Let's get right to it: I love the James McCann signing for the New York Mets, a four-year contract for $40 million-plus, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan. No, it's not as sexy as signing J.T. Realmuto, the best all-around catcher in the game right now, but here are three reasons this is the right move.
1. McCann has developed into a good player the past two seasons. Always a solid defensive catcher with Detroit, the Tigers let him go after a poor season at the plate in 2018, but he hit .276/.334/.474 with 25 home runs in 536 at-bats in 2019 and '20 with the White Sox. The underlying metrics suggest the improvement is legitimate: a higher hard-hit rate, better exit velocity, a more aggressive approach early in the count against fastballs.
Defensively, McCann's caught stealing rate of 36.3% is third best since 2015, behind only Martin Maldonado and Salvador Perez and just ahead of Realmuto. He also rates well in pitch framing. In 2020, Statcast numbers ranked McCann in the 88th percentile among catchers in framing (Realmuto also ranks high in this area). Anecdotal evidence applies here as well, as McCann has helped Lucas Giolito become one of the top starters in baseball, catching eight of his 12 starts in 2020 and all 29 in 2019. McCann could be the perfect antidote to help fix Steven Matz.
Add it up and McCann ranks fifth among catchers in WAR the past two seasons and fifth in wRC+. In fact, his 116 wRC+ (park-adjusted runs created) is better than Realmuto's 112. Granted, a lot of that damage has come against left-handed pitchers (.320/.405/.533), but he has still been decent versus righties (.259/.305/.451).
2. You avoid the risk that comes with signing a catcher to a long-term, $100 million deal. No, you don't win pennants based on dollars spent per WAR, but if McCann is two-thirds as valuable as Realmuto over the next four years at half the price, that creates more payroll flexibility for the rest of the roster. Catchers age in unpredictable ways, and a lot of insiders buy into the idea that many catchers develop late with the bat. That could be the case with McCann. Likewise, many catchers who peak early also burn out early, not to mention potential injury issues like those that affected Joe Mauer and Buster Posey after they starred in their 20s.
3. Signing McCann creates some certainty for the 2021 roster and the rest of the offseason. If the Mets kept negotiating with Realmuto, Trevor Bauer and George Springer, that would have left the door open for McCann to sign with another team -- with no guarantee that the Mets would sign any of the big three free agents. With McCann on board, they now have a catcher, they know a little more about how much is left in their budget and they can focus those remaining dollars on trying to sign Bauer and/or Springer.
At the beginning of the offseason, I outlined some different scenarios for the Mets. The one I liked best included the following signings: McCann, Bauer, Jackie Bradley Jr., Kolten Wong, Liam Hendriks -- what I called the pitching-and-defense option. They signed Trevor May to a two-year, $15.5 million deal, a cheaper signing than Hendriks but still a nice upgrade.
Bringing in a center fielder still makes sense, whether it's Springer on a big contract or Bradley on a shorter-term deal. Keep in mind that while Robinson Cano is off the payroll in 2021 due to his PED suspension, the Mets are still on the hook for $20.25 million in 2022 and 2023. Michael Conforto and Noah Syndergaard are also free agents, so Sandy Alderson has to develop a multiyear plan that will allow the Mets to compete with the Braves in the NL East.
Springer and Bauer are certainly worthy additions, and Steve Cohen apparently wants to spend, but you still have to make sure the money works. Maybe holding off on signing Springer or Bauer and instead going after one of the big free-agent shortstops next offseason is a smarter way to go. And don't rule out the possibility of a Francisco Lindor trade. The thin Mets farm system may not have the prospects Cleveland desires, but the Mets do have a major-league-ready shortstop to offer in either Andres Gimenez or Amed Rosario. We can all agree that the Mets aren't done this offseason.
As for Realmuto, his market shrinks by one team, but the McCann signing also helps establish what he might get. He has been worth 7.4 WAR the past two seasons, according to FanGraphs, compared to 3.8 for McCann, so the five-year, $110 million or so predictions we saw to kick of the offseason line up.
The Phillies, Nationals, Blue Jays and Yankees still look like the most likely destinations, although Eno Sarris of The Athletic made a good argument for the Astros. If Houston loses Springer and Michael Brantley this offseason, as is likely, it will need to find some offense. The Astros also have big money coming off the books after 2021 in Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke, so there is room for a splashy signing.