While 2020 will always be remembered as the year of the coronavirus pandemic, this 60-game sprint of an MLB season might also rightly be recalled in the future as the Year of the Injury. In just seven weeks, there have been 357 stints on the injured list (not including players missing time due to COVID-19) compared to 585 stints in 2018 and 574 in 2019, both seasons of normal length. While the exact cause of this jump can be debated, the result of it cannot.
As the season approaches its denouement, having players return from injury is the last big boost a team can get in the push toward the postseason. With 25 of baseball's 30 teams within five games of a playoff spot entering play Thursday, every win, every run, can make a difference. So let's sort out the injury returns, from the big to the little to the inconsequential.
The "very big deal" tier
Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
The Yankees are 16th in baseball in runs scored; they haven't finished a season that low since 2016. A healthy Yankees squad had been expected to steamroller the American League, but instead the team is fighting just to make the postseason field. Just one of Judge or Stanton returning would be a gigantic addition. Getting both back could right the ship instantly. There is no solid return date for either Yankees slugger.
Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
The Astros could have invented a magic, mind-reading garbage can and they still would have been hurt by losing Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander for 2020. The team is not likely to fall behind the Mariners or Angels in the AL West, so making the playoffs as the division runner-up isn't really in question, but getting 2019's AL Cy Young winner back would make all those postseason matchups look better. Astros manager Dusty Baker said Thursday he was hopeful Verlander would return by the end of September.
Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
Sure, the Jays continued to win after losing everyone's favorite bounty hunter, Boba Chette, to a sprained knee. But they're undeniably a better team with him. Bichette's career line in the majors stands at .323/.366/.595, one of the best 60-game starts you'll find from a shortstop. It would have seemed blasphemous to say this before 2019, but I think Bichette has passed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the team's pecking order. Bichette has played in simulated games and could return this weekend.
Max Fried and Cole Hamels, Atlanta Braves
When healthy, Fried and Hamels address the same problem in Atlanta: a disappointing rotation. Ian Anderson has been fun, but with Mike Soroka out until 2021, the loss of Fried last week to back tightness, combined with Hamels not having pitched yet in 2020, have made a thin group downright gaunt. Braves starters not named Fried have combined for a 7.42 ERA this year. The Braves are confident Fried's injury is a short-term issue and Hamels could be activated next week.
Cincinnati has been plagued by an immensely confusing .236 BABIP by their hitters, a number that historically is about what you'd expect from a pitcher. It would be great if Senzel also could fix whatever is wrong with Joey Votto, but that might be a bit greedy. The Reds need just enough offense to support a top-tier rotation and Senzel would get them closer to that point. Reds manager David Bell said Thursday that Senzel is "getting pretty close" but did not offer a specific date for his return.
James Paxton, New York Yankees
I know, I know, I'm making a reference to Paxton being healthy. But with the Yankees finding themselves in a playoff race, every last bit of help would be welcome. Manager Aaron Boone said Thursday that Paxton, suffering from a strained left flexor tendon, had a setback, however, so the idea of seeing him on a mound could be a pipe dream.
The "sizable boost" tier
Kwang-Hyun Kim, St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have 23 games scheduled over the next 18 days. They've already put Carlos Martinez back in the rotation, but they're going to need every starter they can find, at least as long as they're in playoff contention. I remain disappointed the team wasn't able to pick up even a back-end innings-eater for the rotation at the trade deadline. Kim was diagnosed with a kidney ailment after being hospitalized last week and it is unclear whether he'll pitch again this season.
Jose Quintana and Tyler Chatwood, Chicago Cubs
Don't fret too much about Chatwood's 5.30 ERA; he was downright dominating in his first two starts this season, with none of the usual command issues, before back and elbow injuries popped up. Quintana hasn't met the expectations that led the Cubs to give up Eloy Jimenez for him, but the Cubs have been reeling of late and the rotation needs whatever reinforcements it can get. Both have begun throwing, with Quintana a possibility to pitch next week.
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Normally, getting someone like Altuve back from injury would be a top-tier addition, but I felt a downgrade was fair given he has been an offensive mess this year. At .224/.284/.322, Altuve is having his worst season as a professional and one wonders if it might take a season reset in 2021 to put things right. At the very least, there's more uncertainty than usual for the 2017 AL MVP.
Cobb is a mid-rotation starter at best these days, but he has been respectable in 2020, and with the Orioles teetering on the edge of the wild-card race, the additional boost is needed. The O's weren't going to trade prospects for short-term help at the trade deadline -- nor should they have -- so Cobb returning does matter. He's penciled in to pitch in Friday's doubleheader against the Yankees.
You can't expect Nelson Cruz to hit all the Twins' homers, can you? It's not a sure thing that Kepler will return to his superior 2019 form, but he certainly can't help on the IL. Minnesota's offense has been largely reliant on Cruz and Miguel Sano, unlike last year's well-rounded attack. Kepler (groin) is eligible to come off the IL next week.
Ken Giles, Jordan Romano and Nate Pearson, Toronto Blue Jays
Pearson rejoining the rotation would rank higher, but it's likely that his return would be in the bullpen, which makes sense given his elbow injury and very high ranking in the team's future plans. But it does blunt the impact of a possible return. If the Blue Jays got all three back for the playoffs, it would make their bullpen one of the scarier ones to face in October. Giles could be back this weekend, and Romano and Pearson are at least a week away.
The "nice but not earth-shattering" tier
Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers
This isn't a slight to Turner but a compliment to the Dodgers. On most teams, getting Turner back would make a huge difference, but the Dodgers have both an incredibly deep team and the easiest road to the playoffs of any team in baseball. Just for fun, I ran the numbers in ZiPS for the Dodgers' playoff probability if they simply forfeited their 16 remaining games and went on a nice vacation. They still had a 78% chance of making the playoffs.
Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer, San Diego Padres
Pham was a nice pickup, but with the Padres cruising and Jurickson Profar finally showing a pulse filling in at left field, Pham's return isn't as essential as it might have looked earlier. Hosmer has finally joined the fly ball revolution and it has paid dividends, but again, the team added significant depth at the deadline and only the loss of Fernando Tatis Jr. or Manny Machado could really cause the team to stumble offensively.
Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants
It's looking like if the Shark returns this season -- he has thrown simulated games -- it will be in the bullpen, a place the Giants have been surprisingly weak this season. At -1.1 WAR, the relief corps ranks 28th overall in 2020 and an extra arm certainly would not hurt.
Wade Miley, Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are fighting for their playoff lives, but the team's problem isn't the rotation, which ranks sixth in baseball with a 3.69 ERA (and the Reds play in a better hitters' park than four of the five teams ahead of them). Miley had more soreness in his shoulder than expected after Wednesday's side session, so his timetable is up in the air.
Matz's potential return ranks this high only because of the state of the Mets' rotation. Matz's biggest problem this year has been home runs and that tends to be a volatile measure for a pitcher. Even so, I think I'd take Matz over Michael Wacha, Robert Gsellman or Rick Porcello at this point, which is as faint praise as it sounds. Mets manager Luis Rojas said Wednesday that Matz has been throwing and feeling good but didn't specify when he might be back.
The "meh" tier
It's not that I don't like Puk, but his latest shoulder setback has decreased the chances he can return at all and increased the chances that if he does, he will be limited and in the bullpen. If Oakland is not confident enough to let Puk throw 98 out of the pen, they have enough depth to survive without him and should shut him down for the year.
Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox
Rodon is still playing only catch, but there remains a possibility he can return before the end of the season. Unfortunately, he hasn't been sharp and has missed a great deal of time the past two seasons because of injury, and the White Sox will make the playoffs either way. If Rodon has thrown his last pitch with the White Sox, it's kind of a sad end; he was someone the team intended to build around years ago and it's unfortunate he hasn't gotten to be a real participant in the team's resurgence.
Brendan Rodgers, Colorado Rockies
Rodgers might be the best second baseman on the Rockies, but even before his injury, the team showed very little interest in finding out if that were the case. I don't imagine this has changed while he has missed time because of a shoulder strain. Hopefully he'll be traded to a team this winter that doesn't appear to think Chris Owings is a hot, young prospect.