Here we are, three weeks into May, 11 days from a traditional measuring stick day in baseball -- Memorial Day. While it might be more trope than policy, the truism has always been that it is the first date during the long season when teams start to make qualitative judgments about their rosters -- and the rosters of their primary competitors.
What judgments, then, can we make about the American League East? Here is one: The rebuilding Baltimore Orioles appear to be headed for the cellar. But we kind of knew that already, did we not?
The Boston Red Sox have been clinging to first place in the division since the first week of the season. Clinging is the right word: The Red Sox needed a ninth-inning rally against Toronto on Thursday to beat the Blue Jays 8-7, and maintained a one-game advantage over the Rays in the division.
If Toronto had held on, things would be even tighter, but even so, the AL East is officially a four-team logjam.
Last season, because of the bloated playoff format, we actually had a division with four teams in the postseason: the NL Central. But now that we've reverted to the familiar 10-team format, someone in the AL East is going to miss out.
More than a quarter of the way through the season, we know diddly-squat about how this division race is going to play out. Though all four contenders are tight in the standings, they've taken different paths to get to the same place. Does that say anything about where they might be going?
Boston Red Sox
The perennially strong Red Sox are coming off a disastrous 2020 season in which they posted their worst winning percentage since the 1960s. While there figured to be some regression, most odds and projection systems saw Boston as a middling club that figured to slot as the fourth-best team in a strong division.
Boston set that expectation on its proverbial ear early in the season, rising to first place by the end of the first week and sticking there. That almost ended Thursday, but as of now, the Red Sox have been sole possessors of the top spot since they grabbed it on April 10.
Boston is 10-8 in May with a plus-9 run differential, so we're not talking collapse here. Instead, the Red Sox have played like the team they projected to be while their competitors in the East have picked things up.
The offense remains elite, ranking third in the majors in OPS this month. But the run prevention part of the equation, which is what held back Boston's preseason forecast, has regressed to expectation after a strong start to the campaign. The Red Sox rank 17th in runs allowed per game this month and 21st in opposing OPS.
The key question for the next few weeks: Can the Red Sox continue to tread water until Chris Sale returns in a few weeks? If not, the Red Sox might have to start bringing on some additional arms to keep things stable.
Tampa Bay's trajectory has been the flip side of that of the Red Sox. The defending AL champs had a sluggish start to the season, losing eight of their first 14 games. But since May Day, the Rays have been one of baseball's hottest teams.
Tampa Bay is 13-5 this month, tied with the Yankees for the best May mark in baseball, with MLB's top run differential during that span. The Rays have been getting it done on both sides of the ball, ranking third in runs per game and runs allowed per game during May.
As you'd expect with the Rays, it's been a collective effort. Still, there have been some standouts. Randy Arozarena has of late started to resemble the guy who looked like he reinvented baseball last October. Rotation ace Tyler Glasnow has blossomed into a leading Cy Young candidate.
But the thing that should worry AL East competitors most about the Rays: They have lots more where that came from. The "that" in that cliché refers to high-level, major-league-ready young talent.
That's true in terms of pitchers. It's also true of baseball's top prospect, 20-year-old Wander Franco, who has an .867 OPS for the Durham Bulls, Tampa Bay's top minor league affiliate. The Rays might keep getting better as the season progresses without swinging any kind of major trade.
At 11-7, Toronto is two games behind the May pace set by the Rays and Yankees. Like Boston, the Blue Jays have gotten it done with offense. Toronto is third in runs per game this month and sixth for the season as a whole. And let us remember: The Jays have not played a game on their actual home field since Sept. 22, 2019.
What excites you about the Blue Jays is who is driving the high-octane offense. Toronto's top two hitters in total bases this season are Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, two foundation pieces for this franchise. Guerrero has been fantastic, with an early OPS well over 1.000. Key offseason pickup Marcus Semien has recovered from a lackluster start to post an OPS over 1.100 so far this month.
All of this has happened even though the Blue Jays have gotten just four games and three hits from prized free-agent signee George Springer.
All this said: Can the Blue Jays pitch well enough to differentiate themselves in a division full of potent offenses? Other than Hyun Jin Ryu, Toronto's starting pitching this month has been fairly abysmal, ranking 26th with a 5.04 rotation ERA.
Maybe touted prospect Nate Pearson can help down the line. But for now, the Jays need veterans Steven Matz, Robbie Ray and Ross Stripling to pick up the pace -- and soon. Toronto is headed into a key early-season four-game series against the Rays beginning Friday.
New York entered the season as the general favorite to win the American League, but started off 6-11. Panic and chaos ensued. And the schadenfreude cult chased after the Yankees with shovels, ready to bury their season in dirt. Since then, New York is 19-8.
This month, the high-risk Yankees rotation we wrote so much about before the season has been on point. Gerrit Cole continues to put up a strong argument against the "Jake deGrom is baseball's best pitcher" crowd.
Corey Kluber, author of baseball's latest no-hitter, and Domingo German have been even better than Cole this month. Jameson Taillon has been inconsistent with his command but has a strong strikeout rate and can hope to gain consistency as he continues to distance himself from his long injury rehab. And don't forget about the eventual return of Luis Severino.
The Yankees have the worst run differential among the division's four contenders, largely because of an offense that continues to underachieve, particularly at Yankee Stadium. Does anyone really expect that state of affairs to last all season?
As with each of the other three teams logjammed in the East, there are plenty of reasons to think that the Yankees have not yet been the best version of themselves. And if those reasons prove to be true for each club in this quartet, a race that we still know very little about is only going to gain in intrigue as we advance into summer.