LAKELAND, Fla. -- The New York Yankees are heavy favorites to win the American League East, after adding Gerrit Cole. The Tampa Bay Rays won 96 games last year, and nearly derailed the Houston Astros' run to the World Series.
The Boston Red Sox, on the other hand, traded their best player, Mookie Betts, and lost Alex Cora, widely regarded as one of the game's best managers, to the sign-stealing scandal. Boston has dramatically slashed its payroll and Red Sox fans have been in talk-show revolt all winter.
But here are eight reasons why the 2020 Red Sox will be better than what you think.
1. The World Series hangover has passed
The Washington Nationals will try to do what no team has done in two decades -- win back-to-back World Series. The 2019 Red Sox tried it, following their 119-win championship season of 2018, and they failed miserably, finishing in third place in the AL East with an 84-78 record. There were injuries and there were slumps, and there was weariness, which Red Sox interim manager Ron Roenicke acknowledged Monday before Boston's exhibition game here.
"I know we're not the same team that we were two years ago," said Roenicke, who seemed to be mainly referring to the departure of Betts. "But we're not last year's team, either. All of these guys were disappointed by what we did last year.
"I know it's hard to repeat -- a mental grind to go all the way and win it ... I don't think there was complacency last year, that's not really what I saw. I think the mental grind of it is hard, to have that same feeling going into the next year. I think we could have that same feeling this year.
"By having a little bit of a chip on your shoulder, I think it does make a difference with guys. I know the Yankees are picked higher than us; I know Tampa is picked higher than us, and that's fine."
2. Rafael Devers is a superstar
Amid the frustration of last year, Boston's third baseman turned into a monster, refining his extraordinary skill to guide and drive the bat with his hands. Red Sox hitting coach Tim Hyers compared Devers' ability to that of a tennis player -- he's so adept at powering the ball, it's as if he's swinging a racket. Devers provided a great example of this the other day, seemingly flicking a low pitch, with his weight already shifted onto his front foot, over the center-field wall.
At age 22 last season, Devers demonstrated he could be the heir apparent to the legacy of the many left-handed hitters who have thrived in Fenway Park in Red Sox history, from Ted Williams to Carl Yastrzemski to Wade Boggs to David Ortiz to "Carita" -- Baby Face, Devers' nickname.
He was an MVP candidate in 2018, hitting .330 and driving in 130 runs, changing the way the Red Sox prepared for each game with a heightened attention to detail. He just wasn't as good in 2019, perhaps because a late-season ankle injury prevented him from his usual preparation -- and above all else, Martinez is a guy who thrives on preparation.
This spring, he appears to be in phenomenal condition after a full complement of preparation, and, at 32, he seems poised for a bounce-back to something close to his 2018 production.
4. Even without Betts, the offense should be elite
Sitting on the visitors bench in Lakeland on Monday, Roenicke referred to all the excellent players the Red Sox have -- and he's right. Devers. Martinez. Xander Bogaerts, who had the best season of his career in 2019, with 33 homers among 85 extra-base hits, and a .939 OPS. Christian Vazquez, who hit a career-high 23 homers last year, with a .276 average.
Even in what was considered to be a disappointing season, the Red Sox finished fourth in the big leagues in runs. Boston has other notable contributors, from Jose Peraza to Andrew Benintendi, Michael Chavis to Mitch Moreland.
There are two great X factors, however: Bogaerts, a core piece of the lineup, has been sidelined by an ankle issue that popped up just before camp, and the Red Sox have clearly been surprised by his extended absence. And while Alex Verdugo, the main chip acquired from L.A. in the Betts deal, is regarded by evaluators as an extremely talented hitter, he is currently undergoing treatment for a back issue.
After Roenicke gave a darker assessment of where Bogaerts stands in talking with reporters in the morning, Bogaerts told reporters in the afternoon he had a good day of progress and hopes to play in games later this week. "It went well," Bogaerts said. "Looking forward to playing in games, probably this week. I don't know which days, but I feel pretty close to 100 percent. [I'm not there] as yet, but pretty close. I'm much further than I was when I came here."
5. The back of the Boston rotation can't be any worse than in '18 -- and it could be better
Rick Porcello and David Price are Cy Young Award winners who were highly regarded by their peers in the Boston clubhouse as exceptional teammates. They played major roles on the 2018 championship team.
But as the Red Sox slipped to 84 wins a year ago, Porcello and Price did not provide a lot of production -- Price, dealing with an elbow issue, had a 4.28 ERA over 107⅓ innings in 22 starts, and Porcello had the worst season of his career, with a 5.52 ERA. Price was moved to the Dodgers in the Betts deal and Porcello departed as a free agent, and the Red Sox could reasonably expect they'll get more from those two spots in the rotation than they did a year ago. That could happen through the ascension of someone into the rotation or the use of an opener, something Chaim Bloom, Boston's new head of baseball operations, has discussed with Roenicke.
An aside: Nathan Eovaldi, oft-injured in his career, is apparently healthy and has looked strong in outings this spring.
6. Chris Sale appears poised for a comeback
Because of how Sale battled arm trouble near the finish line in '18, the Red Sox backed him off his usual preparation last spring, and he never really seemed to be himself. As he tried to make adjustments in the midst of last season, tinkering with his mechanics, he kept getting pounded, allowing 24 homers in just 147⅓ innings.
Red Sox lefty Brian Johnson -- who had competed against Sale as both grew up in Florida -- encouraged Sale to go back to his usual free-flowing, ornery competitive mound personality. Sale improved, but then hurt his elbow and was shut down for the rest of his lost season, with a career-worst 4.40 ERA.
This year, Sale's arrival in spring training was delayed by a bout of pneumonia, but after rejoining the Red Sox, he spoke enthusiastically about how he feels, and about how good his arm feels. He turns 31 at the end of this month, and the staff is confident it will see a version closer to the seven-time All-Star he has been in his career.
Will it pan out that way? On Tuesday, Sale headed for an MRI after experiencing soreness in his elbow following his first live BP session. Stay tuned.
7. The '20 bullpen is upgraded from a year ago
Boston's financial belt-tightening really began a year ago, when the Red Sox decided not to re-sign Craig Kimbrel, and then spent no money to augment the corps of relievers -- and in the first part of the year, the bullpen was a big problem. But by midseason, a strong new structure developed, behind the ascent of Brandon Workman into the closer's role, the work of Matt Barnes and the emergence of Darwinzon Hernandez. Boston's bullpen is not as good or as deep as the Rays' bullpen, or that of the Yankees, but it has improved.
8. Bloom is in the habit of continually looking for upgrades
In recent years, the Yankees and Dodgers have separated themselves from other big-market teams by their ability to pick through baseball's scrap heap and find really good players -- guys like Max Muncy and Chris Taylor for the Dodgers, and for the Yankees, Mike Tauchman, Gio Urshela and Luke Voit.
Bloom comes to the Red Sox with the reflexes natural for a former Tampa Bay executive. "He's already looking for ways to improve the roster," said one evaluator. "And he's going to keep doing that all year. He's going to constantly look for help."
The Rays have excelled in this, and it would surprise no one if under Bloom the Red Sox begin to match the Dodgers and Yankees in the ability to find valuable players.