The Major League Baseball awards for 2020 are now in the books. So it's time to look ahead to next season, for fans who want to see not just what their teams will do but which of next year's top performers could put themselves in the mix for 2021 awards.
It's never too early to start speculating about who could earn hardware next season, whether they're veterans who might add to an already full trophy case or top phenoms in the mix for rookie honors. With that in mind, senior MLB columnists Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield weigh in, Brad with his favorites for each league's Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and MVP awards, Dave with his dark-horse candidates, and both of them with their picks for who will take home a trophy this time next year.
Jump to: AL Rookie | NL Rookie | AL Cy Young | NL Cy Young | AL MVP | NL MVP
AL Rookie of the Year
Brad's favorites: Wander Franco, Jarred Kelenic, Casey Mize
Winnowing down the AL ROY favorites to three names was not easy, as the 2021 rookie class in the junior circuit looks exceptionally deep. Adley Rutschman, Royce Lewis and Jo Adell were three other names I could have slipped in with no regret.
Neither Franco nor Kelenic has played in the majors, and because of service time considerations and the unknown impact that a lost 2020 season will have on prospect development, it might be bold to list them as favorites when we don't know for sure when they will debut. What we do know is that as soon as they land in the American League, they will be lineup fixtures. In Franco's case, as the consensus top prospect in baseball who draws unusually hyperbolic plaudits, the shortstop seems like a good bet to hit the ground running with Tampa Bay. Kelenic's hitting at the Mariners' alternate site during the regular season drew similar raves about the outfielder. Needless to say, I'm excited to see them both.
Tigers right-hander Mize is one of a few AL prospects -- like Randy Arozarena, Adell and Nate Pearson -- who got significant exposure to the majors in 2020 but who retain rookie status. We know Mize will get the opportunity, and if you can hold down a rotation spot for a full season in the major leagues as a rookie, you'll be in the awards hunt.
Dave's dark horses: How often does a Rookie of the Year come out of nowhere? Not too often, at least in recent years. Devin Williams, this year's NL winner, certainly qualifies, becoming the first reliever to win since Craig Kimbrel in 2011, but otherwise the only "dark horse" winner over the past decade was Jacob deGrom in 2014 (he was a 26-year-old rookie, too old to make top-prospect lists).
So even our dark-horse candidates are good prospects. Dane Dunning pitched well in seven starts for the White Sox (2-0, 3.97 ERA, 9.3 strikeouts per nine) and should be in the rotation on Opening Day, so playing time will weigh in his favor. White Sox teammate Nick Madrigal also retains his rookie status after hitting .340 in 29 games. The second baseman has no power and doesn't walk much, but with his elite contact skills, he projects as a .300 hitter. Seattle's Logan Gilbert hasn't pitched in the majors, so he will probably spend a few weeks in Triple-A, but he's pretty polished with a four-pitch arsenal, including a fastball that sits in the mid-90s. Orioles outfielder/first baseman Ryan Mountcastle hit .333/.386/.492 in 35 games. Cleveland starter Triston McKenzie had a 42-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Digging deeper, how about two more White Sox: Michael Kopech, who hasn't pitched since 2018 but remains a rookie, and Garrett Crochet, the team's first-round pick in 2020, who pitched six scoreless innings in the majors. If the White Sox keep him in the bullpen, he's an immediate weapon with his 100 mph fastball. If they develop him as a starter, he'll be in the minors working on his secondary pitches.
Brad's pick: Franco. The highest-ceiling rookie isn't always the clear choice in a Rookie of the Year race, and Franco won't turn 20 until spring training. But the reason I like his chances to put up big numbers at such a young age is the sheer array of tools he brings to the table. He has a preternatural ability to put the bat on the ball, and does so with power. He underscores those gifts with terrific strike zone judgment. What's not to like?
Dave's pick: Since I expect the Rays to play it conservatively with Franco and keep him in the minors for a couple of months, I'll jump on the Arozarena bandwagon after he hit .333 with 17 home runs in 141 at-bats including the postseason. I loved the all-fields power he displayed in the playoffs, and while he's not a big walker, he's not a wild hacker up there either. If he can stay as focused over 162 games as he was in October, he's going to put up some big numbers.
NL Rookie of the Year
Brad's favorites: Ke'Bryan Hayes, Sixto Sanchez, Ian Anderson
The truncated season and some tweaks in service time calculations mean it's possible that players who received Rookie of the Year votes in 2020 will be able to do the same in 2021. If one of them had actually won the award, he would not have been eligible to do so next season. Hayes absolutely mashed, hitting .376/.442/.682 over 24 games for the Pirates and flashing his Gold Glove potential at third base. He'll be there from the start in 2021.
Like Hayes, Anderson earned some ROY support in 2020, but with just 32⅓ regular-season innings under his belt, he'll get another shot next season. Similar to Arozarena, if postseason performance had been part of the consideration at ballot time, he might well have won the award. As a rotation stalwart going forward for a strong Braves team, all the elements are there for him to have a big 2021 season.
Miami's Sanchez is similar to Mize in awards prospects, albeit with more of a track record in the majors. Still, they are both elite pitching prospects with significant exposure in the bigs who are all but assured a turn every fifth day next season. Like Anderson and Hayes, Sanchez earned some ROY support in 2020.
Honorable mention goes to the Giants' Joey Bart, who would be a prime contender with everyday at-bats. Alas, with Buster Posey returning to San Francisco after opting out in 2020, those at-bats might not be there.
Dave's dark horses: Padres starters Luis Patino and MacKenzie Gore are hardly dark horses since both are top-25 prospects, but they could be impact starters in 2021. Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson is another top prospect who retains his rookie status; he struggled in his debut but performed better the final two weeks and should have a regular gig in 2021. Braves center fielder Cristian Pache projects as an elite defender, although the bat is still developing. Diamondbacks catcher/center fielder Daulton Varsho -- yes, you read that correctly -- struggled in his initial taste of the majors and probably needs to settle on one position, but he had a nice contact-oriented approach in the minors.
Brad's pick: Hayes. While I'm aware that Hayes is not actually a .376 hitter, I grew very enamored of his play during his late-season stint in Pittsburgh. One thing that his big early numbers will do is earn him a spotlight as he tries to continue his success in a full season. His defense will constantly be showing up on "plays of the night" compilations. He can run. If he can hit 15-20 homers, I think he'll end up as Rookie of the Year.
Dave's pick: I have this as Sanchez versus Anderson, both so impressive during their short stints in 2020. Let's go with Sanchez based on his elite upper-90s fastball and five-pitch mix. Anderson has that wipeout changeup, but it will be interesting to see what kind of adjustments he makes once hitters start seeing that pitch more -- the Dodgers basically laid off it in the National League Championship Series and Anderson ended up walking seven in seven innings.
AL Cy Young
Brad's favorites: Gerrit Cole, Shane Bieber, Lucas Giolito
Trevor Bauer would land in the top three of either league. Alas, we don't know which league he'll end up in, so consider him an honorable-mention pick in both circuits. If he actually finds a team that lets him make 30 starts next season, then consider him the favorite in that team's league.
Cole is always a safe bet for awards consideration and once again will be backed by a powerful lineup with the Yankees. Cleveland's Bieber was so dominant in becoming a unanimous Cy Young selection in 2020 that he'd have to drop off considerably to be out of the running in 2021. There was nothing fluky about what he did. And I'll tab Giolito as my third pick, as a traditional No. 1 starter with the stuff and durability to win a lot of games and a dynamic White Sox offense and defense to back him up.
Dave's dark horses: I agree with Brad -- Cole, Bieber and Giolito would be my top three AL starters as well. If Bauer signs with the Yankees, then he's part of that group as well. It's hard to find a dark-horse candidate. How about Framber Valdez? The Astros left-hander is coming off a strong season and postseason and looks as though he can handle 200 innings (he averaged seven innings per start in 2020). Zach Plesac is a deep dark horse, but it's hard to ignore what he did in his eight starts with the Indians (2.28 ERA, 57-6 K-BB ratio).
Brad's pick: Bieber. It's hard to establish yourself as a bona fide ace in today's game, given the hyper-specialization of pitching staffs. However, when a pitcher reaches that level, he stays there until injuries get in the way. Bieber is at the same level in the AL that deGrom is in the NL. Cole could certainly match Bieber pitch for pitch, while swamping him with something like 23 wins because he toils for a much stronger club. However, the gap between Bieber and everyone else in 2020 was large enough that it's hard to pick against him right now.
Dave's pick: Cole. My one issue with Bieber? He faced only AL Central and NL Central teams in 2020, and the only good offensive team among the 10 was the White Sox. Cole will have to cut down on his home runs to win his first Cy Young Award.
NL Cy Young
Brad's favorites: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler
There is some great starting pitching in the National League right now. Scherzer is coming off what was for him a down season, but he also showed that he can still dominate an opponent on any given day. There is still no other pitcher I'd rather watch in baseball. After three years of elite pitching, there is zero reason to expect a drop-off from deGrom. As for Buehler, after a hard-luck and uneven regular season in 2020, during October he reminded us of just how good he is.
This list could have easily been just as strong had it included Yu Darvish, Max Fried, Aaron Nola and Jack Flaherty. Like I said, lots of great starting pitching in the NL these days.
Dave's dark horses: Corbin Burnes had a dominant 59 innings for the Brewers and will have to show he's durable to do it over 30-plus starts, but he has ace potential. Teammate Brandon Woodruff is right there as well. Atlanta's Mike Soroka is coming off an Achilles tendon injury and isn't a big strikeout guy, which can hurt him in Cy Young voting, but he's an elite ground ball machine who limits hard contact. Did Brad mention the Padres' Dinelson Lamet or Mike Clevinger? Lamet just finished fourth in the voting, so maybe he's not a dark horse, but we should list him somewhere.
Brad's pick: Given the strength of the Dodgers, if Buehler is able to make 32 starts next season, it's not hard to envision him challenging for a pitching triple crown and winning something like 24 games. He's going to win a Cy Young some day, and with the motivation of a so-so 2020 in place, I think it'll be in 2021.
Dave's pick: DeGrom has a 2.10 ERA over the past three seasons and has led the NL in strikeouts the past two, so he's the more obvious pick in a crowded field. The wild card with Buehler is how hard the Dodgers will push him. He did make 30 starts and pitch 182 innings in 2019, but the Dodgers have six good starters right now, and unless the Padres push them in the division race, that could be the upper limit for his workload in 2021, while deGrom topped 200 innings in 2017-19.
AL MVP
Brad's favorites: Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, Jose Ramirez
Trout's 2020 season was probably his worst, except for his short debut campaign back in 2011, and he was still on the perimeter of the MVP conversation. The Angels outfielder remains the favorite going forward, and it doesn't seem like that will change anytime soon, especially with Mookie Betts now in the other league.
The Astros' Bregman and the Indians' Ramirez join him on the list as two recent contenders, but in terms of their bodies of work, they and everyone else in the junior circuit remain a peg or two below Trout. Any number of others could break into contention, with Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge leaping to mind if he could stay healthy, or Cleveland's Francisco Lindor if he isn't traded to the NL, or Boston's Rafael Devers. But sizing up the AL MVP race from a speculative standpoint remains measuring Trout against the field, rather than Trout against any one player.
Dave's dark horses: The Angels' Anthony Rendon is hardly a dark horse, although he faces the same uphill battle as Trout, playing for a bad team that might not make the playoffs. In an otherwise close race, the guy on the playoff team has the advantage. We also have to see where Lindor ends up.
How about Yordan Alvarez? He's a designated hitter, so he'd have to be the best hitter in the league by several degrees, but consider that his prorated stats from his rookie season with the Astros in 2019 after 155 games gives us 48 home runs and 139 RBIs with a 1.067 OPS. Deep long shot: What if Arozarena really is a 1.000 OPS guy over a full season?
Brad's pick: Trout. I can't prove it, but I just don't think Trout was ever fully in shape during the 2020 season. Between the weird season and dealing with a newborn at home, he seemed a half-step off. Yet he had a .993 OPS and a valid MVP case. I do think that Trout needs to stay healthy for a full season to reassert his best-in-the-game status. A full season for him is probably 150 games. If he can do that, I think he'll have a monster season. A monster Trout season is an MVP season in any era. I also don't think the field is as strong in the AL, so if he's himself, his path is more clear than it would be in the NL.
Dave's pick: Yeah, you almost have to go with Trout by default, as no other AL player has been consistent year to year. Maybe that's a little bit of an insult to Ramirez, who has finished in the top three now in 2017, 2018 and 2020. I would take the field over Trout, but I'll take Trout over any other individual candidate.
NL MVP
Brad's favorites: Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Mookie Betts
Three names are not enough! Ronald Acuna Jr., Cody Bellinger, Freddie Freeman, Christian Yelich and Manny Machado could easily be in the top three.
Padres shortstop Tatis is on the verge of becoming the biggest star in the sport, if he's not there already. He also got jobbed a bit in the 2020 voting, so perhaps he'll get a bit of a makeup vote. Nationals outfielder Soto would have won the award in 2020 if not for missing games early because of COVID-19. What he's done over his first three seasons is frightening. Betts is Betts, and he's in his prime.
Dave's dark horses: Trea Turner had a monster 59 games for the Nationals (.335/.394/.588), including a big decrease in his strikeout rate. Let's see if he can do that over a full season and stay healthy. Fellow shortstop Corey Seager had his best offensive season for the Dodgers, hitting .300 for the first time since his rookie year with a career best OPS+. He's in his free-agent year, if you believe in that motivational factor.
A little more of an off-the-wall pick: Dodgers catcher Will Smith, who hit .289/.401/.579 with nearly as many walks as whiffs and has 23 career home runs in 284 at-bats. It's hard for a catcher to get enough playing time, but if the universal DH is kept, Smith can perhaps get some extra at-bats there.
Brad's pick: Soto. I'm thinking a 10-11-WAR season is in the offing for Soto. Just when you think he can't possibly get better, he gets better.
Dave's pick: Well, this is boring, as I'm going Soto as well. He hit .351/.490/.695. I know, it was just 47 games, but since 1950 only four qualifying batters have hit at least .350/.475/.675: Ted Williams (twice), Barry Bonds (twice), Frank Thomas and Soto.