The days are growing brighter and moderately warmer even here along the western shore of Lake Michigan. Soon, I'll be making my annual trip to spring training. This year, it'll be to Arizona. And for that, I'm grateful, because it puts a buffer of a couple thousand miles between me and West Palm Beach, Florida, spring training home of the Houston Astros.
No matter how you feel about the Houston sign-stealing scandal, aren't you just a little fatigued by it at this point? Anti-Astros extremists sure aren't going to let go anytime soon. At the very least, the reception for the Astros in every new city they visit this season will be a story. Everyone is waiting for their chance to voice their displeasure, as is their right. This story is not going to die for some time, even as baseball tries to chart a scandal-free path forward.
Yet, does it have to suck the oxygen out of everything that remains good about the best game there is? Aren't we ready for a new season, perhaps now more than ever?
One of the wondrous things about baseball is just how deep its roots have grown through the eons. No other sport comes close. The history of baseball is like a work of magical realism of unthinkable breadth, one in which a new chapter is written each and every year, as it has since the days of outhouses, gas lamps and horse buggies. You never know where the story will take you, as the past few months have reminded us.
And, sure, some of that largely explains the degree of Astros uproar that has dominated all forms of sports media. We get mad because we care. Baseball is part of our national identity in a way that other sports can never be, and you never want scandal fodder to be part of your identity. There have been pretty significant scandals stemming from malfeasance in other sports over the past couple of decades. Yet as we have seen with the Astros, nothing gets people more worked up than a baseball scandal.
You may have noticed that here I am again, talking about the very thing I don't want to be talking about. (Talking in the proverbial sense, of course.) The Astros continue to dominate my thoughts, and that's why I'm so glad to be going to Arizona ... where the Astros are not.
Some people -- fans and media alike -- actually like a good scandal, and that's OK. Whatever trips your trigger. At the very least, you can say that the messes surrounding the Astros, Red Sox and the game in general give us something to talk about. You can absorb only so many "best shape of my life" stories, hopeful tales of budding stardom and anecdotes about lessons learned in the pitching lab -- the kind of stuff we usually traffic in this time of the year.
But here we are, just three weeks until real games begin. Let's acknowledge that we, myself included, will probably be talking about the Astros for the foreseeable future. Then let's try to set that aside and focus on an Astros-free baseball universe. There are so many other things worth our attention.
1. Miggy and Albert
Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols have been around for a long time now, even as fading remembrances of their bright bursts upon the baseball scene lurk in the back of our minds. Both are plodding, diminished versions of their best selves. Yet both deserve to be celebrated for as long as we have them around. The reports this spring on Cabrera have been promising, that his decaying knee is stronger, giving him more leverage with his legs, the absence of which sapped his power last season even as he hit .282. It might be wishful thinking, but is there a vintage Miggy season left in him? He needs 23 home runs and 185 hits to reach 500 homers and 3,000 hits for his career. Last year's Miggy would not have a shot; maybe this year's version does.
As for Pujols, I think we can pretty safely dismiss hopes of a vintage Pujols revival. He has been a below-average hitter even without adjusting for position during each of the past three seasons. He can still pound the ball when he lays into one, but it just doesn't happen that often anymore. That said, Pujols needs just 44 homers to reach the hallowed 700 mark. He has one more season left on his deal after this one. Every dinger he hits in 2020 gets him that much closer to the magic number. Also, Pujols needs 223 RBIs to pass Hank Aaron's career mark of 2,297. With his 12th ribbie this year, Pujols will pass Alex Rodriguez for third place on the career list.
2. Trout's best lineup
Pujols will be part of perhaps his best lineup yet as a member of the Angels, with Anthony Rendon joining him, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and, possibly, top prospect Jo Adell. And if it's the best Angels lineup for Pujols, it'll be the best one for Trout. The Angels will go only as far as their pitching takes them, but this could be the season when the best active player in career performance (Pujols), the best player right now (Trout) and, who knows, the best player of the future (Adell) all intersect with the Japanese Babe Ruth (Ohtani). That Babe Ruth comparison could be more apt for Ohtani than ever once he returns to the L.A. rotation and attempts to become the first player with 400 at-bats and 100 innings pitched since Ruth in 1919.
3. Red-hot Redbird
The Angels' possible surge is way more interesting than dwelling on the Astros. So, too, is the rise of outfield prospect Dylan Carlson in Cardinals camp, perhaps forcing the hand of the St. Louis front office in putting him on the Opening Day roster. The Cardinals of the last decade have had one of the more prolific farm systems in the majors, but more in terms of turning out solid big leaguers than elite-level stars. Carlson might change that. At last check, he had a .520 on-base percentage in Florida.
4. The ball
There have been some rumblings about a more normal feeling ball so far, but until we get into regular-season play and see how the numbers begin to pile up, I'm not putting much into those anecdotes. And I'm certainly not predicting what will happen, though my wish is that the balls turn out to be less lively. What I'm most interested in is this: Whereas power-packed teams such as the Twins, Yankees and Dodgers certainly benefited from last year's rabbit ball, who benefits if homers become even a little more precious? As for those Dodgers ...
5. The super Dodgers
According to short-cut, a method for ranking teams that you'll read about shortly, Los Angeles has ranked as the best overall team in the majors in each of the past two seasons after ranking No. 2 in 2017 behind the Indians. And now they have Mookie Betts. If catcher Will Smith and second baseman Gavin Lux are able to build off their solid rookie seasons, the Dodgers could be elite at every position in the field and deploy their most airtight lineup since the Duke Snider-Jackie Robinson days in Brooklyn. These recent Dodgers teams have already been deeper than their predecessors, and this year promises to be no different.
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Expectations are sky-high, but there is at least the potential for this year's Dodgers to be one of the best regular-season teams in history. Pitching will have a lot to say about that kind of ceiling. That's intriguing enough, but then consider this: For title-starved fans in L.A., none of that would even matter. All that matters is that for the first time since 1988, the Dodgers are the ones dumping champagne on one another at the end of the season. The quest will be a season-long drama as every little crack in the edifice is put under the microscope.
6. Milwaukee's Best
The Brewers were able to do with Christian Yelich what the Red Sox were not able (or perhaps even willing) to do with Betts, and the Indians, thus far, have been unable to do with Francisco Lindor: lock him up for the long term.
We always talk about the finite windows of contention for teams, especially those in small markets. Agreeing to an extension with Yelich doesn't ensure that Milwaukee will be a year-in, year-out contender, but it's a heck of a good start. Perhaps more importantly, Brewers fans will have a franchise icon to root for, someone who can turn the next generation of young Milwaukeeans into lifelong fans of the Brew Crew. I firmly believe there is an intangible benefit to identifying such a player that trumps any talk of market value or winning cycles. Every franchise should always be trying to find this type of player, then do everything it can to keep him around.
The Brewers have had that before with Robin Yount and Ryan Braun. And although Yelich didn't begin his career in Milwaukee, the fact that we know he'll be around Brew City for more than the next couple of years can only buoy the spirits of one of baseball's most vibrant fan bases. It also gives them hope that another player will go into the Hall of Fame with a Milwaukee hat on his plaque. I know I shouldn't worry about such things, but I do. Who will be the Hall of Famer for the Marlins, for example? Will they ever keep an elite player long enough to have one?
Yelich has a way to go, but his spree of the last two years bodes well for his eventual Hall chances. According to the JAWS numbers at Baseball Reference, Yelich's current seven-year peak bWAR total is 33.6, ranking 35th all time. But Yelich has played only seven seasons. If he puts up another seven-win season in 2020, that would knock his rookie season (1.7 bWAR) out of the calculation and boost his peak total to around 39 bWAR. That would rate around 16th and put him near the Hall average for left fielders.
From there, Yelich would have to rack up quite a few more quality seasons to be Cooperstown-worthy. But few players have put up back-to-back seasons like Yelich just did, and seeing whether he can continue to maintain this level of play will be thrilling for the fans in Milwaukee for years to come.
7. Kings of Chicago
With news that the White Sox have agreed to a contract extension with Yoan Moncada, the South Siders have already banked heavily on a young core that will be in place for a number of years but has yet to accomplish anything at the big league level. That's not a statement of warning but one of excitement and anticipation. As with the Angels, the degree to which the White Sox emerge as contenders this year will depend on their pitching. But it seems all but certain that this will be a seminal season for the ChiSox.
At the same time ... well, rumors of the Cubs' imminent demise might be exaggerated, or at the very least, premature. Nevertheless, 2020 is the year in which fans on both ends of Chicago can start to have a legitimate debate: Whose team is better? It's also within the realm of possibility that after a quiet October in the Windy City last year, this autumn could be quite busy.
8. Too many things
I could go on in this vein for a long time, writing ecstatic blurbs about what I'm looking forward to this season. Alas, I don't work for MLB PR and there are too many things to list. I didn't get into Nate Pearson's emergence in Toronto or the Blue Jays' status as a sleeper team to at least challenge Boston for third place in the AL East. I didn't touch on the Field of Dreams game in Iowa or all the rules changes that we'll be dissecting as the season unfolds. (Some of those are Astros-inspired, so sorry about that.) I didn't talk about Nelson Cruz's successful battle against the ravages of age or Trevor Bauer's quest to pitch every fourth day. (Let's see, 41 starts would probably yield around 31 decisions, but if he got lucky, it could be something like 35. If he's on a good team ... a throwback win total could be in the offing.)
I also didn't talk about the fact that the Pirates have still never handed out a richer contract than the one they gave Jason Kendall in 2000. I didn't get into the Yankees' season already coming apart because of injuries, though that might only serve as the antagonist they had to overcome in the documentary about their first title since 2009. I didn't get into the Hall of Fame case of Minnie Minoso, which will be considered again after this season, but I will, of that you can be assured. I didn't rave about the possible resurgence of King Felix in Atlanta, even as we all try to adjust to seeing him in a new uniform.
Baseball faces many challenges ahead in dealing with fallout from the Astros' scandal, its battle with minor league baseball, with unpopular pace-of-play initiatives, with attendance challenges, with negotiations with the MLBPA, with the role of technology in the game and, indeed, with what kind of game baseball wants to be in the future. But these are all features, not bugs. It's a new season, a new chapter in the greatest book ever written, and all the elements are there to make it a special one.
As hard as it has been to remember over the past few weeks, the game is still bigger ... and better ... than a bunch of foolish miscreants in Houston, Texas. Baseball has always transcended those who populate it at any given point in time, and it will continue to do so. As for those damnable Astros, they are a team that, by the way, might well win the World Series. Now that would be something to talk about.
Three little things
1. Last weekend, a ceremony was held in Marinette, Wisconsin, during which a soon-to-be-completed Freedom-variant littoral combat ship was christened the USS Cooperstown. You can visit the link to get all the details, but the gist is that the new ship will honor the 68 Baseball Hall of Fame military veterans. The announcement included a list of all 68 players, from the well-remembered Grover Cleveland Alexander and Ted Williams to the less-remembered Nestor Chylak and Al Barlick (both umpires). The list includes 27 veterans of World War I, 36 from World War II and six from the Korean War.
Two Hall members served in two conflicts. Williams served as a marine pilot and flight instructor during World War II and Korea, during which he flew 39 missions and survived a crash landing. Because Williams lost nearly five full seasons to military service, his is probably the most famous career in the armed forces for any athlete. Perhaps ballplayer-turned-spy Moe Berg has eclipsed Williams given the recent interest the cinema has taken in his story. The other Hall member who saw two conflicts was owner/executive Larry MacPhail, who served in both World Wars. He even spearheaded a plot to kidnap the Kaiser.
But there was another name that really caught my eye. There is one Hall member who fought in the Civil War, which of course ended more than a decade before the founding of the National League: Morgan Bulkeley, who later served as the NL's first president. But even those two factoids about Bulkeley's life -- Civil War service and baseball executive -- barely scrape the surface of what was a David Copperfield kind of existence. Or maybe Copperfield-meets-Charles Foster Kane.
Among Bulkeley's other experiences: president of the Bank of Hartford, first president of Aetna Insurance, governor of Connecticut and U.S. senator. His parents both claimed to be descended from passengers on the Mayflower. And he was for a time the president of the Hartford Dark Blues, a big league club from 1874 to 1876. The first two of those teams played in the National Association; the latter was among the original National League clubs. In 1877, because of myriad problems, Bulkeley moved the Dark Blues to Brooklyn, robbing ESPN of the closest thing to a home team it would have had in the majors. (The flame of the Hartford Dark Blues still burns at ESPN: It's the name of David Schoenfield's fantasy team.)
In addition to Bulkeley, there is one other Hall of Famer associated with the Dark Blues: Candy Cummings, who won 35 games for Hartford in 1875 and is best remembered as the inventor of the curveball. If you are really, really into Candy Cummings, here is some exciting news. His old house is for sale, and it can be had for a song.
Looks like some restoration may be required.
2. A quick addendum to last week's argument against an expanded MLB playoff format: How often does the "best" team in baseball win the World Series, and how has that changed during different eras in baseball?
To guess at those answers, we have to first create a definition of "best" team. There isn't a consensus method to do this, so what I decided to do was create a z-score for every team in every season to count the number of standard deviations each team was better or worse than the league-average team by run differential. This hopefully creates a way to capture excellence while factoring in league balance. We're measuring how much better (or worse) a team was than the league it was in for any given season.
I broke down numbers by three eras based on league format: two leagues with no playoff round other than the World Series (1903 and 1905 to 1968); four divisions with an LCS round (1969 to 1993); six divisions (1995 to present). I left out 1901, 1902, 1904 and 1994, when there was no World Series, and decided not to subdivide for the addition of the second wild card in each league beginning in 2012. That didn't seem necessary, as the best team does not have to play in the one-off wild-card contests.
You could subdivide further based on the institution of the amateur draft, the breaking of the color line, the end of the reserve clause, the total number of teams in the majors or the onset of revenue sharing. But we'll leave it at the league format, since that is the issue at play. So here are our three eras and how often the best team has won it all:
The wild-card era has greatly diminished the importance of regular-season dominance, at least when it comes to translating that success to a world championship, with the "best" team winning only 16% of the time. The last team to rank as the best regular-season team and win the Series was the 2016 Cubs. Before that, the last team was the 2007 Red Sox. We already are at the point that if the best team in baseball actually wins the championship, it's as much a coincidence as anything. The four-division format was the best format baseball has had in terms of balancing a multiround postseason format with the proper weighting of regular-season play.
The thing that I have to admit with the new format proposal is that it could in theory improve the chances of the best team winning. Those teams would still have the same number of rounds to traverse as now, but with a first-round bye, they'd be facing teams with scrambled pitching staffs. So perhaps that 16% number would go up.
However, the trade-off would be that the 5.2 number would go up as well. That's the average league rank of champions under the six-division format we've had since 1995. There would be 14 teams in the postseason. The worst league rank we've ever had for an eventual champion was 14, and that happened just once --- the 1987 Minnesota Twins. Under the proposal, we'd likely see a team ranked as low as 17th or 18th in the playoffs at least once every few years.
Right now, despite the random nature of the playoffs and the fact that one-third of the majors advances into October, we're still usually getting a champion that is one of the best five teams in baseball. Under the new format, we'd inevitably end up with an eventual champion that is not just mediocre but actually pretty bad. That would not be good for the game.
3. OK, one other quick addendum to that playoff format argument: The other day, I read this intriguing piece from FiveThirtyEight's Neil Paine on the declining relevance of the NBA's regular season when it comes to forecasting postseason play. That is exactly what baseball risks by considering such a radical postseason overhaul. It would not be good.