While they certainly benefited from the expanded playoff field, the Toronto Blue Jays qualified as a pleasant surprise in making it to the postseason for the first time since 2016 behind an exciting young core of position players. Unfortunately, their stay didn't last long as they were swept out of the wild-card round by the Tampa Bay Rays.
David Schoenfield takes a look at where the Blue Jays stand and answers three key questions for the club moving forward to 2021 and beyond.
Toronto Blue Jays
Notable free agents: Ken Giles, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, Jonathan Villar, Matt Shoemaker, Anthony Bass, Joe Panik, Chase Anderson (club option), Rafael Dolis (club option)
Trade candidates: ???
Extension candidate: Teoscar Hernandez
1. Who is going to be in the rotation?
The Blue Jays spent a lot of resources filling out their starting rotation, including in-season trades for Ray, Walker and Ross Stripling, but other than free agent Hyun-Jin Ryu, it was pretty much a disaster. Tanner Roark signed a two-year deal but had big issues with the long ball. Rookie Nate Pearson looked great, then scuffled and got hurt. Anderson has a $9.5 million club option that probably won't be picked up after his struggles (including a record-tying five-homer inning). Trent Thornton came up with a sore elbow and Shoemaker missed time with a lat strain.
For 2021, it figures to be Ryu, a hopefully healthy Pearson and Roark getting another chance, and then question marks. The Jays do have options and it will be interesting to see whether they give some of the younger guys a chance -- such as Anthony Kay, Ryan Borucki and Tom Hatch, who all spent 2020 in the bullpen -- and Stripling was a solid starter/long man for the Dodgers. Prospects such as Simeon Woods Richardson and Alek Manoah are on more of a 2022 timetable than 2021. The taste of the postseason was nice, but right now there is no sure No. 2 starter behind Ryu.
2. Do the Jays need another big bat?
Hernandez had a breakout season, with the Statcast numbers to reinforce his rate of production. Still, he's a high-strikeout, low-walk guy, so you always worry about regression. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. can hit. Cavan Biggio has proven he can get on base and Bo Bichette produced again, albeit around a stint on the IL. He just needs to do what he does for 150 games and he's a star. That's your core. Notice who I didn't mention? Vladimir Guerrero Jr. does have a top-level hard-hit rate (90th percentile) and doesn't strike out too much, but those abilities haven't yet translated into big numbers. He appears ready for a breakout, but will need to improve his launch angle to maximize his power. If he takes his offense to another level and Rowdy Tellez stabilizes the DH position, the Toronto offense could be even better. If there are concerns about Hernandez regressing and Guerrero not improving, they'll need to upgrade elsewhere -- third base or catcher. Somebody who could be on the trade block: Nolan Arenado.
3. Who is the closer?
With Giles injured most of the season and heading into free agency, journeymen Bass (claimed off waivers last October) and Dolis (who spent the past four years in Japan and hadn't pitched in the majors since 2013) picked up most of the saves. That worked out much better than expected, but Toronto can't count on a similar scenario for 2021. The Blue Jays really have to rethink the entire back end of their bullpen, even beyond bringing Dolis back. Adding a free-agent closer such as Liam Hendriks or Alex Colome makes sense, or even gambling on Kirby Yates coming off elbow surgery.