How long every MLB team projects to be in the playoff race in 2020

If you ventured over to FanGraphs' Playoff Odds page at the beginning of August last year, you would have seen that the playoff picture for Major League Baseball was quite clear. Nine teams sat with a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs, with three others at less than 1% and two more having less than a 5% chance at October baseball. Essentially half the teams were out of the running, with only a half-dozen more teams falling out of the races for a postseason slot over the final two months.

The short season in 2020 combined with expanded playoffs means every team still has a shot at the playoffs today, but 14 teams will fall out over the next two months. Below, I move the calendar forward and project when those 14 unfortunate teams will drop out of the playoff race.

Aug. 10: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates traded away Starling Marte and lost Chris Archer for the season before it started. Josh Bell is the team's best position player and he projects barely above average. Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove and Mitch Keller could be better than average, but the Pirates are a team without a player who projects as an All-Star right now, and that isn't good enough in a competitive NL Central Division. A hot start might have kept them in the race, but with just two wins in their first seven games, the Pirates will be out of it in another week.

Aug. 17: Seattle Mariners, Miami Marlins, Baltimore Orioles

The Mariners, Orioles and Marlins all have tough schedules, and the Marlins' season has been complicated by an unfortunate COVID-19 outbreak. We don't yet know what kind of team Miami will be fielding the rest of the way, but even with strong recoveries, the Marlins weren't going to make a playoff run this year.

The Mariners have some interesting starters, with Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi, Justus Sheffield and Taijuan Walker. In the lineup, Kyle Lewis is off to a sizzling start, and if they could repeat last year's 13-2 start they might stick around until mid-September. A record below .500 after 10 games will make a playoff berth nearly impossible in a couple of weeks.

There was just one team with playoff chances below 5% when the season started. The Orioles have one of the tougher schedules in baseball, and without a monster start to the season, they simply don't have what it takes to last. They have started the season on a decent run with Hanser Alberto and Jose Iglesias leading the charge, but this rebuilding team doesn't have what it takes to stay competitive much longer.

Aug. 24: Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals

The Tigers and Royals don't necessarily have a lot more talent than the trio of teams in the first two tiers, but their weaker schedules and competition might keep them thinking about 2020 for an extra week or two. The Tigers have two of the top pitching prospects in baseball in Casey Mize and Matt Manning, but it isn't clear if the pair will see the majors this year. Detroit has started off credibly, but the lineup and depth are lacking, even in a short season.

The Royals have a bunch of position players who can produce, like Jorge Soler and Adalberto Mondesi, along with veterans Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez. But top to bottom, the Royals don't have staying power, even with a fairly weak schedule.

Aug. 31: San Francisco Giants

While being in the same division as the Dodgers is going to put the division title out of reach, the changed playoff format and the lack of good teams in the West beyond the Dodgers keep the Giants in the thick of it for a bit. With the second-place team in the division guaranteed a playoff berth, either the Padres, Diamondbacks or Rockies would need to run away with second place to finish off the Giants. San Francisco isn't necessarily good, but 30 wins might be enough to get into the playoffs, and that goal should still be in reach for the first half of the season. As fun as Mike Yastrzemski seems, his hot start can't carry the team all year. There might be enough separation at the trade deadline to see the Giants out of the race.

Sept. 14: Colorado Rockies, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox

The Rockies, Rangers, Red Sox and Blue Jays all have enough good parts on their teams to think they have a shot this season. The Rockies have Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story and German Marquez to lead them. Texas has Joey Gallo and a trio of good starting pitchers -- even with Corey Kluber sidelined -- in Lance Lynn, Mike Minor and Kyle Gibson. The Blue Jays have improved depth in their rotation and a potentially exciting young core of talent starting with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Nate Pearson and Bo Bichette. Even with Mookie Betts a memory, the Red Sox still have Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts.

All four clubs also have deficiencies that will probably keep them out of the playoffs. Even with their fast start, the Rockies have too many holes that their stars can't overcome and a questionable bullpen. The Rangers have a poor group of position players they didn't supplement in the offseason. The Blue Jays are still a year away from fully contending as their young players develop and they perhaps add one more big free agent. The Red Sox traded away Betts and David Price, while Chris Sale got hurt and Eduardo Rodriguez apparently suffered a severe complication from the coronavirus. Those losses are likely too much to overcome.

Heartbreak city at season's end: Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets

The Phillies, Mets and D-backs all have good teams with a really good shot at the playoffs. The teams are mostly balanced with solid pitching and hitting. For each club, there is top-tier star power, with Bryce Harper, Ketel Marte and Pete Alonso on the position player side, with Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Jacob deGrom on the pitching side and with a solid group of starting pitchers in Arizona as well. With a few good breaks, these teams could end up in the playoffs.