Is there a sore spot on the team you root for that the club just never seems to fully heal?
Growing up, my team was the Kansas City Royals, and the position that always drove me mad was shortstop. I am just barely old enough to remember the latter days of the beloved Freddie Patek as the Royals' shortstop, but his best days were before I had reached the age of sports consciousness.
After that came U.L. Washington, and I actually have a picture on the wall of my office of me as a young lad standing on the fake turf at Royals Stadium with U.L.'s arm around my shoulders. And yes, U.L. has a toothpick in his mouth in the picture. Unfortunately, Washington is more remembered for his toothpicks than his performance. After that ...
Once I recovered from flashbacks involving the Rey Sanchez-Neifi Perez-Angel Berroa dynasty, I wondered: Have the Royals really been that bad at solving the shortstop position? Has it even been their biggest problem area?
These are questions a fan of any team could ask. Yes, even a spoiled Los Angeles Dodgers fan. It's also a question that can be poked at analytically, so I decided to do so. The foundational question is this: What positions on what teams have been the hardest to fill in terms of finding a sustainable, multiseason solution? And how is each team addressing that need so far in 2021?
The answer for your team might surprise you. Or maybe not. After all, you're a fan.
Teams are ranked by "hole score," which is explained below.
1. Chicago Cubs
Position: Center field (hole score: 38)
Last green: Never (0% green since 1969)
Not-so-brief history: For years, a go-to question about the Cubs was about why they had not been able to find a long-term successor to Ron Santo at the hot corner. Then Aramis Ramirez arrived and now Kris Bryant is around. The question no longer has any relevance. Well, according to this system, it was the wrong question to be asking all along. Center field has been the spot the Cubs have not been able to fill, and that's a literal statement. It's the only spot on any team that flashes red for the entire divisional era.
For this first entry, I'll go through the history in a little more detail so you can understand the system a little better. The system begins with 1969, and the Cubs' regular center fielder in that most famous of disappointing Chicago seasons was Don Young, who started 88 games in center and had an overall bWAR of 0.9 in what turned out to be his only full season as a big leaguer. Chicago used a number of others at the position in 1969, including Jim Qualls, Oscar Gamble and Adolfo Phillips. The Cubs' overall bWAR at the position was minus-0.4, which after a couple of translations generates a scout score of 35. In the hole score system, that's worth two points. The Cubs start two points in the hole, so to speak.
Over the years, the Cubs didn't get to an average scout score (50) in center field until 1976, the last year during which Rick Monday was the regular in Chicago. By then, the Cubs were 15 points in the hole, so Monday's 4.4 bWAR season certainly helped. But Monday, rarely a help on defense, played a lot of first base in 1976 while a motley crew rotated as replacements in center, so the Cubs still managed to have just 3.1 bWAR overall at the position, ranking 12th of the 26 teams. That's why the scout score still landed in the average bucket -- how the Cubs compared to the other teams in the majors at the position is the key. So while the Cubs reduced their center field hole score in 1976, it barely made a dent. Then Monday was gone and in 1977, the Cubs were below replacement in center.
That's been the story for the Cubs. Two straight above-average seasons resets your hole score, but the Cubs have never managed to do that. They got good seasons from players like Brian McRae in the 1990s, one decent campaign from Corey Patterson in 2004, Marlon Byrd's 2010 showing and the excellent season from Dexter Fowler during the Cubs' title season in 2016, during which Chicago's scout score in center was 55. They just have never been able to string together two straight seasons. They have not been able to find a sustainable solution for the position. That's how the system works.
2021 snapshot: The quest continues. The Cubs have gotten roughly replacement level production during the early going from Ian Happ and Jake Marisnick. Neither are really an everyday solution for center field. Longer term, Brennen Davis is one of the Cubs' top prospects, though he may not stick as a center fielder.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates
Position: Right field (hole score: 35)
Last green: 1991 (25% green since 1969)
Brief history: During the 1960s and 70s, when Roberto Clemente and Dave Parker manned right field for the Pirates, this was one of baseball's glamor positions. Not so much any longer. There was a brief flash in the early 1990s that reset the post-Parker hole score, when Pittsburgh featured a superstar outfield of Barry Bonds, Andy Van Slyke and, in right, Bobby Bonilla. But Bonilla moved around a lot between positions and then signed with the Mets, who are still paying him today. The position was mostly a revolving door until ...
2021 snapshot: Gregory Polanco took over as the Pirates' regular in right field in 2014, making the spot one with a high degree of tenure across the majors. The problem is that, at least in terms of the bWAR totals that feed the system, the end product has been more stable than impactful. Polanco has topped 2.0 bWAR just twice and is at 5.2 for his career. He'll be a free agent after this season. It's probably past time to turn over the position.
3. Washington Nationals
Position: Catcher (hole score: 33)
Last green: 1984 (15% green since 1969)
Brief history: The franchise's problems behind the plate followed the team down from Montreal, where the problem of replacing Gary Carter began after he left for the Mets in 1985. Since then, the Expos/Nationals' most productive catcher has been Wilson Ramos.
2021 snapshot: This is not an especially glorious time for catchers. While the Nats have deployed a number of veteran stopgap types the past couple of years, last season Kurt Suzuki and Yan Gomes actually propelled Washington to a No. 8 MLB ranking in catcher bWAR, which translates to an above-average (55) scout score. That means if Washington can repeat that, it will reset its score. Throw a parade! In the early going of 2021, the Nats are in the middle of the pack.
4. San Diego Padres
Position: Starting pitchers (hole score: 32)
Last green: 1998 (17% green since 1969)
Brief history: This one kind of surprised me, though perhaps it should not have. The Padres have fielded a lot of dreadful teams over the decades, and dreadful teams generally do not have good starting pitchers. There have obviously been some outstanding individual starters during that time, but for this piece, we're rating rotations and bullpens as units. A typical illustration of how this score has built up revolves around the Padres' last pennant-winning season of 1998. That year, led by Kevin Brown and Joey Hamilton, San Diego ranked third in the majors in starting bWAR, good for a 60 scout score. But that was Brown's only season in San Diego. The Padres were at 40 for their rotation the year before, and back at 40 the year after.
2021 snapshot: Now for the good news: The ultra-talented Padres are loaded with pitching, both in terms of veterans and prospects. Over the past three years, San Diego's rotation scout score has climbed from 25 to 40 to 55 last season. This season's group looks every bit as strong as 2020, so the Pads are expected to turn green and reset their hole score. From 1990 to 1998, the Padres were green in seven of nine seasons. They appear to be on the verge of a similar era.
5. Colorado Rockies
Position: Catcher (hole score: 24)
Last green: Never (0% green since 1969)
Brief history: The golden era of Rockies catching was during the years from 2008 to 2011, when Chris Iannetta was largely responsible for four straight scout scores of 50. Alas, that's not enough to reset the hole score system, and since then, this spot has mostly been a festering wound. Over the past four years, the Rockies' scout scores have been 35, 35, 40 and 30.
2021 snapshot: The good news is that the 2021 Rockies are so full of holes that the catching position doesn't stand out that much as you survey their situation. But they seem likely to land in the bottom third of the majors at catcher once again.
6. Miami Marlins
Position: First base (hole score: 23)
Last green: Never (0% green since 1969)
Brief history: During the early 2000s, when Derrek Lee manned first base for the Marlins, he came really close to giving them a little green in the first base history ledger of Miami. Alas, he didn't quite get there, saving his best seasons for his time with the Cubs. Other than Lee, it's mostly been a revolving door at the position for the Marlins.
2021 snapshot: There's hope. For now, the Marlins have a couple of dependable 30-somethings taking most of the time at first in Jesus Aguilar and Garrett Cooper. You could do worse, but they aren't the sustainable kind of standouts that this system seeks to identify. But one of the Marlins' better prospects is a first baseman -- Lewin Diaz, who got some big league time last season and is on the current 40-man roster. Maybe better days lie ahead.
7. Kansas City Royals
Position: Right field (hole score: 22)
Last green: 2000 (2% green since 1969)
Brief history: That's right -- for all of my consternation over the Royals' shortstop history, right field has actually been an even more persistent tender spot. While I had not realized that, I was also not the least surprised once I thought about it because this position has always been one of frequent turnover for the Royals. Al Cowens put up 5.3 bWAR as K.C.'s primary right fielder in 1977, but that was an outlier performance for him, and he was a Mariner by 1979. The 1985 champs featured a non-elite platoon of Darryl Motley and Pat Sheridan. The 2014-2015 pennant winners both featured one-year stopgaps in Nori Aoki and Alex Rios. Jermaine Dye was terrific for the Royals for a couple of years, resulting in K.C.'s last green season in right. But since Dye, it's mostly been a slog, with eight seasons of right field scout scores under 40 since 2000.
2021 snapshot: One of the Royals' impact hitters over the past couple of years is a nominal right fielder -- Jorge Soler -- but he remains a player K.C. would prefer to use as a DH if it can swing it in conjunction with the rest of the roster. Rookie Kyle Isbel has gotten the most time at the spot so far in 2021, but his long-term position may be center field. The search goes on.
8. Philadelphia Phillies
Position: Third base (hole score: 21)
Last green: 2004 (46% green since 1969)
Brief history: The third base spot for the Phillies was one of the more famous positions in baseball for much of recent baseball history. That began of course with Mike Schmidt, the consensus best ever at the position, but Scott Rolen was also an elite player for the Phils at the hot corner and so too was Dave Hollins, at least for a couple of years. The Phillies have been flailing at the hot corner since a strong campaign from David Bell in 2004.
2021 snapshot: Could be turning green. The Phillies landed a 50 scout score in 2020, the debut season for top prospect Alec Bohm. Bohm isn't off to a great start in 2021, but he seems like the real deal with the bat. The question is the glove. If Bohm can hold up defensively, the Phillies shouldn't have any more worries about third base for the foreseeable future. But if not, Bohm could end up elsewhere sooner rather than later in what figures to be a world with a universal DH.
9. Houston Astros
Position: Catcher (hole score: 21)
Last green: 1971 (4% green since 1969)
Brief history: The Astros have mostly deployed defense-first catchers who don't hit enough to shine in the bWAR framework during the divisional era, and that remains the case today. There was one brief exception: Hall of Famer Craig Biggio, who caught more games for Houston than anyone during the period from 1988 to 1991. With catcher as his primary position, Biggio had an OPS+ of 114 in 1989 and 113 in 1991. In 1990, he slumped to 93 and spent a significant chunk of time in the outfield. The Astros' scout scores at catcher those years went from 55 in 1989, to 40 in 1990, to 65 in 1991. That down season in the middle kept the Astros from turning green at catcher, and they haven't gotten close since. After 1991, as we all know, Biggio moved to second base and was on his way to Cooperstown.
2021 snapshot: The Astros continue to lean on framing, catch-and-throw veterans. Martin Maldonado agreed to a contract extension recently that will take him through 2022.
10. Detroit Tigers
Position: Relief pitchers (hole score: 18)
Last green: 1990 (29% green since 1969)
Brief history: For the teams that ended up with bullpens as their biggest hole, it's hard to pinpoint any one player or handful of players. That's especially true since we're measuring bullpens as a unit, rather than just closers. It's hard to build a good bullpen, but it seems to me that it's equally hard to fail to build a good one year after year after year. The Tigers were mostly strong overall for a full decade beginning with 2006, a span that included two pennants, but that was despite -- and not because of -- their relief work. The starting rotations for those teams were their foundation, but certainly there were some good relief seasons mixed in as well. The fireballing Joel Zumaya will always be one of the Tigers I remember most from the early part of that era. His best season was for the 2006 AL champs, when Detroit finished 10th in relief bWAR. They haven't ranked that high in any season since.
2021 snapshot: For me, persistently bad bullpen performance in modern-day baseball is more a reflection of the front office than anything. The Tigers entered the weekend dead last in relief bWAR, and if the rebuilding Detroit is eventually going to rejoin the ranks of contenders, this is a problem it is going to have to solve.
11. Arizona Diamondbacks
Position: Relief pitchers (hole score: 17)
Last green: 2003 (13% green since 1969)
Brief history: The best season in the brief history of the Arizona bullpen was 2003, when the Snakes ranked third in the majors with 8.2 bWAR. Matt Mantei was the closer for that club. The next two years, Arizona ranked 29th and 30th. This, in a nutshell, is the nature of bullpen construction. Arizona has ranked in the bottom half of the majors each season since 2009 with the exception of 2017, when it finished 11th. That was Archie Bradley's best season for Arizona, when he was pitching in front of ageless closer Fernando Rodney.
2021 snapshot: Arizona added some veterans to the mix over the winter like Joakim Soria, Chris Devenski and Anthony Swarzak. Swarzak was DFA'd a week ago. Devenski has been away from the team for personal reasons. Soria has been limited to a single outing because of a calf strain. The D-backs look headed for another bottom-third finish in the bullpen rankings.
12. Tampa Bay Rays
Position: Catcher (hole score: 17)
Last green: 1999 (4% green since 1969)
Brief history: When the Rays won their first pennant in 2008, Dioner Navarro was in the midst of a three-year run as Tampa Bay's regular backstop. Since then, only Wilson Ramos (2017-18) has held the honor for two seasons in a row. The career leader in bWAR among primary catchers for the Rays is Toby Hall -- with 5.7. The Rays did have a green season in 1999, when John Flaherty and Mike DiFelice were a productive combo. But that was the Rays' second year of existence, and so they hadn't had a chance to build up a lot of negative history.
2021 snapshot: It's safe to say that what the Rays value from their catchers is not what bWAR values from catchers, so they haven't ranked highly at this position even while winning at a high level overall. Mike Zunino is back for a third season with the club after being limited to 28 games a season ago. This time he is backed up by young Francisco Mejia, who has populated prospect lists in recent years. The Rays are ranked ninth (by bWAR) at this position in the early going.
13. San Francisco Giants
Position: Center field (hole score: 15)
Last green: 1991 (20% green since 1969)
Brief history: What in the name of Willie Mays? Mays was still around keeping the Giants in the green when the period this system evaluates began. In 1972, he was traded to the Mets, and the Giants' struggles at his old position began. Mays' immediate replacement was Garry Maddox, who had a huge season in 1973 for the Giants but is mostly remembered for being a perennial Gold Glover for the outstanding Phillies teams of the late '70s and early '80s. There was a strong stretch of green during the late '80s, mostly because of Brett Butler. Since then, it has been rotating mediocrity.
2021 snapshot: Giants center fielders are around replacement level so far this season, with Austin Slater and converted infielder Mauricio Dubon getting most of the playing time. Last season, with Mike Yastrzemski sharing the spot with Dubon, the Giants scored a 55, so if they can rebound from the slow start, they can reset their hole score. Even if they don't, a long-term solution could be near if prospect Heliot Ramos can handle the position defensively. For what it's worth, the Giants played him more often on the corners during spring training.
14. Chicago White Sox
Position: Center field (hole score: 14)
Last green: 2005 (23% green since 1969)
Brief history: The White Sox enjoyed a nice six-year run in the green from 1978 to 1983, with Chet Lemon and Rudy Law holding down the position, including for the first five seasons of Tony La Russa's first stint on the South Side. Lance Johnson plugged the hole for a time in the 1990s, but after an up-and-down period, the center field hole reopened after back-to-back strong seasons from Aaron Rowand, the last of which was Chicago's championship season of 2005.
2021 snapshot: The White Sox scored a 55 last season, ranking sixth in center field bWAR, putting them halfway along in resetting their hole score. They have every reason to think they'll turn green this year after the sophomore season of Luis Robert is in the books. It may stay green for a long, long time.
15. New York Mets
Position: Catcher (hole score: 14)
Last green: 2003 (37% green since 1969)
Brief history: The Mets once enjoyed a great deal of stability behind the plate, with Jerry Grote, John Stearns, Gary Carter, Todd Hundley and Mike Piazza all enjoying extended reigns as regulars. Since Piazza departed in 2002, no one has held the spot for more than two straight seasons. Piazza's 24.6 bWAR as a primary catcher between 1998 and 2005 is the Mets' all-time mark.
2021 snapshot: James McCann is in the early stages of the first season of a four-year deal he signed during the offseason with the Mets to fill this hole. He's at replacement level early, but it's only April, and the Mets' schedule has been full of starts and stops because of numerous postponements.
16. Milwaukee Brewers
Position: Shortstop (hole score: 13)
Last green: 2009 (29% green since 1969)
Brief history: Now that we are in the middle of the pack of these rankings, we're getting into teams that have done a good job of preventing positional holes from festering over a long period of time. The Brewers had to think they'd accomplished that very thing at shortstop after 2017, when they finished 11th in shortstop bWAR with 22-year-old Orlando Arcia playing in 152 games. Arcia backslid badly at the plate after that and early this season; he was dealt to Atlanta and now resides at the Braves' alternate site camp. The Brewers enjoyed a long run of green in the late '70s and early '80s with Robin Yount at shortstop and other good multiyear stretches in the 1990s (Jose Valentin and Mark Loretta) and the late 2000s (mostly J.J. Hardy).
2021 snapshot: With Arcia gone, the position now belongs to Luis Urias, who came up through a Padres system loaded with shortstops. He is hitting .167 over 18 games, albeit with enough walks and extra-base hits to keep his overall showing at replacement level. Urias, who turns 24 in June, has never played a full season in the bigs, so it'll be a while before we know whether he pans out.
17. Texas Rangers
Position: First base (hole score: 13)
Last green: 2007 (60% green since 1969)
Brief history: The Rangers had a nice progression going at first base with Rafael Palmeiro giving way to Will Clark for five seasons and retaking first base when Clark left. Then he was followed by a strong half-decade from Mark Teixeira. Texas was green at this position for 22 straight seasons beginning with 1986. Since then, it has been a series of players who had their best seasons elsewhere: Chris Davis, Justin Smoak, Mitch Moreland, Cecil Fielder and Mike Napoli. Ronald Guzman has been the recent starter but has barely kept his nose above replacement level.
2021 snapshot: This season has seen some promising signs for a first base revival in Arlington thanks to the arrival of former Rays prospect Nate Lowe. Lowe, 25, is off to an uneven start, but has five homers, 18 RBIs and a 134 OPS+. His raw power is impressive.
18. Seattle Mariners
Position: 1B (hole score: 13)
Last green: 2006 (16% green since 1969)
Brief history: The Mariners had some high points even during the long, ugly early years of the franchise from first basemen, with Bruce Bochte and Alvin Davis shining at various times. The strong Seattle clubs of the mid-1990s featured future Yankee Tino Martinez. And the M's had a nice run at the spot from John Olerud and even a couple of good years from Richie Sexson, before the latter lost his way. The first basemen since then have been largely forgettable.
2021 snapshot: Evan White is in his second season as the Mariners' regular first baseman and qualifies as a bona fide hope to fill the hole. He has already won a Gold Glove, doing so in his rookie season, but he also hit just .176 and is at .186 in the early going of 2021. With team options at the end of his contract that could keep him in Seattle through 2028, White might be the team's answer at first base. But he's got to hit better than this, no matter how slick he is with the glove.
19. Cincinnati Reds
Position: Center field (hole score: 11)
Last green: 2005 (35% green since 1969)
Brief history: While the Reds' version of Ken Griffey Jr. wasn't as dynamic as the version who starred for the Mariners, he managed to keep Cincinnati green at the position a few times during his career. The spot has mostly been a black hole since then. Billy Hamilton was the regular for five years and had a couple of nice seasons, but never hit well enough to keep the Reds from looking elsewhere. Thus center field stands as the Reds' sore spot, filling a vacancy created by the sudden turnaround of the once-woeful Cincinnati starting pitching over the past two years. The rotation posted scout scores of 35, 35, 25 and 30 from 2015 to 2018. The last two seasons, it has been 60.
2021 snapshot: Converted infielder Nick Senzel is in his third season of trying to fill the shoes once worn by Cesar Geronimo, Eric Davis and Vada Pinson, not to mention Gus Bell, the grandfather of current Reds manager David Bell. A recent top prospect, Senzel has all the tools to end Cincinnati's center field slump, but he has struggled to stay healthy and is hitting .202 since the start of last season.
20. Baltimore Orioles
Position: Starting pitchers (hole score: 11)
Last green: 1999 (35% green since 1969)
Brief history: There was certainly a time when the idea of the Orioles' rotation being an ongoing problem would have sounded preposterous. Led by Jim Palmer, Mike Cuellar, Mike Boddicker and many others, Orioles starters were in the green every season from 1969 to 1984. There was a shorter run of excellence from 1995 to 1999 that featured standouts like Mike Mussina and Scott Erickson. It has been a struggle since, even for the good teams of recent vintage under Buck Showalter, most of which featured high-powered bullpens and average-ish rotations.
2021 snapshot: Baltimore has started to transition toward some younger starters, but there is no real reason to think its run of below-average rotations will end this season. We'll have to see what the Orioles' system yields in the seasons to come.
21. Atlanta Braves
Position: Third base (hole score: 9)
Last green: 2013 (42% green since 1969)
Brief history: As we reach the last third of our rankings, you see the hole scores down to single digits. With a single All-Star-caliber season capable of chopping anywhere from four to seven points from a team's hole score, shortfalls of that level can be plugged pretty fast. For the Braves, third base was safely green for more than two decades during the time of Chipper Jones, save for a lapse in the early 2000s, when they tried to shift Jones to the outfield and play Vinny Castilla at the hot corner. It's been a major problem position since then, save for Josh Donaldson's standout 2019 campaign. Donaldson left for the Twins via free agency after that.
2021 snapshot: Prospect Austin Riley has yet to seize third base in the aftermath of Donaldson's departure. The Braves finished last in bWAR at third last season despite winning the NL East. Riley's career numbers are now based on 575 plate appearances, which roughly corresponds to a full season. He has hit .233/.299/.437 with 28 homers and 174 strikeouts, while putting up minus-6 defensive runs saved at third. He's still only 24, but then again, Atlanta is trying to maximize a window of contention that remains wide open and can't be overly patient.
22. Boston Red Sox
Position: Third base (hole score: 9)
Last green: 2012 (60% green since 1969)
Brief history: Rico Petrocelli, Carney Lansford, Wade Boggs, Tim Naehring, Bill Mueller, Mike Lowell -- third base has been a factory line of excellence over the decades for the Red Sox. Until recent years, that is. And yet ...
2021 snapshot: There is little worry about Boston's hot corner because Rafael Devers is on hand, just 24 years old, and already established as a player capable of putting up All-Star numbers. At age 22, Devers led the American League in doubles (54) and total bases (359) in 2019. At the same time, he has been inconsistent at the plate from season to season, and consistently poor in the field. Devers can't turn the position green this year, but you have to like his chances to do so in the years ahead.
23. Minnesota Twins
Position: Starting pitchers (hole score: 9)
Last green: 2011 (54% green since 1969)
Brief history: The Terry Ryan-built rosters of the 2000s in Minnesota featured pitch-to-contact hurlers like Brad Radke and Kyle Lohse, with the occasional sprinkling of a burner like Johan Santana or Francisco Liriano. It worked: The Twins' rotation was green each season from 1999 to 2011. There was a steep drop-off after that, as Minnesota compiled 10 hole points by 2017. They've been average since then, so things haven't gotten worse, but the position has yet to turn green despite the Twins' overall team success.
2021 snapshot: The Twins' rotation looks elite this season, with Michael Pineda looking reborn and Jose Berrios in the early stages of building a Cy Young résumé. Kenta Maeda was a Cy Young contender last season. There is a depth of young arms in the system and stable veterans in the back half of the rotation. Minnesota's rotation can't go green in 2021, but the prospects for doing so by next season look promising.
24. Los Angeles Angels
Position: Left field (hole score: 7)
Last green: 2014 (25% green since 1969)
Brief history: First of all, let's acknowledge that the conceit of this entire endeavor is kind of mean-spirited. I could easily have inverted the hole score points system and called it something like "foundation points" to investigate positions at which teams are consistently strong. Then I could point out how the Angels have been green in center field in all but seven seasons since 1985, usually finding productive solutions even before Mike Trout arrived a decade ago. That's a nice story! But instead, we'll focus on left field, which overtook the Angels' rotation as the club's biggest hole on the basis of 2020 results. We're only talking about seven hole points, so what we're really referencing here is that Justin Upton has struggled with injuries and performance in recent years.
2021 snapshot: Again, this has been Upton's spot since late in the 2017 season, when he's healthy. Since the beginning of the 2019 season, he has hit .215/.302/.424 with an almost incredible minus-21 defensive runs saved as a left fielder. He's off to a below-replacement start again in 2021. The Angels are positioned to contend this season and have prospects Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell waiting in the wings.
25. Cleveland Indians
Position: Center field (hole score: 7)
Last green: 2009 (44% green since 1969)
Brief history: The Indians also have seven hole points built up in right field, but I went with center field as the biggest hole because it has been open longer. (Cleveland is also red in left field.) The issues with the Indians' outfield in recent years have been well chronicled, and years from now we may look at Cleveland's shortcomings in that area as being the main reason the team was not able to win a title during an era of contention that remains ongoing.
2021 snapshot: The Indians have tried non-center fielders Amed Rosario, Jordan Luplow and Ben Gamel at the spot this year. During the early going, they've combined to play at replacement level.
26. Toronto Blue Jays
Position: Third base (hole score: 6)
Last green: 2017 (41% green since 1969)
Brief history: We're into the zone where in a single year a team can get a great season from a player and turn a position green. Any season that scores as an 80 on the scout scale is worth minus-7 points for that position. Of course, an 80 season is rare, but they do happen -- the Angels had one in 2016 in center field (Trout) and the Phillies landed an 80 for their 2011 starting rotation (Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, etc.). As for the Blue Jays, they just haven't had many longstanding holes. They were green at third base as recently as 2017 but have struggled there since while waiting for their prospects to mature. Incidentally, the Jays haven't been green at catcher since 1990, but they've mixed enough average to just-above-average seasons with avoiding really bad seasons to keep their hole score within shouting distance of green.
2021 snapshot: The arrival of Marcus Semien in Toronto pushed Cavan Biggio over to third base from the keystone. Biggio hasn't hit so far in 2021, but it's early.
27. St. Louis Cardinals
Position: Starting pitchers (hole score: 5)
Last green: 1979 (17% green since 1969)
Brief history: St. Louis was right on the cusp of turning this position green after the 2019 season, when their hole score had dwindled down to two from a high point of 16 way back in 1996. The Cardinals have been over .500 nearly the entire time the position has been in the red, so if you want to chalk this up to the vagaries of bWAR when it comes to starting pitchers, I won't argue with you. Even so, there have been some great starting pitching seasons for St. Louis during that span, including a 75 scout score for 2015. They just haven't strung two straight together. Last season, the Cardinals' rotation sunk to 28th with a below-replacement finish.
2021 snapshot: There were a lot of concerns about the depth of the St. Louis rotation before the season as well as the lack of elite strikeout pitchers. My game-score-based system thought the Cardinals would be OK with a group of consistent veterans working in front of an elite team defense. Well, the veterans haven't been consistent, the team defense has been so-so and the rotation is barely above replacement. Injuries have been part of the story, and perhaps St. Louis' rotation fortunes will improve as everyone gets back to a full workload.
28. Oakland Athletics
Position: Second base (hole score: 4)
Last green: 2011 (37% green since 1969)
Brief history: The back end of these rankings is fascinating. The teams after Oakland should not have any high hole scores because they can afford to buy solutions when they can't develop them. Oakland cannot, yet they've managed to come up with performers across the board over the years without spending at a high level. That said, second base has been a problem spot for the most part since 2011, save for a solid stretch in 2017 and 2018, when Jed Lowrie held the position.
2021 snapshot: Well, Lowrie is back and after barely getting onto the field during his time with the Mets, and he's off to a resurgent start in Oakland. Lowrie has been one of April's great stories, hitting .293/.361/.493. There's an outside chance Lowrie could turn the position green if he keeps up his early pace. More likely, the A's will be back to looking for a short-term fix, as they do at most spots each season. Even if Lowrie holds up and returns in 2022, he's 37, so he's not the long-term answer.
29. New York Yankees
Position: Shortstop (hole score: 3)
Last green: 2018 (63% green since 1969)
Brief history: The Yankees were safely green at short for most of Derek Jeter's career. They were safely green during most of Didi Gregorius' tenure at the position. The hole, insofar as it is one, is strictly a reflection of Gregorius' injury-plagued final season in the Bronx and the rocky start to Gleyber Torres' time at the position. Before Jeter, the Yankees went through a prolonged period of ineptness in trying to find a permanent shortstop, cycling through players like Bobby Meacham, Alvaro Espinoza, Wayne Tolleson, Rafael Santana and Spike Owen. Good times.
2021 snapshot: The entire Yankees team has been in a funk to start the season, and Torres is no exception. There has been talk about moving Torres to another position, which might make sense in light of the strong class of free-agent shortstops looming in the winter ahead. The Yankees should be beating down the door of the Rockies in an effort to get their hands on Trevor Story from now until the trade deadline.
30. Los Angeles Dodgers
Position: Relief pitchers (hole score: 0)
Last green: 2020 (54% green since 1969)
Brief history: Yeah, how boring. It's another system that paints the Dodgers as perfect. No holes. Yep -- zero. I listed the relievers because they were the most recent position group to be in the red for L.A., falling into that shallow hole after the 2019 season.
2021 snapshot: The Dodgers still appear to be hole-free as they launch into what could be a record-setting 2021 season. The bullpen so far is only 16th in bWAR at the position. If even that held up, that won't put the Dodgers in the red. Besides, chances are, the Dodgers will get better even in that area. They just have too many good arms to flail for long, and that's not even flailing.