As negotiations between MLB players and owners reached their apex last summer, the union held together strongly, with Max Scherzer and Jack Flaherty and others taking to social media to collectively reflect the group's insistence on 100% pay.
But it seemed even then that inevitably the owners would find ways to offset revenues that were diminished by conducting games without fans in the stands. That effort began last spring with club employees being furloughed or laid off, with benefits being slashed, with minor leaguers left in lockdown and no games to play. The most significant cuts, however, hit the class of free agents that reached the market this winter, rollbacks that are staggering, even for the guys at the top of the player pyramid.
Last week, Trevor Bauer signed for what will likely be the highest single-season salaries in history thanks to his three-year, $102 million deal with the Dodgers. But as agents have noted, the structure of the deal reflects the larger shift that has occurred this winter. Bauer's deal is worth less than one-third in guaranteed dollars than Gerrit Cole's $324 million contract and less than half of the $245 of what Stephen Strasburg got.
Executives will tell you privately that when a player signs a deal of six or more years, the team's hope is that the signee continues to perform at an elite level in the first third of the contract and continues to be good or very good in the middle years. At the back end, there is an assumption that there will be a fall-off. The teams assume that risk.
But with Bauer's deal, the player assumes almost all of the risk, while betting on himself that he will continue to perform at an elite level through a short-term deal. Bauer was the market's best free-agent starting pitcher by far. But as with a lot of the contracts this winter, the number of years and guaranteed dollars were far fewer than in past offseasons. Front offices are divorcing themselves from risk.
This winter, the diminishment of free-agent deals has been pushed by the impact of the coronavirus. But the trend began long before anybody talked about social distancing and masks.
As the great Paul Hembekides from ESPN notes, the average length of contracts has been in decline since before the current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) was signed.
2020-21: 1.47 years
2019-20: 1.60 years
2018-19: 1.77 years
2017-18: 1.71 years
2016-17: 1.95 years
2015-16: 2.10 years
Free-agent classes have grown. Deals are shorter. Teams are increasingly running from risk, with the burden of risk naturally shifting onto the players.
Some other particulars from Hembo's work:
1. Despite the fact that the class of free agents is among the most voluminous in history, the number of dollars spent invested in free agents is down markedly -- the lowest since 2009.
Free agent spending
2020-21: $1.034 billion
2019-20: $2.134 billion
2018-19: $1.857 billion
2017-18: $1.469 billion
2016-17: $1.451 billion
2015-16: $2.533 billion
2014-15: $1.665 billion
2013-14: $1.875 billion
2012-13: $1.443 billion
2011-12: $1.437 billion
2010-11: $1.301 billion
2009-10: $815 million
Some prominent free agents remain on the board, like Jake Odorizzi, and their signings will goose these numbers. But basically, the spending on free agents has been about half of what it was last winter.
2. The average deal size this offseason, through Feb. 9, is $11.4 million, which is on pace to be the lowest average since 2010 ($9.6 million).
3. Through Feb. 9, this class of free agents had signed only 22 multiyear deals -- and it's likely we'll see the lowest number of multiyear deals this winter than in any winter since there were 17 in 1994, the offseason before the players' strike. In 2006, 57 players signed multiyear deals.
4. As of now, 25 of the 30 teams will see per-game payroll reductions from 2020 (accounting for the proration of last summer's 60-game season), with the Rangers ($66 million), Yankees ($60 million), Cubs ($48.6 million), Rockies ($47.5 million) and Indians ($47 million) leading the way. The Cardinals, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Padres and Nationals are the only teams that are likely to add payroll in 2021, year over year.
The life of Pedro Gomez
I followed Pedro Gomez professionally, with a consistent jealousy. When I was 26 years old, I was hired to cover South Bay high schools for the San Diego Union (later, the Union would merge with the Tribune into the newspaper it is today). The job that I stepped into had just been vacated by Pedro, who had gotten the call to the big leagues, so to speak; the San Jose Mercury News hired Pedro to cover the Oakland Athletics.
I felt confident that I'd be able to handle the work in San Diego, but Pedro was so well-liked and revered by the Union staffers that I occasionally felt like a substitute filling in for the most popular teacher because of all the stories they told about him and the obvious affection for him. Years later, in 2003, when I interviewed at ESPN, I walked into the newsroom as part of my get-to-know-you tour. There was Pedro, who I'd come to befriend through the years. (And if you didn't know this already, you certainly have learned it since the devastating news of his death -- his life was overflowing with an unmatched ocean of friendships. He had just been hired by the company to report on television, which he did so well over the better part of the past two decades. But my greatest envy of him was about his ability to use his mastery of two languages, Spanish and English. When he interviewed young players from the Dominican Republic or Venezuela -- or Cuba, where Pedro had been conceived -- I was so pleased that there was a conduit for them, to quickly convey their perspective accurately and fairly, in a way that I could not.
He was our colleague. He was our friend. A tribute to Pedro Gomez that aired on SportsCenter last night, from our own @ShelleyESPN pic.twitter.com/fvjIuuhhO5
— Michele Steele (@MicheleSteele) February 9, 2021
A loss of a good friend is personal and awful, and like many others, I am dealing with that grief -- mostly for his family. He was such a caring father. But I also am saddened by the reality that there will be a couple of generations of Spanish-speaking players in the years ahead who will never benefit from working with a journalist, an ally, with a special gift for language and a wonderful soul and respect for them. On the podcast the other day, Charlie Moynihan, a field producer who worked more closely with Pedro than anyone at our company, spoke about the way Pedro connected with players. Tim Kurkjian added stories of his own.
Tigers manager A.J. Hinch, who got to know Pedro as Hinch broke into the big leagues with the Athletics, sent this along last week:
A one-of-a-kind person of our baseball family was lost with the passing of Pedro Gomez. It hit me hard, just as it has for so many who crossed paths with Pedey. Whether it was a professional conversation about the game, or more likely a personal exchange about our families, I always felt that Pedro was in my corner. I will miss our talks, his perspective on life, and his unwavering belief in connection. I'm forever thankful he called me on Thursday to tell stories of Tigers baseball, the art of managing, and his happiness for my new beginning. RIP, hermano.
About the universal DH
I agree wholeheartedly with what Joel Sherman writes here: At some point, Major League Baseball should relent and adopt the use of the universal designated hitter for 2021 (with the necessary rubber stamp from the union). Look, at the outset of this offseason, MLB wanted the DH in the National League to be a bargaining chip, aiming to parlay it as part of the agreement for expanded playoffs. That didn't happen; the union effectively called the bluff of MLB, with the belief that because the universal DH has universal appeal -- teams, players, the league -- there was no reason to swap assets for it. As it stands, NL teams have been told to operate under the assumption that there will be no DH for 2021.
But with the scheduled Opening Day just 45 days away, it does seem like MLB is cutting off its nose to spite its face. There has been an industry-wide push for more offense, and the sport-wide use of the DH could help with that. Front offices want the DH to protect pitchers, their most valued assets, from the heightened injury risks that come with swinging a bat, bunting or running the bases.
MLB has been deeply frustrated by what it feels is the union's utter lack of collaborative spirit. There is a thought among the folks in the central office that the MLBPA shouldn't be rewarded for its intransigence. And there is probably no chance MLB would think about installing a universal DH while some free agents (like Justin Turner) might benefit from the financial leverage.
But before the first pitch of the season is thrown, MLB should move to put the DH in place.
What some teams like about themselves
An executive of a team generally perceived to be in decline recently shared that his front office's internal win projection was markedly better than what the media and even other teams think. (By the way: This is not always the case.) The executive explained that there are parts of the team not as well known in the industry as they will be in the months ahead.
I asked some sources the best part of their respective organizations that nobody is talking about, and here are some of the responses:
Oakland A's
The rotation is still underrated, relative to the rest of the league -- Sean Manaea, Jesus Luzardo, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas and A.J. Puk.
New York Yankees
The nice mix of high-ceiling pitchers who are right at the cusp of the big leagues.
Milwaukee Brewers
Underneath the star power of Josh Hader and Devin Williams, Milwaukee has a lot of bullpen depth in Brent Suter, Freddy Peralta, Justin Topa, Eric Yardley and Drew Rasmussen, etc. That infrastructure allows manager Craig Counsell to deploy Hader and Williams as relief sledgehammers when Milwaukee has a chance to win games.
Atlanta Braves
Many of the Atlanta pitchers still have options to be sent to the minor leagues, which gives the team a ton of flexibility in structuring its roster day to day.
Boston Red Sox
First, the versatility -- with Enrique Hernandez and Marwin Gonzalez, manager Alex Cora will have a ton of options adapting day to day in resting regulars and making in-game moves. Second, the Red Sox like their prospect depth, believing that the layers of talent below the 40-man roster has thickened.
Minnesota Twins
Payroll flexibility. Minnesota is not a small-market team, carrying a payroll over $100 million in seven of the past nine full seasons. Still, the Twins have been adept at veering around risk while being very competitive. Minnesota has made the playoffs in three of the past four seasons, and the only big long-term contractual obligation is with Josh Donaldson, whose deal runs through 2023 (with a club option and $8 million payoff for 2024). Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Kenta Maeda and Jorge Polanco are also signed to relatively modest deals that should enable the Twins to adapt and veer as necessary -- as they did this winter with the one-year signings of Andrelton Simmons, Alex Colome, Nelson Cruz and J.A. Happ.
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia's pitching was a mess last year, generally, but the rotation could be really good in 2021, with the return of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and the always-improving Zach Eflin. They will also have Spencer Howard, Chase Anderson, Matt Moore and Vince Velasquez competing for innings in the No. 4 and No. 5 spots.
Seattle Mariners
There is a belief in the organization that even beyond the young talent collected, the overall athleticism has improved. That will help the defense, the baserunning and the overall balance of the team.
Washington Nationals
The rotation is filled with star power at the front, with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin and Jon Lester. But the Nationals also feel like they have exceptional quality in their depth, with Erick Fedde and Seth Romero among the group filling out the back end of the rotation. Behind that there is a layer of starting pitching prospects not far from reaching the big leagues.
Noteworthy
There was no minor league baseball played last year, and because of the uncertainty of when it will resume, the scouting of the industry's youngest players has suffered. This is part of the reason the Red Sox arranged for three players to be named later in their swap of Andrew Benintendi the other day; it gives them some time to do more scouting of players who haven't been seen much since the COVID-19 shutdown. ... We've seen offseasons in which the last of the unsigned players are mostly the clients of agent Scott Boras. With spring training starting in the week ahead, this is the case again. Jackie Bradley Jr. and Trevor Rosenthal are represented by Boras, and they are all still on the free-agent board. Jake Arrieta and James Paxton, both Boras clients, agreed to terms on one-year deals in the past three days.