We're nearly two months into the 2021 MLB season, so it's not only a good idea to start giving more credence to the standings - but also a perfect time to examine the leaderboards. As always, there are the usual stars at the top and then some big surprises. Let's dig into some of those surprise leaders -- and some of the disappointments as well -- to determine which big starts are for real, and which are not.
Batting average leaders
1. Jesse Winker, Reds, .359
2. Nick Castellanos, Reds, .355
5. Yermin Mercedes, White Sox, .340
The two veteran Reds' outfielders have certainly been good hitters in their careers, but neither has hit .300 in a season, and both struggled to hit for average in the short 2020 season when Castellanos hit .225 and Winker hit .255. Great American Ballpark is a great home run park, but it's not necessarily a great park for hitting for average since the short power alleys cut down on the square footage in the outfield. Since the park opened in 2003, only 11 players have hit .300 and seven of those are named Joey Votto.
We've seen both players go on tears before, Castellanos most notably after he was traded to the Cubs in 2019 and hit .321/.356/.646 over 51 games. Winker hit .326 over his final 161 plate appearances in 2019 before going down with a season-ending cervical strain in August.
For Castellanos, the biggest improvement is he's cut down on his strikeout rate from 28.5% in 2020 to a career-best 19.6%. More balls in play means more hits! His two-strike approach has been terrific, as he's hitting .253/.330/.471 compared to his career average of .182 with two strikes. That two-strike average ranks eighth in the majors entering Thursday.
Winker's Statcast metrics aren't quite as impressive as Castellanos, with an expected batting average of .314 versus .328 for Castellanos, but the power metrics are legit with a hard-hit rate in the 91st percentile and an expected slugging percentage in the 96th percentile. Always a disciplined hitter, Winker is actually walking less, perhaps a reflection of a more aggressive hitting strategy he started deploying last season. He leads the majors with a .556 average with no strikes, going 20-for-36 with seven home runs.
While I can see the two Reds' hitters contending for the batting title all season, I'm much more skeptical on whether Mercedes, an unknown two months ago, can keep this going. He's a good contact hitter. Like Winker, he has thrived early in the count, hitting .545 with no strikes. But I went through and watched video of all of his hits recently, and let's say there are a lot of bloopers and bleeders falling for him. The Statcast numbers back up the eye test, showing him in the eighth percentile in hard-hit rate. He's in the first percentile in chase hit -- meaning he swings at everything. Unless you think he's some crazy combination of Ichiro Suzuki and Vladimir Guerrero Sr., I think that average is going to continue to fall. Maybe he can hit .300 since he has room to play with, but it wouldn't surprise me if he ends up under that mark.
Surprise strugglers
Francisco Lindor, Mets, .185
Eugenio Suarez, Reds, .149
Is 185 plate appearances a slump or something else? Lindor has been a little better of late with a .221 average over his past 19 games, but that followed an 0-for-26 stretch. He still isn't barreling up many baseballs, with easily the lowest line-drive rate of his career. There has been analysis suggesting Lindor has been opening his hips too early, leading to too many off-balanced swings, so maybe it's just a timing issue. But he also hit .258 last season. In fact, if you go back to September of 2019, he's hit .227 over 129 games.
Suarez hit .283 in 2018 and .271 with 49 home runs in 2019, but this is now two seasons where he's struggled to hit for average as he hit just .202 last season. The strikeouts are excessive, but he led the National League with 189 in 2019. What's weird is that his basic profile hasn't changed the past three seasons -- same average launch angle, same batted ball distribution (he's an extreme pull hitter), exact same chase rate (24%, 24%, 24.1% the past three seasons). Digging into the numbers, he was hit lucky in 2019 with an expected batting average of .243. He's basically turned into a right-handed version of Joey Gallo.
Home run leaders
1. Adolis Garcia, Rangers, 16
3. Shohei Ohtani, Angels, 15
6. Ryan McMahon, Rockies, 13
6. Mitch Haniger, Mariners, 13
Garcia had a couple cups of coffee with the Cardinals in 2018 and the Rangers in 2020 (he went 0-for-6 with four strikeouts). Like Mercedes, he's a 28-year-old rookie. He did hit 32 home runs in Triple-A in 2019, but it's easy to understand why the Cardinals sent him to the Rangers: He hit .253 with 159 strikeouts and 22 walks.
What Mercedes and Garcia are doing is almost unprecedented. Going back to 1947, only seven rookies 28 or older have hit 20 home runs, and one of those was Luke Easter, who had his entry to the majors delayed due to the sport's color barrier at the time. The others:
Christian Walker, 2019: 29 (age 28)
Bobby Darwin, 1972: 22 (age 29)
Mike Yastrzemski, 2019: 21 (age 28)
Garrett Jones, 2009: 21 (age 28)
Ryan Schimpf, 2016: 20 (age 28)
Orestes Destrade, 1993: 20 (age 31)
Only one 28-year-old rookie has qualified and hit .300 since 1947 -- Joey Wendle in 2018. It's interesting that several of these "late bloomers" have come in recent seasons.
Can Garcia keep it going? The power-speed athleticism is for real, with a hard-hit rate in the 95th percentile and a top sprint speed in the 80th percentile. It's certainly not unusual for a rookie (regardless of age) to contend for a home run title, given that Pete Alonso and Aaron Judge both recently led the majors in the category as rookies, and Jose Abreu hit 36 in 2014. I have to think his approach will eventually get the better of him, and he's not going to keep hitting .290, but 35 home runs is realistic.
As for the others on the leaderboard: Ohtani's raw power has never been in question, but after hitting .190 last season with seven home runs in 44 games, I don't think anybody saw this coming (at least until spring training, when he looked terrific). As far as leading the league in home runs, that's going to be hard to do given the occasional off days he gets to recover from pitching, but the ball just rockets off his bat. He's going to hit 30-plus for the first time.
McMahon had homered every 22.4 at-bats entering 2021, but is at one every 14 at-bats in 2021, including a three-homer game back in April. This looks like real improvement as McMahon's launch angle is way up, from 8.8 and 9.2 degrees in 2019 and 2020 to that homer-optimal 16.9 in 2021. Haniger is especially interesting since he missed all of 2020 and could be one of the top players available at the trade deadline. He's under team control through 2022, so the Mariners don't have to trade him, but with Jarred Kelenic now in the majors, Julio Rodriguez on the horizon and the 2021 club sinking fast, the Mariners should at least listen to offers.
Surprise strugglers
Christian Yelich, Brewers, 1
Keston Hiura, Brewers, 1
From the files of things even Nostradamus didn't predict, Eric Lauer has as many home runs on May 28 as Yelich and Hiura. There's an extenuating circumstance here with Yelich given the back injury and missed time, but he's still sitting on one home run in 53 at-bats and, frankly, there's no way of knowing whether we'll ever see the extraordinary 2018-19 Yelich ever again. Hiura is back after a short stint in the minors, but this feels like a player who has become too homer-happy, except now he's not even hitting home runs. He's only 24, so it's way too early to think he can't recover his 2019 level of play when he hit .303 as a rookie, but there are serious concerns about the approach and contact rate.
RBI leaders
2. Trey Mancini, Orioles, 42
8. Jared Walsh, Angels, 37
Mancini is the feel-good story of 2021, recovering from cancer and hitting just like he did in 2019, when he hit 35 home runs and drove in 97 runs. He might top that number this season thanks in large part to Cedric Mullins, who is doing a great job of getting on base from the leadoff spot and giving Mancini RBI opportunities. Mancini is another guy who could be on another team in July, given where the Orioles are in their rebuild and the desperation for teams to find offense. The A's and Rays could use a DH, Cleveland and the Brewers could use a first baseman, and the Red Sox could use either if they play J.D. Martinez in the outfield.
Speaking of late bloomers, Walsh is showing his explosion last September was for real, as he's hitting for average and power with a .327/.383/.588 line. That said, there are a lot of red flags in his metrics: An expected batting average of .266, a high chase rate, a sub-optimal launch angle for home runs (8.5 degrees) and a hard-hit rate in the 37th percentile. Statcast tracks "expected" home runs, and Walsh is at 7.7 compared to his actual total of 11, which suggests he's hit several "just enough" home runs. On the other hand, his max exit velocity is very high at 114.2 mph, so there is raw power here. I'm not sure he's a .300 hitter or 30-homer guy, but .275 with 28 home runs is a nice player.
Surprise strugglers
Bryce Harper, Phillies, 13
Harper, now on the IL with a bruised forearm, has hit well enough with a .274/.395/.489 line, although he had slumped badly after getting hit in the face in late April. Harper has hit .333 with runners on, but just .250 with runners in scoring position (7-for-28), and all seven of his home runs have been solo shots. Overall, the entire Phillies offense has been a disappointment. They rank 22nd in the majors in OPS and are scoring just 3.94 runs per game, which would be their lowest total since 1991.
ERA leaders
2. Carlos Rodon, White Sox, 1.29
4. Kevin Gausman, Giants, 1.53
5. Trevor Rogers, Marlins, 1.75
Short answer: I'm buying all three of these pitchers. That doesn't mean they're going to end the season with sub-2.00 ERAs, just that they shouldn't be considered flukes. Proving that predicting player performance is still anything but a perfect science, get this: The White Sox had non-tendered Rodon in the offseason before re-signing him. So any team could have signed him. Known for his great slider ever since the White Sox drafted him third overall in 2014, Rodon was never able to light up the strike zone consistently with strikes and then missed most of 2019 and 2020 after Tommy John surgery. Now he's throwing strikes, and the slider has been completely unhittable with batters just 1-for-52 against it. I checked the one hit off a slider. It was an infield hit by Hanser Alberto that went off the glove of Yoan Moncada and could have been ruled an error.
Less than two years ago, the Braves cut Gausman when he was 3-7 with a 6.19 ERA in August. Now he's 5-0 with a 1.53 ERA, a .169 average allowed and only one outing out of 10 starts where he's allowed more than one run. Baseball is weird. He's basically the same pitcher, four-seam fastball and splitter, but now he's a Cy Young contender. OK, a little more spin, so less vertical drop on his fastball and thus more swing-and-misses.
Rogers, like Rodon and Gausman, is another former first-round pick, the 13th pick in 2017 out of a New Mexico high school. He's already seventh on the all-time wins list among pitchers born in New Mexico and even higher among those who actually attended high school in the state. He's a big, 6-foot-5 power lefty who averaged 94.7 mph on his fastball and possesses an outstanding changeup. He's averaging 11 K's per nine and has allowed just three home runs. If he can improve his slider to give him a third plus weapon, watch out. He already looks like an above-average starter with a durable frame. It will be interesting to see how the Marlins handle his workload since they're in the NL East race, but he did throw 136 innings in the minors in 2019, so getting up to 160 or so seems reasonable.
Surprise strugglers
Luis Castillo, Reds, 7.61
Dylan Bundy, Angels, 6.50
Castillo has been one of the most talked about players in fantasy baseball as he was a high pick and a sleeper Cy Young candidate. His velocity was down early on, but that hasn't been the issue of late. Overall, his fastball is averaging 96.5. He's allowed five of his eight home runs on his sinker after not allowing any on it in 2020 and just four in 2019, so there has been speculation that he's been tipping his pitches, or at least tipping the two-seamer. There has also been a lot of bad luck on balls in play: a .328 average allowed versus an expected average of .272 (still not great). Some of that is the porous Cincinnati defense, but there's no reason he shouldn't pitch better going forward.
As for Bundy, why can't things ever seem to come together for the Angels? Ohtani is putting together a potential MVP-type season, Walsh has been great. But then Mike Trout gets hurt, Anthony Rendon has been injured and bad, and Bundy, their best starter last year, hasn't won a game. In his last three starts he's allowed 17 runs in 9.2 innings. Bundy's peripherals look good here. He's not giving up hard hits; his expected batting average is just .220, and his walk and strikeout rates are the same as last season. A lot of this appears to be a defense that has allowed the second highest batting average on balls in play. It seems like they should be a better defensive team than that, especially with Rendon, David Fletcher and Jose Iglesias in the infield, but the outfield defense hasn't been great. Maybe it's time to play Ohtani in right field, move Trout to left when he returns and let Justin Upton be the DH.
Batting average allowed leaders
3. Freddy Peralta, Brewers, .140
4. Brandon Woodruff, Brewers, .143
Throw in Corbin Burnes and his .153 average allowed and the Brewers have allowed a .207 average as a team -- which is only the third-lowest in the majors, behind the Padres and Dodgers. Burnes and Woodruff were good a season ago, so Peralta is the big surprise here given that he had pitched primarily out of the bullpen the past two seasons. Peralta had always been one of the most unique pitchers in the league, throwing his four-seam fastball more than 73% of the time each of his three seasons. What he's done in 2021, however, is basically exchange his curveball for a slider, and batters are hitting .141 against the slider. That pitch plays better in tandem with the fastball, so now batters are hitting just .140 against that pitch. He's averaging 13.8 K's per nine, his control can be wobbly at times and he doesn't pitch deep into games too often, but he's giving the Brewers a lethal 1-2-3 punch in the rotation.
Surprise strugglers
Kyle Hendricks, Cubs, .296
Kenta Maeda, Twins, .299
Allowing a .300 batting average and qualifying for the ERA title is a pretty rare "accomplishment." Only Patrick Corbin did it last year, only Ivan Nova in 2019, nobody in 2018. Maeda is currently on the IL with a right adductor strain, an injury related to the groin tightness he had felt in a couple outings. Perhaps that explains some of his early struggles after finishing second in the Cy Young voting in 2020. The highest season average he's allowed was .240 in 2018, so you have to believe his number improves when he does return.
Hendricks, however, has been hit hard, allowing a .293 expected batting average compared to his .243 career mark. His four-seamer has been getting tattooed (.433 average), and when a soft-tosser starts getting hit like this you get nervous. Still, he's been so good and so consistent you have to think his April (7.54) was just a bad month.