in walk-off fashion -- joining the 1991 Twins as the only teams to win the final two games of a postseason series that way.
So as we wait for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants to play their Game 5, let's look at some of the things we've learned so far ...
The bizarre, controversial drama of October continues
The playoffs never fail us in this regard, which is why October baseball is perfect. On Sunday night, we had the wild Kevin Kiermaier ground-rule double that bounced off the fence, off the ground, off Hunter Renfroe and over the fence, costing the Rays what would have been the go-ahead run in the 13th inning of Game 3 against the Red Sox.
On the same night, we had the dubious noninterference call on Yasmani Grandal's grounder to first base, when he veered into the field of play and was hit on the throw to home plate, opening up a big inning for the White Sox in Game 3 against the Astros. On both calls, the umpires might have gotten it right based on the letter of the rule, but both plays failed the test of common sense. Yes, this is baseball -- weird things happen all the time -- but it sure seems they happen more often in the playoffs.
Then we get to the really fun stuff: second-guessing the managers, a better October tradition than Halloween. Even when managers make the right move, it can backfire. Milwaukee Brewers closer Josh Hader had pitched before the ninth inning just twice all season -- once in a blowout game because he hadn't pitched in 11 days, and once in the final week in a 4-3 game. He hadn't pitched more than one inning in any outing. In Game 4 against the Braves, Craig Counsell brought him in to begin the eighth in a 4-4 game, obviously hoping to get two innings out of him. Makes sense: Get the best reliever in the game in there with your season on the line. (And to be fair, if Devin Williams hadn't broken his hand celebrating the Brewers' division title, he might have been pitching instead.)
Freddie Freeman hit a two-out, go-ahead home run -- the first home run to a lefty Hader had allowed all season. The Braves moved on to the NLCS, and chants of "Fred-die, Fred-die" rained down from the fans as the Braves celebrated a few minutes later. The Brewers remain in search of their first World Series title.
The drama of the playoffs is more than just the tears of joy and tears of defeat. Managers start doing stuff they hadn't done all season. In the top of the ninth, the Brewers got a leadoff single. Then Kolten Wong attempted a sacrifice bunt, and he popped out. Maybe he did it on his own, who knows, but the Brewers hadn't bunted all season in this type of situation. They had five sacrifice bunts from their position players all year: two in the bottom of the 10th of a tie game (with the zombie runner on second), twice with a lead, and once in a tie game in the fourth inning (probably an attempt to bunt for a hit). Suddenly, a sacrifice attempt with your season hanging in the balance? That might not have looked out of place in 1981 or 1991, but it was a strange call for 2021. It was a failure to execute, yes, but also a reminder that curious things happen in October.
Start counting the shutouts
It shouldn't be too surprising that the American League games have featured several high-scoring outbursts and the National League four shutouts in their first eight games. (OK, four shoutouts out of eight is definitely extreme.) The Giants' 1-0 victory over the Dodgers in Game 3 was just the 20th 1-0 game of the wild-card era (since 1995), out of 904 playoff games up to that point -- just a 2.2% rate of a 1-0 game. Dodgers fans were left cursing the wind the Giants apparently brought with them from San Francisco (although Giants fans happily responded that it didn't stop Evan Longoria's fly ball from cutting through the teeth of it).
The run scoring actually had been pretty close between the two leagues in the regular season. AL teams averaged 4.60 runs per game, while NL teams averaged 4.46, with the DH basically accounting for the difference. But the NL had the longer list of dominating starting pitchers. Of the 20 lowest ERAs this season among pitchers with at least 120 innings, 13 were National Leaguers, including 10 who made it to the postseason. Logan Webb was one of those, with a 3.05 ERA, and his gem in Game 1 against the Dodgers was perhaps the first one of a breakout performance; he'll get another opportunity in Game 5.
Meanwhile, the top four offenses were all AL teams, with the Astros, Rays and Red Sox all making it to the division series round. The Dodgers and Giants were the top two offenses in the NL -- but each is missing one of their best hitters in Max Muncy and Brandon Belt, respectively (they also ranked 1-2 in fewest runs allowed, stats that might be cancelling each other out in their DS matchup). The Brewers, meanwhile, had the worst offense of the 10 playoff teams, ranking 20th in the majors in OPS and 23rd in park-adjusted OPS+, and they scored just six runs in four games against the Braves.
Altogether, we've had five shutouts already. We had seven in last year's expanded playoffs. The most in one postseason during the wild-card era is 10 in 2016 (Cleveland accounted for five of those on its way to losing the World Series to the Cubs).
Baserunning is important!
We don't talk much about baserunning during the regular season. It was an ongoing topic in New York, where the Yankees were generally slow and unadventurous (until third-base coach Phil Nevin sent Aaron Judge on an ill-advised sprint for home plate in the wild-card game), but big-picture issues take precedence over the long season.
In a short series with close games, however, we get to hyperfocus on every little thing. We can see the impact of speed on the bases -- recall Mookie Betts in last year's postseason -- and we can see the impact of baserunning blunders. Adam Duvall had a colossal mistake for the Braves in Game 3, when, with runners on first and third, he tagged up from first base on a fly ball to left field -- costing the Braves a run when he was tagged out at second before Austin Riley crossed home plate. The score was 0-0 at the time, and while the Braves did win the game, it's the kind of mistake that could have been costly. Elias tracked down the last similar play in the postseason and found one in 1996, when Brian Jordan of the Cardinals was doubled off first on a foul popup to first base without the runner on third scoring.
Alex Verdugo getting thrown out at third base in the eighth inning of Game 4 for the Red Sox when the score was tied at 5 wasn't as much of a blunder, but was likewise a huge, costly out at the time. (Granted, it took a great throw from Kiermaier, and Verdugo was out only because he momentarily slid off the base.) The Red Sox rescued Verdugo with the walk-off win in the ninth. This is more conjecture than proven research, but doesn't it feel like when the postseason comes around, players think it's suddenly time to run the bases hard/aggressively ... only to regularly mess up all the time? Adrenaline sometimes takes root over running smart. Keep an eye on the basepaths moving forward.
So this is how the Giants won 107 games
In some fashion, these Giants are similar to the 2010-2012-2014 teams that won three World Series in five years -- except the 2021 Giants are much better. Those teams had good starting pitching -- and better offenses than they got credit for -- made all the plays on defense and had a super-secret bullpen that dominated in the postseason. (Giants relievers had a 2.42 ERA over the three postseasons.) But the 2021 Giants have excellent starting pitching (only the 2010 rotation compares), the same quality defense and super-secret good bullpen, and much more power,.
This year's revelation has been brand-new rookie closer Camilo Doval, who is throwing 100 mph smokeballs and nasty sliders. He picked up a two-inning save in Game 3, getting six outs with an efficient 22 pitches. I say "new" because Doval didn't pick up the first of his three saves until the final week of the season (with Jake McGee injured, although McGee has returned). Doval was up-and-down throughout the season and struggled with his command in Triple-A, where he had a 1.70 WHIP and 4.99 ERA over 30⅔ innings. With the Giants, however, he had 37 strikeouts with just nine walks in 27 innings -- including just one walk over his final 12 appearances in September. No team has as many coaches as the Giants -- their roster lists 16 -- and clearly one of those phalanx of coaches helped him fix his mechanics/control at the big league level. Look for every team to copy the Giants and hire more coaches in 2022.
Anyway, it seems every October, some reliever we've never heard of pops up -- and often is never really heard from again. Doval, however, certainly feels like a future closer. Maybe his control issues relapse -- maybe in his next appearance -- but it's big-time stuff. And for the record, yes, you can win with a rookie closer -- the White Sox did it in 2005 with Bobby Jenks and the Cardinals in 2006 with Adam Wainwright, both with a similar story to Doval's, not taking over until late in the season (in both those instances, because of an injury to the regular closer).
Newest Red Sox paying dividends
Maybe the best -- or at least most underrated -- free-agent signing of the offseason was Boston's two-year, $14 million deal with Enrique Hernandez. Chaim Bloom brought in the former Dodgers utility man to play second base, but he ended up starting 81 games in center field -- and playing well out there, with plus-14 defensive runs saved. He also had a good season at the plate, hitting .250/.337/.449 with 35 doubles and 20 home runs. The total package was worth 4.9 WAR.
Hernandez had some big moments in the postseason with the Dodgers, including three home runs in the clinching Game 5 of the 2017 NLCS, but his two-game hot streak against the Rays was unprecedented. He tied records with five hits and four-extra base hits in one postseason game when he went 5-for-6 with a home run in Game 2 and then went 3-for-6 with another home run in Game 3, putting together seven hits in a row and a record eight hits over a two-game span. He then hit the series-winning sacrifice fly in Game 4.
Two other Bloom additions also paid huge dividends against the Rays. Bloom got Nick Pivetta (and prospect Connor Seabold) in August of 2020 for relievers Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree -- who have since been waived a combined three times. Pivetta got the save in the season finale in his first relief appearance of the season, pitched 4⅔ innings in relief in Game 1 against the Rays and then four scoreless innings to get the win in the 13-inning marathon in Game 3 -- two days after throwing 73 pitches. Those could end up as the four most important innings all season for the Red Sox.
Speaking of rookie closers, Garrett Whitlock might have that role moving forward for the Red Sox. Bloom stole Whitlock in the Rule 5 draft from the Yankees. He hadn't pitched above Double-A and he was coming off Tommy John surgery, so the Yankees thought they could slip him through the draft. Nope. He's been Boston's best reliever, and while he had just two saves, Alex Cora has apparently buried Adam Ottavino, All-Star Matt Barnes wasn't even originally on the playoff roster, and Hansel Robles is Hansel Robles. Similar to 2018, Cora is using starters in relief and trying to find the hot hand. Whitlock is his go-to guy right now.
This is how good organizations win -- finding players like Hernandez, Pivetta and Whitlock without giving up anything -- and why teams like the Phillies are stuck in mediocrity.
Tampa Bay had a bad case of the bullpen blues
OK, I know the Rays are way smarter than all of us, and we have to factor in that four games is hardly the final answer in defining a strategy, but Tampa Bay's bullpen certainly blew up at the wrong time. Using pitchers in any role and mapping out innings obviously worked during the regular season, when the Rays' pen led the majors in innings and helped cover for a so-so rotation. But it's one thing to do this against the Orioles in July, another to do it in Fenway Park in a must-win playoff game.
In Game 4, reliever Collin McHugh started and threw two scoreless innings and just 18 pitches. Nonetheless, Kevin Cash went to Game 1 starter Shane McClanahan in the third inning. Twenty-eight pitches later, the Red Sox were up 5-0. A couple of thoughts here:
First, the Rays handled McClanahan very carefully all season. He started just five games on four days' rest, 12 on five, and seven on six or more. Yet now Cash asked him to pitch long relief on three days' rest, after throwing 82 pitches in Game 1. Yes, we've seen other managers do this -- the Red Sox did it with Pivetta in Game 3. But McClanahan is a young pitcher tasked to do something he was completely unaccustomed to doing at the major league level. That's a tough ask.
On top of that, the pen had been worn out by the blowout in Game 2 and the 13-inning Game 3, when relievers had to throw 11 innings after starter Drew Rasmussen was pulled after two. Now, you can't anticipate a 13-inning game< and in the regular season the Rays would just call up two new relievers for the next game, but this points to the risk of pulling a starter early and relying so heavily on relievers. You don't need complete games, but you need your starters to go more than two innings.
Quick hooks aplenty
Speaking of starters pitching deep into games, at the start of the playoffs, I asked my editor -- in all sincerity -- whether we'll see a single start of seven innings this postseason. I was wrong. Out of the first 36 pitcher starts, we had two: Webb went 7⅔ innings in his brilliant effort for the Giants and Max Scherzer went seven in his losing effort in that 1-0 game. But we also had six starts of two innings or fewer (McHugh was the only reliever) and 20 where the starter failed to throw at least five innings.
Some of this is related to the urgency of the wild-card game and the division series. Managers don't want to let a game get away early. Still, this is the trend for modern pitcher usage. Last postseason, there were just eight outings of at least seven innings out of 106 starts (7.5%). OK, that was a weird season with COVID-19. In 2019, it was 17 out of 74 (23.0%) and in 2018 it was nine out of 66 (13.6%). Maybe the leashes will get a little longer in the LCS, at least in Games 1 and 2, but managers are turning to their bullpens earlier and earlier.
Nobody likes the Astros (outside of Houston)
Sample text from a brother-in-law: "I'm not going to watch any baseball the rest of the season unless the Giants advance." This came late in the Astros' series clincher as they were wrapping up a 10-1 win over the White Sox -- so much for Ryan Tepera's theory that the Astros can only hit at home. (Yes, my brother-in-law is a Yankees fan.)
The Astros are certainly public enemy No. 1. Fans won't like seeing them in the ALCS. But let's give them their ... well, due may not be the right word here. Let's acknowledge that they have reached their fifth straight LCS, a feat matched only by the 1971-75 A's and the 1991-99 Braves (eight in a row). It's an impressive accomplishment, and they have the lineup and pitching to reach another World Series. If you don't want to cheer for Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve, you can at least cheer for Dusty Baker, the 72-year-old manager seeking his first World Series title as a skipper.
Altuve has silenced his critics not only with 31 home runs in the regular season but also with a hot start in the playoffs, hitting .313 with a home run, two doubles and nine runs scored against the White Sox. Kyle Tucker hit two home runs and stole two bases. Correa hit .385. Yordan Alvarez hit .273 with a home run and six walks. This is a lethal lineup, and it beat up on a strikeout-throwing White Sox staff.
The Astros open at -150 in the ALCS, with the Red Sox at +130. The ALCS betting favorite is 7-1 over the previous eight series, with the only "upset" coming in ... 2018, when the Red Sox beat the Astros (although given the Red Sox won 108 games that year, it was hardly a big upset). So, watch out, Astros haters, Houston may be headed to another World Series.
Five games is not enough
Finally, a minor rant about the playoff structure. (We'll keep this quick.) It's time to make the division series a best-of-seven showdown. After winning 100 games, the Rays deserved a longer series to prove their mettle. The Dodgers and Giants certainly deserved to settle things over seven games rather than five. If the NBA and NHL can have best-of-seven series in the first round, so can MLB. Maybe you make it seven games in eight days rather than five in seven, so you're adding only one day to the schedule. (We don't want the postseason to drag on too long.)
Unfortunately, it seems likely MLB will add more playoff teams in the future -- a 12-team or a 14-team format, probably adding more short series instead of lengthening the ones already in existence. The urgency of a five-game series makes it fun, but I want to see a bigger test of a team's depth. I don't want one fluky ground-rule double deciding a series. Or maybe I just wanted to see Wander Franco get a couple of more at-bats, Kiermaier make one more wonderful play in center field or Corbin Burnes get one more start.