Hall of Famer Rogers Hornsby isn't remembered as having the cheeriest of personalities, but his Kierkegaardian demeanor has always channeled the wintertime ennui of the baseball fan. Hornsby's most-repeated quote went, "People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
Spring won't be officially sprung for a few more weeks, but in baseball, we get a jump start on it when teams head south in February to prepare for the approaching season. The time for staring has ended, Rogers. Baseball is back. Well, mostly.
Of course, this year, the game has arrived in the outposts of Florida and Arizona with a bit more baggage than usual. While each day seems to offer up a fresh log to throw on the fire engulfing the Houston Astros, teams are nonetheless getting ready to play actual games on the field. There is no telling when the baseball world will be ready to collectively move on from the scandals and disputes swirling around the majors. But games will be played. At least that much should give us solace.
The first "official" exhibition game is scheduled for Friday, when the Kansas City Royals and Texas Rangers square off at their shared facility in Surprise, Arizona. The stakes are nil, yet that first spring training game, between two teams in actual big league uniforms, will be a time to rejoice. That's especially true this year, more than usual. If and when the game heals itself, as it has always done, that's where it happens. On the field.
Eventually, we'll be able to refocus on how teams are shaping up for the coming season. Which rookies look ready to hit the ground running? Who will win that third-base battle? Does that aging slugger having anything left? Does that lefty look fully recovered from his arm trouble? These are the type of questions that we prefer to dwell on, at least when those mortals who populate the game allow us to. Don't we?
That's where our focus is in the latest Stock Watch -- on the field. We'll be zeroing in on one key issue to watch for in each team's training camp. The clubs are ordered by their current power rating, per my projection and tracking system. The rating simply represents the baseline forecasts for each team. Those forecasts are then run through a Monte Carlo-style simulator of the 2020 schedule 10,000 times to yield the win predictions for each team.
For those clubs with win forecasts less than their power rating, that's a reflection of a tough league and schedule. For those whose win forecasts exceed their power rating, the opposite is true -- their context figures to make them look better than they are.
1. POWER RATING: 104.6
WIN FORECAST: 104.1 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: +4.8
DIVISION%: 82.9 | PLAYOFF%: 96.2
PENNANT%: 36.0 | TITLE%: 23.8
As you can imagine, given the Yankees' powerhouse projection, New York's roster problems are very much of the first-world variety. The weakest link on the positional chart appears to be third base, where the Yankees rank 20th in projected runs created. I've got playing time for that position doled out to Gio Urshela as the regular, with Miguel Andujar getting about a quarter of the time and Tyler Wade making a few appearances. Andujar, who is expected to be moved around, has a 31-point edge over Urshela in forecasted OPS: .800 to .769. Urshela, however, was at .889 last season. His career mark before that was .589, which is exactly what made him such a great story during New York's 2019 campaign. But he's not a youngster on the rise -- Urshela turned 28 during the postseason last autumn. I will be watching for signs of whether his quantum leap last season is at all sustainable.
2. Houston Astros
POWER RATING: 101.1
WIN FORECAST: 99.6 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: +4.5
DIVISION%: 75.2 | PLAYOFF%: 89.5
PENNANT%: 28.4 | TITLE%: 18.0
I guess the thing to watch for will be the HBP column in Houston's exhibition games, or at least that's what many will be checking in on. Sportsbooks in Las Vegas have even been setting over/unders for the Astros' hit-by-pitch total for the regular season. According to my projection system, which doesn't know about the scandal, that total should be 62. The over/unders I've seen have been set in the low 80s. Given accurate playing-time projections, HBP is a fairly projectable category, so we'll be able to track things with an informed eye.
Of course, throwing that out there violates the refuge-from-the-scandal spirit of this Stock Watch, so I'll add another thing to watch for: the performance of young outfielder Kyle Tucker. Incumbent right fielder Josh Reddick is aging, and it shows in the forecasts. Consider this: If an AL team reaches around 900 runs these days, it will be at or near the top of the league. That means a perfectly balanced, elite lineup would see at least 100 runs created from each position. Houston projects to surpass 100 RC at seven spots, more than any team in the majors. The two exceptions are at catcher, where no team projects to reach 100 runs created (the Cubs are closest at 99) and right field, where the Astros' rank just 18th in RC forecast. Reddick turned 33 Tuesday and his OPS+ progression the past three years has gone 130, 97, 89. It's time for Tucker to live up to some of the hype that has accompanied his name for a few years now. He projects to create seven more runs per 600 plate appearances than Reddick so, on paper, it appears to be time for the Astros to transition at that position.
3. POWER RATING: 98.5
WIN FORECAST: 102.5 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: +2.9
DIVISION%: 93.4 | PLAYOFF%: 98.0
PENNANT%: 45.0 | TITLE%: 22.4
Even though the addition of Mookie Betts means that L.A. will have one more near-everyday hitter to go with Cody Bellinger (for sure) and, if healthy, Justin Turner and Corey Seager, let's not forget that these are the Dodgers. They still have about 10-12 players who might well be regulars on about half the teams in the majors. And the Dodgers leverage that depth with a system that is pretty close to a baseball version of load management. Even though the outfield rotation looks pretty crowded in light of the collapsed trade of Joc Pederson to the Angels, there will still be plenty of at-bats for him, A.J. Pollock, Chris Taylor and others to share.
That said, it will be interesting to see how Dave Roberts allots playing time for Pederson, the aggressive, mashing lefty hitter, and Pollock, the veteran right-handed hitter. Pollock's pedigree and contract make a true platoon situation seem unlikely. We surely won't have this situation figured out in spring training -- unless Pederson trade talks are rekindled -- but perhaps we will begin to detect some clues.
4. POWER RATING: 92.1
WIN FORECAST: 89.9 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: +1.0
DIVISION%: 17.9 | PLAYOFF%: 50.1
PENNANT%: 6.2 | TITLE%: 3.1
Between Oakland's No. 4 ranking in park-neutral projected runs created and No. 2 ranking in team defense, few teams have a more impressive group of position players. There is a hole at second base, however, and there are plenty of candidates vying for time at that spot. True spring battles aren't really that much of a thing anymore in that teams have learned not to make judgments based solely on what they see in exhibition play. However, the A's are sorting through a number of keystone candidates, from newly acquired Tony Kemp to Sheldon Neuse to longtime prospects Franklin Barreto and Jorge Mateo. Of that quartet, Neuse is the only one with minor league options remaining.
5. POWER RATING: 91.8
WIN FORECAST: 92.4 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: +5.6
DIVISION%: 52.0 | PLAYOFF%: 66.8
PENNANT%: 9.6 | TITLE%: 5.0
With the acquisition of Kenta Maeda, the Twins appear to have four-fifths of their Opening Day starting rotation set. The top four figure to be Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Maeda and Homer Bailey. However, with Rich Hill injured to start the season and Michael Pineda injured, the biggest question mark for Minnesota will be that No. 5 spot. The leading contenders appear to be Randy Dobnak -- the Uber guy -- and Australian lefty Lewis Thorpe. Nothing against Dobnak, but Thorpe's strikeout potential makes him the favorite, but also could make him a better fit in the bullpen.
6. POWER RATING: 91.7
WIN FORECAST: 90.4 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: +4.0
DIVISION%: 9.6 | PLAYOFF%: 51.5
PENNANT%: 4.7 | TITLE%: 2.4
The team that popularized the "opener" is second in my preseason rankings for starting pitching. And the Rays truly have a potentially dynamic, deep starting staff. Charlie Morton, Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell give Kevin Cash a big three that can stack up with anyone, while Yonny Chirinos, Ryan Yarbrough and veteran Trevor Richards add depth and command. However, the guys I'm looking at are prospects Brendan McKay, who got his feet wet in the majors last season, and Brent Honeywell, who is coming off injury. The Rays probably won't push Honeywell too hard, especially in the early going, but if McKay looks ready to turn the corner, Tampa Bay has the potential for an epic rotation. And, perhaps, zero starts by openers.
7. POWER RATING: 91.0
WIN FORECAST: 89.2 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: -1.4
DIVISION%: 7.5 | PLAYOFF%: 44.1
PENNANT%: 4.0 | TITLE%: 2.0
Boston projects no better than middle of the pack at any offensive position outside of the big three hitting core of J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. Still, the spring focus will be on the rotation, which decidedly lacks sizzle beyond Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez. The Sox will need innings from Nathan Eovaldi, but that's not a spring issue. However, whether Martin Perez's swoon in Minnesota after a good start in 2019 carries over might be evident fairly early in the proceedings. As for a No. 5 ... it's hard to believe that Boston won't add someone. Anyone.
8. POWER RATING: 90.2
WIN FORECAST: 92.5 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: -0.1
DIVISION%: 43.9 | PLAYOFF%: 78.0
PENNANT%: 15.6 | TITLE%: 6.0
You might think a team that lost Anthony Rendon might have some things to iron out at third base ... and you'd be right. For Washington, the overarching question is whether prospect Carter Kieboom, developed as a shortstop, is ready to take over for the team's best player with both the glove and the bat. Kieboom appears to offer more power than Starlin Castro, but less than Asdrubal Cabrera. But Kieboom has better on-base skills than both Cabrera and Castro. Castro, meanwhile, has a decisive edge in batting average. Roll it all up, and the projections don't provide much distinction among the trio. It's quite a soup. However, Kieboom's age (22) gives him the edge in upside ... if he looks ready to go with the glove. For Nats fans, the most exciting development this spring would be for Kieboom to stake a clear claim at the hot corner.
9. POWER RATING: 89.9
WIN FORECAST: 90.6 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: -1.0
DIVISION%: 38.2 | PLAYOFF%: 55.0
PENNANT%: 7.1 | TITLE%: 3.5
It gets tiring to harp on about the Indians' outfield, but here we go again. It's tough to ignore that group when Cleveland has a Gold Glover behind the plate and four rock-solid everyday infielders -- all switch-hitters. By comparison, the outfield is a muddle. Oscar Mercado appears to be a safe bet for regular time in center field, unless his OBP implodes. Franmil Reyes should see plenty of time, though much of it might come at DH. Jordan Luplow and Domingo Santana both offer good pop on the corners, but the latter is a bit of a nightmare on defense. The list of other contenders is long: Jake Bauers, Greg Allen, Delino DeShields, Bradley Zimmer and Tyler Naquin. Good luck with all that, Mr. Francona.
10. Atlanta Braves
POWER RATING: 89.7
WIN FORECAST: 91.2 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: +4.7
DIVISION%: 33.9 | PLAYOFF%: 72.3
PENNANT%: 12.4 | TITLE%: 5.0
As with the Nationals, with whom the Braves project to be in a virtual dead heat atop the NL East, the hot spring action will be found at the hot corner. Josh Donaldson is the missing star in Atlanta, so the Braves will be choosing his replacement among Austin Riley (lots of power, but makes inconsistent contact), Johan Camargo (less power but a solid mix of offensive skills) and perhaps veteran infielder Adeiny Hechavarria. Given Hechavarria's offensive track record, he's probably better suited as a fill-in-the-blanks glove guy. Camargo was good in 2018 while moving around positions and is young enough to bounce back from a down 2019 season. However, if Riley can prove steady at the plate and with the glove, he offers the most upside as Atlanta tries to approximate Donaldson's contributions.
11. POWER RATING: 86.8
WIN FORECAST: 83.5 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: +0.7
DIVISION%: 5.0 | PLAYOFF%: 18.7
PENNANT%: 1.8 | TITLE%: 0.8
Is Jo Adell ready? Yeah, the Angels have plenty of questions to answer with their starting rotation, not the least of which is the timing of Shohei Ohtani's return to the mound. But the Adell question is what grabs me. One of baseball's top prospects, Adell is in camp as a non-roster invite, so he's not folded into the Halos' win forecast that you see here. Frankly, he wouldn't help it that much -- the 21-year-old is long on potential but still profiles as too aggressive at the plate to be a sure bet from a forecasting standpoint. (In the short term anyway.) However, if Adell can show that he's ready to face big league pitching, he'll make an already-strong L.A. lineup that much more dynamic. And since the Joc Pederson trade fell through, the Angels will wade into the season with stopgaps such as Brian Goodwin and Michael Hermosillo vying for outfield time.
12. New York Mets
POWER RATING: 86.1
WIN FORECAST: 86.8 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: +1.8
DIVISION%: 16.0 | PLAYOFF%: 50.3
PENNANT%: 6.5 | TITLE%: 2.0
If you've been following along, you already know that I love the Mets' lineup, or at least my numbers do. If you factor out DH and pitchers, the Mets' park-neutral run forecast ranks third in baseball. However, that's hitting and there is more to being a position player than hitting. Like, you know, catching the ball. And New York ranks 29th in my team defensive rating, which is based on a spectrum of defensive metrics. Among the eight Mets I have projected as regulars, only Michael Conforto (60th percentile) ranks in the top half of big league fielders. This is something I will be watching because defensive improvement is what stands between the Mets and the top of the NL East.
13. POWER RATING: 82.6
WIN FORECAST: 82.8 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: +1.1
DIVISION%: 9.6 | PLAYOFF%: 18.2
PENNANT%: 1.5 | TITLE%: 0.4
Has Tim Anderson improved on defense? Anderson has shown a penchant for steady improvement during his late-blooming baseball career, culminating in last season's AL batting crown. This season, he figures to regress with the bat thanks to the eye-popping .399 BABIP he had in 2019. He can offset some of that regression by improving his plate discipline. Just as crucial though will be for Anderson to become more consistent at shortstop, where he committed 26 errors a season ago. Assuming Nick Madrigal ascends early in the season to take over second base, the White Sox should be strong defensively up the middle at second, catcher (Yasmani Grandal) and center field (Luis Robert). But shortstop remains the key spot in team defense, putting the onus on Anderson to complete the package. That will be especially important when ground-balling newcomer Dallas Keuchel is on the mound.
14. Texas Rangers
POWER RATING: 82.4
WIN FORECAST: 79.4 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: +0.3
DIVISION%: 1.9 | PLAYOFF%: 8.1
PENNANT%: 0.6 | TITLE%: 0.3
The Rangers' solid baseline forecast is built off a solid starting rotation bolstered over the winter by the acquisition of former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber. However, as you can see by the three-win drop-off after the baseline is simulated through the Texas schedule, the competition is fierce. The Rangers have offensive holes pretty much all around the infield. Still, what I'll be watching is the stuff of closer Jose Leclerc. In 2018, Leclerc looked like baseball's next great reliever, but last year his ERA jumped from 1.56 to 4.33. His strikeout rate fell a bit, especially when adjusted for league context, but remains closer-worthy. Leclerc rediscovering the consistency and command of his 2018 self would give Texas a back end to its pitching staff as impressive as its front end.
15. Chicago Cubs
POWER RATING: 81.3
WIN FORECAST: 84.2 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: +2.6
DIVISION%: 39.3 | PLAYOFF%: 46.7
PENNANT%: 6.5 | TITLE%: 1.7
In terms of baseline forecast, the Cubs' 81.3 rating is the best of the middling bunch in the NL Central. Once the simulations are run, Chicago gets a boost to 84 wins, sparing the division the embarrassment of a .500 on-paper division champ. The lineup looks good, especially if Nico Hoerner is ready to seize the second-base job. However, the performance of closer Craig Kimbrel will be under the microscope in Mesa. Kimbrel struggled badly after signing with Chicago during the 2019 season. OK, fine -- chalk it up to the late start. That reasoning is now obsolete. Kimbrel, 31, might never reach his former level of dominance because few pitchers have ever gotten to that level. But Chicago badly needs him to at least show he can reliably finish games because in pitchers such as Kyle Ryan, Alec Mills, Ryan Tepera, Rowan Wick, Dan Winkler and Brad Wieck, the Cubs have the makings of a good, deep relief staff.
16. POWER RATING: 81.1
WIN FORECAST: 82.1 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: -0.1
DIVISION%: 6.2 | PLAYOFF%: 26.1
PENNANT%: 2.5 | TITLE%: 0.7
Try as they might, the aggressive Phillies just can't seem to generate a forecast that gets too far away from the break-even point. One thing that might help is for someone to grab the third-base job and run away with it. Philly, which ranks dead last in projected runs created at second base, finally moved on from longtime potential-over-production third sacker Maikel Franco. In his place is versatile Scott Kingery, who certainly seems to have some untapped potential at the plate. Veteran Josh Harrison also is in camp, but the Phillies have lots of veterans in camp. (GM Matt Klentak issued so many spring invites I'm a little hurt that I didn't get one.) The real name of interest here is Alec Bohm, who ranks as Baseball America's top third-base prospect entering the season. You can see the difference between Kingery and Bohm by simple measurement: Kingery is 5-10, 180 while Bohm is a straight-from-central-casting 6-5, 240. Kingery can still move back to center field or fill in around the diamond. If the power-smacking Bohm can seize third base, he brings upside to an otherwise veteran-heavy lineup.
17. San Diego Padres
POWER RATING: 80.5
WIN FORECAST: 83.4 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: -1.1
DIVISION%: 4.5 | PLAYOFF%: 31.4
PENNANT%: 2.5 | TITLE%: 0.7
The Padres project to finish sixth in baseball in stolen bases, fifth in triples and 27th in grounding into double plays (which is good). All of which is to say that San Diego has a lot of athleticism in its position group, from Fernando Tatis Jr. to Manny Machado to newly acquired outfielder Tommy Pham. And yet the Pads rank 28th in team defense as the season approaches. Such a dismal rating doesn't necessarily square with what you might see in other systems and I can't claim to have cracked the code of measuring defense. However, I can say this: If Tatis could just get more consistent at catching the ball, that would help matters immensely. Tatis is capable of landing on the highlight reel in any given contest. However, his .944 rookie-season fielding percentage really undermined his defensive metrics. The good news: Tatis is only 21 years old. Look for the Padres' defense to grow with him.
18. POWER RATING: 80.0
WIN FORECAST: 83.1 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: -0.9
DIVISION%: 32.1 | PLAYOFF%: 39.7
PENNANT%: 4.7 | TITLE%: 1.3
Who plays the outfield? St. Louis has plenty of candidates in camp who could come together in what might well be an above-average group. Beyond the likelihood of Dexter Fowler playing most days, there are a lot of possible combinations for Mike Shildt to sort out. Can Tyler O'Neill leverage his immense power? Can Harrison Bader generate enough contact to take advantage of his athleticism and elite defense? Does Lane Thomas merit regular time? How far along is prospect Dylan Carlson? Will displaced rookie sensation Tommy Edman find refuge on the grass from a crowded infield? There are a lot of moving parts to follow over the next few weeks and into the regular season.
19. POWER RATING: 77.4
WIN FORECAST: 79.8 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: -0.8
DIVISION%: 17.9 | PLAYOFF%: 23.4
PENNANT%: 2.2 | TITLE%: 0.4
How does it all fit? This is a very nonspecific thing to watch, but the Brewers' offseason was absolutely dizzying. Of the 17 Milwaukee position players I have allotted playing time to in my current set of depth charts, nine were not with the Brewers at the beginning of the offseason. And that doesn't include an array of non-roster invitees who might work into the mix, including Logan Morrison, Keon Broxton and Jace Peterson. So when I say I'm watching to see how it all fits together, that's exactly what I mean. Heck, I figured at least I was safe in right field, where Christian Yelich gave the Brew Crew a No. 1 ranking in projected runs created. Then I read the news from camp that he's shifting to left field. Stay tuned, Brewers fans.
20. POWER RATING: 77.4
WIN FORECAST: 79.2 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: -0.5
DIVISION%: 1.8 | PLAYOFF%: 15.9
PENNANT%: 1.1 | TITLE%: 0.2
Not much has changed since last month from a projection standpoint. My system continues to like the Diamondbacks less than many analysts, both objective and otherwise. We'll see who is right. I mean that in a literal sense; I am not rooting against Arizona or anything like that. More instructive is to consider where Arizona might brighten the picture I have of them. Generally speaking, it's all about offense. The D-Backs' rotation and bullpen both project to the upper half of the majors and I have the team defense at No. 6. However, the hitters rank 21st in park-neutral projected runs created, with pitchers and DHs removed. Arizona ranks in the bottom third at all four corners: 22nd at first base, 23rd at third, 23rd in left field and 27th in right. There are some solid names associated with those spots -- Christian Walker, Jake Lamb, Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta and Kole Calhoun, among others -- so I guess I'll be watching them try to prove me wrong. Hope they do.
21. POWER RATING: 76.2
WIN FORECAST: 73.0 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: -4.3
DIVISION%: 0.1 | PLAYOFF%: 1.6
PENNANT%: 0.1 | TITLE%: 0.1
The Blue Jays did a lot of work on their rotation over the winter, adding veterans Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson and Shun Yamaguchi to stabilize a highly unstable group. Those four will join a mix of incumbents including Trent Thornton, Sean Reid-Foley, Matt Shoemaker and, hopefully, the ailing Ryan Borucki. For all that effort, my system awarded Toronto with a No. 25 rotation ranking as camp opens. It's not hard to see a league-average rotation emerging from this group, which is much stronger in command than power; the Jays rank fifth in projected walk rate but 25th in strikeouts. What would really bring this picture into clarity would be for a legit, flame-throwing ace to emerge. Enter big, flame-throwing prospect Nate Pearson. I don't know if he's near being ready for the majors, much less than for the top of the rotation. It's probably a long shot. I do know the Jays' pitching outlook would improve considerably if he were to become a camp sensation.
22. Cincinnati Reds
POWER RATING: 74.1
WIN FORECAST: 76.1 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: -2.9
DIVISION%: 8.7 | PLAYOFF%: 11.9
PENNANT%: 0.7 | TITLE%: 0.1
The Reds' pitching staff, especially their sixth-ranked rotation, forecasts better than it has in years. However, even after Cincinnati added Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas over the winter, I just can't get to the same place with the Reds' hitting and defense. That said, I have little idea what to make of international imports such as new Reds center fielder Shogo Akiyama. I lift my forecasts for those guys from Clay Davenport; I just haven't studied international players deeply enough to adopt my own method. Shogo projects as exactly league average at the plate and in the 74th percentile in defensive rating. Maybe he's a lot better than that. Beyond Nick Senzel and Aristides Aquino, most of the rest of Cincinnati's position player outlook is made up of fairly established players. So I'll be watching Shogo to see if he can make the Reds go.
23. Colorado Rockies
POWER RATING: 70.6
WIN FORECAST: 72.2 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: -1.0
DIVISION%: 0.3 | PLAYOFF%: 3.3
PENNANT%: 0.2 | TITLE%: 0.0
If the Rockies' lineup can outperform my pessimistic projections, Colorado will only get back over .500 if they get a collective bounce-back from a rotation that fell off badly last season. There are plenty of question marks to ponder during the spring for the Rox, like the return of Wade Davis to the closer role after he put up an 8.65 ERA last season. But for me, any hopes for a surprise Colorado run rests with that rotation because that's the formula that worked so well for them in the previous seasons. I'll be watching to see if Jon Gray, German Marquez, Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela can together approximate what they were in Colorado's recent playoff seasons.
24. Seattle Mariners
POWER RATING: 69.6
WIN FORECAST: 64.7 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: +1.4
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.1
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
This one's easy: Seattle signed Evan White to a six-year, $24 million contract over the winter. He has yet to play a game in the majors. Sure, top prospect Jarred Kelenic is in camp, but White is penciled in as the Mariners' regular at first base. Color me intrigued. For what it's worth, I see him hitting .264 with 23 homers and 74 RBIs as a rookie with a neutral OPS a tick above league average. That would not be a bad place to start.
25. POWER RATING: 68.0
WIN FORECAST: 69.9 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: -6.4
DIVISION%: 2.1 | PLAYOFF%: 2.8
PENNANT%: 0.2 | TITLE%: 0.0
Forget projections; Chris Archer's last couple of seasons have pretty much wrecked those for him. But there is a new regime in Pittsburgh, so I'm very curious to see what adjustments they make with a pitcher for whom the Pirates gave up so much. It wasn't that long ago that Archer was considered to be an elite starter, or at least something close to it.
26. Kansas City Royals
POWER RATING: 67.3
WIN FORECAST: 66.2 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: -2.2
DIVISION%: 0.2 | PLAYOFF%: 0.2
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Well, we can't really get a read on Mike Matheny's bullpen management during spring training, so scratch that. Mostly, I'll be watching and rooting for outfielder Bubba Starling. He finally broke through and logged some big league time last season. At pretty much every stop along Starling's long and winding road to the majors, he had a rocky initiation period. Eventually he found his way at each level. Hopefully he can do the same in the majors after he has shown so much perseverance and the Royals have reciprocated with a lot of patience. Starling isn't going to be a star, most likely, but maybe he could emerge as this season's Mike Yastrzemski. There is a plenty of upside in Starling's glove.
27. POWER RATING: 64.2
WIN FORECAST: 65.2 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: -1.3
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.3
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Farhan Zaidi has taken a soft approach to rebuilding, perhaps out of necessity as much as preference because he inherited a number of upside-down contracts. Still, the thud he seems to have wanted to avoid could be in the offing this season nonetheless. One sign of hope for the longer term that could emerge for the Giants is if Mauricio Dubon could consolidate some interesting qualities from his debut season over a full campaign. During his debut, he started fast and finished slow as the strikeouts were piling up when the season ended. This year, he projects to middling with both the bat and glove, but unless catching prospect Joey Bart forces his way into the 2020 picture, it's Dubon who is best positioned to offer San Francisco fans a ray of sunshine.
28. POWER RATING: 63.3
WIN FORECAST: 58.9 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: -0.8
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Not last place! Though note that the Orioles lose a lot of luster from their win baseline when their schedule is taken into account. They figure to give New York a lot of W's, as if giving that city Babe Ruth weren't enough. Baltimore has the game's best catching prospect in camp, but Adley Rutschman almost certainly won't be seeing the major leagues during the regular season. I want to see him catch a big leaguer and hit against a big league pitcher, at least once. Then I can go back to dreaming of better days ahead for the good people of Baltimore.
29. Detroit Tigers
POWER RATING: 61.0
WIN FORECAST: 59.3 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: -7.8
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Everything related to the Tigers ought to be about the future. I should zero in on Detroit's camp for updates about elite pitching prospects Casey Mize and Matt Manning. But I won't. I'll be watching Miguel Cabrera's spring at-bats, hoping against hope that his knee is feeling better. He needs 185 hits and 23 homers to hit 3,000 and 500 for his career. There is no guarantee that he'll have the playing time or the performance to reach the milestones this season. (I have him projected for 151 hits and 20 homers.) Miggy still has three more guaranteed seasons left on his contract, so if he wants to keep limping along, he'll get those marks eventually. But I hate to see him get there that way. I would love nothing more than one more vintage season of Cabrera mashing, even if it happens in the vacuum of another last-place Tigers finish.
30. Miami Marlins
POWER RATING: 59.5
WIN FORECAST: 58.0 | CHANGE FROM LAST MONTH: -3.0
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.1
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
The Marlins added a number of make-good veterans over the winter in an effort to give them a position crew that is more viable for the big leagues. Maybe it'll help but my system sees it all as lipstick on a pig and not particularly interesting. So my focus will remain on the progress of Miami's young starting pitchers -- Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, Sandy Alcantara, Jordan Yamamoto, Pablo Lopez, Nick Neidert. It's in those names that the most expedient path to improvement lies for beleaguered Marlins fans.