If you thought the 2021 Hall of Fame ballot was a contentious debate over statistics, character and PEDs, just wait until Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz join next year. Not only will it be the first chance for writers to weigh in on Rodriguez and Ortiz, it will be the final time on the ballot for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling (although Schilling did ask to be removed from his final year on the ballot) and Sammy Sosa.
While Bonds and Clemens have seen their vote percentage increase in recent years, the BBWAA has failed to elect them despite their standing as two of the most statistically accomplished players in the game's history. Sosa, who hit 609 home runs, hasn't even cleared 20%. Schilling, with 216 wins and his record as one of the greatest postseason pitchers of all time, had the highest vote total of any player this year but fell just short -- no doubt in part to his controversial social media behavior.
Now Rodriguez and Ortiz will join the fray, making the 2022 ballot perhaps the most difficult one yet in clarifying where we are going with all this.
There is certainly no denying the prodigious numbers compiled over Rodriguez's 22-year career. He hit .295 with 696 home runs, 3,115 hits, 2,086 RBIs and 2,021 runs. He's fourth all time in home runs, fourth in RBIs, eighth in runs and 12th in WAR among position players, and he won three MVP awards, topped 50 home runs three times, had a 40/40 season and won a batting title when he hit .358 in his age-20 season.
In February 2009, he admitted to using PEDs while with the Rangers from 2001 to 2003. Four years later, he became the face of the Biogenesis scandal and MLB eventually suspended him for 211 games (later reduced to 162) based on "his use and possession of numerous forms of prohibited performance-enhancing substances, including testosterone and human growth hormone, over the course of multiple years." Furthermore, MLB stated, "Rodriguez's discipline under the Basic Agreement is for attempting to cover-up his violations of the program by engaging in a course of conduct intended to obstruct and frustrate the Office of the Commissioner's investigation."
Ortiz hit .286 with 541 home runs and 1,768 RBIs in his career. He became a legendary postseason player, helping the Red Sox to three World Series titles with numerous clutch hits and home runs on his way to a lifetime playoff batting line of .289/.404/.543. His career WAR of 55.3 doesn't scream automatic Hall of Famer, but the home run and RBI counts do -- and he became one of the most popular players in the sport. He was still going strong at the end, hitting .315/.401/.620 with 37 home runs and 127 RBIs in his final season.
A New York Times report in 2009, citing anonymous sources, listed Ortiz as among a group of over 100 players who had allegedly tested positive for PEDs during survey testing conducted in 2003. That report itself is controversial -- the names were never supposed to be leaked, and MLB and the union have both agreed that not every player who appeared on the list was considered a positive -- and 2003 was the first year of the PED testing program, with no punishments for positive tests issued until 2004.
Ortiz has denied ever using PEDs and once wrote on The Players' Tribune website that he understands some people will always look at him as a cheater. "Not one player in MLB baseball has had more drug tests than David Ortiz, because I get drug-tested all the time," he told Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci in 2016. "Blood, urine, all kinds of stuff. Never failed a test, man."
The cloud that hangs over Ortiz is much thinner than the allegations and evidence that surround Rodriguez, Bonds and Clemens and some others, but it does exist.
So now the baseball writers have a year to figure out how to consider these two -- and whether Schilling, Bonds and Clemens deserve any kind of final-ballot boost, as usually happens (Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker and Tim Raines were all recent inductees elected in their final year of eligibility).
Here are some key questions to consider:
1. Will Rodriguez be viewed the same as Bonds and Clemens -- statistical inner-circle superstars who were ethically compromised -- and thus receive a large yet ultimately limited base of support? The difference here: Rodriguez received a suspension for the Biogenesis scandal while Bonds and Clemens never tested positive for PEDs and were never suspended (granted, the bulk of their careers came before testing began). Keep in mind that Bonds and Clemens both received less than 40% of the vote their first year on the ballot and did not reach 60% until 2020.
2. Will Rodriguez be viewed more harshly because of the suspension, more like Manny Ramirez? Ramirez was suspended twice for positive PED tests and received just 34% of the vote this year. The difference here: Rodriguez was a much more valuable all-around player (117.5 career WAR to 69.3 career), so suspension or not, should receive more support than Ramirez. I suspect that Rodriguez will poll somewhere between the Bonds/Clemens and Ramirez totals, at least initially, as writers figure out what to do with him. Of course, if Bonds and Clemens somehow do get elected in 2022, that would help Rodriguez's chances in the future.
3. Wait, so Bonds and Clemens have a chance to get elected in 2022? Probably not. Yes, players can make a big leap their final year -- Martinez went from 70.4% to 85.4, Walker from 54.6 to 76.6, Raines from 69.8 to 86.0 -- but Bonds and Clemens are unlikely to receive the same sort of push. While the younger members of the BBWAA are more forgiving toward the steroid era, the turnover of voters isn't rapid enough to get them to 75%.
4. Will voters hold the 2003 testing leak against Ortiz? Maybe a few will, but I don't think he's going to be viewed in the same light as what I call the Big Seven: Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, Ramirez, Rodriguez, Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro (you can perhaps include Gary Sheffield in this group, although he remains on the ballot). Bottom line: Ortiz did play from 2004 through 2016 without testing positive.
5. Is Ortiz a first-ballot slam dunk anyway? Let's compare him to Martinez (who needed 10 ballots to get elected) and Fred McGriff (whom the writers failed to elect):
Ortiz: .286/.380/.552, 541 HR, 1,768 RBI, 141 OPS+, 55.3 WAR
Martinez: .312/.418/.515, 309 HR, 1,261 RBI, 147 OPS+, 68.4 WAR
McGriff: .284/.377/.509, 493 HR, 1,550 RBI, 134 OPS+, 52.6 WAR
Martinez's significant edge over Ortiz in WAR may surprise you given Ortiz's big advantage in home runs, but Martinez has a 38-point edge in on-base percentage. Baseball-Reference estimates that Martinez created 532 more runs than an average hitter compared to 455 for Ortiz. McGriff isn't quite on their level -- 399 runs above average -- but he's comparable to Ortiz and he topped out at just 39.8% in his final year.
6. How much, in the end, does the "fame" in Hall of Fame factor in? Ortiz, of course, has other positives that help him stand apart from Martinez or McGriff. You can't tell the story of baseball over the past 20 years without making Ortiz one of the central figures in that story. He became a larger-than-life figure in Boston, embracing his role as Big Papi and October hero. I think he gets in on the first ballot.
You might know that Rodriguez and Ortiz were nearly teammates -- twice. Ortiz, then known as David Arias, was a Mariners prospect in 1996 when Rodriguez had that stunning first full season in the majors, leading the American League in batting average, runs, doubles and total bases, finishing second in the MVP voting. Their paths actually crossed on a rainy night in July in Appleton, Wisconsin.
The Mariners had detoured to their Midwest League affiliate for an exhibition game -- a reward, apparently, for Appleton building a new ballpark. It rained that day and then again just before the start of the game, and Mariners manager Lou Piniella wasn't about to let his team play on a soggy, rain-soaked field. So somebody decided to hold a home run derby, and the tall, lanky Appleton first baseman stole the show that night. A month later, the Mariners acquired Twins third baseman Dave Hollins, trading Ortiz to Minnesota in September -- and depriving Mariners fans of a future lineup featuring Ken Griffey Jr., Rodriguez, Ortiz and Martinez together.
They nearly became teammates again in 2004. The Rangers and Red Sox had reached a deal that would bring Rodriguez to Boston, while sending Ramirez and prospect Jon Lester to the Rangers. Boston also wanted Rodriguez to restructure his contract, however, reducing his annual salary by $4 million per season. The union objected to lowering the value of an existing deal, so Rodriguez instead eventually went to the Yankees.
I think back to that season -- Ortiz's heroics in the ALCS to rally the Red Sox over the Yankees, Rodriguez trying to slap the ball out of Bronson Arroyo's glove, Schilling pitching through the bloody sock, Clemens winning his seventh Cy Young Award while with the Astros, Bonds winning his fourth straight MVP award with an absurd season.
It was a memorable year -- one of the best in baseball's long history, and these were the players producing the biggest headlines. As we look ahead to the 2022 Hall of Fame ballot, as those memories fade and we crunch the numbers and weigh all the other factors, filling out that ballot feels like an impossible task.