Imagine a universe in which baseball has an ironclad, two-way reserve clause. A reserve claws, as it were. We're not talking about the version that bound players to teams for decades before Marvin Miller and Curt Flood came along, when teams had all the power in deciding when or if a player ever had a chance to change teams. This version works both ways. Once you sign or are drafted by an organization, you are married. Forever.
In that universe, scouting and development become everything. They are essential areas now, but teams can overcome deficiencies there by opening up the vault during free agency or swinging a deft trade. But if teams aren't allowed to make transactions, the only chance they would have to differentiate their baseball operations efforts would be in the work they put in before amateur players entered the professional ranks.
We all do this kind of fantasizing at one time or another, imagining what it would be like if your team hadn't let a certain player go. If he finds stardom elsewhere, it stings. Legions of Red Sox fans probably scratched out prospective lineups for years that had Jeff Bagwell inserted into the No. 4 spot.
The fact is, relatively few players of distinction stay with only one organization for their entire career. But if they all did -- if they were all subject to that unbreakable two-way reserve clause -- we wouldn't have as much to write about, for one thing. However, we'd also have a slam-bang way to know which teams are the best at scouting and development.
With that in mind, I've taken all active players in my database and moved them (virtually) back to the organization with which they originally entered professional baseball. That trade you rue (or relish)? Never happened. That heartbreaking free-agent departure? Never happened.
I chiseled projected 2020 rosters out of these organizational resets. The result is this accounting of the No-Moves Power Rankings. Using my 2020 projections, how would teams be expected to perform if they had to rely strictly on those whom they scouted, signed and drafted? In which areas would they be strong, and where would they have fallen short?
Teams are ranked by a power rating, which is simply a win projection based on the runs scored and allowed profiles of each reconstituted roster. Those profiles were generated by my projection system. Other rankings are based on each roster's forecasted performance in the following areas: hitting -- park-neutral runs scored; fielding -- a team rating based on its players' combined results in defensive runs saved, defensive win shares, UZR and Statcast's outs above average; rotation -- combined starting pitcher ERA; bullpen -- combined leverage-adjusted relief pitcher ERA.
The player pool is made up of anyone active as 2020 spring training dawns, even if said player hasn't hooked on with a team yet. Keep in mind that past value and future value don't really come into play. Big-time prospects aren't included unless they seem likely to play major roles in the big leagues this season. Rosters were constructed based on likely 2020 production and playing time. In several instances, I had to get a little creative with positioning in order to put together an actual lineup.
I included designated hitters for National League teams in the lineups, though that is really just a labeling choice to get another name out there. Speaking of names: There are a lot of them associated with organizations with which I had mostly or completely forgotten they were ever associated. You will probably encounter a few of those too. Hopefully, that's the fun part. Let's get to it.
1. Houston Astros
No-Moves Power Rating: 93.8
Hitting rank: 1
Fielding rank: 26
Rotation rank: 20
Bullpen rank: 20
Lineup: 1. George Springer (RF), 2. Jose Altuve (2B), 3. Alex Bregman (3B), 4. J.D. Martinez (DH), 5. Yordan Alvarez (LF), 6. Carlos Correa (SS), 7. Yuli Gurriel (1B), 8. Ramon Laureano (CF), 9. Jason Castro (C)
Rotation: Dallas Keuchel, Mike Foltynewicz, Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr., Vince Velasquez
Bullpen: Josh James, Richard Rodriguez, Jordan Lyles, Trent Thornton
The portrait painted by any analysis of the talent level of the Astros is bittersweet. Leaving aside every question one has about the sign-stealing scandal and its aftermath, perhaps the saddest fact of all is that none of it was necessary. The team is loaded and has been ever since it came together a half-decade ago. That's not to deny that something related to the scheme might have helped tip the scales against very talented Yankees and Dodgers teams in 2017, but there is no question that Houston was more than good enough to win on the merit of its collective talent. Here you see mostly the same stars in its lineup, with J.D. Martinez plugged into the cleanup spot. Houston simply gave up on Martinez, who became an entirely different hitter around the time he was let go. The Astros haven't been as good at spotting pitchers as hitters, especially relievers, though the organization has churned out a good number of midrotation starters. That's why I had to fill out their reconstituted bullpen with such pitchers.\
Note: For our purposes here, I have defined a player's first professional organization as the one with which he played his first professional game. Call this the Yordan Alvarez codicil. Alvarez was signed out of Cuba by the Dodgers but traded to Houston a month later before he'd appeared in a minor-league game. Instances such as that are rare but to catch them all would mean to audit whether thousands of professional players active last season played their first pro game with the team that originally signed them. Alas, I don't have the staff to do that.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
No-Moves Power Rating: 89.2
Hitting rank: 4
Fielding rank: 9
Rotation rank: 7
Bullpen rank: 17
Lineup: 1. Joc Pederson (CF), 2. Corey Seager (SS), 3. Carlos Santana (3B), 4. Cody Bellinger (1B), 5. Yasiel Puig (RF), 6. Alex Verdugo (LF), 7. Gavin Lux (2B), 8. Willie Calhoun (DH), 9. Will Smith (C)
Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Josh Lindblom, Dustin May
Bullpen: Kenley Jansen, Nathan Eovaldi, Scott Barlow, Joakim Soria
One thing that this exercise erases is players a team plucks from another organization because it sees something to work with and, in conjunction with the efforts of those players, helps them find a new level in their game. The Dodgers have been great at this, so as good as this originally-a-Dodger roster looks, it's actually not as good as their real-life group. You can see by Carlos Santana's presence at third base that L.A. hasn't signed or drafted a large number of MLB-quality infielders, at least not many who remain viable regulars heading into the 2020 season. Lindblom, who apparently found himself in Korea, was signed by the Brewers over the winter and is projected as a member of Milwaukee's rotation.
3. Los Angeles Angels
No-Moves Power Rating: 88.6
Hitting rank: 9
Fielding rank: 5
Rotation rank: 1
Bullpen rank: 7
Lineup: 1. Jean Segura (SS), 2. Mike Trout (CF), 3. Shohei Ohtani (DH), 4. C.J. Cron (1B), 5. Kole Calhoun (RF), 6. Randal Grichuk (LF), 7. Howie Kendrick (2B), 8. David Fletcher (3B), 9. Martin Maldonado (C)
Rotation: Mike Clevinger, Patrick Corbin, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Chatwood, Sean Newcomb
Bullpen: Will Smith, Keynan Middleton, Cam Bedrosian, Ryan Brasier
As Bob Dylan once wrote, now is the time for your tears. The group of position players represented here isn't really that much different or better than what the Halos have fielded around Mike Trout in recent years. There is also not much depth behind these guys. However, that No. 1 rotation rank is more than a little sad. Clevinger and Corbin both enter 2020 as Cy Young candidates in their respective leagues. Clevinger was a fourth-round pick by the Angels in 2011 who was dealt to Cleveland for the soon-to-be-finished Vinnie Pestano. Corbin was picked in the second round in 2009 -- obviously both of these pitchers were thought of well enough by the Angels to be selected fairly high -- and was traded in 2010 (along with Joe Saunders, Rafael Rodriguez and a player to be named later who turned out to be Tyler Skaggs) to Arizona for Dan Haren. As we could say throughout this piece: Hindsight is 20/20. Haren did perform well for the Angels.
4. New York Mets
No-Moves Power Rating: 86.8
Hitting rank: 5
Fielding rank: 28
Rotation rank: 12
Bullpen rank: 13
Lineup: 1. Jeff McNeil (LF), 2. Daniel Murphy (2B), 3. Michael Conforto (RF), 4. Nelson Cruz (DH), 5. Pete Alonso (1B), 6. Wilmer Flores (3B), 7. Brandon Nimmo (CF), 8. Amed Rosario (SS), 9. Tomas Nido (C)
Rotation: Jacob deGrom, Jose Quintana, Steven Matz, Michael Fulmer, Matt Harvey
Bullpen: Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, Collin McHugh, Yusmeiro Petit
I'm not going to lie: Despite working as a (mostly) baseball writer in Chicago for a decade, where Quintana has spent his entire big league career, I had forgotten that he actually began his professional career in the Mets organization. He got into some trouble a long time ago and was suspended -- he was 17 when he signed -- ended up with the Yankees and after failing to break through there, was picked up by the White Sox. Cruz also was 17 when he originally signed with the Mets, way back in 1998. If Cruz was born on the day he was signed by the Mets, he would now be old enough to drink legally in the States. He was dealt by New York to Oakland in 2000 for Jorge Velandia, who has been out of baseball for a full decade.
5. Boston Red Sox
No-Moves Power Rating: 86.1
Hitting rank: 6
Fielding rank: 11
Rotation rank: 27
Bullpen rank: 1
Lineup: 1. Mookie Betts (RF), 2. Andrew Benintendi (LF), 3. Rafael Devers (3B), 4. Anthony Rizzo (1B), 5. Xander Bogaerts (SS), 6. Yoan Moncada (2B), 7. Michael Chavis (DH), 8. Christian Vazquez (C), 9. Jackie Bradley Jr. (CF)
Rotation: Frankie Montas, Jon Lester, Anibal Sanchez, Clay Buchholz, Michael Kopech
Bullpen: Kirby Yates, Brandon Workman, Matt Barnes, Ryan Pressly
How bittersweet is this grouping for the Red Sox, especially right now? Not only is Betts back on top of the lineup, but now he has Anthony Rizzo behind him hitting cleanup. The lineup is so deep that emerging star Yoan Moncada is hitting sixth. Boston doesn't have a huge pool of currently successful relievers that it identified, but the top of its pool is electric enough to give the Red Sox the top-rated bullpen in these rankings. The rotation is just so-so, and to get five recognizable names in there, I had to pluck Buchholz, a free agent who will likely end up with a club sometime this spring. (The Red Sox could actually be a fit.)
6. Miami Marlins
No-Moves Power Rating: 85.7
Hitting rank: 3
Fielding rank: 24
Rotation rank: 23
Bullpen rank: 16
Lineup: 1. Brian Anderson (3B), 2. Christian Yelich (RF), 3. J.T. Realmuto (C), 4. Giancarlo Stanton (DH), 5. Marcell Ozuna (LF), 6. Miguel Cabrera (1B), 7. Mark Canha (CF), 8. Austin Nola (2B), 9. Colin Moran (SS)
Rotation: Andrew Heaney, Trevor Williams, Chris Paddack, Jason Vargas, Domingo German
Bullpen: Brad Hand, Jose Urena, Nick Wittgren, Steve Cishek
The presence of Miguel Cabrera in conjunction with the heart of the recently dismantled Marlins is fun, though in reality if he were part of the roster we see above, there would be articles about how he and his contract were holding the Marlins back. Miggy's last big season was 2016, when Yelich, Ozuna, Stanton and Realmuto were all just coming into their own. So there would have been a little overlap. That group finished 79-82. As in real life, the outlook for the reconstituted Marlins would improve in ways tangible and intangible if not for the early death of Jose Fernandez. But that 2016 club featured him atop a rotation that otherwise was a patchwork group. Also, I couldn't come up with a viable shortstop here, so Moran gets the nod even though he has played just one game at that spot in the majors. That would be a problem.
7. Washington Nationals
No-Moves Power Rating: 85.2
Hitting rank: 7
Fielding rank: 17
Rotation rank: 5
Bullpen rank: 22
Lineup: 1. Ian Desmond (2B), 2. Juan Soto (LF), 3. Anthony Rendon (3B), 4. Bryce Harper (RF), 5. Ryan Zimmerman (1B), 6. Steven Souza Jr. (DH), 7. Victor Robles (CF), 8. Carter Kieboom (SS), 9. Pedro Severino (C)
Rotation: Stephen Strasburg, Lucas Giolito, Robbie Ray, Reynaldo Lopez, Jesus Luzardo
Bullpen: Craig Stammen, Wander Suero, Austin Voth, Brad Peacock
The real Nationals feature a fierce starting rotation and so do the reconstituted Nats, though the names are entirely different around Stephen Strasburg. Collectively, the raw stuff of this quintet rivals its real-life counterparts, though the track records aren't nearly as strong. In the lineup, you can't help but fixate on the core trio of Soto, Rendon and Harper, who really did intersect in 2018 before Harper left for the Phillies. Now Rendon is gone too, leaving just Soto. Someday, we may look at the 2018 Nats in the same way we look at the early-2010s Oklahoma City Thunder. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden were really all on the same team at the same time?
8. Chicago Cubs
No-Moves Power Rating: 84.4
Hitting rank: 2
Fielding rank: 18
Rotation rank: 30
Bullpen rank: 27
Lineup: 1. DJ LeMahieu (2B), 2. Kris Bryant (CF), 3. Gleyber Torres (1B), 4. Javier Baez (SS), 5. Josh Donaldson (3B), 6. Jorge Soler (DH), 7. Eloy Jimenez (RF), 8. Kyle Schwarber (LF), 9. Willson Contreras (C)
Rotation: Jeff Samardzija, Dylan Cease, Andrew Cashner, Rich Hill, Adbert Alzolay
Bullpen: Felix Pena, Blake Parker, Duane Underwood Jr., Jerry Blevins
This exercise only underscores what we already know about the recent Cubs: They did a banner job of identifying impact position players and whiffed on just about every pitcher they brought into the organization. Bringing Cease back into the fold barely changes that outlook, and I had to really stretch credulity to construct a bullpen. And yet ... that lineup is eye-popping, even if an outfield defense of Schwarber, Bryant and Jimenez would draw comparisons to the Cubs' 1953 outfield of Ralph Kiner, Frank Baumholtz and Hank Sauer. Look at the depth of an order topped by LeMahieu. You've got Soler hitting sixth, Jimenez seventh and Contreras -- a fine hitting catcher -- batting ninth. And this is with a DH, which of course the Cubs wouldn't get to use very often. Maybe they could petition to swap leagues with the White Sox.
9. Pittsburgh Pirates
No-Moves Power Rating: 83.7
Hitting rank: 8
Fielding rank: 30
Rotation rank: 2
Bullpen rank: 23
Lineup: 1. Andrew McCutchen (LF), 2. Austin Meadows (RF), 3. Starling Marte (CF), 4. Josh Bell (1B), 5. Gregory Polanco (DH), 6. Neil Walker (3B), 7. Adam Frazier (2B), 8. Kevin Newman (SS), 9. Jacob Stallings (C)
Rotation: Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow, Mitch Keller, Clay Holmes, Colten Brewer
Bullpen: Tony Watson, Justin Wilson, Jared Hughes, Zach Duke
The Pirates' rotation rank is misleading because in Cole and Glasnow, you've got two Cy Young candidates propping up the ratings, which are based on the five-man groups you see here. Keller remains more promise than production and the presence of Holmes and Brewer speaks to the lack of depth Pittsburgh has produced in this area. I could have dipped deeper to bring back Shane Baz, who was sent to the Rays along with Meadows and Glasnow in a horrific trade, and is a top-100 prospect. But it's unclear he'll rise to the majors this season, so that would be breaching my own guidelines. As for the lineup, it's not bad even if McCutchen and Walker are beyond their primes. And it would be great to see Cutch back in black and yellow.
10. Atlanta Braves
No-Moves Power Rating: 82.9
Hitting rank: 11
Fielding rank: 1
Rotation rank: 9
Bullpen rank: 14
Lineup: 1. Ronald Acuna Jr. (CF), 2. Ozzie Albies (2B), 3. Freddie Freeman (1B), 4. Austin Riley (DH), 5. Jason Heyward (RF), 6. Elvis Andrus (3B), 7. Andrelton Simmons (SS), 8. Tyler Flowers (C), 9. Nick Ahmed (LF)
Rotation: Mike Minor, Charlie Morton, Mike Soroka, Julio Teheran, Adam Wainwright
Bullpen: Craig Kimbrel, Alex Wood, Jonny Venters, A.J. Minter
The Braves' roster was a strange one to construct. In Andrus, Simmons, Albies and Ahmed, it was overwhelmed with good-to-great glove men in the middle of the infield. Yet they are all among the nine best position players Atlanta would have if they all came back together. So I have fanned them out accordingly. The offensive fit would be off -- Ahmed in left field? -- but that No. 1 defensive rating might well understate the Braves' proficiency in that area with this grouping.
11. Cincinnati Reds
No-Moves Power Rating: 81.9
Hitting rank: 10
Fielding rank: 6
Rotation rank: 29
Bullpen rank: 3
Lineup: 1. Shogo Akiyama (CF), 2. Justin Turner (2B), 3. Joey Votto (1B), 4. Yasmani Grandal (C), 5. Didi Gregorius (SS), 6. Aristides Aquino (RF), 7. Nick Senzel (LF), 8. Todd Frazier (3B), 9. Jesse Winker (DH)
Rotation: Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey, Tyler Mahle, Sal Romano
Bullpen: Aroldis Chapman, Raisel Iglesias, Amir Garrett, Robert Stephenson
The Reds would recover Grandal, Turner and Gregorius, giving them a nice lineup. If we had done this exercise in previous years, when players like Billy Hamilton and Jay Bruce were still producing at a high level, not to mention vintage Votto, it would have looked even better. At the same time, we know that the Reds have had a tough time turning their pitching prospects into big league producers, and that is reflected here. While Cincinnati's real-life pitching outlook for 2020 is rosy as all get out, Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer, Wade Miley and Anthony Descalfani all came from other organizations.
11. Philadelphia Phillies
No-Moves Power Rating: 81.9
Hitting rank: 26
Fielding rank: 29
Rotation rank: 3
Bullpen rank: 4
Lineup: 1. Jonathan Villar (2B), 2. Cesar Hernandez (LF), 3. Maikel Franco (DH), 4. Rhys Hoskins (1B), 5. Domingo Santana (RF), 6. Scott Kingery (CF), 7. J.P. Crawford (3B), 8. Jorge Alfaro (C), 9. Freddy Galvis (SS)
Rotation: Aaron Nola, Carlos Carrasco, Cole Hamels, J.A. Happ, Sixto Sanchez
Bullpen: Ken Giles, Hector Neris, Seranthony Dominguez, Jake Diekman
The Phillies were another odd-fitting group, without a viable regular outfield. So I had to move some infielders out of position. The rotation on the other hand looks better than the real-life Phils, even with Hamels and Happ getting long in the tooth and this perhaps representing an optimistic timeline for Sanchez's arrival with the Marlins. It's a nice bullpen group too, especially if Dominguez regains his dominant form.
13. St. Louis Cardinals
No-Moves Power Rating: 81.6
Hitting rank: 16
Fielding rank: 2
Rotation rank: 15
Bullpen rank: 19
Lineup: 1. Tommy Edman (LF), 2. Tommy Pham (CF), 3. David Peralta (RF), 4. Luke Voit (1B), 5. Albert Pujols (DH), 6. Matt Carpenter (3B), 7. Yadier Molina (C), 8. Paul DeJong (SS), 9. Kolten Wong (2B)
Rotation: Marco Gonzales, Jack Flaherty, Lance Lynn, Sandy Alcantara, Dakota Hudson
Bullpen: Carlos Martinez, Adam Ottavino, Joe Kelly, Jordan Hicks
Here's a comment that will seem familiar to Redbird fans: This is a solid, deep roster that is perhaps a little light in star power, at least in terms of 2020 projections. Flaherty is an exception in that regard. The bullpen as a whole doesn't project all that great, but the names in it would give me a lot of hope if I were a Cardinals fan. Beyond what you see here, the Cardinals have as much depth floating about as any organization in baseball. I could have easily formed another roster that would probably rank in the 20-25 range, with just a partial list of names including Jon Jay, Matt Adams, Donovan Solano, Aledmys Diaz, Randy Arozarena, Magneuris Sierra, Stephen Piscotty, Harrison Bader, Tyler O'Neill, Carson Kelly and Oscar Mercado. And that's just the position players.
14. Arizona Diamondbacks
No-Moves Power Rating: 81.3
Hitting rank: 24
Fielding rank: 14
Rotation rank: 4
Bullpen rank: 15
Lineup: 1. Dansby Swanson (SS), 2. Adam Eaton (RF), 3. Paul Goldschmidt (1B), 4. A.J. Pollock (DH), 5. Justin Upton (LF), 6. Jake Lamb (3B), 7. Ender Inciarte (CF), 8. Daulton Varsho (C), 9. Isan Diaz (2B)
Rotation: Max Scherzer, Trevor Bauer, Brad Keller, Chase Anderson, Wade Miley
Bullpen: Archie Bradley, Colin Poche, Bryan Shaw, Touki Toussaint
If you got all of these players together when they were having their best seasons, it would be a dynamic group. But having them together and measured by their 2020 forecasts tempers your enthusiasm. Still, you have to like a rotation headed up by Scherzer, Bauer and Keller. Catcher is a sore spot. I've gone with Varsho, a prospect who isn't a cinch to actually play in the majors this season. So I've probably broken my rules here, but someone had to catch.
15. Minnesota Twins
No-Moves Power Rating: 80.0
Hitting rank: 14
Fielding rank: 20
Rotation rank: 17
Bullpen rank: 5
Lineup: 1. Max Kepler (RF), 2. Luis Arraez (3B), 3. Eddie Rosario (LF), 4. Miguel Sano (DH), 5. Mitch Garver (C), 6. Brian Dozier (2B), 7. Jorge Polanco (SS), 8. Niko Goodrum (1B), 9. Byron Buxton (CF)
Rotation: Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Randy Dobnak, Lewis Thorpe, Dereck Rodriguez
Bullpen: Liam Hendriks, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Anthony Swarzak
There is a reason the Twins were scouring the market for starting pitchers this winter. The organization has not been very good at spotting them in the amateur ranks over the past few years. The projections of the five I've listed here are OK, and Berrios of course is a bona fide rotation fixture. But there wasn't much to choose from behind these players. The bullpen on the other hand looks dynamic, given what Hendricks has turned into with the A's.
16. Tampa Bay Rays
No-Moves Power Rating: 79.5
Hitting rank: 20
Fielding rank: 10
Rotation rank: 8
Bullpen rank: 24
Lineup: 1. Brandon Lowe (2B), 2. Tim Beckham (SS), 3. Nate Lowe (1B), 4. Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (DH), 5. Evan Longoria (3B), 6. Michael Brosseau (RF), 7. Jake Fraley (LF), 8. Omar Narvaez (C), 9. Kevin Kiermaier (CF)
Rotation: German Marquez, Alex Cobb, Blake Snell, David Price, Merrill Kelly
Bullpen: Alex Colome, Diego Castillo, Wade Davis, Jose Alvarado
The Rays have Baseball America's coveted No. 1 organizational rating entering the season after ranking second last year. So if I broke my rules and accelerated the graduations of Wander Franco, among others, the lineup would look a little more exciting, and it's likely to be more dynamic if we repeat this piece in the years ahead. What this exercise underscored for me about the Rays is just how good they've been at identifying talent in other organizations, moving to acquire it and developing that talent once they have it. Among the 16 Rays who put up at least 1 bWAR last season, only Kiermaier, Brandon Lowe, Snell and Yonny Chirinos began their professional careers in the organization.
17. Cleveland Indians
No-Moves Power Rating: 79.2
Hitting rank: 13
Fielding rank: 7
Rotation rank: 16
Bullpen rank: 29
Lineup: 1. Francisco Lindor (SS), 2. Jose Ramirez (2B), 3. Shin-Soo Choo (LF), 4. Jesus Aguilar (DH), 5. Yandy Diaz (1B), 6. Gio Urshela (3B), 7. Anthony Santander (RF), 8. Francisco Mejia (C), 9. Jason Kipnis (CF)
Rotation: Shane Bieber, Chris Archer, Aaron Civale, Justus Sheffield, Zach Plesac
Bullpen: Cody Allen, Drew Pomeranz, Hector Rondon, Adam Plutko
For all the Indians' success in recent years, they have had more than their fair share of players who took giant leaps forward after Cleveland moved them or allowed them to leave. Aguilar, Diaz, Urshela, Archer and Rondon all qualify for that list. The other thing that jumps out is the weak bullpen. The Indians had a great bullpen for most of their recent run of contention, but beyond Allen at his peak, those relief staffs were dominated by acquired players.
18. Toronto Blue Jays
No-Moves Power Rating: 78.7
Hitting rank: 22
Fielding rank: 16
Rotation rank: 10
Bullpen rank: 8
Lineup: 1. Cavan Biggio (RF), 2. Bo Bichette (SS), 3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B), 4. Eric Thames (1B), 5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (LF), 6. Rowdy Tellez (DH), 7. Yan Gomes (C), 8. Franklin Barreto (2B), 9. Kevin Pillar (CF)
Rotation: Noah Syndergaard, Matthew Boyd, Marcus Stroman, Joe Musgrove, Anthony DeSclafani
Bullpen: Roberto Osuna, Shun Yamaguchi, Ryan Tepera, Miguel Castro
This pitching staff would shape up nicely entering the season to come. And while the lineup would lag in projections, the Blue Jays would also have the considerable upside that comes with featuring Biggio, Bichette, Guerrero and Gurriel. The mid-2010s run of success for Toronto was great, but it was propelled by acquired talents at its foundation -- Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista all began elsewhere.
19. Chicago White Sox
No-Moves Power Rating: 78.5
Hitting rank: 15
Fielding rank: 22
Rotation rank: 13
Bullpen rank: 25
Lineup: 1. Marcus Semien (SS), 2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (3B), 3. Luis Robert (CF), 4. Jose Abreu (1B), 5. Jose Martinez (RF), 6. Eduardo Escobar (LF), 7. Tim Anderson (DH), 8. Zack Collins (C), 9. Nick Madrigal (2B)
Rotation: Chris Sale, Chris Bassitt, Gio Gonzalez, Clayton Richard, Carlos Rodon
Bullpen: Daniel Hudson, Chris Devenski, Aaron Bummer, Jace Fry
The White Sox haven't done a great job of identifying arms, except the ones they've acquired in trade, such as Michael Kopech, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez. The names on top of this lineup, however, will likely haunt the ChiSox for a long, long time, even if the rising current club enters a contention phase. The White Sox liked Semien well enough to draft him twice, including in the sixth round in 2011. He was dealt to Oakland during the 2014 winter meetings in a multiplayer trade that brought back Jeff Samardzija. Meanwhile, Tatis was famously sent to San Diego in 2016 along with Erik Johnson in exchange for James Shields.
20. Baltimore Orioles
No-Moves Power Rating: 78.4
Hitting rank: 18
Fielding rank: 23
Rotation rank: 22
Bullpen rank: 2
Lineup: 1. Mike Yastrzemski (CF), 2. Nick Markakis (RF), 3. Manny Machado (SS), 4. Trey Mancini (LF), 5. Christian Walker (1B), 6. Jonathan Schoop (2B), 7. Austin Hays (DH), 8. Matt Wieters (C), 9. Stevie Wilkerson (3B)
Rotation: Eduardo Rodriguez, John Means, Dylan Bundy, Jake Arrieta, Kevin Gausman
Bullpen: Josh Hader, Hunter Harvey, Mychal Givens, Zack Britton
The nature of this exercise is to spread parity across the majors. The differences in organizational scouting success matter and they are amplified as players progress through the majors and transactions start to happen. We see this all the time. A team doesn't see upside for the group it has, so it trades players who can help teams closer to contention in exchange for players who can help down the line. That's a temporary hit on parity, which is something that should be measured only in multiseason windows. This exercise removes all of those kinds of deals. The Orioles are early in the rebuilding part of their own cycle right now, so almost anything would look better than what Baltimore has in spring training at the moment. That said, this stand-pat version of the Orioles could contend, if they could cobble enough depth for the position group and if their defensive strategies helped back up a decent starting staff that would be light on strikeouts. The offense would feature a lot of power -- eighth in park-neutral isolated power, per these projections. And the bullpen has the potential to be flat-out vicious.
21. New York Yankees
No-Moves Power Rating: 78.2
Hitting rank: 21
Fielding rank: 27
Rotation rank: 26
Bullpen rank: 11
Lineup: 1. Brett Gardner (CF), 2. Robinson Cano (2B), 3. Miguel Andujar (1B), 4. Aaron Judge (RF), 5. Gary Sanchez (C), 6. Melky Cabrera (DH), 7. Nick Solak (3B), 8. Ben Gamel (LF), 9. Jorge Mateo (SS)
Rotation: Masahiro Tanaka, Caleb Smith, Luis Severino, Ivan Nova, Jordan Montgomery
Bullpen: Shane Greene, Giovanny Gallegos, Dellin Betances, Tommy Kahnle
For me, the Yankees were the biggest surprise in these rankings. Much has been written and discussed about the Yankees' decision to bulk up their scouting and development operations a few years ago. But in terms of collective 2020 forecasts, the reconstituted Yankees just don't look that great and, in fact, I had to move players around positionally to fill out a roster and bulk up playing time projections for non-regulars like Solak and Gamel. Judge, Sanchez, Andujar, Tanaka and Severino are all original Yankees and remain key parts of the team's core. Gardner, once he re-signed over the winter, looks like a career Yankee as well. But New York has heavily augmented its roster with players from outside the organization. Even Gleyber Torres, who might well end up spending his entire big league career with the Yankees, was acquired from the Cubs before reaching the majors.
21. Colorado Rockies
No-Moves Power Rating: 78.2
Hitting rank: 25
Fielding rank: 8
Rotation rank: 19
Bullpen rank: 6
Lineup: 1. Dexter Fowler (CF), 2. Charlie Blackmon (RF), 3. Nolan Arenado (3B), 4. Trevor Story (SS), 5. Corey Dickerson (LF), 6. Mike Tauchman (1B), 7. Tom Murphy (C), 8. David Dahl (DH), 9. Ryan McMahon (2B)
Rotation: Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, Jhoulys Chacin, Tyler Anderson
Bullpen: Will Harris, Chaz Roe, Pedro Strop, Chris Martin
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The picture here isn't that different from the outlook with the real Rockies, especially since the starting rotation is very similar to what they'll deploy in 2020. There are some good names in the lineup, especially given the 2019 breakouts by Tauchman (Yankees) and Murphy (Mariners). My system doesn't really like the real 2020 Rockies lineup beyond Story, Arenado and, to a lesser extent, Dahl and Blackmon. The outlook isn't boosted that much by bringing back post-peak performers Fowler and Dickerson.
23. Texas Rangers
No-Moves Power Rating: 77.7
Hitting rank: 19
Fielding rank: 25
Rotation rank: 25
Bullpen rank: 10
Lineup: 1. Hanser Alberto (3B), 2. Jurickson Profar (SS), 3. Joey Gallo (LF), 4. Edwin Encarnacion (DH), 5. Justin Smoak (1B), 6. Nomar Mazara (RF), 7. Rougned Odor (2B), 8. Manny Pina (C), 9. Lewis Brinson (CF)
Rotation: Yu Darvish, Tanner Roark, Kyle Hendricks, Martin Perez, Derek Holland
Bullpen: Jose Leclerc, Keone Kela, Alex Claudio, Luke Jackson
From the positional player standpoint, the Rangers have been stuck in a potential-over-production paradigm for a couple of seasons. That doesn't change much if you return Mazara, Profar and Brinson to the fold. Alberto, who no one was paying any attention to a year ago at this time, now looks like a standout after emerging in Baltimore last season. Cubs fans will recognize the bright lights of the reconstituted Rangers rotation, though the filler in that group is comprised of recognizable players whose best seasons are probably behind them. The bullpen looks strong and potentially more than that if Leclerc performs closer to his 2018 line than he did in 2019.
24. Milwaukee Brewers
No-Moves Power Rating: 77.5
Hitting rank: 12
Fielding rank: 19
Rotation rank: 21
Bullpen rank: 12
Lineup: 1. Lorenzo Cain (CF), 2. Michael Brantley (LF), 3. Mitch Haniger (RF), 4. Khris Davis (DH), 5. Ryan Braun (1B), 6. Keston Hiura (2B), 7. Scooter Gennett (3B), 8. Jonathan Lucroy (C), 9. Orlando Arcia (SS)
Rotation: Mike Fiers, Brandon Woodruff, Jake Odorizzi, Jordan Yamamoto, Jimmy Nelson
Bullpen: Nick Anderson, Brent Suter, Corbin Burnes, Jeremy Jeffress
While the Brewers slot way down here at No. 24 and aren't elite in any one category, I find this a strangely appealing group. I'd like to see what Craig Counsell could do with it, even though his depth wouldn't be what he has had at his disposal in recent seasons. He'd likely be working under a different general manager than David Stearns. Stripped of the option to make a couple of low-profile, micro upgrades with moves every week, it seems like Stearns would have lost interest by now.
24. San Diego Padres
No-Moves Power Rating: 77.5
Hitting rank: 28
Fielding rank: 13
Rotation rank: 6
Bullpen rank: 26
Lineup: 1. Trea Turner (SS), 2. Luis Urias (2B), 3. Hunter Renfroe (RF), 4. Franmil Reyes (DH), 5. Franchy Cordero (LF), 6. Jake Bauers (1B), 7. Eric Sogard (3B), 8. Austin Hedges (C), 9. Mallex Smith (CF)
Rotation: Miles Mikolas, Corey Kluber, Joey Lucchesi, Max Fried, Dinelson Lamet
Bullpen: Brandon Kintzler, Adam Cimber, Brad Brach, MacKenzie Gore
While the pitching staff has some promise, you have to like the real-life Padres better than this reconstituted version. There just isn't a lot of star impact in the lineup. Turner is a star-level shortstop, but in real life, the Padres have Tatis manning that position. It's probably good that A.J. Preller has been aggressive at building his roster with acquired talent. Of course, like the Rays, the Padres are loaded in terms of minor league talent, and over the next couple of years, looking at organizations in this manner could move San Diego way up the pecking order.
26. Detroit Tigers
No-Moves Power Rating: 77.4
Hitting rank: 27
Fielding rank: 21
Rotation rank: 14
Bullpen rank: 18
Lineup: 1. Cameron Maybin (CF), 2. Matt Joyce (1B), 3. Nicholas Castellanos (DH), 4. Eugenio Suarez (3B), 5. Avisail Garcia (RF), 6. Willy Adames (SS), 7. Christin Stewart (LF), 8. Alex Avila (C), 9. Devon Travis (2B)
Rotation: Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Spencer Turnbull, Drew Smyly, Alex Faedo
Bullpen: Joe Jimenez, Andrew Miller, Corey Knebel, Chad Green
While it doesn't look great in terms of the 2020 outlook, you can see where this group might have had some interesting seasons in years past. The starting pitcher options were awfully shallow, as evidenced by Faedo's inclusion.
27. Seattle Mariners
No-Moves Power Rating: 75.4
Hitting rank: 23
Fielding rank: 15
Rotation rank: 28
Bullpen rank: 9
Lineup: 1. Chris Taylor (SS), 2. Ketel Marte (CF), 3. Kyle Seager (3B), 4. Ji-Man Choi (DH), 5. Evan White (1B), 6. Asdrubal Cabrera (2B), 7. Tyler O'Neill (RF), 8. Kyle Lewis (LF), 9. Mike Zunino (C)
Rotation: James Paxton, Yusei Kikuchi, Michael Pineda, Felix Hernandez, Taijuan Walker
Bullpen: Edwin Diaz, Emilio Pagan, Ryan Yarbrough, Roenis Elias
I actually really like this group, which has been de-Dipoto'd. The weak spot is the rotation, but all of those pitchers have had good seasons, though Kikuchi's came in Japan. And the bullpen is potentially sweet, if Diaz bounces back. Whether it would actually work is an open question, but in any event, this is kind of what Seattle would look like if Jerry Dipoto were not such a manic trader.
28. San Francisco Giants
No-Moves Power Rating: 73.8
Hitting rank: 30
Fielding rank: 4
Rotation rank: 11
Bullpen rank: 30
Lineup: 1. Bryan Reynolds (LF), 2. Steven Duggar (CF), 3. Buster Posey (C), 4. Brandon Belt (1B), 5. Austin Slater (RF), 6. Brandon Crawford (SS), 7. Matt Duffy (3B), 8. Adam Duvall (DH), 9. Joe Panik (2B)
Rotation: Madison Bumgarner, Luis Castillo, Zack Wheeler, Tyler Beede, Jonathan Loaisiga
Bullpen: Sergio Romo, Kyle Crick, Francisco Liriano, Joe Biagini
Even through the lens of 2020 projections, the pillars of the championship Giants -- starting pitching and defense -- stand strong. But it's kind of like the Parthenon -- the pillars are still standing, but the rest of the edifice has crumbled. Still, you can see where both the lineup and bullpen would have been effective in years past. That was a truly nice run the San Francisco organization put together.
29. Kansas City Royals
No-Moves Power Rating: 73.5
Hitting rank: 29
Fielding rank: 12
Rotation rank: 18
Bullpen rank: 28
Lineup: 1. Whit Merrifield (2B), 2. Adalberto Mondesi (SS), 3. Hunter Dozier (DH), 4. Mike Moustakas (3B), 5. Eric Hosmer (1B), 6. Salvador Perez (C), 7. Alex Gordon (LF), 8. Wil Myers (RF), 9. Jarrod Dyson (CF)
Rotation: Zack Greinke, Danny Duffy, Jakob Junis, Sean Manaea, Mike Montgomery
Bullpen: Greg Holland, Glenn Sparkman, Tim Hill, Kelvin Herrera
Most of what I just wrote about the Giants applies to their 2014 World Series opponents. It's usually fun to see a star player returned to his original context. I'm not sure I see it that way with Greinke, however, because the Royals acquired Lorenzo Cain from Milwaukee for him. Those pennant winners in 2014 and 2015 don't happen without Cain. It is fun to see Moose and Hos together again, even if that doesn't do much to bolster the reconstituted Royals' 2020 projection.
30. Oakland Athletics
No-Moves Power Rating: 73.3
Hitting rank: 17
Fielding rank: 3
Rotation rank: 24
Bullpen rank: 21
Lineup: 1. Addison Russell (SS), 2. Max Muncy (2B), 3. Matt Chapman (3B), 4. Matt Olson (1B), 5. Yoenis Cespedes (CF), 6. Renato Nunez (DH), 7. Kurt Suzuki (C), 8. Chad Pinder (LF), 9. Billy McKinney (RF)
Rotation: Sonny Gray, Tyson Ross, A.J. Puk, Trevor Cahill, Dylan Covey
Bullpen: Sean Doolittle, Blake Treinen, Brandon Bailey, Lou Trivino
Stripped of their ability to fill out their roster by targeting undervalued talents from other organizations, the A's sink to the reconstituted cellar. The A's have generally done well in the first round of recent drafts. But you can see their organizational approach at play with this list. That includes the practice of parlaying young-ish players into even more young players from the outside, or leveraging them to augment short-term goals. Russell, McKinney, Gray and Doolittle were all Oakland first-rounders who eventually turned into trade fodder. Olson, Chapman and Puk were other first-round hits who are now part of the Oakland core.