The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres haven't played each other since June 23 -- that's two months, for those of you scoring at home -- and the latter's performance of late has been, well, less than inspiring. Still, that doesn't erase how heated this rivalry has been since last October.
With the two National League West contenders vying for, at the very least, the two NL wild-card spots -- if not the division crown -- sparks could fly again this week at Petco Park in the first three of their nine remaining clashes before the end of the regular season.
So can we expect fireworks this week and beyond? More memorable moments? Will we see the Dodgers eventually surpass the San Francisco Giants and take first place? Will the Padres -- gasp! -- miss the playoffs entirely? We asked ESPN baseball writers Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield to tackle some of the biggest questions facing L.A. and San Diego as a high-stakes September for both clubs quickly approaches.
Earlier this season, some baseball expert who will go unnamed called the Dodgers-Padres rivalry the best in baseball. After a two-month hiatus, and the rise of a certain team in the Bay Area, is it still No. 1 now -- and do you expect it to heat up again down the stretch?
Gonzalez: It's still in the conversation, but it certainly has lost some heft. The Padres have dropped nine of their last 11 games and are suddenly battling the Reds for the final playoff spot, while the Dodgers are making an inspired push for a ninth consecutive division title. But the circumstances don't change the fact that these teams (1) are very evenly matched, (2) have a lot at stake this week and (3) always seem to play tight games.
The Padres swept the Dodgers at Petco Park when they last played, but all three of those games were separated by four or fewer runs. Before that, they played 68 innings over the course of seven games against each other and were separated by two or fewer runs in all but seven of those innings. Mookie Betts ended one game with a diving catch; Fernando Tatis Jr. homered five times over the course of three games at Dodger Stadium -- including two homers on the anniversary of his father's two-grand-slam inning in that ballpark -- and another game saw the Padres erase a six-run deficit to win in extra innings.
Schoenfield: Let's face it, the Padres are back to being the annoying younger brother trying to tag along to big brother's game. Sure, last season and into this season, it appeared little brother had all the skills and ability to play with the older kids. Alas, big brother has decided to step it up and teach a lesson. The Dodgers are 13-2 over their past 15 games. The Padres are 2-9 over their past 11 and 19-25 since the beginning of July. They are now as close to the trailing Rockies in the standings as they are to the Dodgers.
Needless to say, it's been a frustrating turn of events for the Padres. Back in spring training, it appeared they had the rotation talent and depth to compete with the Dodgers -- Yu Darvish, Dinelson Lamet, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove and Chris Paddack looked like a ferocious fivesome, with talented youngsters MacKenzie Gore and Ryan Weathers in reserve. Now the rotation is so depleted the team had to turn to Jake Arrieta, who had pretty much been the worst regular starter in the majors in 2021. He lost his start and got injured. The scheduled starters for this series are Weathers (14.26 ERA over his past five outings) or To Be Determined if the Padres switch off Weathers, Snell (at least he has a 2.68 ERA at home, compared with 7.01 on the road), and Undecided. Against Julio Urias, Walker Buehler and Max Scherzer. Good luck. The Padres, perhaps in a sign of desperation, fired pitching coach Larry Rothschild on Monday.
Will the Dodgers ultimately overtake the Giants in the NL West?
Gonzalez: The Dodgers have won 13 of their past 15 -- including nine in a row before Sunday's loss to the Mets -- but have picked up only 1½ games on the Giants in that stretch. By now you should have already come around to the idea that the 2021 Giants are far more than a feel-good story -- they're legitimate World Series contenders capable of withstanding the defending champs. The Dodgers lead the majors in run differential at plus-204, but the Giants rank fourth with an impressive plus-142. Both teams hit, both teams pitch and both teams are incredibly deep.
Unfortunately, the Giants and Dodgers are scheduled to play each other only three more times (Sept. 3-5). After that, Los Angeles will play eight series against teams that are a combined 30 games below .500, while San Francisco will play eight series against teams that are a combined 37 games below .500. Not much separation there. In the end, the Dodgers' chances will probably come down to the health of their starting rotation. Urias, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin and Danny Duffy all reside on the injured list at the moment (although Urias is expected to be activated for Tuesday's game).
Schoenfield: We've kept waiting for the Giants to slow down, but they show no signs of doing that, and the offense could be even better down the stretch. It's healthier than it's been in a couple of months with Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria off the injured list (plus the acquisition of Kris Bryant). The Giants' next 13 games are against the Mets, Braves, Brewers and Dodgers, and the NL West leaders also have 10 games against San Diego in September. So the Padres will at least have a big say in who wins the division -- it just won't be them. In the end, I like the Dodgers' rotation to finish strong, especially with Buehler on a Cy Young roll and Scherzer right behind him, and edge past the Giants to win a ninth straight division title.
The Padres' schedule the rest of the way is brutal -- and their playoff chances seem to dip further by the day. Will they even make the postseason?
Gonzalez: "Brutal" might actually be an understatement. Over these last six weeks, the Padres will play three series each against the Dodgers and Giants and will also play the Astros, Braves and Cardinals. Of their 12 remaining series, only three will come against teams currently below .500 (and two of those are against Shohei Ohtani's Angels). It's why their playoff odds, per FanGraphs, have dipped to 26%, while the Reds, who have a much worse run differential, are at 64.3%. Here's the weird thing about the Padres, though: They actually seem to like playing against good teams. They're 17-18 against the Diamondbacks and Rockies this season but 11-8 against the Dodgers and Giants.
Schoenfield: The schedule is one thing, but it's the performance that makes it easy to doubt the Padres right now:
Rotation ERA by month: 2.67, 3.61, 4.41, 5.97, 5.63
Bullpen ERA by month: 3.08, 1.74, 4.00, 3.17, 4.07
The bullpen has looked a little gassed of late, and having to make a few starts in bullpen games hasn't helped. Meanwhile, the offense isn't good enough to carry a struggling pitching staff. The Padres averaged 5.42 runs per game in 2020 but are at 4.69 in 2021 -- still above average (remember, pitchers didn't hit in 2020), but not the powerhouse lineup we saw last season. The top five OPS+ figures by Padres players this year are 180, 133, 130, 119 and 117. Last season they were 162, 161, 157, 134 and 130. The Padres need their lineup to be great down the stretch.
The Reds, meanwhile, are playing their best baseball of the season, going 14-7 with a plus-44 run differential in August. They went 15-12 in June and 16-10 in July, so they've been good for nearly three months now. They also have nine games left against the Pirates and just three against the Brewers. I like Cincinnati's chances to win the second wild card.
Three Fernando Tatis Jr. questions in one: Will he stay healthy, will he stay in the outfield, and will he win NL MVP?
Gonzalez: When Tatis returned from his first shoulder-related stint on the IL around mid-April, ESPN injury expert Stephania Bell allowed that rehabbing Tatis' shoulder subluxation in hopes of avoiding surgery was a reasonable approach. But she noted that the typical strengthening program for that injury is several weeks, not a handful of days. The Padres, in their quest to capitalize on a rare contention window, have fast-tracked Tatis back to the field every time his left shoulder has been an issue. They talked about the possibility of him tempering his style of play. Most recently, they even moved him to the outfield.
By this point, it's pretty clear Tatis will require surgery at some point this calendar year. The Padres simply hope to avoid that until after their season ends, and they appear to be willing to do whatever it takes to keep his bat in the lineup. Two of the three questions above are relatively easy to answer. Will he win the MVP if he remains healthy? I'd bet on that. Will he remain in the outfield in an effort to stay healthy? The Padres seem convinced of that. Will he actually stay on the field? There's no way of knowing. He could be one subluxation away from his season ending, and there's no telling when -- or how -- that might occur.
Schoenfield: I'm going with: Yes, he stays healthy -- which means, yes, he will win the NL MVP Award. It's not necessarily cut and dried, as Max Muncy actually leads in Baseball-Reference WAR, 5.5 to 5.4, while Tatis leads in FanGraphs WAR, 4.9 to 4.8 (Trea Turner is also at 4.8). So it's arguably close, but if Tatis does stay healthy and keeps producing, he'll win. No other NL player has come close to being as valuable while on the field.
What's the biggest concern for the Dodgers down the stretch (besides the Giants)?
Gonzalez: Betts' hip and Kershaw's elbow. It's that simple. Betts is expected to return on Thursday after recently being diagnosed with a bone spur in his right hip, but the question is how long he can continue to play without pain. Betts has had trouble with that hip since the onset of the regular season and has since received two cortisone injections. He returned from his first IL stint at the start of August, but the pain resurfaced, prompting tests that revealed the bone spur. He has since reported feeling pain-free, but it remains to be seen how the hip will respond to playing every day.
Kershaw is a bigger mystery. The Dodgers' longtime ace hasn't pitched since July 3 because of what has been described mostly as inflammation around his left forearm. He has restarted his throwing program over the past week or so and will soon begin throwing bullpen sessions again. But there might not be enough time for him to be fully stretched out before the end of the season. Another setback -- he suffered one while admittedly trying to return too quickly the first time -- could jeopardize his season.
Schoenfield: I'll toss in the Dodgers' bullpen as well. On one hand, it's nowhere near as bad as the Dodgers make it out to be (fourth in the majors in ERA). On the other, Los Angeles is 3-12 in extra-inning games, which is why it doesn't have a five-game lead on San Francisco. Let's see whether Blake Treinen, Kenley Jansen & Co. can finish off the close games.
Prediction time: How many games will the Dodgers and Padres win -- and how far will each go this season?
Gonzalez: The Dodgers are on pace for 101 wins, and the Padres are tracking toward 87. I'll give them each that many. The Dodgers and Giants will finish the regular season with the same record and will play Game 163 for the division title. The Padres will finish just behind the Reds for the second NL wild-card spot -- and the pressure will really be on them in 2022.
Schoenfield: I love Alden's idea of a Giants-Dodgers tiebreaker game, but I think the Dodgers will close strong and get to 104 wins while the Giants finish with 102. That's not as much fun, but this would be: a division series showdown. The two rivals have never met in a playoff series. To get there, the Giants defeat the Reds in the wild-card game as the Reds (89 wins) beat out the Padres (86 wins).