With the 2020 MLB draft, whittled to five rounds and held under unique circumstances because of the coronavirus pandemic, in the books, we asked three of our MLB experts -- Alden Gonzalez, Dan Mullen and David Schoenfield -- to break down the winners and losers, and extol the virtues of their favorite picks.
Which player from this draft class is most likely to win a Cy Young or MVP?
Alden Gonzalez: Zac Veen might have the biggest upside in this draft, and he might have slipped to No. 9 -- to the Colorado Rockies -- only because of the difficulty that comes with drafting high school players in a year without much baseball. I know this has been said a lot, but I still can't get over how much he looks like Cody Bellinger with his load and his swing. He's 6-foot-4 with easy power and the ability -- for now, at least -- to stick in center field. His floor is pretty decent for a teenager; his ceiling is riveting.
Dan Mullen: I would join Alden in picking Veen here, but he's headed to the Rockies, and we all know what happens to Coors Field hitters when it comes to MVP voting. So I'll go with left-hander Asa Lacy, the Royals' pick at No. 4 overall. We're talking about winning an MVP or Cy Young, so we're really talking about who can be the best if everything clicks, and the best case for Lacy, with his elite stuff that just needs to be harnessed, is a little better than the best case for Max Meyer or Emerson Hancock. Phillies first-rounder Mick Abel is another name to watch here as a high school righty who could be a true No. 1 starter if everything comes together, but as a prep pitcher from Oregon who didn't even throw a high school inning this spring, his probability of it working out is that much lower.
Schoenfield: Wait, did Dan just whine about Rockies players getting shortchanged in MVP voting? Larry Walker would like to speak to you. Nolan Arenado? Four straight top-six finishes. But I digress. I'll go with the No. 1 pick: Spencer Torkelson. The odds of an MVP are much higher if he can actually play third base -- and the Tigers apparently believe he can -- as Joey Votto was the only first baseman this past decade to win MVP honors. (Miguel Cabrera played third his two MVP seasons.) The only problem: He'll be in the same league as Mike Trout and the Tigers are a long way from contention status, which will hurt Tork in MVP voting.
What is one draft class you look at and immediately love?
Gonzalez: The Kansas City Royals, particularly for what they did on Day 1. They got Lacy at a spot they probably didn't expect him to fall to, then were able to land Nick Loftin -- the Baylor shortstop with a high contact rate and an equally high floor -- with the 32nd pick. That's two steady college performers for an organization that has seemingly shifted away from the raw, toolsy high school prospects in its approach to the draft. Two steals, it seems.
Mullen: I really like what the New York Mets did with their first two picks in this draft. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the kind of prospect who would have gone much higher with just a bit more present power, and if the signs of the outfielder showing it more often this spring are real, he's a steal at No. 19. Then they placed a second-round bet on right-hander J.T. Ginn coming back with the first-round stuff he showed before needing Tommy John surgery, which also could pay big dividends. I'll throw another one out there for good measure: The White Sox's 1-2 pitching punch of Garrett Crochet in the first round and Jared Kelley in the second is really intriguing. Chicago has a whole lot of elite offensive talent arriving in the majors now and, while there's some risk in both of these guys, these are two arms who could be key contributors.
Schoenfield: I'll go with the team that has drafted better than any other in recent years: the Dodgers. In Louisville righty Bobby Miller and Texas Tech righty Clayton Beeter, they got two of the best power arms in the draft. Their track record of performance might not match some of the more polished college pitchers, but put them in the Dodgers' player development system and I'll bet on them maximizing their potential.
What is one draft class you look at and immediately question?
Gonzalez: This might not fully answer the question, but I think it's worth mentioning. The Boston Red Sox provided the biggest head-scratcher in the first round, when they used the 17th overall pick on high school second baseman Nick Yorke, who was pegged for the third round. But in Round 3 they were able to pick up Blaze Jordan, who brings crazy pop. Jordan will demand overslot money to keep him away from Mississippi State, so potentially saving a significant chunk of the bonus pool with Yorke could help in that regard. In 24 hours, new Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom completely altered the outlook of his draft.
Mullen: Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said during the ESPN draft broadcast that it made sense to take Patrick Bailey as the best player available even when San Francisco already has an elite catching prospect in Joey Bart. And I get that, but the Giants really need an infusion of upside talent throughout their system and I'm just not sure Bailey's ceiling is all that high as more of a well-rounded catching prospect than a potential future star. And that's pretty much the feeling I have about the Giants' whole draft. There's nothing wrong with names like Bailey, second-round pick Casey Schmitt or Nick Swiney, but in a draft when they really needed to stockpile the system with promising prospects, I'm just not sure they did that.
Schoenfield: The Orioles swung big with their two first-round picks -- Heston Kjerstad and Jordan Westburg -- which, given the Orioles' current state of affairs, is somewhat understandable. They need to roll the dice on high-ceiling talent. But Kjerstad had major strikeout issues at Arkansas and some believe the Orioles picked him as an underslot signing so they could get Nick Bitsko at 30, only to see the Rays pick Bitsko at 24. Westburg is another toolsy college guy with big strikeout issues.
Which Day 2 pick did you like the most?
Gonzalez: Of course A.J. Preller took right-hander Cole Wilcox, bursting with first-round talent, with the eighth pick of the third round. Wilcox reportedly slipped that far because his bonus demands centered on $3 million, which started to feel like a reach once we got late into Round 1. The slot value where Wilcox ended up is $767,800, so the San Diego Padres will have to nearly quadruple that. Wilcox was a draft-eligible sophomore, so he has some leverage. He was the 23rd-ranked prospect on ESPN's top 150, with a triple-digit fastball and an above-average slider and changeup. If Preller can get him to sign, and somehow allocate the Padres' bonus pool to keep everyone else, he'd have a tremendous steal on his hands.
Mullen: Blaze Jordan. I'm not saying Jordan will become the best player drafted on Day 2, but the power potential is off the charts. And if the Red Sox can sign YouTube's famous masher away from his Mississippi State commitment, it would represent a 180 from Day 1, when Boston's first-round pick of Nick Yorke was a name many had not heard of.
Schoenfield: I just mentioned Clayton Beeter earlier. He was the No. 22 player on Kiley McDaniel's top 150 list, and while there's not much track record of him starting before four rocket-like outings this spring -- plus he has a Tommy John surgery in his past -- his upper-90s stuff and plus-plus curveball form a terrific foundation. I'm trusting what the Dodgers can do with a guy like this.
How good can the Blue Jays' infield be with Austin Martin added to it?
Gonzalez: I try not to dream on prospects too much, but let's go name by name here. Bo Bichette is a budding star; we can be as confident about that with him as we can with any 22-year-old. Regardless of what you think about his defense, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should be an elite hitter. And Martin, who amazingly slipped to No. 5, was the best, most well-rounded player in a draft with plenty of collegiate talent. Even if Cavan Biggio doesn't become great, he should be plenty serviceable. By 2023, the Blue Jays could have Bichette at short, Biggio at second, Guerrero at first and Martin at third -- with Jordan Groshans trying to squeeze in somewhere. OK, you caught me. I'm dreaming again.
Mullen: I think I'm the low man on this group, and that's not to say I'm not very high on what Martin brings to the Blue Jays' system. He has the potential to be a very solid player who can do it all at multiple positions with some swagger. Most of my question here comes on the defensive side. I'm not sure I'd play Vlad Jr. anywhere on the dirt. I think Martin's best trait might be his ability to move around rather than locking in at one spot. And I'm still not convinced that Biggio is the everyday starter in an elite infield.
Schoenfield: This would take some further research to compare to other great infields, but if Martin does settle in at third base with Guerrero moving over to first, this group could end up spending a half-decade or more together -- reminding me of the 1970s Dodgers infield of Steve Garvey, Davey Lopes, Bill Russell and Ron Cey. But let's not jump too far ahead: None of these guys are proven stars just yet. I'm much higher than Dan on Biggio, however -- he had a .365 OBP as a rookie, was 14-for-14 stealing bases and was solid enough at second base. Your classic low-average, underrated player. And like Alden said, if Groshans is the third baseman of the future, then maybe Martin moves to center field.
Who will hit more home runs in an MLB season -- No. 1 pick Spencer Torkelson or No. 2 pick Heston Kjerstad?
Gonzalez: Torkelson should be the better all-around player, but for the purposes of this question, I'll take Kjerstad, who represented perhaps the draft's biggest surprise by going second overall to the Baltimore Orioles. For one, Kjerstad will someday swing half the time at Camden Yards instead of Comerica Park, Torkelson's future home. But Kjerstad also might bring a little more raw power, albeit with far more swing-and-miss.
Mullen: Give me Tork. I'm a little apprehensive to take the guy headed to Comerica Park over the guy ticketed to play home games at Camden Yards, but one thing Pete Alonso's 2019 season at Citi Field taught me is not to overthink elite power, and Torkelson is the guy who went No. 1 overall in this draft because he can absolutely crush the baseball with his bat speed.
Schoenfield: Tigers scouting director Scott Pleis and special assistant Alan Trammell both stressed that they loved Torkelson not just because of his raw power, but because he's a good hitter with power. We don't know that yet about Kjerstad or the high school kids. And as Trammell pointed out, "Comerica Park is a big park, but not big enough to contain Tork."
Which early top pitching prospect would you rather have: Max Meyer, Asa Lacy or Emerson Hancock?
Gonzalez: Many were surprised Lacy even slipped to No. 4, and there's a reason -- he's a big left-hander with two plus pitches and a great track record. Over the past two seasons in the SEC with Texas A&M, Lacy boasted a 1.84 ERA with 176 strikeouts and 51 walks in 112⅔ innings. His walk rate might have been a tad high, but how many of us weren't a little out of control in our early 20s?
Mullen: I've got to go with Lacy here, too. As I said in the Cy Young question earlier, I think his upside is just a little higher than Meyer's or Hancock's, and I also think his floor is a tick higher than the other two as well.
Schoenfield: These are three organizations that haven't exactly been stellar at developing pitching in recent seasons -- we'll see how all those first-rounders for the Royals do -- which is why they were drafting in the top six in the first place. I do think Meyer's size (around 6-foot) is a strike against him; it's not a ruinous trait by any means, but I think that gives the edge to Lacy or Hancock. Lacy went higher in the draft and had the better strikeout rate last season, so I'll go with him as well.
Which of these late top-10 hitters are you highest on: Robert Hassell, Nick Gonzales or Zac Veen?
Gonzalez: I spoke with a lot of people about Gonzales in the weeks leading up to the draft and came away very impressed with both his hit tool and his makeup. This is a kid who was basically recruited by only one collegiate program coming out of high school and built himself into one of the game's best prospects in three years. He is exceedingly disciplined, has an unmatched work ethic and, more important for these purposes, has proved that his offense is not merely a product of a weak conference or a favorable ballpark at New Mexico State. He has great balance and strike-zone recognition, and his bat speed is elite.
Mullen: Veen. I like Hassell's bat. I love Gonzales' ability to spray balls to all fields. But Veen is the one with the most potential to develop into an all-around superstar with that beautiful left-handed swing. To me, Veen is a top-five talent in this draft who slid to Colorado at No. 9.
Schoenfield: I'm going with Gonzales. The words "swing-and-miss tendencies" scare me, and they've been mentioned in regard to Veen. Hassell will have to grow into some power. Gonzales is an elite contact guy with power and discipline, and his performance last summer in the Cape Cod League showed he can hit elite pitching. Sounds like a potential Alex Bregman starter kit. (I'm not saying Gonzales is going to hit 41 home runs someday.)