Baseball prospect watchers and general baseball fans don't like to just read a list and leave it at that. They always want the sleeper who just missed the list, or the guy most likely to shoot up the list by the end of the year. It could be to grab a player for their fantasy teams, buy a rookie card, or just be the most knowledgeable fan, but it's become clear to me a simple ordinal list has its limits.
The classes of the 2020 draft and the 2019 and 2020 international signing periods haven't played an official pro game yet, and the 2019 draft class had only a summer to whet our appetite. That means there's an unprecedented number of prospects in the same limited-information or small-sample-size buckets.
So, to celebrate the much overdue opening of the 2021 minor league season, I'll list a bunch of prospects, presented in groups, who I'm most interested in closely tracking to begin the season.
This list is focused mostly on players from the above classes but will have a draft leaning because I'm not including players who are in extended spring training (i.e., not opening the season in Triple-A, Double-A, high-A or low-A, which are all starting this week) and won't play an official pro game until the summer, in a short-season league. This is why an international signee like New York Yankees outfielder Jasson Dominguez isn't listed, as are many others, though they could always impress in extended spring training and make a full-season club as soon as a few weeks from now.
Almost ready for the majors
Wander Franco, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Jarred Kelenic, OF, Seattle Mariners
MacKenzie Gore, LHP, San Diego Padres
Brandon Marsh, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Matt Manning, RHP, Detroit Tigers
The most anticipated minor league season debuts will come from top prospects who have yet to make their big league debuts, as they could be called up within a few weeks to a few months. None of these players has played in Triple-A yet, but all are likely to make a big league debut sometime this season, fingers crossed for health, and all are set to start the season in Triple-A. (Marsh will have to wait for a shoulder issue to be sorted out.)
The past two No. 1 overall picks
Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles
Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers
These are easy names for even casual fans to pull, but Torkelson hasn't played a pro game and Rutschman has played 12 games in a full-season league, so it's really been impossible to judge the early returns on these two. All the buzz is positive, and they could move quickly on rebuilding clubs that need them, but they have almost no shot to make the big leagues this year. These two naturally lead into the next group.
The potential stars of next winter's top 100
C.J. Abrams, SS, San Diego Padres
Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals
Marco Luciano, 3B, San Francisco Giants
Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners
Riley Greene, OF, Detroit Tigers
Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
These are basically the prospects with little to no chance to play months in the big leagues this year (Witt has a small chance) who are currently in my top 25 rankings. I said in the top 100 that Greene and Rodriguez are my projected biggest movers of this group, but that's also partly because they are at the bottom of the group.
On the top 100, under-the-radar improvement
Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers
Francisco Alvarez, C, New York Mets
Carroll could've gone into the prior group, but he was the 16th overall pick two summers ago and hasn't played a full-season-league game yet. He's ranked this high because of his growth last season playing mostly against his teammates. There are some Kelenic vibes to his game (he's a speedier version with less power), so he's a popular pick to continue rising into next winter's lists, but he doesn't have the same prospect pedigree or performance as the prior group.
Jung's big question out of college was if he could lift and pull the ball in games, and signs now point to yes, but we need to see it in more competitive games. Alvarez simply needs more than 42 career games at rookie ball for me to figure out confidently where he fits in a top 100. He's at No. 82 until we get that.
Just missed the top 100 (hitters)
Noelvi Marte, SS, Seattle Mariners
Jeremy Pena, SS, Houston Astros
Gunnar Henderson, SS, Baltimore Orioles
As for the first players to jump onto the top 100, these are some of your best bets. Marte has some Hanley Ramirez vibes but hasn't been out of rookie ball yet, so we're looking for some key indicators about how his tools will play against better pitching. Pena had a breakout 2019 season and seemed on track for a 2020 MLB debut, but still hasn't played an official game in Double-A or Triple-A, so he's back for more seasoning. Henderson checked a lot of potential breakout boxes entering the 2020 season, and now a strong low-A campaign would likely land him on a top 100.
Just missed the top 100 (pitchers)
Matt Canterino, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Hunter Brown, RHP, Houston Astros
George Kirby, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Slade Cecconi, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Alek Manoah, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Seth Johnson, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Alec Marsh, RHP, Kansas City Royals
Cole Winn, RHP, Texas Rangers
This list is longer because it's simply easier for a pitcher to show growth in less competitive environments, as the hitters are secondary to the evaluation. Canterino's velocity spiked and he added a plus changeup. Kirby is now regularly hitting 100 mph-plus. Cecconi is sitting in the upper 90s. Johnson's stuff took a step forward. Manoah dominated in spring training and could make his MLB debut this year. Marsh is now sitting in the mid-90s. Brown looks like the non-Division I-college find of the 2019 draft. Winn appears to have regained (if not improved upon) his mid-first-round form from before the 2018 draft.
Loud pro debuts post-2019 draft, but need to keep it up
Brenton Doyle, OF, Colorado Rockies
Peyton Burdick, OF, Miami Marlins
Michael Harris, OF, Atlanta Braves
Doyle (129th overall), Burdick (82nd) and Harris (98th) all outperformed their draft position in the summer after being drafted in 2019, with team reevaluations at the end of the year concluding that all of them went at least a round later than they should have. A strong 2020 first half would've been enough sample size to move each of them onto a top 100, but that never happened, despite the positive buzz continuing through the 2020 season.
Harris is still just 20, the best prospect of the group, and has a real shot to land in the middle of the next year's top 100. Burdick is 24 and Doyle will soon be 23, with little amateur pedigree, so they have to keep performing, likely at multiple levels this year.
2020 draftees with arrows pointing up
Tyler Soderstrom, C, Oakland A's
Austin Wells, C, New York Yankees
Jordan Walker, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
Evan Carter, OF, Texas Rangers
Bobby Miller, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Kyle Harrison, LHP, San Francisco Giants
These players have shown strong early returns from last summer's draft, mostly from playing games versus other clubs in the instructional league last fall, the most competitive environment most 2020 draftees could find. Soderstrom might have the most positive buzz of anyone in the 2020 class as an offense-oriented catcher with a bat equal to that of any prep hitter in his draft class. Wells is a power-and-patience type who would normally be seen as a first baseman but should be good enough behind the plate in an automatic-strike-calling future.
Walker's big raw power played better in games than some expected. Carter came out of nowhere to be a second-round pick, then raked at fall instructional league against older competition. Miller has plus stuff and he's a pitcher for the Dodgers, so people tend to take the over. Harrison has had a velo spike and was one of the best pitchability types in his class before that.
Enormous upside, could pop at any time
Ezequiel Duran, 2B, New York Yankees
Greg Jones, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Luis Matos, OF, San Francisco Giants
Andy Pages, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Josh Mears, OF, San Diego Padres
Blake Walston, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Matt Allan, RHP, New York Mets
Luis Medina, RHP, New York Yankees
Clayton Beeter, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Here's the catch-all list of other upside types to keep an eye on for an early-season statistical breakout because the tools are very obvious. Duran is a powerful hitter who just needs to make progress with contact. Jones is a fantastic athlete who can play any position but needs a bulk of pro performance to move up. Matos has rare bat speed and is making strides with his approach. Pages has elite power-hitting upside but hasn't gotten out of rookie ball yet.
Mears might have the most raw power of the bunch but is still raw. Walston has Cole Hamels vibes and potential for pluses across the board. Allan has absurd stuff if he can figure out how to show that while starting. Medina might have two 70-grade pitches but just needs to progress with his feel. Beeter might have two 80-grade pitches but has almost no high-level track record.