The 2021 MLB season opens this week, but we're already thinking ahead to what things might look like come October.
Which home run hitters will outslug the rest? Which strikeout artists will rule the pitching leaderboards? And which veterans have historic milestones within their reach this summer?
We asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield to make their predictions for the most interesting stat categories ahead of the season, along with trying to nail the exact stat line for some of baseball's most exciting stars.
Who will win the home run crown in each league this season?
Schoenfield: Ronald Acuna Jr. hit 41 in 2019 and his 155-game pace in 2020 was 47. I think he might get to 50 this season. In the AL, I'm going with 2019 league leader Jorge Soler to edge out Mike Trout and a healthy Giancarlo Stanton.
Gonzalez: I'll go with Aaron Judge in the AL because I'm hoping he can stay healthy for a full season, and I'm anticipating a big year from him if he does. In the NL, Pete Alonso's gonna do it again.
Doolittle: I'll go with Mike Trout in the AL, which is a bit of a gamble that he stays healthy enough to play 145-plus games. If so, his homer rate over the past couple of years is enough to get him to 50 dingers. In the NL, it's wide open. I'll go with Acuna, who I think will put up a 40-40 season. Of course, picking against Juan Soto in any hitting category right now is kind of a gamble in itself.
Which hitter will win the MLB batting average title?
Schoenfield: Soto seems like the chalk pick in the NL after his .351 average in 2020. Let's see if he can do that over 162 games. It's hard to bet against DJ LeMahieu in the AL since he has hit .336 since joining the Yankees, but Minnesota's Luis Arraez is a sleeper (.331 career average) if he gets enough playing time to qualify and my deep sleeper is Seattle's Ty France. He hit .399 in Triple-A in 2019, .305 in the majors last season and tore it up this spring.
Gonzalez: Corey Seager is my pick in the NL. He probably isn't the first guy you think about when it comes to winning a batting title, but he was locked in throughout the summer last year then won MVP in the NLCS and World Series and has continued to mash in spring training. He's a pending free agent, far enough removed from hip surgery, and I think his best is ahead. In the AL, I'm going with Anthony Rendon.
Doolittle: It's stunning how few hitters project to hit .300. We know there will be .300 hitters, but there are few players for whom you can just pencil it in. Because of that, how could you pick against Soto? More difficult is predicting an AL winner. LeMahieu is the safe bet, especially since Luis Arraez has been shifted to a utility role that might leave him short of qualifying. But I'm going to roll the dice and pick someone who I think will win a batting title at some point: Chicago's Nick Madrigal. If I'm right, he'll be leading off for Tony La Russa sooner than later.
Who will win the ERA title in each league this season?
Schoenfield: I'm going out on the limb here and picking Jacob deGrom and Shane Bieber. Sleeper candidates include Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff in the NL and Kenta Maeda, who isn't exactly a sleeper since he finished second in the Cy Young voting last year. He's pitching in the right division and looked fantastic in spring training.
Gonzalez: It's a lot more fun when we pick different players, but deGrom was throwing over 100 mph earlier this spring, and I honestly can't justify anybody else winning the NL ERA title. My guy in the AL is Tyler Glasnow. This might be the year he really comes into his own.
Doolittle: Jake deGrom has gone to another level and with the spring reports of him looking better than ever, he's a no-brainer to win a tough-to-project category in the NL. The AL is pretty open but with a lack of a clear next-best hurler in the circuit, I'll go with Yankees ace Gerrit Cole even though park effects work against him.
Which pitcher will have the most strikeouts in all of MLB?
Schoenfield: Gerrit Cole fanned 326 batters in 2019, although his strikeout rate was down more than 7% last year. I don't know if he can get to 300 again, but he's durable and he's one pitcher you probably don't have to worry about his team restricting his innings.
Gonzalez: Lucas Giolito's strikeout percentage over the past three years has gone from 16.1 to 32.3 to 33.7, and I think he'll take another step forward on a really good White Sox team. Do I really have to state my NL pick? It's deGrom, of course. If he stays healthy, he might just win the MVP.
Doolittle: No one really combines projections of both an elite strikeout rate with a high quantity of innings like Cole, so he's my pick. It could be an epic duel in this area between Cole and deGrom to see who gets to 300 strikeouts first. This assumes that they'll be working at something close to a normal workload, of course, but I'd be surprised if that's not the case for them.
What is the biggest milestone you are watching this season?
Schoenfield: Miguel Cabrera is 13 home runs from 500 and 134 hits from 3,000. It's not a guarantee he gets to either one in 2021.
Doolittle: This is a standard answer, but it's true for me. I will also glory in Miggy's quest to finally reach 3,000 hits and 500 homers. I just hope he doesn't limp his way to them because the occasion should be about celebrating one of the best right-handed hitters in the history of the game.
Gonzalez: On a similar note, Albert Pujols is 38 home runs away from joining Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth as the only members of the 700 club. He probably won't get there, of course, but if he's close, I wonder how that will influence his decision to try to hook on with another team in 2022.
Prediction time! We'll start with Fernando Tatis Jr.'s 2021 stat line in his first full season.
Doolittle: First full season? Really? I'm already kind of tired of him. ... It's a joke! I temper my expectations for him in 2021 by thinking of his 2020 performance as one in which the small sample of games just happened to catch a stretch in which he didn't experience any prolonged slumps, especially because he does strike out quite a bit. I'll say .288/.368/.573 with 41 homers, 101 RBIs and 119 runs. Not bad for tempered expectations, I'd say.
Schoenfield: I'll go exactly with his career line: .301/.374/.582, with 38 home runs, 22 stolen bases, three runs scored on infield popups and a Gold Glove.
Gonzalez: I'll go better than that because he has already shown a knack for improving year to year -- .310/.390/.600, 45 homers, 30 stolen bases and 10 triples. The only stat I really care about: 0 trips to the injured list. If that's the case, the rest will take care of itself.
Now give us Shohei Ohtani's 2021 stat line as both a hitter and pitcher.
Doolittle: Given how awesome he has looked this spring, I'm on the Babe Ruth watch. Well, not so much the Babe Watch, but Shohei Watch . While I don't think he can replicate a Ruth/1919 season (543 plate appearances and 133⅓ innings pitched), I am fascinated to see how close he can get. And if he excels in the dual role too many people want him to give up, how that translates into bottom-line value will be really interesting. Call it the 400/100 watch. I'll go with 430 PAs, 21 homers, 60 RBIs and an OPS of .847 at the plate. On the mound, let's say 120 innings, 10-5 with a 3.90 ERA and 134 strikeouts.
Gonzalez: .900 OPS in 450 plate appearances, 3.40 ERA in 150 innings, 10 wins above replacement. Yes, I'm way too geeked about Ohtani's 2021 season. No, I don't have a firm grasp of reality.
Schoenfield: .275, 31 home runs and 11-4, 3.58 ERA.
What about Trevor Bauer in his first year with the Dodgers?
Gonzalez: Given the benefits of playing on an elite team, with a front office and coaching staff that has proved capable of getting the most out of players, and how he seemed to come into his own last season, I think something close to his 2018 numbers could serve as an accurate gauge. I'll go 15 wins, a 3.20 ERA and 190 innings. It's tough to see anyone being allowed to reach 200 this season.
Doolittle: He should have picked a team with a shortage of starting pitchers so he could start 40 times. I'll go with 14-9, 3.70 ERA, 211 strikeouts over 187 innings.
Schoenfield: 19-5, 2.77 ERA, 256 strikeouts.