A World Series championship is invariably built on moments that fans of the winning team will never forget. So it is for the 2020 Los Angeles Dodgers, who capped a season of dominance with the franchise's first title since the waning days of the Reagan administration.
I'm going to recount some of those moments and will try to do so with a little analytical rigor. If we look beyond the highlight-reel fodder that will dominate the obligatory Dodgers season documentary, what were the main steppingstones to this drought-snapping victory?
To narrow things down, I'll turn to a few different measures before making some subjective calls for the final list. In my toolbox will be win probability and championship probability from Baseball-Reference.com. I'm also going to use my own season projection and tracking model. Each morning, I run simulations of the remainder of the season to capture any changes from roster moves, injuries or the added data from on-the-field results. I keep a log of each of these simulations so that I can go back and see the shape of each team's season narrative. I do that to make lists like this.
Let's get to it. We'll do this not as a ranking, but as a chronological progression.
1. Feb. 10: The Dodgers trade for Mookie Betts.
The Dodgers will never regret trading for Betts. Let's be clear about that. However, I'm still of a mind that the Dodgers not only could have won the World Series without him, but they in fact were probably favorites to do so. Still, we saw what he brought to the club. Betts' production was MVP worthy but more than that, his all-around play helped bring L.A.'s crowded, talented roster a more cohesive, balanced focus than it has ever had.
It's worth noting that the Dodgers gave up some good players who would have helped them. Alex Verdugo, who went to Boston, is a really good player. Kenta Maeda, who went to Minnesota as part of the three-team structure of the Betts deal, is a really good pitcher.
Let's not forget that the Dodgers also added Brusdar Graterol in the deal, and he turned into a late-inning relief powerhouse. Still, this trade was and always will be about Betts, especially since he went on to sign an extension that will keep him in Dodger Blue for a long time.
After thinking my offseason fine-tuning of projections was complete in time for spring training, the Betts deal was the kind that can juggle the standings just when you think the major moves are done. As mentioned, I already had the Dodgers as roughly co-favorites with the New York Yankees to win it all. The first time I ran new projections after the Betts deal, the Dodgers' championship probability improved from 21% to 24%, which separated them from their neck-and-neck preseason battle with the Yankees for favorites status entering the regular season.
2. Oct. 7: Joe Kelly gets Eric Hosmer to hit into a game-ending groundout.
After injuries, COVID-19 opt-outs and other depth chart tweaking, the Dodgers started the season with a 25% shot at the title in my system. That number fluctuated between 25% and 32% through Los Angeles' dominant regular season. The Dodgers never lost more than two games in a row. They flirted for the lead in the NL West over the first three weeks of the season, but never were more than 1.5 games behind.
They went into the first place on Aug. 13 and never relinquished it, rolling to a 43-17 record by outscoring opponents by the fourth-best runs-per-game differential in team history. My system had the Dodgers with a 30% shot at the title when the regular season ended, easily the highest figure in the majors. The Dodgers were just too good to create much in the way of crucial championship leverage moments during the season.
Thus our remaining big moments will come from the Dodgers' playoff run. There wasn't much in the way of stress during Los Angeles' sweep of overmatched Milwaukee in the wild-card round. So we begin with Game 2 of the NLDS showdown with the San Diego Padres.
San Diego finished the regular season as the No. 2 team in my major league power rankings. Those ratings measure the "true" 162-game win value of a club. The Dodgers were at 106.8, while the Padres were at 97.1. San Diego was second, but not a close second, and they went into the division series with their top two starting pitchers -- Mike Clevinger and Dinelson Lamet -- ailing.
If it was going to be a series, it would have happened in this game. The Dodgers led 6-3 entering the ninth and were lucky to have that three-run edge. Cody Bellinger robbed Fernando Tatis Jr. of a two-run homer with a spectacular catch to end the seventh inning.
But in the ninth, Kenley Jansen faltered, opening up the one nagging narrative for the Dodgers during the playoffs. Dave Roberts pulled Jansen after the Padres had scored two runs. In came Kelly, who promptly walked the first two batters he faced, loading the bases for Hosmer.
Kelly jumped ahead in the count 1-2 but Hosmer dug out a curveball below his knees and mashed it at 101 mph ... right at Enrique Hernandez, who flipped it to Max Muncy to end the game. It was a routine play but not a routine moment. If Hosmer had placed his hard-hit ball better, the Padres would have likely evened the series.
Instead, the loss set the stage for the L.A. sweep. Their title odds jumped to a season-high 54%.
3. Oct. 14: Joc Pederson hits a three-run homer off Kyle Wright.
After dropping the first two games of the NLCS to the Atlanta Braves, the Dodgers were in dire straits. The Dodgers had come up one run short in Game 2 after falling behind 7-0, only to lose 8-7. The game ended on an A.J. Pollock groundout with the tying run on third base.
The Dodgers took all the drama out of Game 3 early, scoring 11 runs in the first, starting with seven runs they got off Wright. Pederson's blow was what turned the inning from good to an early blowout. There were two outs, two on, and Wright left a slider up over the outer half of the plate. Pederson went with the pitch and drove it into the left-center bullpen at Globe Life Field.
The rout was on. The Dodgers' title odds had dipped all the way to 21% with the two losses to start the series. The easy Game 3 win pushed them back to 31%.
4. Oct. 16: Will Smith homers off Will Smith.
The Braves took Game 4 by a 10-2 score, beating Clayton Kershaw and putting the Dodgers' season on the brink. Staring at a 3-1 deficit, the Dodgers' title odds tumbled to 15%, their lowest point since being eliminated by the Nationals in the 2019 LDS round. "What went wrong" pieces were already being written.
Atlanta then took a 2-1 lead into the sixth inning of Game 5. Betts singled and stole second, but was retired when he was caught off the bag on Justin Turner's groundout. Turner was on first base with two down with Muncy due up. Atlanta manager Brian Snitker summoned lefty reliever Will Smith into the game. Smith walked Muncy, setting up a matchup that threatened a rip in the space-time continuum -- Will Smith would be facing Will Smith.
Will Smith got the better of Will Smith, and perhaps in the Braves' universe, there was a bit of a time-space disruption because it turned the series. The Dodgers' young catcher went down and golfed a down-and-in fastball over the fence for a three-run shot. The Dodgers won 7-3 and upped their title probability to 28%.
5. Oct. 17: Corey Seager and Justin Turner go back-to-back.
With postseason standout Walker Buehler starting, the Dodgers liked their chances to even the series in Game 6 of the NLCS. They liked them even better after Seager and Turner hit back-to-back solo homers during a three-run first off Atlanta ace Max Fried. It was all the scoring they needed. L.A. won 3-1, tying the series and pushing its title odds to 45%.
6. Oct. 18: Cody Bellinger hits pennant-winning homer.
The decisive game of the NLCS was a nail-biter, with the Braves jumping on top early, the Dodgers knotting the score in third, and Atlanta going back up 3-2 on a fourth-inning RBI single from Austin Riley.
Hernandez tied the score with homer off A.J. Minter to lead off the sixth, setting the stage for Bellinger in the seventh. Chris Martin threw a sinker that didn't sink, and Bellinger turned the cookie into a 400-foot homer to right-center. Julio Urias had already come on out of the bullpen for the Dodgers, and he threw three perfect innings to nail down the win.
According to Baseball-Reference.com, Bellinger's blast had the highest championship probability added (10.5%) of any play for the Dodgers during their title run. The Dodgers had won their third NL pennant in four years and headed to the World Series with a 70% shot at winning it all.
7. Oct. 23: Walker Buehler strikes out Randy Arozarena.
Buehler has crafted a résumé as a great October pitcher. Arozarena emerged from nowhere to break postseason records held by Babe Ruth. When Buehler struck out Arozarena with one on to end his Game 3 outing, it capped a dominant 10-strikeout performance in which he looked early on like someone who wanted to join a World Series club that has just one member: Don Larsen.
Behind Buehler, the Dodgers cruised to a 6-2 win and upped their title odds to 82%.
8. Oct. 25: Dave Roberts takes the ball from Clayton Kershaw.
The Dodgers were one strike away from seizing a commanding 3-1 lead, but unsung Rays outfielder Brett Phillips looped a soft single that resulted in two runs as the Rays took Game 4 with an 8-7 win in one of the greatest World Series games ever played. Tampa Bay evened the series and grabbed the momentum, with the Dodgers' title odds dropping to 66%.
The Tampa Bay momentum was halted by Kershaw, who hopefully will never again have to answer a "narrative" or "legacy" question -- beyond the ones he refused to answer during his Game 6 postgame news conference. ("Those are bad questions," he said, and yet still seemed jovial while saying it.)
The Dodgers led 4-2 when Roberts replaced him during the sixth inning, and that ended up as the final score. Kershaw came out the game with two wins and a 2.31 ERA in the World Series. The Dodgers' title probability climbed to 87%. The end was in sight.
9. Oct. 27: Mookie Betts doubles off Nick Anderson.
The key moment of the last game of the World Series was a managerial decision, when the Rays' Kevin Cash pulled Blake Snell in the sixth inning after 73 pitches, though he had allowed one hard hit, one soft hit and struck out nine. After the game, Betts said that Snell leaving the game was a "breath of fresh air." Once Betts exhaled, he roped a double off Anderson, the Rays' best reliever, sending Austin Barnes to third base.
Betts went to third on Anderson's wild pitch while Barnes scored. Betts scored on Seager's grounder to first base, even though Ji-Man Choi was playing in to cut off the run. Betts was off on contact and raced home in 3.2 seconds, diving home just ahead of Choi's throw to catcher Mike Zunino.
For years to come, the Rays and their fans will be debating whether the right pitcher was in the game at that moment. The Dodgers have no such quibble: In Betts, they had the right guy up at the plate to spark a title-winning rally.
10. Oct. 27: Julio Urias strikes out Willy Adames.
Just as he did to close out the NLCS, Urias came into a high-stakes clinching situation and was once again nothing short of perfect. Roberts gave him the ball to get the last out of the seventh. Urias got it. He rolled through the eighth and earned a shot at the ninth. Then he ended over three decades of Dodger agony by locking up Mike Brosseau and Adames with called third strikes. Urias faced seven and retired seven.
The Dodgers would not have navigated this treacherous postseason without Urias, whose excellence and flexibility allowed Roberts to align his bullpen perfectly, even with Jansen's former infallibility now a memory. Urias' postseason line is a stunner: six games, two starts, 4-0 record, one save, 23 innings, 11 hits, 1.17 ERA, 29 strikeouts, four walks.
And when Adames took strike three on a 97 mph fastball on the inner part of the plate, it put a punctuation mark on so many things in the Dodgers' universe. The Dodgers were champions. Their championship probability: 100%.