Let me get this part out of the way: I don't like the idea of the universal designated hitter. At the same time, I recognize it as the best option for what will already be a strange season, if we get even that. However, we shouldn't let this be the end of one of baseball's most prevalent debates. We'll just table the discussion for now.
Obviously, the temporary institution of the DH-for-all rule will help some teams more than others. American League teams have already built their rosters around the idea of having a DH for almost all of their games. National League teams obviously have not, and it makes for an intriguing subplot when and if baseball's 2020 season restarts. Depth in quality hitters will be a key. But don't overlook defense in this calculation. Some teams have chosen offense over defense at a key spot, a choice that they might be able to avoid in a DH world. Thus, not only could these teams adding a DH help their run production with another bat, they could actually improve their defense, as well.
Here, I've ranked each team's DH situation according to projected run production from that spot, as measured by projected runs created per 162 games in a ballpark-neutral context. However, defense must be taken into account: For some NL teams, I've forecast DH plate appearances based on moving former regulars into that slot while getting a better glove in the field. In the commentary accompanying each team's ranking, I've noted these decisions.
For a lot of teams, the DH discussion isn't too sexy, since managers will simply rotate players in and out of the slot in an effort to keep their position players fresh. Either way, isn't it good to think about the 2020 season from a strictly on-field perspective, even if just for a little while? While I remain mostly against the permanent implementation of a universal DH, I am at least grateful that rumors of its coming give us something to debate that's just baseball.
One initial takeaway: Notions that AL teams will have the upper hand at DH because they planned for it are mostly true, though the disparity is driven by the few Junior Circuit clubs with star DHs, such as Minnesota, Boston and Houston. Here's how it looks in the aggregate:
AVERAGE DH RUNS CREATED (per 162 games)
AL teams: 101.2
NL teams: 93.5
A couple of things to keep in mind: The adoption of the universal DH for this season remains more a strong rumor than a fact, so it's possible this discussion is moot. Also, consider these rankings as an artful blending of what I think should happen with what I think will actually occur.
1. Houston Astros
125.6 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Yordan Alvarez, Aledmys Diaz
Recent reports suggested that the Astros would like to give Yordan Alvarez more time in the field this year. Given the construction of the Houston roster, it's hard to see how this would be a regular thing beyond the young masher swapping places with veteran left fielder Michael Brantley once in a while, just to give the latter a partial day off. Beyond that, you could see manager Dusty Baker giving time in the slot of so-so-defending utility infielder Aledmys Diaz, who hits lefties pretty well. He could buy Brantley a full day off every so often against a tough southpaw, while Alvarez -- who destroys pitchers no matter the limb with which they throw -- plays the outfield. The bottom line is that Baker's options are all good.
2. Boston Red Sox
123.7 park-neutral runs created
Top options: J.D. Martinez, Bobby Dalbec
The key DH observation about the Red Sox: Boston has J.D. Martinez, and other teams do not.
3. Minnesota Twins
114.4 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano
Nelson Cruz has to slow down someday, but until he gives us reason to think it'll be this year, we have to assume that, once again, Minnesota will have the services of one of baseball's best DHs.
4. Los Angeles Angels
113.2 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Shohei Ohtani, Tommy La Stella
The Angels' DH situation is one of the most singular of any team during the history of the DH era. You've got a future Hall of Famer in Albert Pujols who seems like exactly the kind of aging star for whom the role was originally conceived. Ah, but you've also got big league baseball's first real two-way player in a century in Shohei Ohtani, who has already established himself as a first-division hitter. Ohtani has got to pitch every sixth day, and he might not hit on those days, given the decisions emerging from the creative mind of new manager Joe Maddon. But you've also got an emergent specialty-type hitter in Tommy La Stella, who is no great shakes with the glove.
My guess as to how this would play out is that Ohtani will DH every day except when he pitches, with the occasional rest day subsequent to those outings. La Stella would DH when Ohtani is on the mound, and Pujols would get the occasional turn there, as well. While Pujols isn't too nimble in the field at this point, he is probably no worse than La Stella. Unless Maddon is willing to make the bold decision to turn Pujols into a part-time player, the Angels' skipper is going to be somewhat limited in his ability to leverage the DH slot into maximizing his team's lineup, whether at the plate or in the field.
5. Chicago Cubs
103.8 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Kyle Schwarber, Steven Souza Jr.
Like the Cardinals, Brewers and Reds, the Cubs are set up to use the DH spot to bolster both their offense and defense. In fact, given that even most AL teams don't deploy an everyday, star-level designated hitter, Chicago can slot Kyle Schwarber there on most days and have one of the more productive DH situations in baseball. Whatever you think about Schwarber's glove, a combination of Jason Heyward, Albert Almora Jr., Ian Happ, Steven Souza Jr. and a little Kris Bryant should give the Cubs a better team defense than one deploying Schwarber. Just as important, it's also possible that forgoing defense could allow Schwarber to reach a level on offense it has always seemed he could get to.
6. Chicago White Sox
102.4 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Abreu
With an expanded roster, the White Sox might give one of their backup catchers -- James McCann or Zack Collins -- some DH reps. But it'll primarily be a strong combination of Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Abreu. The metrics are agnostic about which one should play first base more often, but chances are, it'll be Abreu.
7. Cincinnati Reds
101.7 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Jesse Winker, Aristides Aquino
Cincinnati is another NL Central contender that has more offense-first players than positions to work with in a typical NL configuration. That might remain true even with the universal DH. However, whereas the original depth chart made it a challenge to find adequate at-bats for Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel and Aristides Aquino, among others, the addition of the DH helps a great deal. For one thing, you've got to have Winker's bat in the lineup against righties. But you also want new leadoff man Shogo Akiyama in there against southpaws, even while knowing that Senzel and Nick Castellanos need to be in the lineup most days. Now the primary consideration is to find a righty-hitting counterpart for Winker at DH. That player could be Senzel some of the time or perhaps Phillip Ervin. It also could be the super strong Aquino, if the Reds have the roster space, and that might be the ideal outcome.
8. Oakland Athletics
100.3 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Khris Davis, Seth Brown
Oakland's DH spot should be straightforward, with Khris Davis getting the vast majority of the playing time. What could change that is if Davis' down 2019 season turns out to be the start of a career decline rather than simply an off year. Then manager Bob Melvin would turn his DH slot into a rotation.
9. New York Yankees
100.3 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Ford
The Yankees' crowded depth chart means this will almost certainly be a robust job-sharing arrangement overseen by manager Aaron Boone, with Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Ford, Miguel Andujar, Mike Tauchman, Luke Voit and others all doing DH time while working in the field some days. Most of the "rotation" teams project as middle of the road, as the individual projections for players all kind of even out. The thing about the Yankees' candidates, though, is that all of them can really hit.
10. Tampa Bay Rays
98.0 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Jose Martinez
Newcomer Yoshitomo Tsutsugo seems pretty comparable offensively to incumbent Rays first baseman Ji-Man Choi but has more positional versatility. Still, it appears likely that Tsutsugo will be in what should be an active DH rotation under manager Kevin Cash. Jose Martinez was always a man without a position during his time with the Cardinals, and he'll be a key part of the position, as well. The Rays are loaded.
11. 97.5 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Franmil Reyes, Jake Bauers
I've pretty much made Franmil Reyes the everyday DH in my depth chart, but I'll admit I'm not sure that's right. If Jake Bauers hits, then he'll likely get some time against righties. And Domingo Santana is another power bat who happens to be highly awkward in the field. It's entirely possible that Reyes will spend more time in the outfield than I'm guessing, while Bauers and Santana team up at DH for the most part. Another possibility given expanded rosters is for longtime power prospect Bobby Bradley to work his way into the mix. Carlos Santana is always a DH possibility, though he isn't that bad in the field. Of course, most of these issues were in play before the stoppage due to the coronavirus pandemic. It's just that the time off hasn't helped bring any clarity to the situation.
12. Washington Nationals
97.4 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Howie Kendrick, Asdrubal Cabrera
The Nationals went undefeated with a DH in their starting lineup during the 2019 World Series, so this is ideal. The DH in all four wins was Howie Kendrick, who of course poked the biggest home run in Nationals history off the right-field foul pole of Minute Maid Park in Game 7. Kendrick really is a perfect solution to get regular at-bats at DH for manager Dave Martinez. Ryan Zimmerman might figure in here, as well, though a straight platoon between him and Eric Thames at first base seems likely. A key is young Carter Kieboom. If he can successfully push Asdrubal Cabrera off third base, then the latter might become an occasional platoon partner for Kendrick at DH. This scenario also would shift if new second baseman Starlin Castro falters. However it shakes out, the Nationals have a lot of good players even without Anthony Rendon and Bryce Harper.
13. Miami Marlins
96.5 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Matt Joyce, Jesus Aguilar
Maybe the Marlins were prescient, because it sure seems like they went out and acquired a bunch of DH candidates over the winter. In addition to Matt Joyce and Jesus Aguilar, I assigned good chunks of DH time to holdovers Garrett Cooper and Harold Ramirez. Matt Kemp was in camp, as well, though he doesn't factor into these numbers.
14. Texas Rangers
96.2 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Shin-Soo Choo, Isiah Kiner-Falefa
It's not real complicated for the Rangers. Shin-Soo Choo is a terrific hitter and does the DH job as well as anyone. While I've listed Isiah Kiner-Falefa as the other option, it's for just a sliver of at-bats. The spring reports on Kiner-Falefa were interesting because he apparently overhauled his offensive approach. Obviously, that could just be one of those spring stories. In this case, it's worth noting because it is just the kind of thing that manager Chris Woodward was involved with during his time with the Dodgers.
15. New York Mets
95.6 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Yoenis Cespedes, Dominic Smith
I've often wondered why Matt Adams keeps signing with NL teams. Perhaps he has an extreme fondness for pinch hitting. (To be fair: Adams' defensive metrics mark him as an average defensive first baseman.) Anyway, I've given him about a quarter of the Mets' DH time, assuming he earns a spot on the roster. However, if Dominic Smith shows that his early-season form from 2019 was legit, he'll need regular at-bats, and he isn't getting them from Pete Alonso. Between that and the return of Yoenis Cespedes, the addition of the DH could prove to be a godsend to an already good Mets lineup.
16. Los Angeles Dodgers
95.5 park-neutral runs created
Top options: A.J. Pollock, Matt Beaty
The Dodgers have featured the most organizational depth of any club in the majors over the past few years. Clearly, that gives them a leg up on other NL teams in a DH world. I've divided their time among four players: A.J. Pollock, Matt Beaty, Edwin Rios and Chris Taylor, so two lefty hitters and two righties, plus a little Max Muncy. This seems logical, though it should be noted that including Beaty and Rios actually drives the Dodgers' DH projection down. The reason is the same for both: They made offensive leaps last season and seem likely to regress. But this is the Dodgers -- they fix players in a sustainable way. It's what they do, though that's hard to account for in a projection system. Besides, even if Beaty and Rios regress, the Dodgers will come up with someone else.
17. 93.5 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier
In Jorge Soler and Hunter Dozier, the Royals have a pair of youngish, bat-first players coming off big offensive seasons. Both should see DH time, but both are too young to confine to that spot exclusively. Or one would think. If, as expected, Kansas City begins to fold in its coming wave of young starting pitchers, team defense might be a top priority for new skipper Mike Matheny. Otherwise, this DH projection for Kansas City is a composite of a rotation that is headlined by Soler and Dozier. Matheny's flexibility to work Dozier into the DH mix more often is helped by the Royals' offseason acquisition of third baseman Maikel Franco.
18. Arizona Diamondbacks
92.6 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Kevin Cron, Jake Lamb
The Diamondbacks didn't have an obvious spot for big Kevin Cron, who mashed 45 homers across all levels last season. Cron is 27, so it's kind of now or never for Arizona to maximize his power potential. Given that, this sudden chance to get him quasi-everyday at-bats as a DH is a nice development -- insofar as any of the fallout from the shutdown can be termed "nice." I've assigned Cron the majority of time at the DH spot, though I've given about 40% of the time to veteran Jake Lamb. If Lamb doesn't look poised for a bounce-back, even more of that time could go Cron's way. That pair also could platoon some, though with Cron the righty, you wouldn't want to confine him to the lesser portion of the arrangement unless he looks overmatched.
19. San Diego Padres
92.3 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Wil Myers, Greg Garcia
The Padres have enough good DH options that you can expect manager Jayce Tingler to mix things up quite a bit. However, it should help free up his crowded outfield mix, with Wil Myers getting the most reps at the position. Josh Naylor is a defensive problem and should see the lineup more often in a DH world, as well. Another possibility if the Padres carry three catchers is for Francisco Mejia to get some DH time, while also continuing to complement Austin Hedges' fine defense behind the plate.
20. St. Louis Cardinals
91.7 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler
The Cardinals are one of the NL teams that have a chance to bolster their lineup and their defense through creative use of the DH. They can do that while clearing a path for emerging prospect Dylan Carlson to get regular at-bats in the outfield. I've assigned time to a number of players in the DH slot for St. Louis, but I've given the most to Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler, though both hit righties better than lefties. The idea is that, depending on the makeup of the Cardinals' opponent, either veteran can DH while allowing manager Mike Shildt to get a better defender on the field. St. Louis has enough offensive depth to function like an AL team. That is, assuming Fowler and Carpenter both hit.
21. Atlanta Braves
91.6 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Nick Markakis, Adam Duvall
The wild card is Atlanta's third-base battle, which appeared to be a close race between Austin Riley and Johan Camargo during spring training. I like Camargo as a utility player, but that would be contingent upon Riley proving he has plugged some holes in his swing and becomes a reliable defender at the hot corner. His upside is worth trying to weather the concerns. Manager Brian Snitker is going to keep his other infielders in the lineup most days, so whether Riley or Camargo is manning third base, the other becomes a strong DH option against left-handed pitchers. However, reserve outfielder Adam Duvall falls into that mix, as well. As for the heavier side of a DH platoon, veteran Nick Markakis is a perfect fit against righties, especially as Snitker now has to balance outfield playing time around MVP candidate Ronald Acuna Jr. That juggling act will include Markakis, Ender Inciarte, newcomer Marcell Ozuna and possibly even prospect Cristian Pache.
22. Milwaukee Brewers
91.2 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Ryan Braun, Jedd Gyorko
With Milwaukee adding Avisail Garcia to join Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich in the outfield, as well as veteran infield options Justin Smoak and Jedd Gyorko, it's been unclear just how longtime Brewer Ryan Braun would be deployed. First base, sure, but Braun has never played there full time. But now ... DH! Problem solved! Alas, the Brewers move players around like a 1950s switchboard operator, so it seems unlikely that manager Craig Counsell will use Braun as anything approaching a full-time DH. Counsell will probably go through about four of them per game. Here, I've given Braun the most time, with Gyorko the second most, but that's not ideal, as both are at their best against lefties. But I've also allotted playing time at DH for a number of other Brewers, which is likely how it will play out.
23. San Francisco Giants
90.8 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Alex Dickerson, Hunter Pence
The Giants have several players who project in the range of .750 to .800 in park-neutral OPS but are also below average with the glove. They have brought veteran Hunter Pence back into the mix, and Pablo Sandoval is coming off Tommy John surgery, so he might be limited on defense. Alex Dickerson and Pence are two of a number of players I've given DH time to, as I assume manager Gabe Kapler will use a rotation. One thing to consider: Using Buster Posey to DH as a way to give him a partial day off, rather than putting him at first base, might not only help boost his declining offensive numbers, it could also clear big league time for catching prospect Joey Bart.
24. Seattle Mariners
90.4 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Daniel Vogelbach, Austin Nola
The options are ... not great. Austin Nola catches too often to be a true DH platoon guy, though Dan Vogelbach needs a platoon partner as badly as I needed a barber before I decided to just shave all my hair off. Chances are, manager Scott Servais will use Vogey most often in the DH slot and rotate around on the other days, especially against lefties. All of this is contingent upon Evan White taking over at first base.
25. Colorado Rockies
90.3 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Charlie Blackmon, Daniel Murphy
After much deliberation, I settled on dividing the Rockies' DH spot among three players: Charlie Blackmon, Daniel Murphy and Ian Desmond. Blackmon and Murphy are both lefty-hitting everyday players with flagging defensive games, while Desmond might find his best role yet as a Rockie by DHing against lefties. More players will enter this mix, though it does seem to me that manager Bud Black has a chance to craft a productive DH rotation while maximizing his team defense.
26. Baltimore Orioles
88.9 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Renato Nunez, DJ Stewart
The troubling loss of Trey Mancini, likely for the season, because of a cancer diagnosis probably means that Chris Davis will play first base exclusively. That actually strengthens Baltimore's DH projection, since I had originally given Davis time there. Davis carries with him one of baseball's worst offensive projections, given his past couple of years. (Davis absolutely mashed during spring training, so it's unfortunate he wasn't able to take that momentum into the season.) Anyway, this projection is about 80% Renato Nunez, along with a bit of DJ Stewart. Stewart is coming off ankle surgery, so DHing might be an occasional necessity. The scenario will scramble if the Orioles deem infield prospect Ryan Mountcastle ready for a regular big league role at first base.
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27. Detroit Tigers
86.6 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Miguel Cabrera, Harold Castro
The Tigers' addition of C.J. Cron during the winter pretty much eliminates any further need for Miguel Cabrera to don a glove. Cabrera is the prototype for the DH concept, just like Pujols: a future Hall of Famer who can please his fans for a few more years by getting a few trips to the dish every game.
28. Toronto Blue Jays
86.5 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Rowdy Tellez, Teoscar Hernandez
The Blue Jays have a number of DH candidates from the standpoint that they have a lot of gloves you'd like to keep off the field. It's a young enough lineup that manager Charlie Montoyo needn't overly concern himself with resting players at most spots. And while Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s best position might well be DH, you'd hate to see him confined to that role at this stage. Plus, his glove isn't going to get any better if he doesn't keep playing defense. Given all of this, a Rowdy Tellez-Teoscar Hernandez platoon seems about right.
29. Pittsburgh Pirates
86.4 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Jose Osuna, Colin Moran
I can't say I'm real excited about the Pirates' DH options, and I gave Colin Moran a chunk of the at-bats there almost as a wishcast, in hopes that dazzling glove prospect Ke'Bryan Hayes can ascend to seize the third-base job. This is what rebuilding looks like.
30. Philadelphia Phillies
85.6 park-neutral runs created
Top options: Jay Bruce, Neil Walker
The Phillies have lots of options in the DH mix, many of them with recognizable names. Name recognition does not necessarily equate to production. The ideal situation would be for powerhouse third-base prospect Alec Bohm to slug his way into a regular role. Beyond that, a Jay Bruce-Neil Walker platoon might be the unsexy outcome. Both are solid veterans on the downside. One thing the Phillies do have is a former AL manager in Joe Girardi who is used to dealing with the DH juggling act.