It's Baseball Hall of Fame election week, and with nobody likely to get voted into Cooperstown when ballots are revealed Tuesday night, it seems like a perfect time to look ahead by predicting 40 active players who will eventually be Hall of Famers.
Why 40? After all, that feels like a lot of Hall of Famers. History suggests, however, that that is about the number of players in any given season who will eventually receive a plaque in Cooperstown. Here are the tallies for each year of a decade ending in 1 (not including 2011, since many players that year are still not eligible):
2001: 27
1991: 33
1981: 34
1971: 39
1961: 34
1951: 29
1941: 54
1931: 66
1921: 45
1911: 31
1901: 28
(Note: I included players elected for their play in the Negro Leagues, using their active years as listed on Seamheads.com. For Negro Leaguers who played in MLB, such as Satchel Paige and Monte Irvin, their MLB years are included as well.)
Yes, there are only 27 Hall of Famers from 2001, for example -- so far. There are still players on the ballot who were active in 2001 who might get in (Curt Schilling, Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, etc.), players who have yet to hit the ballot (Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, Carlos Beltran, etc.), plus the steroid guys who otherwise would already be in (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, etc.).
Keep in mind that there are nearly double the teams (30) than existed for the first 60 years of the 20th century (16). That makes 40 Hall of Famers a reasonable estimate. A few quick notes:
A player can get elected via the baseball writers (Baseball Writers' Association of America) or a veterans committee (currently made up of 16 members including Hall of Fame players, former executives and writers). In recent years, the BBWAA has started to recognize more players who had a peak value instead of just a long career with impressive counting stats -- think Larry Walker or Edgar Martinez. The veterans committee in the past few years has recognized players with longevity even if their peak value wasn't extraordinary (Harold Baines, Lee Smith, Jack Morris).
I reference Baseball-Reference WAR unless noted. As a general guide, 70 WAR or higher is a strong Hall of Fame candidate, 60 WAR is borderline and 50 WAR gets you in the discussion (relievers are in their own category). WAR is by no means the end of the debate, but the BBWAA is starting to put a heavy weight on it. There are other factors, of course: Dominant seasons (a 5-WAR, or five-win season, is an All-Star-type season, while 8 WAR is an MVP-type season), postseason play and the old "feel" factor all play a role (along with PEDs and off-the-field issues).
I did not include Robinson Cano, who won't play in 2021. His PED suspensions probably put him in the Manny Ramirez category anyway: He would have gone in, but now he won't.
OK, to the list. I've divided it into six tiers, with the players ranked within each tier.
Jump to a tier:
The locks | The Votto group | On the right path
Sky is the limit | Work to do | Next generation
TIER I: THE LOCKS
1. Albert Pujols
Here we are, entering the final year of Pujols' 10-year, $240 million contract with the Angels. It hasn't worked out as the Angels anticipated, of course, as they have made the playoffs just once and Pujols' production has paled in comparison to the numbers he put up with St. Louis. Check out his 162-game averages:
Cardinals: .328/.420/.617, 43 HR, 127 RBI, 123 R, 8.2 WAR
Angels: .257/.312/.448, 31 HR, 108 RBI, 78 R, 2.0 WAR
Still, his legacy as the No. 1 or No. 2 first baseman ever alongside Lou Gehrig is secure. He's third all time in RBIs and fifth all time in home runs. The pandemic-shortened season probably cost him a chance at 700 home runs, as he's sitting on 662.
Similar Hall of Famer: Jimmie Foxx. Like Pujols, Foxx was a three-time MVP, winning four home run titles and two batting titles (two and one for Pujols). Like Pujols, he petered out in his early 30s (his last 4-win WAR season came at 32, same as Pujols).
2. Mike Trout
Now that he has 10 seasons in the big leagues, Trout is officially eligible for the Hall of Fame. If he suddenly decided to retire to coach the Philadelphia Eagles or host the Mike Trout Weather Podcast, he would be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Similar Hall of Famer: Willie Mays. Mays might be the greatest player of all time and Trout has a chance to get to that level, although Mays played incredibly well in his 30s. Trout is entering his age-29 season and isn't even halfway to Mays' career WAR total. Trout has three MVP awards while Mays won two, but they have this common: They could have won it almost every season.
3. Clayton Kershaw
The reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated (yes, his ERA climbed all the way up to 3.03 in 2019 before falling to 2.16 in 2020). In a year when joyful moments were cherished more than ever, one of the best was Kershaw finally winning that elusive World Series. He went 4-1 in the postseason, winning both of his World Series starts, including the critical Game 5.
Similar Hall of Famer: Sandy Koufax. Easy one, right? Left-handed, Dodgers, three Cy Young Awards, even the K's on the mound and in their last names. As Kershaw continues to roll along, however -- even if not quite as dominant as during his Cy Young peak -- his career is soaring past Koufax's injury-shortened one. Kershaw now has more wins (175 to 165), more career WAR (67.0 to 53.1), more innings, a better ERA (2.43 to 2.76) and a much better league-adjusted ERA (158 ERA+ to 131).
4. Miguel Cabrera
Similar to Pujols, his last great season came in his early 30s when he hit .316 with 38 home runs in 2016. He hasn't hit .300 since, as injuries have taken their toll. He is still under contract for three more seasons, so he should get to 500 home runs (he's at 487) and has a slim chance for 2,000 RBIs (he's at 1,729).
Similar Hall of Famer: Frank Thomas. Two great hitters with power, as opposed to power hitters. Thomas won one batting title and had seasons of .353, .349 and .347. On his way to 521 home runs, he had five 40-homer seasons. Cabrera owns four batting titles and the higher career average (.313 to .301). Thomas drew more walks, so he has the OBP edge, and the young Cabrera struck out more than Thomas, but their all-fields approaches were similar.
5. Justin Verlander
Verlander was the one active pitcher with a clear shot at 300 wins entering 2020, but that hope is gone after the shortened season and Tommy John surgery that will wipe out his 2021 campaign. He will be 39 with 226 career wins when he returns in 2022.
Similar Hall of Famer: Don Drysdale. I love the physical comparison here -- Verlander is 6-foot-6, Drysdale was 6-foot-5, both with blazing fastballs. Drysdale pitched from a lower arm slot, but like Verlander, kind of cupped the ball at the back end, creating a bit of a herky-jerky look to the overall delivery.
Drysdale:
Verlander:
6. Max Scherzer
One thing we don't know about the future of Hall of Fame voting regarding starting pitchers is how important wins will be to voters, in this era when starters pitch fewer innings and get fewer of them. The 300-win qualifier is long gone, and Roy Halladay made it in 2019 with just 203 wins. Will the bar eventually dip below 200 if a pitcher still had a dominant peak? Scherzer has 175 wins, but he should be a Hall of Fame lock with an incredible seven-year peak that includes a bunch of black ink (leading the league in a category) and three Cy Young Awards. That run may or may not be over on the heels of his so-so performance in 2020, but he's hardly at the end of his career.
Similar Hall of Famer: Pedro Martinez. First, there is the absurd arsenal of pitches. Pedro had a fastball, the best changeup ever and curveball he could manipulate to either side of the plate; Scherzer has the fastball, wipeout slider, changeup, curveball and a cutter. There has been nothing like peak Pedro, where you felt he could throw a no-hitter every time out, but I felt the same way about Scherzer. From 2013 to 2019, Scherzer's Cy Young finishes: first, fifth, fifth, first, first, second, third. Pedro from 1997 to 2004: First, second, first, first, injured, second, third, fourth. Finally, consider that the Dodgers traded a young Pedro because they didn't think he would hold up physically as a starter. The Diamondbacks traded Scherzer in part because they didn't think he would hold up as a starter due to his delivery.
7. Zack Greinke
His career numbers line up nicely with those of Roy Halladay, who was a first-ballot selection:
Greinke: 208-126, 3.37 ERA, 125 ERA+, 67.1 WAR
Halladay: 203-105, 3.38 ERA, 131 ERA+, 65.4 WAR
If you want to factor it in, Greinke has another five wins of value at the plate, pushing his career WAR well above 70. I think he's in, if not necessarily on the first ballot.
Similar Hall of Famer: Mike Mussina. Halladay isn't the best match, since he had more seasons of Cy Young-level performance. Greinke did have two incredible seasons in 2009 (his Cy Young season) and 2015 (1.66 ERA), but he's more like Mussina -- just consistently excellent year after year. Also, their style of pitching was similar, two of the most enjoyable pitchers of the past 30 years when it comes to outthinking batters, manipulating the baseball and relying on brains more than brawn.
8. Yadier Molina
Sure, the bat does not measure up with the Hall of Fame catchers of the past 50 years. A quick review:
Johnny Bench: 389 HR, 1,376 RBI, .817 OPS, 75.2 WAR
Gary Carter: 324 HR, 1,225 RBI, .773 OPS, 70.1 WAR
Ivan Rodriguez: 311 HR, 1,332 RBI, .798 OPS, 68.7 WAR
Carlton Fisk: 376 HR, 1,330 RBI, .797 OPS, 68.4 WAR
Mike Piazza: 427 HR, 1,335 RBI, .922 OPS, 59.6 WAR
Ted Simmons: 248 HR, 1,389 RBI, .785 OPS, 50.3 WAR
Molina: 160 HR, 932 RBI, .737 OPS, 40.4 WAR
He's still going in, although I suspect it might turn into a heated debate.
Similar Hall of Famer: Rick Ferrell. We go back to 1930s defensive stalwart Ferrell, who hit just 28 career home runs but has a career OPS+ of 95 that is similar to Molina's 98. Ferrell was an idiosyncratic selection of the veterans committee in 1984, and there is no good reason he's in rather than, say, Jim Sundberg or Bill Freehan or Thurman Munson.
TIER II: THE JOEY VOTTO GROUP
9. Joey Votto
We move on from the locks to a player who is in his own tier. Votto, of course, is a favorite of the analytics/WAR crowd because of his .419 OBP (leading the league seven times) and 62.1 career WAR. That puts him just over the line of "strong candidate," and he has some other markers as well: an MVP award, an MVP runner-up, eight .300 batting average seasons, some other top-10 MVP seasons, six All-Star appearances. His "counting" stats, however, indicate he's not quite a lock. He has just 295 home runs and 966 RBIs, low totals for a Hall of Fame first baseman. The five Hall of Fame first basemen since World War II (Jeff Bagwell, Eddie Murray, Tony Perez, Willie McCovey and Orlando Cepeda) have averaged 446 home runs and 1,604 RBIs.
Quick aside: Yes, just five Hall of Fame first basemen in 70 years. We're not including Thomas, who spent more time at DH, or Willie Stargell, who spent more time in the outfield. PEDs have kept out Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro. The writers didn't come close to electing Fred McGriff, despite 493 home runs and 1,550 RBIs. Will Clark -- .303, 284 home runs, 1,205 RBIs, 56.4 WAR -- was one and done. Keith Hernandez -- 60.3 WAR, great fielder, 162 home runs -- not in. Does the lack of first basemen help or hurt Votto? I'm not sure.
A final word here. One knock against Votto is he hasn't been a great RBI guy (three 100-RBI seasons). He hasn't hit well with runners on base? Actually, he has. With runners in scoring position, his career line is .326/.477/.563. With runners on base overall, it's .317/.450/.542.
Similar Hall of Famer: Edgar Martinez. An OBP machine like Votto with similar low counting numbers for a DH/1B type (309 home runs, 1,261 RBIs), it took Martinez 10 years on the ballot before he was elected.
TIER III: ON THE RIGHT PATH
10. Mookie Betts
As we saw in the 2020 postseason, Betts can beat you with this bat, glove, arm or legs. Really, Mookie is what I would call a seven-tool player, because he adds plate discipline and durability to the traditional five tools (ability to hit, hit for power, run, throw and field). How many Hall of Famers are seven-tool players?
Similar Hall of Famer: Roberto Clemente. As a kid, I had an old, wrinkled poster of Willie Mays that my second-grade teacher, Mr. Nichols, gave me. Mays had these gigantic hands gripped around the knob of the bat. Bill James recently pointed out that Mays, like Betts, wasn't a big guy, listed at 5-foot-10 and 170 pounds. Betts is listed at 5-foot-9, 180 on the Dodgers' roster.
Mays seems bigger, however; maybe that's just due to the baggier uniforms they wore in the 1950s and '60s, maybe it's those hands, but he also looks broader through the chest and waist than Betts. So I'm going with Clemente as the better physical comparison -- he was taller at 5-foot-11, but similarly lean. The on-field comparison is also a good match, two gifted right fielders with grace and powerful throwing arms. Betts has a little more power and takes more walks, Clemente hit for a higher average.
11. Nolan Arenado
His combination of Gold Glove defense (eight in a row) and power (he averaged 40 home runs from 2015 to 2019) has made him one of the elite all-around players in the game and a perennial MVP candidate. An injury slowed him in 2020, but at 30 years old he should bounce back and have more excellent seasons ahead. With 39.1 career WAR, Arenado is already two-thirds of the way to that 60-WAR baseline.
Similar Hall of Famer: Ron Santo. We can make the Brooks Robinson comparison on defense, but Arenado is already closing in on Robinson's career home run total. So let's go with Santo, an excellent two-way player (342 home runs, five Gold Gloves) who compiled 70.5 career WAR.
12. Manny Machado
Machado is a couple of years younger than Arenado and owns a similar career WAR (39.8), which in theory should make him a better Hall of Fame candidate. The difference is Machado has been more inconsistent in recent seasons.
Machado's OPS+ figures since 2017: 108, 145, 110, 158.
Two great seasons (one in a shortened season), two mediocre ones. We can't be completely sure where his offense goes over the next decade so, while his youth and power still make him a strong candidate, I rank him behind Arenado.
Similar Hall of Famer: Adrian Beltre. OK, Beltre is not yet in the Hall of Fame, but he will be, and the on-field comparison works with the power, defense and so-so OBP. Beltre is Machado's second-most similar batter through age 27 (Santo is first). Of course, Beltre was better in his 30s than his 20s, so Machado will have to age well to match Beltre's ultimate career numbers.
13. Freddie Freeman
I wouldn't have necessarily predicted this a couple years ago, but Freeman has now had back-to-back terrific seasons (38 home runs, 121 RBIs in 2019; .341/.462/.640 in 2020) at ages 29 and 30 and has hit .300 in four of the past five seasons. He should continue as one of the game's best hitters for at least a few more seasons.
Similar Hall of Famer: Eddie Murray. Maybe the most perfect match on this entire list, other than the fact that Murray was a switch-hitter (and Freeman now owns the MVP award that eluded Murray). Murray is not only Freeman's top match through age 30, he's been the most similar player at every age of Freeman's career since age 21. Steady Eddie would hit 229 home runs from age 31 on. If Freeman does that, he's at 469 home runs and likely soars past 1,500 RBIs.
14. Bryce Harper
In Harper's favor, he just completed his age-27 season and has 33.7 WAR and 232 home runs. That doesn't make him a slam dunk choice -- he's 39th among position players since World War II in WAR through age 27 and 16th in home runs -- but those are significant numbers.
On the other hand, he's really had just one big Hall of Fame-type season; his second- and third-best seasons were both shortened seasons (2017, when he only played 111 games due to a knee injury, and 2020). His path to Cooperstown likely rests on playing a long time and compiling impressive counting numbers such as 500 home runs and getting to 65 or 70 WAR.
Similar Hall of Famer: Eddie Mathews. They played different positions and it seems unlikely Harper comes close to Mathews' 96.2 career WAR, but they do play a similar style of offensive game: Home runs, walks, .270 average.
I also like this comparison for another reason. At 21, Mathews hit .302 with 47 home runs, and he spent the rest of his career chasing that season. Some viewed his career as a disappointment as a result, even though when he retired in 1968, he was clearly the greatest third baseman of all time (he arguably still ranks second behind Mike Schmidt). Because of that view, it took him five ballots to reach Cooperstown. Harper, likewise, will spend the rest of his career in the shadow of his age-22 season in 2015, when he hit .330 with 42 home runs to win unanimous MVP honors.
15. Giancarlo Stanton
Obviously, this is all about staying healthy, and Stanton has played just 41 games and hit seven home runs the past two seasons. Still, he's at 312 home runs and it wouldn't be shocking to see him reel off 120 home runs the next three seasons and get back on pace for 600.
Similar Hall of Famer: Willie Stargell. Two of the strongest men to ever play in the majors, Stargell was as known for his tape-measure home runs as Stanton is today.
16. Gerrit Cole
He has a long way to go with just 101 career wins as he enters his age-30 season, but he's healthy, he's established a high level of performance the past three seasons and he has a good team behind him.
Similar Hall of Famer: Bob Gibson. There is the "stuff" comparison -- big fastball, hard slider, curveball, changeup -- although as Gibson once said, "I actually used about nine pitches -- two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, a knockdown, brushback and hit batsman." Then there's this: Gibson didn't really find himself until about age 28; Cole's big breakout with Houston in 2018 came at 27. Gibson's famous 1968 season came at age 32, and he won a second Cy Young Award two years later. I can see Cole winning a couple of Cy Youngs in his 30s as well.
17. Jose Altuve
He has some good indicators on his ledger: Four straight 200-hit seasons, three batting titles, an MVP Award, a couple stolen base crowns, one of the most popular players in the game (at least until the cheating scandal, which could affect his case). The durability is a potential issue, as he's missed time each of the past three seasons and could be an ongoing concern given his physical stature. I don't want to overreact to his poor 2020, because a year ago he hit .298 with 31 home runs, but historically second base is a position where players don't age as well. He once was a reasonable bet for 3,000 hits, but those odds have diminished the past couple of years.
Similar Hall of Famer: Joe Morgan. I don't really like this comparison all that much, other than "small second basemen who had surprising power." It works, but Morgan was on another level. He walked way more often so he had much better OBPs, stole more bases (and Altuve has quit running) and then remained a dominant player into his 30s. Altuve's statistical output reminds me more of Ryne Sandberg -- a strong Hall of Fame candidate, but the not first-ballot lock like Morgan.
18. Paul Goldschmidt
In a sense, Goldschmidt has already had his necessary peak (four top-10 finishes, including two seconds and a third and four six-win seasons), so he's into the compiling phase of his career. It seems like he is still consolidating what he's going be as he now turns 33. He hit for power in 2019, but his average dipped to .260 after seven straight seasons of .286 or better. In 2020, he hit .304, but with less power. He's at 45.1 WAR, so you can do math as to what he needs to do.
Freeman through age 30: .295/.383/.509, 240 HR, 858 RBI, 38.8 WAR
Goldschmidt through age 30: .297/.398/.532, 209 HR, 710 RBI, 40.7 WAR
Similar Hall of Famer: Jeff Bagwell. Bagwell was better, but the all-around game is very similar: Power, good batting average, plus defense and excellent baserunning despite the lack of pure speed. Goldschmidt even had a 30-steal season while Bagwell had two.
19. Francisco Lindor
He's on his way as a power-hitting Gold Glove shortstop with three top-10 MVP finishes and four five-win seasons through age 26. You never would have projected this when he was coming up through the minors, but Lindor already has three 30-homer seasons. The only shortstops with more are Alex Rodriguez (7), Ernie Banks (5) and Miguel Tejada (4).
Similar Hall of Famer: Roberto Alomar. Lindor wears No. 12 in honor of his childhood hero, and while not exact mirrors since Lindor plays a different position and has more power, they are similar in their ability to beat you in so many ways and playing the game with flair and charisma.
TIER IV: THE SKY IS THE LIMIT
20. Juan Soto
He was great as a 19-year-old, great as a 20-year-old and a superhero as a 21-year-old, even if the shortened season meant it felt more like a movie trailer than a full-length feature.
Similar Hall of Famer: Ted Williams. Yeah, I'm dropping a Ted Williams comp for Soto. Outrageous? Well, sure, you don't compare anybody to the inner circle of inner circle Hall of Famers, but baseball will tell that is potential for Soto. Like Williams, he looks like a high-average hitter with elite plate discipline who will hit 35 home runs per season, although it will be interesting to see if Soto ultimately sacrifices some of the batting average for more power. I hope not. I like my .350 hitters.
21. Fernando Tatis Jr.
Writing about Ken Griffey Jr. after his rookie season, Bill James wrote, "OK, here's my rule. I don't like to try to project a player more than two steps ahead of himself. I have this spectrum in mind, stacked up something like this:
Superstar
Star
Quality Regular
Regular
Major League Fringe
AAA player
AA player
A Ball
Rookie Leagues
College Player"
You can add another step to the spectrum, putting Hall of Famer at the top. This is kind of where we are with this tier, young players who already are stars or superstars. You can debate whether it's fair to project them another step or two. In Tatis' case, he clearly has superstar ability, although we have to note that he's yet to do this over a full season since he was injured in 2019 and played 59 games in 2020.
Similar Hall of Famer: Ken Griffey Jr. It all checks: Son of a major leaguer, star at a young age, MVP talent and that "it" factor that makes them even more special.
22. Ronald Acuna Jr.
His career average per 162 games: .281/.371/.538, 42 home runs, 32 stolen bases, 130 runs, 100 RBIs. Do that another 10 years and you're inner-circle Hall of Fame. His percentile rankings among all players in 2020:
Hard-hit rate: 99%
Walk rate: 99%
Sprint speed: 97%
Strikeout rate: 14%
Similar Hall of Famer: Reggie Jackson. That last category gets us to Reggie, who still holds the record for strikeouts, 33 years after he retired. If there is a flaw in Acuna's game, it's the high strikeout rate, which will prevent him from being a .300 hitter. He fanned 188 times in 2019 and 60 times in 46 games in 2020. The comparison works in other ways as well. Reggie was very fast early in his career when he came out of Arizona State (he played football there). Both are, shall we say, not lacking in confidence. Now the Braves just need Acuna to turn into Mr. October.
23. Cody Bellinger
With a 39-homer rookie season and a 47-homer MVP season, plus great defense at multiple positions, we've already witnessed a Hall of Fame-caliber ceiling. He just has to play at that level on a consistent basis. Interestingly, none of his most similar players through age 24 are Hall of Famers: His top five are Prince Fielder, Darryl Strawberry, Adam Dunn, Jose Canseco and Juan Gonzalez. That doesn't factor in defense, however, an area that should help separate Bellinger from that group of sluggers.
Similar Hall of Famer: Larry Walker. There's the tall, lefty slugger thing going on, but this is about the supreme athleticism. Some scouts called Walker the most naturally gifted player they ever saw -- remember, he barely played baseball growing up in Canada. Bellinger likewise makes the game looks easy at times.
TIER V: HAVE SOME WORK TO DO
24. Alex Bregman
He's had two MVP-caliber seasons and, like Altuve, you don't want to read too much into 2020 since he had a monster 2019 when he hit .296 with 41 home runs and 119 walks. I guess he could go in Tier IV after Lindor, but he's the same age and a little behind in WAR (28.7 to 23.4) and counting stats.
Similar Hall of Famer: Chipper Jones. Different physiques, as Chipper has about 5 inches on Bregman, but similar bios and style of game. Jones was the No. 1 overall pick in the draft and Bregman No. 2. Both were minor league shortstops before moving to third base in the majors. Both combine power with walks and a high batting average relative to the league. Both are quintessential baseball rats. Chipper won his MVP award in his age-27 season. Bregman is entering his age-27 season.
25. Chris Sale
He's coming off a missing season after Tommy John surgery and sits at just 1,629 career innings and 109 wins, so he has work to do on the career length. The peak has been impressive, however: Seven straight top-six Cy Young finishes (although no firsts), a 3.03 ERA, two strikeout titles and the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of all time. During the live ball era (since 1920), his adjusted ERA of 140 ranks sixth among pitchers with at least 1,500 innings, behind Clayton Kershaw, Pedro Martinez, Lefty Grove, Hoyt Wilhelm and Roger Clemens.
Similar Hall of Famer: Umm ... Randy Johnson? I mean, how many tall, skinny left-handers who also throw 98 mph with a wipeout slider are in the Hall of Fame? Sale even has more career wins at this point in his career than Johnson (99). Of course, Johnson had just won his first Cy Young Award at age 31 (Sale's missing 2020 season) and would win four more. The fewest innings for a Hall of Famer starter: Dizzy Dean, with 1,967.
26. Jose Ramirez
This is a player I didn't anticipate including, but Ramirez just completed his age-27 season and has finished third, third and second in three of the past four MVP votes. He has a well-rounded game and has established a high level of play with two seven-win seasons.
On the other hand, his most comparable player through age-27 is Hank Blalock -- a player I once included on this list.
Similar Hall of Famer: Kirby Puckett. Yes, we're going with the body type here, but it's also worth noting that Puckett hit just four home runs his first two seasons in the majors while Ramirez hit eight in his first two seasons. Puckett also had several high MVP finishes without ever winning (a second, two thirds and four other in the top 10).
27. Christian Yelich
I'm hesitant about including Yelich. No doubt, he had a tremendous two-year peak in 218-19, but many players have had two great seasons -- and that run came at ages 26 and 27, the age when most players will peak. OK, let me do a quick search here ... Yelich's 14.3 WAR at ages 26-27 ranks 31st among position players since World War II. This is actually a good barometer of Hall of Fame ability. Eighteen of the 30 ahead of him are already in the Hall of Fame and several more will be. Of the 30 right below him, 12 are in the Hall of Fame and a few more will get there. So, based on this one thin criteria, we can give Yelich a better than 50% chance of making Cooperstown.
Similar Hall of Famer: Chuck Klein. An old-timer here from the 1930s, Klein is a weak Hall of Famer with just 46.0 career WAR, but he had a big peak, including finishing second and first in the MVP voting at ages 26 and 27 ... just as Yelich did. He also hit left-handed and combined power (he led his league four times in home runs) with speed (they didn't run much back then, but he led the league once in steals).
28. Jon Lester
To some degree, Lester's chances are tied to how Andy Pettitte, Mark Buehrle and Tim Hudson ultimately fare, similar Cy Young-less borderline candidates (heck, let's throw Cole Hamels in as well):
Lester: 193-111, 3.60 ERA, 119 ERA+, 45.0 WAR
Hamels: 163-122, 3.43 ERA, 123 ERA+, 58.4 WAR
Pettitte: 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 117 ERA+, 60.7 WAR
Buehrle: 214-160, 3.81 ERA, 117 ERA+, 60.0 WAR
Hudson: 222-133, 3.49 ERA, 120 ERA+, 56.5 WAR
I think a factor here is the old "Does he feel like a Hall of Famer when I watch him?" test. I get "Jon Lester, Hall of Famer," but not Hamels, Buehrle or Hudson. Lester's career is also narratively more interesting than those three, with the World Series rings (2007 Red Sox, 2013 Red Sox, 2016 Cubs) and excellent postseason history (2.51 ERA over 154 innings). Getting to 200 wins this season will help and combined with that postseason record, I think he (and Pettitte) get in, probably via a veterans committee of the distant future.
Similar Hall of Famer: Lefty Gomez. We need to start nicknaming pitchers "Lefty" again. Gomez won just 189 games, but went 6-0 in seven World Series starts as the Yankees won five World Series in five trips when Gomez was on the team in the 1930s.
29. Stephen Strasburg
While there is still a certain "What if" feeling about his career, Strasburg has some positive markers as he enters his age-32 season: 112 wins, 3.19 ERA, the great postseason run in 2019. He will have to come back from the finger injury, but 2019 was one of his best seasons. Unlike Madison Bumgarner, who has similar career numbers but appears to be in decline, I feel Strasburg is a better bet to continue pitching well deep into his 30s.
Similar Hall of Famer: John Smoltz. Through age 31:
Strasburg: 112-59, 3.19 ERA, 129 ERA+, 32.1 WAR
Smoltz: 146-105, 3.36 ERA, 120 ERA+, 38.8 WAR
Not quite there, reasonably close (and Smoltz would miss his age-33 season after his own Tommy John surgery).
30. Anthony Rendon
We mentioned in the intro that current BBWAA voters are placing more emphasis on peak value than career numbers. This helps Rendon. He's had three six-win seasons, three top-six MVP finishes and is still at the top of his game. The shortened 2020 season really hurts a guy like Rendon, as he was on pace for another potential six-win season and big numbers. He's signed with the Angels for six more seasons, so if he goes something like this: 6 WAR, 5.5 WAR, 4.5 WAR, 4 WAR, 3 WAR, 2 WAR. That's 25 WAR, getting him to 56 in his career, which puts him in the discussion.
Similar Hall of Famer: Al Simmons. Simmons hit .380 four times. Rendon would have as well if he had played in the 1920s and '30s.
31. Jacob deGrom
He has a lot of work to do and he turns 33 in June, but with two Cy Young Awards, a 2.61 career ERA and 35.9 WAR, you can argue he's already more than halfway to Cooperstown. I like his chances to remain one of the best in the game for several years more years, and if the standard for wins is lowered, he has a shot. This could also be a Johan Santana situation, where there just won't be the career longevity (and wins) to get in.
Similar Hall of Famer: Dazzy Vance. The best pitcher in the National League in the second half of the 1920s, Vance reached the majors in 1915, but he battled injuries and didn't win his first major league game until 1922, when he was 31. He was a hard thrower who threw over the top and led the league in strikeouts seven straight times, won an MVP award and pitched into his 40s, finishing with 197 wins. Like Vance, deGrom will have to continue pitching well deep into his 30s.
32. Carlos Correa
When he reached the majors at 20, he reminded us of Alex Rodriguez, with power and speed and the range and instincts to play shortstop despite his size. At his best, he hit .315 and slugged .550 in 2017, which comes with some questions for any Astro, and also hit 21 home runs in 75 games in 2019. Can he stay healthy, though? He averaged just 98 games from 2017 to '19. Mark this one as a gut call.
Similar Hall of Famer: Ernie Banks. Correa has yet to have a 40-homer season (Banks had five), but if it ever does come together for Correa, the style of production could be similar. Banks won his back-to-back MVP awards at 27 and 28 (Correa is entering his age-26 season), but had to move to first base at 31 because of back problems. Warning: Correa's most similar player through age 25 is Troy Tulowitzki.
33. Buster Posey
Yeah, I don't know about this one either. Posey has just 140 home runs, 673 RBIs, 595 runs and 1,380 hits. No modern player has been elected with totals that low across the board except Phil Rizzuto (who missed three prime years due to World War II). It wouldn't surprise me if 2021 -- the final year of his contract if the Giants buy out his 2022 option -- ends up being Posey's final season. An obvious comparison is Thurman Munson, who like Posey won an MVP award and was a key player on multiple World Series winners. Munson ended up with a short career after dying in a plane crash and never received more than 15% of the vote from the BBWAA:
Posey: 1258 G, .302/.370/.456, 128 OPS+, 41.8 WAR
Munson: 1423 G, .292/.346/.410, 116 OPS+, 46.0 WAR
On the other hand, Posey has a terrific five-year peak from 2012 to 2016 when he was one of the best players in the game. He won those three World Series. His career WAR on FanGraphs, which incorporates catcher framing into its defensive metrics for recent seasons, is 52.7. (FanGraphs also ranks Russell Martin and Brian McCann higher than Posey, so maybe we best avoid that for now.)
Similar Hall of Famer: Frank Chance. Chance was the player/manager of the 1906-10 Cubs, who won four pennants and two World Series in five seasons. Elected as a player in 1946 (Joe Tinker and Johnny Evers were elected the same year), Chance was a regular for only six seasons, but was very good. (He was a first baseman, but did come up as a catcher.) With barely 5,000 plate appearances, it's one of the shortest careers for a Hall of Fame player.
TIER VI: THE NEXT GENERATION
34. Yordan Alvarez
We're now into the pure speculation part of our list. Alvarez showcased both power and the ability to hit for average during his rookie season in 2019. If he can match that production, he could rival Juan Soto as the best hitter in the majors over the next decade.
Similar Hall of Famer: Willie McCovey. Yep. Big, strong southpaw slugger (Alvarez is 6-foot-5, McCovey 6-foot-4). As I think Bill James once pointed out, McCovey was platooned early in his career (because the Giants also had Orlando Cepeda and couldn't play both at first base), his prime years came at Candlestick Park in a pitching era, he had some injuries, and he still hit 521 home runs.
35. Shane Bieber
He's 23-9 with a 2.84 ERA and 381 strikeouts in 291.2 innings the past two seasons. He's relatively young (26 in May), has a Cy Young under his belt, knows how to pitch and has a nice, clean delivery that will hopefully portend good health.
Similar Hall of Famer: Juan Marichal. Bieber doesn't have that magical high leg kick, but the route to success is similar, relying on command and changing speeds more than a blazing fastball.
"One National League hitter claims to have counted ten different speeds" on Marichal's fastball, Time magazine wrote in 1966. That sounds like Bieber to me.
36. Walker Buehler
He's 24-9 with a 3.15 ERA in his career, and he has to prove that he's durable and consistent and all that, but the stuff is ridiculous and he throws strikes.
Similar Hall of Famer: Red Ruffing. The ace of the Yankees in the late '30s and early '40s, Ruffing was a hard thrower who helped win six World Series titles. Just five to go for Buehler to match that.
37. Ozzie Albies
Like several others on this list, he came up at such a young age that he has a chance to compile some impressive career counting stats, with 3,000 hits a possibility. He had 69 extra-base hits in 2018 and 75 in 2019. Only six second basemen have at least three seasons with 69 extra-base hits, so he packs surprising punch for a small guy.
Similar Hall of Famer: Tim Raines. At least, from a physical standpoint -- 5-foot-8, both switch-hitters. Raines even came up as a second baseman. He was a classic leadoff hitter with speed and on-base skills, while Albies is more of a free swinger with more home run pop and less speed. Raines had a run from 23 to 27 as one of the top players in the majors. Albies will be 24 in 2021, a good age for him to take his game to the next level.
38. Luis Robert
He's certainly in the Best Tools Hall of Fame. He needs to clean up the approach and the swing-and-miss or he's unlikely to reach that potential, but he could be a Gold Glove center fielder with 35-home run power.
Similar Hall of Famer: Andre Dawson. Same build, same set of tools, right down to the aggressive approach at the plate. The young Dawson really could run before his knees went bad and he never did learn to take a walk (career high of 44), but he showed you can make the Hall of Fame with a .323 OBP.
39. Wander Franco
Kiley McDaniel's top prospect entering 2020, Franco should reach the majors this year, making him eligible for this list. Kiley's report: "Franco has one of the best contact rates in the minors, which is impressive on its own, but he was the age of a high school senior last year and was playing half of the season in High-A, where the average league age was 22 years old." Yes, it's reckless projecting a Class A player eight steps ahead, but this is what we do for this exercise. Don't try it at home!
Similar Hall of Famer: George Brett. Franco will hit line drives all over the field, just like Brett, not strike out much, just like Brett, and win batting titles, just like Brett.
40. Jarred Kelenic
Hey, I'm a Mariners fan -- let me dream.
Similar Hall of Famer: Duke Snider. Like Kelenic, a left-handed, power-hitting center fielder. Now the Mariners just need their Jackie Robinson, Roy Campanella, Pee Wee Reese and Gil Hodges.