It's still mathematically possible that the New York Mets will construct a surprise ending to their 2021 story. According to Fangraphs, their chances for making the playoffs, as of Monday morning, stand at 2.3%. They aren't totally out of it yet.
But it's likely they will be soon, and then the organizational autopsy on what went wrong should begin in earnest. Steve Cohen, the team's first-year owner, has been a constant presence on social media since his purchase was approved, so it stands to reason that he'll be asking the most questions, the hardest questions, and green-lighting changes that seem inevitable.
Because as bad as the Mets have looked in the month of August, and in their brutal 13-game stretch against the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants, the context actually could be even worse. Jacob deGrom was the best starting pitcher any of us have ever seen in his 15 outings this year, and in those games, the Mets went 11-4. In all other games, they are 52-63. If not for deGrom's outings, Cohen's team would be in the same winning-percentage neighborhood as the Kansas City Royals and Colorado Rockies. The Mets have had injuries, yes, but that excuse goes away in the context of the messy NL East. The Atlanta Braves also have lost some of their best players, including MVP candidate Ronald Acuna Jr. The Philadelphia Phillies continue to be a mystery. The Washington Nationals struggled before cashing out. And the Miami Marlins are back to being the Marlins, with a lot of financial concerns.
The Mets declined an ESPN interview request for Cohen on Friday, as they have for other entities recently. It's a sensitive time early in his ownership. Even after Cohen jacked up the Mets' payroll by about 25%, to about $200 million, his is a third-place team with little apparent bedrock beyond Cohen's money and ambition. This weekend didn't get any better: Javier Baez, later saying he was frustrated with booing fans, gave them a thumbs-down sign at Citi Field, prompting Mets president Sandy Alderson to release a statement Sunday night, saying, "these comments, and any gestures by him or other players with a similar intent, are totally unacceptable and will not be tolerated."
As for deGrom, what is he going to be in 2022? Nobody really knows at this point -- and certainly can't know until he pitches again, and demonstrates he can be counted on. As is the team's prerogative, the Mets haven't really detailed the range of possibilities in deGrom's diagnosis. But in light of all of the breakdowns he has suffered in this 11th season after his first Tommy John surgery, it couldn't be a surprise to anyone if injuries continue to be a part of what he brings to the table.
It would also be difficult for anyone to project what the team will get out of its highest-paid player, Francisco Lindor, in the last nine years of his contract. Lindor has had great seasons in the past, but he has been a disappointment or hurt in his first year with the Mets -- and his offensive performance is in keeping with the trajectory that some in the Cleveland organization fretted about. His year-by-year OPS+:
2018: 132
2019: 117
2020: 102
2021: 89
Lindor needs an offseason of work in shortening his swing and generating a better approach. He has also been using the thumbs-down gesture, so he will need to start to repair his relationship with Mets fans -- because unlike Baez, Lindor has many years left in Queens.
There is no bedrock in the on-field staff, given the uncertainty. Mets manager Luis Rojas is in his first gig, and at the very least, sources say his status will be under evaluation, which is a nice way of saying he might well be fired. Pitching coach Jeremy Hefner has had success and has a great working history with the best pitcher on the planet, which should mean something to the next manager, if the front office decides to make a change.
But even the front office does not seem to be the stable foundation that Cohen might've envisioned when he took over the Mets. Alderson has a long and storied history as a baseball executive, but he is 73 years old. Cohen's intention was to have a strong, experienced baseball ops person working under Alderson, which is why his camp sent feelers out to some of the best and brightest in the industry -- and they said no. Instead, Alderson hired Jared Porter, who was subsequently fired for sending explicit texts and images to a reporter during his tenure with the Chicago Cubs, forcing the Mets to immediately promote Zack Scott into a position of responsibility he wasn't supposed to have so soon. Of all of the baseball decisions made by the current front office, the best has turned out to be the signing of right-hander Taijuan Walker to a two-year, $20 million deal -- but that was sort of an accident, a Plan B the Mets pursued after they nearly landed Trevor Bauer with the most lucrative annual salary offered to any pitcher, ever.
So what does Cohen think of the front office's performance? He hasn't said. And there is tension and concern within the organization about what his response will be.
The Mets' lineup was exceptional in the 60 games of 2020, ranking second in wRC+ behind the Dodgers, but this year, the offense has been the greatest liability, ranking next to last in runs scored. Incomprehensibly, the lineup has generated barely more runs than the Pirates, a team that traded its best offensive players. The perception of Jeff McNeil is that he always hits -- but this year, he hasn't. Dominic Smith's OPS has dropped more than 300 points, from .993 to .664. Michael Conforto's struggles have been shocking, considering how good he has been in the past.
Now the Mets have to decide whether to extend a qualifying offer of about $19 million to Conforto. Other teams say they should, with the expectation that Conforto -- a Scott Boras client -- would turn that down, yielding draft compensation for the Mets if he signs elsewhere. The Mets have a similar decision with Noah Syndergaard, who just started a minor league rehabilitation assignment in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and hasn't pitched an inning this year: Do they give him a qualifying offer, which he might well accept as he works to rebuild his market value?
What do they do with Marcus Stroman, another prospective free agent? Will they finally address third base in a substantive way? Will the lineup be better? Will the bullpen be effective? For the sake of planning: What will the Mets' rotation be if deGrom's appearances are again limited, or if he's absent altogether?
Turns out that for Cohen, generating the cash to buy the team he has long rooted for was the easy part of being an owner.